| Hi all,
Anybody has a proper short call with proper sl......................... and tgt ......... time may be say 5-8 months... for tgt ???????? anything like that...... later we will know is it the gold really bullish or bearish......
Regards, Ganesh --- On Sat, 28/11/09, KKP_Investor <kkpatel1924@gmail.com> wrote:
From: KKP_Investor <kkpatel1924@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor] Gold Will Collapse Like Oil Did in 2008: By: Daryl Guppy
To: Technical-Investor@yahoogroups.com
Date: Saturday, 28 November, 2009, 5:52 AM
Game is on......You do have a habit of picking things apart and dissecting it. This must be your game to prove your point. This is a forum to make money, not to be right or wrong. The means is not the end here. But, I like people who are awake to challenges.
Gold and Oil are not being compared to equate them. They are being compared as two commodities that rose up on speculation and Gold is joining the party as if it is equal to Oil around $110-$130......That is all. Don't take it literally. So, don't be an analyst about everything. Macro levels are good enough, and that all the below says.
If people are going to buy gold at $3000, we shall see the demand coming from people pulling money by selling their flats. You know the future as much as I do, so I would say that real estate will crash, and gold will go up......How's that for a bogus argument saying consumers will buy at $3000 per ounce! Keyboard worked well this time# Market is topping now to give you much more satisfaction, since you wanted it to go down, and you want gold to go up. With your silver move today, you are talking ONE SIDED. Market is not about what you want, it is reacting to what it does, and then it does something different. I'm holding gold coins and silver coins from the time gold was $292, $366, $419 and $450. I am a bigger believer in Gold than most people, but I will be holding it for longer than most people on this forum. Bought MS62/MS63 coins in Feb'2008, and if it goes down again, I will buy more of the same 'rare' coins.
Open mind is someone who listens to the views, does not strectch their hands out and publicly say "Yawn, I'm bored". You could not handle the Guppy article or Balaji's comments multiple times, and I thought enough is enough. Keep your mind OPEN to BOTH SIDES, and if there are support articles to why BSE should go to 30K or Gold to $500, so be it. Read it, or Delete it or just Ignore it. Don't sent out a message, I'm bored. Since that does makes you suitable for some other forums where people hit others with arrows and swear.
So, markets have a bit more to run - Keep the patience. We are shopping like crazy in the US, and showing that money is still in the pockets of lots of people. Economy will falter in Jan-Mar or Jan-Jun. Gold will have a field day, but for now, it has to cool off, if it wants to go higher. Otherwise, it is rising exponentially, and what Guppy said will happen. I have too much profits on Gold to lose (Rs10L+ of profits investing in Indian ETFs, which is apart from my physicial holding here), to get carried away with yawns, or arguments.
Lets make money, and use our energy to not say who is right and who is wrong, but to fill the wallets......That is my purpose here on this forum. The day it is not satisfied as a primary objective, you will not hear from me on this forum. Of course, I am always willing to help someone new who is asking questions, and thankful to people posting ideas/thoughts/articles, since we have a wide range of investors on this board, as well as others.
KKP
Sniper Trader wrote: Ok my sleep is gone now.
Lets pick your argument apart
All that happened in Oil last year is not enough to teach some folks a lesson...... $200 Oil!!!!!! There will not be any cars on US Highways. Same way, who is going to buy gold for any useful purpose at $3000 per ounce.
If you are equating gold with oil.. you are sadly mistaken. Gold is a store of wealth..oil isnt. Oil is a commodity and thats what it will be. Also, gold has a longer history than oil when it comes to its use. Hit the history books! Do you want a few.. i can name them.
Same way, who is going to buy gold for any useful purpose at $3000 per ounce. Central banks for starters.... and not to forget the demand from gold consumers (India/China etc) The USEFUL PURPOSE is store of wealth. Curious..how would you define USEFUL PURPOSE anyways ?
Things need to be an orderly move, and that is all Guppy and others are trying to prove. Oh ya ? Really ? What about the rise in the equity mkts.. are they orderly ? Shouldn't one be calling for a top there? Hey, i am using the same logic.
Bud, this is a forum where someone posts what Mr Guppy thought, and instead of keeping an open mind about the topping pattern, you are telling us you are bored.
The way i would define open mind is - One has to be open to both sides of the argument. So, i am bored...you seem not be to OPEN to that idea... Am i missing something here?
No one has seen the exactness of the future, but we are all trying hard to paint it (foggily). Precisely my point
Sorry, if you don't like the above, but, if you can't say anything valuable, learn to use the 'delete' key. Hope you still kept that one on the keyboard, and did'nt chew it out in your boredom!!!!!
You see, i have a open mind unlike some others. I just learnt how to use the delete key thanks. While on learning...i would suggest that typing in 5 exclamation marks do not emphasize your point anymore than it would have ...if you used just one. Or maybe its someone else's keyboard that is faulty?
Are you game yet?
On Sat, Nov 28, 2009 at 9:02 AM, KKP_Investor <kkpatel1924@ gmail.com> wrote: Wow Sniper, you need stimulating debates every hour/day.... ..You should join Moneycontrol. com debates. You will get plenty of replies from there, some good and some not so good. But, it will keep you going. All that happened in Oil last year is not enough to teach some folks a lesson...... $200 Oil!!!!!! There will not be any cars on US Highways. Same way, who is going to buy gold for any useful purpose at $3000 per ounce. Things need to be an orderly move, and that is all Guppy and others are trying to prove.
Bud, this is a forum where someone posts what Mr Guppy thought, and instead of keeping an open mind about the topping pattern, you are telling us you are bored.
Well, what do you think I am doing......Getting bored to reply to your no-content and single sided messages about Topping in Dow, S&P, US going down etc. But, we don't ask for more stimulating messages from you. We read, understand and appreciate that it is your view and keep going to see who is right and how right is he/she. No one has seen the exactness of the future, but we are all trying hard to paint it (foggily).
So, go back to sleep until you see an exciting title, or ignore this title and ask a few loaded questions about "Why did the couple enter the party with the President of India, and join the debate". You and hundreds of blogs can have a field day 'speculating'.
Sorry, if you don't like the above, but, if you can't say anything valuable, learn to use the 'delete' key. Hope you still kept that one on the keyboard, and did'nt chew it out in your boredom!!!!!
Balaji, keep posting articles.... ..I love what Guppy does and have to say, since I follow his 'MA Band' methodology very closely and trade off it.
KKP
Sniper Trader wrote: No.. i was wide and awake till i read this thread. I will revisit this thread after x days.. and i m sure i will be still hearing about bubbles/moon shots and busts in gold.
I will tell you what is overbought - S&P/Dow. Have you taken a close at it lately ?
Yes,,, i m still yawing.. throw me some good stuff we can debate on...which ignites my interest.
PS: Yes.. i did buy some silver at lower levels yday. On Sat, Nov 28, 2009 at 7:52 AM, KKP_Investor <kkpatel1924@ gmail.com> wrote: Sniper Trader, you must have made too many trades last night on Forex and are still sleepy from you big yawns......Look at the OB condition on any chart in Gold. That is what we are talking about and doing a bit of anticipatory thoughts. Anticipatory thoughts by technicians are a bit dangerous, but we can always put in terms of the curling factor coming from W%R, RSI, MFI and Fast-Stoc.
You might be anticipating Pluto and don't like us talking about the Moon for Gold. Let us know!
KKP
Sniper Trader wrote: Yawnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn nnn...... ......... ......
Is there anything new ppl can contribute.. .besides talking about moon and bubble when it comes to gold ? On Sat, Nov 28, 2009 at 1:52 AM, KKP_Investor <kkpatel1924@ gmail.com> wrote: Thanks Balaji for the 'warning shot'. I feel that anytime there is movement that is going on with a single sided direction, like in Gold, it is worth considering a 'sell' as opposed to a buy. Keep the finger on the Sell Trigger, and forget the feeling of left out for now. We are somewhere in the neighborhood of Jul'07 to Jan'08 timeframe of the Equity market when it comes to the Gold market. This does not mean I am forecasting a crash, but a definite correction so that we can indeed go to $2000+ So, S.T. it is topping, and LT it is Bullish. Picture abhi baaki hai, dosto!!!!!!
Now, in my mind it is not a final sell signal since some of the euphoric movement has not technically happened, but it is very close. I would venture to say that we will see that in my broad time frame of 1 month (by end of this year) to Jun'2010. I have a large amount of physical and logical gold holding and keeping a very close eye on it since I do not want my Rs10L+ of profits to vanish in a few days, but I truly feel that the complexity of US Economic results + $ Index (relative to many currencies and DXY) + Inflationary pressures in hot economies + Demand/Supply of Gold/Silver + Special events (Dubai, 9/11 etc) + IndoChina Purchases (IMF + Public) + Next move by China on Yuan (or announcement thereof) has/can/will affect the gold. There is speculation factor already in it, like we had with Oil from $110>$147, but, one final CNBC reported story of Gold going to $3000 will call it final Top and then a good size correction.
When that correction comes, the people who feel left out (for personal, professional, family based reasons) should get into gold. Hold a small single digit % of your portfolio in gold ALL the time. We are Indians (for the most part this has been true on this forum), and therefore, holding an asset like this is critical to our mental satisfaction.
For those in the US, please checkout BullionVault since they are giving 1 gram free to get the account started (sure it is small, but FREE GOLD is something that attracts value shoppers, and today is Black Friday). Black Friday for non-US folks is a BIG SALE event for us. This is where you have to literally stand in lines to get the product, and the early bird gets the worm! I was out there standing in line this morning at 4:30am US time to buy a 1 TeraByte Hard-Disk for $59 and GOT IT. Also got 50pack DVD-R for $4.98 and 100pack CD-R for $4.98......There were Laptops for $199 and Desktops for $199. USB 4GB Flashdrives for $4 etc. Unreal.....Just once a year it happens and anyone who can go, should go.
So, there you have it......More than gold, and much more than you asked for! Happy Friday to all.
KKP
Balaji Jayaraman wrote: Gold warning signal Yes, we are facing a "parabolic rise"….Gold will not rise to the moon..... It's not the end of the $USD Dollar (wake up people!) A lot of people will GET HURT in Gold by buying @ higher prices, just because everyone else is buying!!! When it will happen, nobody knows…..One thing I know, for sure it's not gonna send me an e-mail before it does gonna Crash for sure!!! As of now there are multiple supports for Gold… Rgds/Balaji 
| Hi All,
Gold Will Collapse Like Oil Did in 2008: By: Daryl Guppy
The gold price has moved quickly and it has developed an important new uptrend characteristic. This so-called 'parabolic' trend is a dangerous type with a high probability of a sudden collapse. The original breakout above the psychological resistance level near $1,000 was a breakout from a trading band. Using the trading band the first price target projection was near $1,080. This was achieved quickly. The same trading and projection method is used to set the next higher target. This target is near $1,160. This target has a high probability it will be achieved. The breakout above $1,000 started with the characteristics of a rally. The rally has been fulled by a number of reasons: large buying activity of central banks in particular India's Central bank, the decline in the US Dollar, and the anticipation of continued low interest rates in the U.S. among them. A strong rally breakout typically develops into a sustainable and reliable trend, characterized by retreat and rebound activity within the new up trend development. However, in the past week, the nature of the rally breakout has changed drammatically. It's no longer a normal uptrend, but best described as a parabolic trend. The parabolic trend is a curved trend line that captures the acceleration of price. The trend will eventually develop into a vertical line, which is used to define the end of the rising trend. The characteristic of the parabolic trend is that the trend collapses very rapidly when price moves to the right of the trend line. The parabolic trend line is divided into three sections: In the first section the parabolic trend is difficult to recognize. In the second section of the parabolic trend the exit signal is a close below the value of the trend line. The second section of this parabolic trend is currently developing. The third section of the parabolic trend is more dangerous. Here the exit signal is a move below the value of the parabolic trend line. Additionally, there is always a time when the price has no choice. Price will automatically move to the right of the trend line and signal the end of the trend. When this develops, the trend collapses very quickly. The plunge in the oil in 2008 after prices reached $140 was characteristic of this parabolic trend collapse. This is the risk with the gold trend. When the parabolic trend ends the gold price can move quickly towards support at $1,000. Generally the leverage impact with gold producers and explorers is about 3 to 1. This is an advantage when the gold price goes up. When the price falls this leverage works in the opposite direction and causes a substantial and rapid decline in the price of gold producers and explorers.
Thanks and Best Regards,
K.Venkatesh
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-- Plan Your Work and Work Your Plan to Get Ahead in 2009-2012... .. KKP Investor ------------ ------------ Bull Markets are Born on Pessimism, Bull Markets Grow on Skepticism, They Mature on Optimism, and Die on Euphoria - Sir John Templeton ------------ --------- --------- ------ Bear Markets are Born on Recessionism, Snowball on Momentum & Technical-Breakdown s, Mature on Eco-Political- Nightmare Talks, and Die on World-Is-Coming- To-An-End Euphoria - KKP ------------ --------- --------- --------- -------- >BUFFET: My rule is to be fearful when others are greedy,and be greedy when others are fearful. All day you wait for the pitch you like, then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. Stay dispassionate and be patient. First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold bars and predicting another Great Depression. Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is jumping in. The time to get interested is when no one else is interested. You can't buy what is popular and expect to do well. ABOVE ALL: Whatever God Does, Accept that as Good; Leave Behind ALL Other Judgements/Justific ations. ------------ --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------- Disclaimer> Do you homework for your ownself and then invest. My ideas are not advice. -- Plan Your Work and Work Your Plan to Get Ahead in 2009-2012... .. KKP Investor ------------ ------------ Bull Markets are Born on Pessimism, Bull Markets Grow on Skepticism, They Mature on Optimism, and Die on Euphoria - Sir John Templeton ------------ --------- --------- ------ Bear Markets are Born on Recessionism, Snowball on Momentum & Technical-Breakdown s, Mature on Eco-Political- Nightmare Talks, and Die on World-Is-Coming- To-An-End Euphoria - KKP ------------ --------- --------- --------- -------- >BUFFET: My rule is to be fearful when others are greedy,and be greedy when others are fearful. All day you wait for the pitch you like, then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. Stay dispassionate and be patient. First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold bars and predicting another Great Depression. Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is jumping in. The time to get interested is when no one else is interested. You can't buy what is popular and expect to do well. ABOVE ALL: Whatever God Does, Accept that as Good; Leave Behind ALL Other Judgements/Justific ations. ------------ --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------- Disclaimer> Do you homework for your ownself and then invest. My ideas are not advice. -- Plan Your Work and Work Your Plan to Get Ahead in 2009-2012... .. KKP Investor ------------ ------------ Bull Markets are Born on Pessimism, Bull Markets Grow on Skepticism, They Mature on Optimism, and Die on Euphoria - Sir John Templeton ------------ --------- --------- ------ Bear Markets are Born on Recessionism, Snowball on Momentum & Technical-Breakdown s, Mature on Eco-Political- Nightmare Talks, and Die on World-Is-Coming- To-An-End Euphoria - KKP ------------ --------- --------- --------- -------- >BUFFET: My rule is to be fearful when others are greedy,and be greedy when others are fearful. All day you wait for the pitch you like, then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. Stay dispassionate and be patient. First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold bars and predicting another Great Depression. Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is jumping in. The time to get interested is when no one else is interested. You can't buy what is popular and expect to do well. ABOVE ALL: Whatever God Does, Accept that as Good; Leave Behind ALL Other Judgements/Justific ations. ------------ --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------- Disclaimer> Do you homework for your ownself and then invest. My ideas are not advice. -- Plan Your Work and Work Your Plan to Get Ahead in 2009-2012..... KKP Investor ------------ ------------ Bull Markets are Born on Pessimism, Bull Markets Grow on Skepticism, They Mature on Optimism, and Die on Euphoria - Sir John Templeton ------------------------------------ Bear Markets are Born on Recessionism, Snowball on Momentum & Technical-Breakdowns, Mature on Eco-Political-Nightmare Talks, and Die on World-Is-Coming-To-An-End Euphoria - KKP ----------------------------------------------- >BUFFET: My rule is to be fearful when others are greedy,and be greedy when others are fearful. All day you wait for the pitch you like, then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. Stay dispassionate and be patient. First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold bars and predicting another Great Depression. Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is jumping in. The time to get interested is when no one else is interested. You can't buy what is popular and expect to do well. ABOVE ALL: Whatever God Does, Accept that as Good; Leave Behind ALL Other Judgements/Justifications. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer> Do you homework for your ownself and then invest. My ideas are not advice.
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