Sensex
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Management lies in dropping the last alphabet: manage – men. still better, drop one more alphabet: manage – me.
Samir Kumar Shah.
9830405060
Attachment(s) from samir shah
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As the markets gear up for yet another Union Budget, the mood remains sombre. With economic growth surprising on the positive, the government now faces the tough task of balancing stimulus withdrawal while maintaining growth momentum. The momentum in economic growth (CSO estimates of FY10 GDP growth at 7.2%) now calls for withdrawal of stimulus measures. The RBI has already taken the first step forward (with ~40% of the stimulus already withdrawn) in this direction. We expect the government to commence the rollback of fiscal stimulus measures by reverting excise and customs duties to the pre-crisis levels. We, however, expect continued thrust on the flagship social spending schemes (e.g. NREGS) and Bharat Nirmaan program – both of which could see a reasonable increase in allocations in the current budget. We also expect the right policy stimulus on infrastructure sector. On the reforms front, we expect a mix of rhetoric (largely on the GST and Direct Tax Code) interspersed with some action – especially around foreign ownership in insurance. Divestments have, so far, met with reasonable success and consensus expects divestments continuing into fiscal 2010. As benefits of revenue buoyancy (led by pick-up in tax collections) get offset by elevated expenditure and higher subsidies, we do not expect any significant decline in absolute borrowings by the government in FY11. We expect the Centre's fiscal deficit to decline to 5.7% of GDP (on a revised base) in FY11.
The budget is expected to be positive for the following sectors:
| Sector | Comments |
| Agri/Agri-related | With Food Security being the priority and agri inflation the priority, expect increase in allocation towards agriculture, irrigation and agri infrastructure. |
| Engineering/ | Thrust on schemes such as APDRP and RGGVY to continue and engineering companies to be key beneficiaries |
| Financials | Expect capitalization of PSU Banks to be passed during the budget. Hike in insurance FDI limit could be a key positive |
| Infrastructure | Focus on infrastructure spending to continue which will continue to drive order flows for construction companies and asset ownership opportunities for infrastructure developers. |
| Oil & Gas | Clarification on Section 80 IB deduction on Gas exploration for Pre NELP and NELP I-VII blocks |
| Real Estate | Affordable housing could be the theme for the budget |
And negative for the following
| Sector | Comments |
| Automobiles | Excise duty on small cars, 2Ws and CVs likely to be hiked by 4% |
| Cement | Excise duty concessions announced in the stimulus packages to be removed |
| FMCG | Roll back of stimulus – excise duty increase from 8% to 10% to be marginally negative |
| Telecom | Increase of MAT rate from current 16.5% could see lower reported earnings while hike in customs duty to impact future capex plans of telcos |
The bull-run in the markets through 2009 has been (temporarily) halted by rising concerns around monetary tightening and funding of the outsized fiscal deficit. The global economic scenario has also thrown up negatives around the weak fiscal position of countries in the EU and weaker-than-
--------------------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ----- IDFC - SSKI Securities Ltd / IDFC - SSKI limited. IDFC -SSKI) Disclaimer: This communication is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed to and may contain confidential and/or privileged material. If you are not the addressee or authorized to receive this mail you shall not read, use, disclose, copy, forward, or take any action based on this message or any part thereof and should inform the sender of its receipt and delete the material immediately from your computer/mailbox. The information is not warranted as to completeness or accuracy and is subject to change without notice. The recipient acknowledges that any comments, conclusions or statements made herein are those of the individual sender and do not necessarily reflect those of IDFC - SSKI. The communication does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. This communication is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject IDFC - SSKI and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Internet communications are not confirmed to be secure, error or virus-free. The sender does not accept any responsibility for any loss or damage or errors or omissions.
Attachment(s) from samir shah
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Hindalco Industries (CMP: Rs145)
Mkt Cap: Rs278bn; US$6.
Novelis has reported adjusted EBITDA of US$199m for Q3FY10, higher than our estimate of US$167m. The positive surprise underscores demand traction in a large portion of Novelis's product segments – reflected in improving business confidence by key clients (Rexam, Crown, Ball, etc). With loss making price-ceiling and derivative contracts behind, we expect significant improvement in Novelis's operating cash flows going forward. Given improving business fundamentals and better than expected run-rate on cost savings, we upgrade our FY10 and FY11 operational EBITDA estimates for Novelis by 4.6% and 5.3% respectively. We maintain our positive stance on Hindalco given the emerging visibility on strong volume growth in India, operational turnaround of Novelis, improving balance sheet health on the back of recent fund raising and higher cash flows. We maintain our Outperformer rating on Hindalco with a revised 12-month price target of Rs195 per share—an upside of 34% from the current market price.
--------------------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ----- IDFC - SSKI Securities Ltd / IDFC - SSKI limited. IDFC -SSKI) Disclaimer: This communication is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed to and may contain confidential and/or privileged material. If you are not the addressee or authorized to receive this mail you shall not read, use, disclose, copy, forward, or take any action based on this message or any part thereof and should inform the sender of its receipt and delete the material immediately from your computer/mailbox. The information is not warranted as to completeness or accuracy and is subject to change without notice. The recipient acknowledges that any comments, conclusions or statements made herein are those of the individual sender and do not necessarily reflect those of IDFC - SSKI. The communication does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. This communication is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject IDFC - SSKI and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Internet communications are not confirmed to be secure, error or virus-free. The sender does not accept any responsibility for any loss or damage or errors or omissions.
Attachment(s) from samir shah
1 of 1 File(s)
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Management lies in dropping the last alphabet: manage – men. still better, drop one more alphabet: manage – me.
Samir Kumar Shah.
9830405060
Attachment(s) from samir shah
1 of 1 File(s)
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Bonus Issues, Stock Splits, Rights Issues, IPO Updates: Record date - Arihant Superstructures rights issue |
| Record date - Arihant Superstructures rights issue Posted: 17 Feb 2010 03:46 PM PST The password to see buy calls is: LIFEISCOLOURFUL. It will change next week, so stay tuned to these emails. The password to see buy calls is: LIFEISCOLOURFUL. It will change next week, so stay tuned to these emails. Arihant Superstructures has fixed 05 March 2010 as the record date for the purpose of determining the entitlement to the rights offer of 1,46,91,000 equity shares on right basis to existing equity shareholders in the proportion of [...] Read More...
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| FCS Software gained on bonus issue Posted: 17 Feb 2010 03:13 PM PST The password to see buy calls is: LIFEISCOLOURFUL. It will change next week, so stay tuned to these emails. The password to see buy calls is: LIFEISCOLOURFUL. It will change next week, so stay tuned to these emails. FCS Software Solutions advanced today too on BSE, extending gains for the second day in a row, after the company fixed 2 March 2010 as the FCS Software bonus issue record date for a liberal 1:1 bonus [...] Read More...
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