Sachin Chavan Daily Total Newsletter - Aug 02, 2007 |
Tel: 022 - 25308355 Email: mail@sachinchavan.com Mobile: 098203-16390 Website: www.sachinchavan.com Please read the disclaimer at the end of this page. Read this newsletter only if you agree with it. |
| Learning Center: | "I have no time to be in a hurry" – Henry Thoreau |
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Part I: Market Overview & Nifty |
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| Overview | |
| Correction has set in and if there were any doubts from Tuesday's bounce, they were quelled yesterday the moment 4420 was broken. Indian markets succumbed to the international lending worries and local over-leveraging. | |
| Though intra-day bounce cannot be ruled out, it would be pragmatic to expect the correction to continue. A small support exists at 4310, but it can give way to 4100 if international pressures do not relent. Traders need not rush in as waiting on sidelines could prove beneficial. | |
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| Nifty |
| Current Spot Rate | Supports | Resistances | Trend | |
S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | MT | ST |
| 4346 | 4100 | 4310 | 4540 | 4650 | Bullish | Corr Dn | |
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| MT = Medium Term (3-12 weeks forecast); ST = Short Term (1-14 days forecast) | |
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| Out-performers (for upto next 3 months) | Under-Performers (for upto next 3 months) | |
| Power, Media, Cap Goods | Tech Majors, Refining majors, Sugar | |
| Out-performer' dooes not necessarily mean bullish, but that it can perform better than the overall market. 'Similarly, 'Under-performer' does not necessarily mean bearish, but that it can perform worse than the overall market. | |
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| Market Barometer (for short term only) |
| Based on the prevailing market trend, this section mentions to what extent it is preferable to hold long positions, short positions or remain univested for a short-term trader at this time. | |
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| Short term position: | Long (plus) | | Short (minus) | | Uninvested | | | |
| Break-up: | Low | | Low | | Medium | | | |
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Media Schedule: | Wed, Aug 01 11:00am-12:00pm: 'Sauda Apka', CNBC Awaaz |
Wed, Aug 01 03:00pm-03:40pm: '2.30 Factor', NDTV Profit |
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| Click here for Details and Registration for Paid Daily Newsletter | |
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| Salient News (from public domain) | |
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Part II: Equity and Derivative Break-outs (for 1-4 weeks) |
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| c Patel Engg completed target (483) amounting to 6.9% profit in 13 days. c. |
| c Blue Star Inds completed target (264) amounting to 6.5% profit in 16 days. c. |
| c Pantaloon derivative yielded 23% return on margin capital in 1 day. Equivalent profit per lot = Rs 12000. c. |
| c BRFL stopped at 218, equivalent to loss of 12% c. |
| The following scrips have provided short-term breakouts at the points mentioned. Likely target/s and stoplosses commensurate with the breakout are also given below. These are based only on technical analysis and are for informational purpose alone. | |
| A breakout can be either bullish or bearish. Bullish breakouts would have targets above and stoplosses below and vice-versa for bearish breakouts. The mode tells whether the breakout is more suitable for equity (delivery-based) or derivatives trading. | |
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| Scrip | Break-out Point | Likely Targets | Stop loss | Current Price | Targets Completed | Mode | |
Type | Date | Price | T1 | T2 | |
| Yes Bank | Long | 31-Jul | 189 | 214 | - | DCL<175 | 181 | None | Equity | |
| Deccan Chron. | Long | 30-Jul | 239 | 260 | - | DCL<220 | 231 | None | Equity | |
| Updated levels are highlighted in yellow. All prices mentioned are NSE equity prices (even for derivative breakouts) | |
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Part III: ASI Analysis of Major 50 Scrips |
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| Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Table |
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| Absolute Strength Index (ASI) is a technical indicator created by the analyst to indicate the bullishness/flatness/bearishness of any scrip. ASI values for 50 major scrips are updated in the table everyday. |
| Read below to understand ASI and what purpose it serves. |
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| Description of ASI ASI, the forward looking proprietary indicator, represents absolute strength of a scrip. There are two ASI's: | Indicative Key to Use ASI = 70-100 -> Bullish ASI = 60-70 -> Mildly Bullish | | |
| - Medium term (3-12 weeks forecast) and - Short term (1-14 days forecast), plotted in the grid above | ASI = 40-60 -> Flat ASI = 30-40 -> Mildly Bearish ASI = 0-30 -> Bearish | | |
| Note1: ASI < 30% does not mean 'oversold' but indicates weakness (fall expected ), and ASI > 70 does not mean 'overbought' but indicates strength (rise expected) | |
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| How to Use | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| The probability of success of a new Long (plus) position is better if MT trend is Bullish AND ST trend has just turned Bullish (underlined as Bullish). New long positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is overbought/ correcting down/bearish. |
| The probability of success of a new Short (minus) position is better if MT trend is Bearish AND ST trend has just turned Bearish (underlined as Bearish ). New short positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is oversold/correcting up/bullish. |
| The rates mentioned below are 'equity' rates and not 'futures' rates. |
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| Scrip | CMP | Medium Term (MT) | Short Term (ST) | |
| ASI | Trend | Target | ASI | Trend | Target | | |
| Nifty | 4346 | 90 | Bullish | 4900 | 20 | Corr Dn | 4310 | | |
| ACC | 967 | 60 | Bullish | 1180 | 27 | Corr Dn | - | | |
| Bajaj Auto | 2287 | 31 | Flat | 2100-2675 | 24 | Flat | 2240-2440 | | |
| BPCL | 308 | 24 | Bearish | 280 | 14 | Bearish | 300 | | |
| Bharti Airtel | 863 | 69 | Bullish | 960 | 16 | Corr Dn | - | | |
| BHEL | 1666 | 86 | Bullish | 1950 | 41 | Flat | 1575-1840 | | |
| Century Text | 700 | 86 | Bullish | 825 | 46 | Flat | 660-750 | | |
| Cipla | 185 | 26 | Bearish | 175 | 11 | Bearish | 180 | | |
| Dabur | 100 | 69 | Bullish | 115 | 29 | Corr Dn | - | | |
| Dr Reddy's | 623 | 36 | Flat | 550-810 | 4 | Ovrsold | - | | |
| GAIL | 326 | 90 | Bullish | 360 | 39 | Flat | 310-345 | | |
| Grasim | 2846 | 74 | Bullish | 3220 | 44 | Flat | 2800-3070 | | |
| Guj Ambuja | 129 | 67 | Bullish | 148 | 46 | Flat | 122-140 | | |
| HCL Tech | 298 | 40 | Flat | 285-360 | 7 | Bearish | 295 | | |
| HDFC Bank | 1161 | 76 | Bullish | 1280 | 31 | Flat | 1125-1250 | | |
| HDFC | 1943 | 83 | Bullish | 2250 | 39 | Flat | 1880-2020 | | |
| Hero Honda | 668 | 33 | Bearish | 615 | 13 | Flat | 650-700 | | |
| Hind Lever | 202 | 43 | Flat | 175-240 | 53 | Flat | 190-210 | | |
| Hind Petro | 245 | 24 | Bearish | 235 | 7 | Bearish | 235 | | |
| Hindalco | 159 | 48 | Flat | 140-200 | 29 | Bearish | 154 | | |
| I - Flex | 2097 | 50 | Flat | 1925-2525 | 17 | Ovrsold | - | | |
| ICICI Bank | 891 | 74 | Bullish | 1015 | 14 | Corr Dn | - | | |
| IDBI | 105 | 76 | Bullish | 125 | 21 | Corr Dn | - | | |
| Indian Hotels | 136 | 60 | Flat | 130-160 | 23 | Bearish | 130 | | |
| IPCL | 357 | 93 | Bullish | 420 | 26 | Corr Dn | - | | |
| Infosys | 1930 | 57 | Flat | 1820-2280 | 20 | Flat | 1900-2000 | | |
| ITC | 167 | 48 | Flat | 145-195 | 64 | Ovrbot | - | | |
| Jet Airways | 703 | 23 | Flat | 650-850 | 6 | Bearish | 690 | | |
| L&T | 2485 | 86 | Bullish | 2800 | 46 | Flat | 2340-2700 | | |
| M&M | 693 | 31 | Flat | 590-860 | 6 | Bearish | 680 | | |
| Maruti | 821 | 40 | Flat | 720-990 | 41 | Flat | 800-850 | | |
| Nalco | 266 | 86 | Bullish | 300 | 11 | Ovrsold | - | | |
| ONGC | 885 | 60 | Bullish | 1040 | 14 | Corr Dn | - | | |
| PNB | 487 | 43 | Flat | 440-570 | 10 | Ovrsold | - | | |
| Ranbaxy | 367 | 33 | Bearish | 330 | 73 | Corr Up | - | | |
| Rel. Capital | 1110 | 88 | Bullish | 1340 | 30 | Corr Dn | - | | |
| Rel. Energy | 737 | 79 | Bullish | 860 | 53 | Flat | 700-790 | | |
| Reliance Ind | 1798 | 83 | Bullish | 1980 | 30 | Corr Dn | - | | |
| Satyam | 470 | 81 | Bullish | 530 | 10 | Corr Dn | - | | |
| SCI | 197 | 86 | Bullish | 230 | 13 | Corr Dn | - | | |
| SBI | 1548 | 98 | Bullish | 1840 | 41 | Flat | 1510-1620 | | |
| Steel Authority | 144 | 81 | Bullish | 170 | 24 | Corr Dn | - | | |
| Tata Chem | 250 | 74 | Bullish | 280 | 29 | Flat | 245-270 | | |
| Tata Steel | 624 | 83 | Bullish | 740 | 23 | Corr Dn | - | | |
| Tata Motors | 667 | 31 | Flat | 635-760 | 7 | Ovrsold | - | | |
| Tata Power | 700 | 90 | Bullish | 840 | 57 | Bullish | 745 | | |
| TCS | 1115 | 40 | Flat | 1050-1250 | 7 | Bearish | 1080 | | |
| VSNL | 450 | 81 | Bullish | 525 | 11 | Corr Dn | - | | |
| Wipro | 477 | 40 | Flat | 435-630 | 3 | Bearish | 470 | | |
| Zee Telefilms | 309 | 90 | Bullish | 345 | 16 | Corr Dn | - | | |
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| Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Plot | |
| Click here to learn the stock codes used in the plot below. | |
| Note: Scrip name in Red Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has reduced substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Green Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has increased substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Black Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has remained same | |
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Disclosure: |
The analyst holds long term investments in various Reliance group companies (including Reliance Industries, Reliance Capital, Reliance Energy, Reliance Natural Resources and Reliance Communications). |
The analyst has business relations with Reliance Money, a Reliance Capital company. The analyst and his dependents have no positions in other stocks/futures. |
Disclaimer: |
This newsletter and the opinions/break-outs mentioned therein are for informational purpose only and not a recommendation or an offer or solicitation of an offer to any person with respect to the purchase or sale of the stocks/futures discussed in this report. I, Sachin Chavan (author), do not accept any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipient & reader of this material should rely on their own investigations and take professional advice. Subscribers, recipients and readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their actions and shall not hold the Author liable for any investment decisions/ actions or any other action (including abstaining from action) based on the Content provided. Information is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The information provided is based on the theory of Technical Analysis. All levels mentioned, including break-out, target, stoploss are only informative. Trading and investment in stock market is risky and volatile. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from the author. - Sachin Chavan |
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