Sensex

Sunday, May 16, 2010

**[investwise]** Good Money After Bad (100516)

 


"Now it is the Europeans' turn to save the world. Their financial authorities had been seen as weak and reluctant. But last weekend, they were as bold and as bumbling as a crusader. Europe's debt is in the public sector – the debt of the subprime states around Europe's periphery. The $1 trillion bailout program calls for transferring this debt onto the taxpayers of the larger, more solvent states...

http://www.stock-investing-software.com/commentary/articles.html?next=14228

Ian

This week's "Tools of the Trade": http://snipr.com/tools-of-the-trade

Explicit NON-commercial advisory: Spot-on, advantageous FREE information, products and/or services presented weekly.
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This week's "Tools" topic: Just a good little commentary on timed trading in this current dysfunctional market.

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[sharetrading] shortes

 

Shorters in scrips may cover as per charts if near high has been taken out

Abe

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[sharetrading] ID Direction

 

Mkt cd take the direction ID on break of 4970 or 4989. Reversal cnfmd over 5000

Trade accordingly .

Abe

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**[investwise]** Bilcare Q4 FY10 Is A Disaster-Sell

 

Any company that reports financials on a Friday night or on Saturday has something to hide. Look at Bilcare Q4-nothing short of a disaster. The company is probably getting hit by material cost and currency on revenue side. Sell.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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**[investwise]** Modern Dairies-BSE 519287 You Can Judge A Company By It's Site

 

You Can Judge A Company By It's Site

For years I have emphasised upon corporate entities to put forth their best face in front of people. Few corporates listen. Most often however, you can draw a link between a bad management and it's site. Take a look at www.milkplus.com (owned by the Rs 400 crore Modern Dairies), the site seems to never have been updated for quite a number of years. And the results tell all-the corporate has simply been blown away.


But Modern Dairies is not an isolated example. Look up the site of most Banks which in all likelihood have passed on communications to third parties. This includes the veritable MNC bank Standard Chartered-and even though it provides an inter-active site, the chances of your getting an appropriate answer is remote. And this is the problem. So many entities have simply given up their core businesses and begun concenterating on short term opportunities like selling mutual funds and gold that they have forgotten builds their ultimate base-the consumer or the depositor in the case of banks. 


However Indian's are not alone


Apple is a marketing-obsessed company with corporate teams that don't talk to one another. Toyota's leadership is too old. HSBC doesn't coordinate nearly as smoothly as those identical airport ads suggest, andGeneral Electric is struggling to create an integrated whole.


Those are some of the conclusions I've drawn from examining the websites of 75 of the world's largest corporations. I call it Web phrenology, after the 19th-century pseudoscience that proposed your personality could be judged from the shape of your head. Look at a website, give it a good prodding, and it is surprising how much you can infer about its owner. This won't replace rigorous financial and commercial analysis, but it can certainly be fun.


Having followed the commercial Web since its beginnings, I have often found myself coming to almost subconscious conclusions about the companies with sites I look at. When I then check against the real world, I find I'm usually right. The Financial Times-Bowen Craggs Web Effectiveness Index, the fourth edition of which has just been published, is a phrenological gold mine.


The point is that a website--or a rather a Web estate, meaning all the sites an organization owns--exposes a company in a very new way. Before the Web, a business could carefully control its public image through its public relations, advertising and publications.


If some scoundrel of a journalist found out something unfortunate, the PR organization would move smoothly into action to limit the damage. And there was no way an outsider could get a glimpse into the internal workings and politics of the mighty corporate machine.


Then the Web came along, forcing companies to provide a face for everyone to see. It would be easy enough to control the superficial impression, perhaps, but it has proved much trickier to hide the deep wrinkles. There are two reasons for this. First, large companies have Web estates that are just too big to control. IBM.com comprises 1.9 million pages; Siemens.com, 407,000. General Electric has a federation of sites, but its core site alone has 33,000 pages.


Second, the natural order is chaos. To switch similies for a moment, websites are like weeds. They pop unless they're ruthlessly controlled, and because they're a low-cost way to meet a need, they spring up whenever a manager has an urge. Each such site offers clues about the little bit of the company that owns it.


Ten years ago the typical corporate Web estate was a straggling and uncoordinated mass of sites; often even the main corporate information areas were disorderly. Since then companies have undergone huge amounts of redevelopment, realizing that such chaos was bad for brand and unhelpful for customers, investors and everyone else.


General Electric was one of the first to move, in the days of Jack Welch. Most of the other early movers were European, including Shell, Siemens and BP, which still top our Index. In the last couple of years there has been a surge of activity in the U.S.


This has made the phrenology more difficult but also more interesting. The most egregious companies are those that haven't even tried to pull themselves together, where chaos still rules. Either it is a mistake or it is deliberate. Some of each, I'd say.


Japanese sites tend to fall in the mistake category: They do remarkably poorly in our Index, none making it into the top half of the ranking. Look at Toyota's global site: toyota.co.jp. The fact that it hasn't seized the dot-com address from its U.S. subsidiary is a clue to the attitude in Toyota City. Scroll down the home page to the section headed "Topics."


Most of it links to a mess of sites that have nothing in common with one another, or with the main site. Meanwhile Honda (world.honda.com) has a search engine that returns results for Lexus and BMW when query "hybrid cars." Mitsubishi UFJ (mufg.jp) is just generally poor.


When a site has been given such feeble focus, the finger usually points to a lack of top management interest. Someone at the top has to say it matters, because good Web estates need cross-departmental collaboration, and that rarely comes without general management involvement. I suspect that a problem that used to dog Western sites--that the businesses were run by a generation that just didn't "get" the Web--persists in Japan.


The Apple story is different. That company's leadership is, I assume, Web-savvy. But it hides it well. Let's pretend I'm a business journalist who wants to dig around in Apple's numbers. I need the "Investor Relations" section. Unfortunately there is no signpost to it on the Apple.com home page.


By trial and error I discover that the "Media Info" link leads to a press area that has a link to the investor area. I go there, find what I want and decide to return to the press releases; I can't. That's just one example in a corporate site that consists of barely connected silos of information. To use the jargon, Apple is not taking a user-centered approach to its site. Strange when you look at the company's products.


Apple's site is the worst, but Microsoft's and Google's aren't much better. They're fragmented, uncoordinated and hard to use. Why?


Mainly because they reflect their companies' decentralized philosophies, I suspect. Those businesses grew mighty by letting their creative people do their own thing, and they have extended that attitude to their human resources, press, investor relations and corporate social responsibility departments. I wonder if those people ever talk to one another in real life. They certainly don't online.


In addition, the Apple and Microsoft sites are aimed resolutely at customers, and the Index shows that they serve them very well. I suspect those sites are run by marketing people, and everyone else gets the crumbs. If there isn't friction about this, there should be.


London-based HSBC calls itself "the world's local bank" and is famous for running the same advertisements in airports all over the world. It surely must be a joined-up organization.


I don't think so. Look carefully at its sites and you will see that their similarity is mainly in the look. They're not as poorly coordinated as many Web estates, but they're far from the smoothly integrated whole those ads would have us believe.


Perhaps the most interesting of the big estates is General Electric's. It buzzes with fascinating material, but there's something odd about its structure. As you dig down through it, you find yourself meeting different templates, as though you are burrowing through geological layers. 


This is common enough in poorly coordinated estates, but at GE? I would guess even Welch's effort at coordination wasn't quite as complete as it appeared, and that subsequent attempts to bring order to the great beast have had only partial success.


That is what I gather from the Web. I leave it to others to say if I am right.


Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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Re: [sharetrading] Smart Investment

 

Thank you very much.  It has lot of information.

--- On Sun, 16/5/10, arun varghese <arun9995022849@gmail.com> wrote:

From: arun varghese <arun9995022849@gmail.com>
Subject: [sharetrading] Smart Investment [1 Attachment]
To:
Date: Sunday, 16 May, 2010, 10:43 AM

 

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[Ways-2gain] [Ways2trade] Fund houses are focusing on existing schemes rather than launchi...

 

Losing The Steam

A MUTUAL fund investor is today spoilt for choice. A prospective investor can choose from an estimated 500 mutual fund products today. The range is so vast that there have been cases when investors have found no striking difference between two schemes launched by same fund house. Another fall out of this overkill of new fund offers in the past has been that be flood of existing products is that existing fund houses are running out of new ideas. No wonder, in the past two years, the number of new fund offers has declined. MF investors especially those looking for fresh investment themes face immense confusion in choosing funds that would meet their investment goals. Hence, fund houses are better off reviewing the performance of their existing schemes rather than launch new ones. ET Intelligence Group is investigating why NFOs have lost their sheen and why you should concentrate more on your existing schemes. Also given the uncertainty in equity markets, we feel investors should go for hybrid or balanced funds. 

THE CRUX: MF experts believe that most old fund houses have enough range of product mix and hence they should focus their energies on existing schemes rather than waste managerial time in launching new schemes. Even if new fund offers come in they will from new entrants in the MF industry. However, these NFOs are likely to be niche offering as the market is already floated with hundreds of traditional products. According to monthly redemption data by AMFI, since August last year, MF investors have resorted to huge redemptions. With the exception of January and February, investors have withdrawn money from their MF schemes every month and redemptions to an extent of Rs 2,000 crore per month in equity funds. Much can be attributed to investors' poor outlook about market future course. This also shows that investors are not convinced about the long-term attractiveness of the equity markets and they want to book profit at the first available opportunity. Genesis of this can be seen in the way markets have moved in the past six months — the Sensex has given barely 2% returns. Also in the past few quarters as interest rates rose, mid and long tenure debt funds have fallen off the investors' radar. Hence, balance funds that invest in both equities and debt market seem to be a convincing proposition for fund mangers and investors alike. 
GOING FORWARD: Balance/hybrid funds as such have a combination of equity and bonds. Hence even if markets rally after a good monsoon and
inflation is reigned in, investors wouldn't miss the rally. Says Venkata Subramaniam, a mutual funds analyst at a leading broking firm, "Its advisable for investors to go for balanced funds as they offer bond and equity market exposure." More so in the last two years it has been observed that balanced equity fund category (on the average) has beaten the equity diversified category by fair percentage." 
    In the past two years, hybrid/balanced funds category has given around 7% returns, while equity diversified funds category has given around 4.8%. Says Devendra Nevgi, founder and principal partner, Delta Global Partners, a firm that manages large investment portfolios, "The extraordinary experience of incurring huge losses in FY09 —thanks to recession, which resulted in the fall of around 52% of markets, investors remained away from the markets for a long time. It would take long time for investors enter into new equity NFOs with fresh, positive mindset." 
    It is seen that on a year-on-year comparison, new fund offers of balanced funds have increased from 12 to 15, while new fund offers in equity and debt funds category have fallen. Every fund house when launches an NFO, it interacts with large investors, agents and distributors about the acceptability of the theme of the fund to be launched. Hence considering the increase in hybrid/balanced funds it seems that investors prefer a good mix of equity and bond rather than pure equity or bond. 
    rajesh.naidu@timesgroup.com 


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**[investwise]** MS: Indebted Corporate India, Are These Companies Shorting Candidates?

 


Morgan Stanley
Promoter Equity Pledging-What's At Stake?
 

Quick Comment: As per the SEBI regulations initiated in March 2009 promoters/founders of companies are required to disclose the amount of stock they have pledged.

 

The following are our observations on the last disclosures made as of QE Mar-10:

What's at Stake? 723 companies have disclosed pledges on their holdings for the Mar-10 quarter versus 745 companies in Mar-09. The stocks of these companies account for 22% of India's current market cap, a tad higher than in Mar-09.

 

As at the end of Mar-10, the total value of pledged stocks was US$34.2 billion versus US$15.8 billion in Mar-09. They accounted for 11.4% of their market cap versus 12.3% at the end of Mar-09 and the peak of 13.4% at the end of Jun-09. This pledged value is about 2.5% of the current market cap of the country, marginally lower than the Mar-09 level.

 

Assuming 50% margin, the bank credit to these promoters at US$17 billion is 2.4% of outstanding bank credit.

 

At the sector level, Utilities (driven by new listings like Adani Power, Indiabulls Power and JSW Energy) have the biggest pledging by promoter, followed by Industrials. Consumer discretionary followed by Materials have the most widespread pledging by promoter.

 

 
Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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[sharetrading] ASIA

 

Market opening is in doldrums. But still believe, an intra day rally will take place. But who knows when..

Let us have the eternal optimism of yesterday…………….

Maintain 4984 as a point of reversion…….

I feel one should view the market negative today…. As of now… But be dynamic with 0.5-1% SL or near high….

 

Abe

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**[investwise]** A Critical Word Of Warning-A Period Of Darkness Descends Upon Equities!

 

This how the dominoes will fall. First, the Euro will devalue against the Sterling and the USD. Then the Pound will collapse against the USD. Next it will be the turn of Asian Exporters to sink, even India. 

All those expecting Rupee appreciation against the USD will soon realise that most of the services sector in the country will become non profitable at Re 40 to 1 USD.

The financials of the services sector will worsen even further with and if, the Rupee v Dollar ratio goes below 40. Then expect lay-offs in BPOs and downsizing of IT services providers and hence more unemployment. 

A panicked GOI will go for a Rupee Devaluation to help exports, and the Greek tragedy will become an Indian tragedy.

Once again nothing is safe; not sovereign debt, not commercial debt and certainly not equities. The fear trade is vastly expounded, as reflected by the massive unidirectional move in Gold. 

May 4th scare, which saw the Dow drop nearly 1,000 points before recovering, was just the beginning of the big shakeout coming…

…before we begin a much happier climb to Dow 14,000.

I've been warning for several months now—even as some people made a ton of money on the long-side of the market—a day of reckoning was drawing near.

Technical indicators — from volume tracking to chart patterns to wave analysis — all foretell a brutal summer. And the worst is yet to come.

Buy-and-hold investors will be brutalized and shocked by just how low the market falls by late July. The Dow's headed for 9,000 and you can either get run over OR go along for the ride. 

Long only investors can line up to be run-over. The extent of fall and extensive damage to personal NAVs will be seen in true measure over the next three months.




Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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