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Tuesday, June 05, 2012

Fw: Sharekhan Special: Q4FY2012 Pharma earnings review

 

Sharekhan Investor's Eye
 
Sharekhan Special
[June 04, 2012] 
Summary of Contents
SHAREKHAN SPECIAL
Q4FY2012 Pharma earnings review 
Key points
  • Pharma universe grows at 31% YoY in Q4FY2012: Sharekhan's pharmaceutical (pharma) universe reported a 31.3% year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in net sales during Q4FY2012. The growth was mainly driven by the export of formulations which grew by 34.8% year on year (YoY) on a weaker currency, launch of key products in the US and acquisition-led volume growth for a few. Adjusting for marked-to-market (MTM) foreign exchange (forex) losses and extraordinary items, the net profit grew by 52.9% YoY, mainly driven by an improvement in the margins and better operating leverage. While most of the players recorded a better than expected revenue growth, few players like Ipca Laboratories (Ipca Labs; up 11.5%) and Torrent Pharmaceuticals (Torrent Pharma; up 34% YoY) disappointed a bit. The revenues of players like Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (Sun Pharma; up 34% YoY), Divi's Laboratories (Divi's Labs; up 49.7% YoY) Glenmark Pharmaceuticals (Glenmark Pharma; up 34.5% YoY) and Lupin (up 24.6% YoY) were better than our expectations. Piramal Healthcare showed a pick up in its base business and recorded a 16% YoY rise in revenue in Q4FY2012. Cadila Healthcare (Cadila Health; up 15.3%) continued to show weaker revenue from most of the geographies, albeit, that was expected. 
  • Weaker rupee helps OPM but pinches bottom line: The operating profit margin (OPM) of our pharma universe stood at 24.3% (up 434 basis points YoY) mainly due to favourable currency movement and a better operating performance by players like Sun Pharma (up 1,073 basis points YoY; due to the consolidation of Taro Pharma, launch of key products in US), Glenmark Pharma (up 664 basis points YoY; on lower other expenditure) and Torrent Pharma (up 465 basis points YoY; albeit below expectations) on lower material costs and other expenses. However, players like Piramal Healthcare (OPM down 206 basis points YoY) and Lupin (OPM down 14 basis points YoY) reported weaker margins mainly on a higher raw material costs and higher payments to foreign employees due to the rupee's depreciation. 
  • Reversal of forex provisions helps profit line: During the quarter, most of the players in our universe have either reversed their marked-to-market provisions for forex losses made in Q3FY2012 to square-off the year-end provisions or reduced their forex losses (non-cash). These provisions collectively resulted in forex gains of Rs86 crore for our universe. Players like Primal Healthcare provided forex gains of Rs72 crore, while Glenmark Pharma provided forex gains of Rs35 crore during the quarter. Lupin and Cadila Healthcare made nominal provisions for forex losses at Rs13 crore and Rs9.5 crore respectively. 
  • Universe's bottom line grows 30% YoY: Despite an improvement in operating margins, the adjusted net profit (excluding forex and exceptional items) of our pharma universe could see a Y-o-Y growth of 30.5% in Q4FY2012, mainly due to higher tax provisions for few and higher fixed costs for others. The net profit growth would have been at 25% YoY for the universe had we excluded the contribution from Taro (66.3% subsidiary of Sun Pharma). The net profits of the universe were mainly driven by Opto Circuits (up 130% YoY on tax credits of Rs77 crore), Torrent Pharma (up 110% YoY), Sun Pharma (up 85.3% YoY on strong contribution from Taro) and Glenmark Pharma (up 34.6% YoY) mainly due to better margin on key launches in the USA.
Valuation

Click here to read report: Sharekhan Special
 
  • Cadila Healthcare (Hold; price target Rs767): The stock is currently trading at 17x and 13x average earnings for FY2013E and FY2014E. We value the stock at 16x average earning for FY2013E and FY2014E. 
  • Divi's Labs (Buy; price target Rs1,122): The stock is trading at 18x and 15x FY2013E and FY2014E earnings. Our price target implies 22x average earnings for FY2013E and FY2014E. 
  • Glenmark Pharma (Buy; price target Rs412): The stock is currently trading at 15x and 13x FY2013E and FY2014E core earnings respectively. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised price target of Rs412, which includes Rs64 from the research pipelines and Rs349 (15x average earnings for FY2013-14E) from the core business.
  • Ipca Laboratories (Buy; price target Rs436): The stock is currently trading at 10x average earnings for FY2013E and FY2014E. Our price target at Rs436 implies 13x average earnings for FY2013E and FY2014E. 
  • Lupin (Buy; target price Rs597): The stock is currently trading at 20x and 16x FY2013 and FY2014 estimated earnings. We value the stock at 20x average earnings for FY2013E and FY2014E. 
  • Opto Circuits (Buy; price target Rs302): Our target price implies 12x average earnings for FY2013E and FY2014E.The stock is currently trading at 6x average earnings for FY2013E and FY2014E.
  • Piramal Health (Buy, price target Rs516): Our sum of the parts (SoTP) based target price includes the value of the pharma business (including pharma solutions, critical care and the OTC business) at Rs206 which is 14x FY2014E earnings per share (EPS), the newly acquired Decision Resource Group (DRG) at Rs34.8 (10x FY2014E EPS), financial services business at Rs19 (on the basis of current price to book value [BV], and the research and development [R&D] business at Rs40 considering there being only two projects (BSR-CarGel and the molecular imagining portfolio) on the basis of discounted cash flow (DCF). Besides, we consider discounted value of cash in hand and liquid investments at Rs216.
  • Sun Pharma (Buy; price target Rs651): We value Sun Pharma at 23x FY2014E earnings. The stock is currently trading at 21x FY2014E earnings.
  • Torrent Pharma (Buy; price target Rs760): The stock is trading at 11x average earnings of FY2013E and FY2014E. We maintain our price target at Rs760, which is 14x average earnings for FY2013E and FY2014E.
Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a postition in the companies mentioned in the article.