Sensex

Monday, May 04, 2009

DG - Trading Diary: US Dollar Breakout



US Dollar Breakout

Euro

The euro is strengthening against the greenback. Clear breakout above the declining trendline would indicate an another rally — with a target of $1.47. Reversal below support at $1.29 remains as likely, and would test primary support at $1.25.

Euro US Dollar

Source: Netdania

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index broke out below a large rising wedge, warning of a primary down-swing with a target of 74, calculated as 84 - [88 - 78]. Failure of support at 82.50 would confirm, while reversal above the lower border would indicate a false signal — and test of the upper border.

US Dollar Index

Source: Netdania

Japanese Yen

The dollar rallied off support at ¥96, headed for a test of the declining trendline. Reversal below ¥96 would test primary support at ¥93.50, while breakout above the declining trendline would confirm the primary up-trend and offer a target of ¥110 (the August 2008 high).

US Dollar Yen

Source: Netdania

Australian Dollar

The Aussie dollar is again testing resistance at $0.7300 against the greenback. Breakout would signal a primary up-trend with a target of the September high at $0.8500 — confirmed if retracement respects the new support level. Reversal below $0.7000 is now less likely, but would test primary support at $0.6300.

Australian Dollar US Dollar

Source: Netdania

 

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DG - Trading Diary: Will Resistance Hold?



Will Resistance Hold?

Japan: Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 reversed above short-term support at 8600, signaling another test of 9000. Twiggs Money Flow (21-Day) bearish divergence warns of a down-swing to test 7000. Breakout above 9000 remains unlikely, but would signal a primary up-trend. Reversal below 8600 would warn of another test of 7000 — confirmed if 8500 is penetrated. The export-led Japanese market has experienced a sharp contraction in sales. A rapid turnaround is unlikely.

Nikkei 225

US: Dow Industrials

The Dow encountered resistance at 8200, with increased volume and a weak close. Expect a test of support at 7800. Breakout below 7800 would warn of a down-swing to test primary support at 6500, while reversal above 8200 would test primary resistance at 9000.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

UK: FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 experienced similar resistance at 4300. Expect a correction to test support at 4000. In the longer term, breakout above 4300 would test primary resistance at 4650, while reversal below 4000 would test primary support at 3500.

FTSE 100

 

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