Sensex

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

DG - View on RBI's Borrowing Calendar

View on RBI’s Borrowing Calendar

March 27, 2009

 

The factors, governing the interest rate market continue to remain mixed. In a normal environment, the steps like rate cut, benign inflationary environment, intervention of RBI in the money market via OMO purchase of Government securities, significant slow down in the credit off take, slowing down in the industrial activity as depicted by the IIP numbers and moderation in growth would have surely given a sentimental and fundamental boost to the bond curve. However, the fear of enormous supply in the following quarter led the market participants to restrict their position build-up. The results were too obvious then; there was a significant hardening and steepening in the yield curve and the outlook from the market perspective remain cautious and uncertain. The 10yr closed at 7.03%, which is significantly higher than the previous month close at around 6.05%.

 

The RBI announced the much-awaited borrowing calendar for the first half of the next fiscal year. The total borrowing for the first six month of the calendar is pegged at INR 2.41 trln (two-third of the budgeted gross borrowings in FY10). The first quarter borrowing is stated around INR 480 bln per month and the second quarter of the fiscal is likely to see a borrowing of INR 320 bln every month. This will lead to around INR 120 bln of supply every week in the initial part of the year. On a standalone basis, this looks to be very steep and almost impossible for the market to digest. The first cut reaction will be that we've miles to go before the general interest rate settle down but…

 

RBI emphasizes the need to conduct the borrowing in a manner that is least disruptive for the interest rate market. It unleashed some of those measures left at its disposal in order to meet the objective. Along with the borrowing calendar, RBI simultaneously announced the OMO calendar, proposing to buy back government securities of INR 800 bln in the first half of 2009-10. Of this, purchase of government securities of INR 400 bln is envisaged for the first quarter itself. The RBI also proposes to do unwinding of MSS securities worth INR 420 bln for the first half of the calendar. Furthermore, it is to be noted that the Government of India securities amounting to around INR 330 bln are due for redemption in the first half of the fiscal. We also have estimated coupon payments in the first half of the year aggregate to around INR 670 bln.

 

The total inflow because of all these measures and flow works out at around INR 2.2 trln against the gross borrowing of around INR 2.41 trln. The holistic analysis of the situation leads us to believe that the situation is not as grim as thought earlier. If credit growth indeed slows down further, we may see a renewed interest in the Government bonds especially from the banking sector. The RBI can also buy government bonds from the secondary market if the situation demands so. They still have other tools like Private placement of government debt and Monetization that may be put to use after election if

the situation gets to a stage where it may look like going out of hand.

 

The market may trade a shade lower for the next few days in a knee jerk reaction to the borrowing calendar. However, the support from RBI will ensure that the rise in yield is capped. The yield curve may actually settle down lower over a period as and when supply sinks in. The upside on 10yr looks to be around 7.25%-7.50%, but on the downside, we may see sub 6% level in some time. In our view, the risk-return matrix is favourably tilted more towards long duration.

 

Thanks,

 

Rohit Gadia

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DG - Knowledge is Nectar : SEBI Approval Trading Hours

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DG - FW: Sharekhan Post-Market Report dated March 31, 2009

 

 

From: The Sharekhan Research Team [mailto:marketwatch@research.sharekhan.com]
Sent: 31 March 2009 16:14
To: The Sharekhan Research Team
Subject: Sharekhan Post-Market Report dated March 31, 2009

 

 Sharekhan's daily newsletter

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March 31, 2009

 

Index Performance

Index

Sensex

Nifty

Open

9,633.21

2,981.70

High

9,826.22

3,054.30

Low

9,547.21

2,966.40

Today's Cls

9,708.50

3,020.95

Prev Cls

9,568.14

2,978.15

Change

140.36

42.80

% Change

1.47

1.44

 

Market Indicators

Top Movers (Group A)

Company

Price 
(Rs)

%
chg

Gainers

Bhushan Steel

398.30

19.92

Siemense

269.50

10.04

JSW Steel

231.85

8.54

Indiabulls Real Estate

99.80

8.07

Biocon

144.50

7.96

Losers

NALCO

214.45

-5.07

KSK Energy

190.95

-3.61

Oriental Bank

109.90

-2.96

HDFC

1,411.20

-2.71

Andhra Bank

44.95

-2.49

Market Statistics

-

BSE

NSE

Advances

1,551

820

Declines

903

352

Unchanged

88

54

Volume(Nos)

33.84cr

82.29cr

 Market Commentary 

Market hit at fag end

Market closes with gains, but slips 228 points from the day's high of 9826.

The market appeared to be heading towards a negative close after a strong bout of profit-taking towards the close shaved off nearly 228 points from the day’s high.  

 

Starting the day with a gap of 65 points at 9633, suddenly the market crashed into negative territory and touched the day’s low of 9547. Sensex witnessed unrestrained buying in several counters that held the market firm above 9700 levels for the rest of the trading session. In the afternoon session, the index notched up further gains to touch the day's high of 9826. 

Towards the close, the market slipped, as weakness in select heavyweights, consumer durables and public sector units stocks shaved off nearly 117 points from the day’s high. Sensex ended the session with gains of 140 points at 9709, while Nifty gained 43 point to close at 3021.

The market breadth, the number of advancing shares to declining shares, was positive. Of the 2,542 stocks trading on BSE, 1,551 stocks advanced, whereas 903 stocks declines. Eighty eight stocks ended unchanged. All the 13 sectoral indices on BSE remained marginally up. BSE CG gained 3.29% followed by BSE HC (up 2.97%) and BSE Realty (up 2.93%). BSE Auto, BSE Metal, BSE Teck, BSE IT and BSE FMCG posted gains of above 2% each. Rest of the indices closed in a positive territory with marginal gains.

Among Sensex stocks, JP Associates was the leading gainer, soaring 7.26% to Rs84.20, Tata Steel advanced 5.02% to Rs206, Tata Motors jumped 4.64% to Rs180.30, Ranbaxy Laboratories shot up by 4.58% at Rs165.60, State Bank of India added 4.36% at Rs1,066.55, while Reliance Communications, Mahindra & Mahindra, Hindalco Industries, Larsen & Toubro and ITC closed with gains. Among laggards, HDFC tumbled 2.71% at Rs1411.20, National Thermal Power Corporation shed 1.80% at Rs180.20, ICICI Bank lost 1.58% at Rs332.60 and Hindustan Unilever and ONGC declined by 0.50% and 0.41% respectively.

Over 1.55 crore shares of Unitech changed hands on BSE followed by GVK Power & Infrastructure (1.39 crore shares), Cals Refineries (1.20 crore shares), Reliance Natural Resources (1.13 lakh shares) and ICICI Bank (1.05 crore shares).

European Indices at 16:00 IST on 31-03-2009

Index

Level

Change (pts)

Change (%)

FTSE 100 Index

3862.11

99.20

2.64

CAC 40 Index

2758.55

39.21

1.44

DAX INDEX

4035.98

46.75

1.17

Asian Indices at close on 31-03-2009

Index

Level

Change (pts)

Change (%)

Nikkei 225

8109.53

-126.55

-1.54

Hang Seng Index

13576.02

119.69

0.89

Kospi Index

1206.26

8.80

0.73

Straits Times Index

1699.99

26.85

1.60

Jakarta Composite Index

1434.07

14.98

1.06

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DG - Nifty Realignment

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DG - Dear AIG : - I Quit

The following is a letter sent on Tuesday by Jake DeSantis, an executive vice president of the American International Group’s financial products unit, to Edward M. Liddy, the chief executive of A.I.G.

DEAR Mr. Liddy,

It is with deep regret that I submit my notice of resignation from A.I.G. Financial Products. I hope you take the time to read this entire letter. Before describing the details of my decision, I want to offer some context:

I am proud of everything I have done for the commodity and equity divisions of A.I.G.-F.P. I was in no way involved in — or responsible for — the credit default swap transactions that have hamstrung A.I.G. Nor were more than a handful of the 400 current employees of A.I.G.-F.P. Most of those responsible have left the company and have conspicuously escaped the public outrage.

After 12 months of hard work dismantling the company — during which A.I.G. reassured us many times we would be rewarded in March 2009 — we in the financial products unit have been betrayed by A.I.G. and are being unfairly persecuted by elected officials. In response to this, I will now leave the company and donate my entire post-tax retention payment to those suffering from the global economic downturn. My intent is to keep none of the money myself.

I take this action after 11 years of dedicated, honorable service to A.I.G. I can no longer effectively perform my duties in this dysfunctional environment, nor am I being paid to do so. Like you, I was asked to work for an annual salary of $1, and I agreed out of a sense of duty to the company and to the public officials who have come to its aid. Having now been let down by both, I can no longer justify spending 10, 12, 14 hours a day away from my family for the benefit of those who have let me down.

You and I have never met or spoken to each other, so I’d like to tell you about myself. I was raised by schoolteachers working multiple jobs in a world of closing steel mills. My hard work earned me acceptance to M.I.T., and the institute’s generous financial aid enabled me to attend. I had fulfilled my American dream.

I started at this company in 1998 as an equity trader, became the head of equity and commodity trading and, a couple of years before A.I.G.’s meltdown last September, was named the head of business development for commodities. Over this period the equity and commodity units were consistently profitable — in most years generating net profits of well over $100 million. Most recently, during the dismantling of A.I.G.-F.P., I was an integral player in the pending sale of its well-regarded commodity index business to UBS. As you know, business unit sales like this are crucial to A.I.G.’s effort to repay the American taxpayer.

The profitability of the businesses with which I was associated clearly supported my compensation. I never received any pay resulting from the credit default swaps that are now losing so much money. I did, however, like many others here, lose a significant portion of my life savings in the form of deferred compensation invested in the capital of A.I.G.-F.P. because of those losses. In this way I have personally suffered from this controversial activity — directly as well as indirectly with the rest of the taxpayers.

I have the utmost respect for the civic duty that you are now performing at A.I.G. You are as blameless for these credit default swap losses as I am. You answered your country’s call and you are taking a tremendous beating for it.

But you also are aware that most of the employees of your financial products unit had nothing to do with the large losses. And I am disappointed and frustrated over your lack of support for us. I and many others in the unit feel betrayed that you failed to stand up for us in the face of untrue and unfair accusations from certain members of Congress last Wednesday and from the press over our retention payments, and that you didn’t defend us against the baseless and reckless comments made by the attorneys general of New York and Connecticut.

My guess is that in October, when you learned of these retention contracts, you realized that the employees of the financial products unit needed some incentive to stay and that the contracts, being both ethical and useful, should be left to stand. That’s probably why A.I.G. management assured us on three occasions during that month that the company would “live up to its commitment” to honor the contract guarantees.

That may be why you decided to accelerate by three months more than a quarter of the amounts due under the contracts. That action signified to us your support, and was hardly something that one would do if he truly found the contracts “distasteful.”

That may also be why you authorized the balance of the payments on March 13.

At no time during the past six months that you have been leading A.I.G. did you ask us to revise, renegotiate or break these contracts — until several hours before your appearance last week before Congress.

I think your initial decision to honor the contracts was both ethical and financially astute, but it seems to have been politically unwise. It’s now apparent that you either misunderstood the agreements that you had made — tacit or otherwise — with the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, various members of Congress and Attorney General Andrew Cuomo of New York, or were not strong enough to withstand the shifting political winds.

You’ve now asked the current employees of A.I.G.-F.P. to repay these earnings. As you can imagine, there has been a tremendous amount of serious thought and heated discussion about how we should respond to this breach of trust.

As most of us have done nothing wrong, guilt is not a motivation to surrender our earnings. We have worked 12 long months under these contracts and now deserve to be paid as promised. None of us should be cheated of our payments any more than a plumber should be cheated after he has fixed the pipes but a careless electrician causes a fire that burns down the house.

Many of the employees have, in the past six months, turned down job offers from more stable employers, based on A.I.G.’s assurances that the contracts would be honored. They are now angry about having been misled by A.I.G.’s promises and are not inclined to return the money as a favor to you.

The only real motivation that anyone at A.I.G.-F.P. now has is fear. Mr. Cuomo has threatened to “name and shame,” and his counterpart in Connecticut, Richard Blumenthal, has made similar threats — even though attorneys general are supposed to stand for due process, to conduct trials in courts and not the press.

So what am I to do? There’s no easy answer. I know that because of hard work I have benefited more than most during the economic boom and have saved enough that my family is unlikely to suffer devastating losses during the current bust. Some might argue that members of my profession have been overpaid, and I wouldn’t disagree.

That is why I have decided to donate 100 percent of the effective after-tax proceeds of my retention payment directly to organizations that are helping people who are suffering from the global downturn. This is not a tax-deduction gimmick; I simply believe that I at least deserve to dictate how my earnings are spent, and do not want to see them disappear back into the obscurity of A.I.G.’s or the federal government’s budget. Our earnings have caused such a distraction for so many from the more pressing issues our country faces, and I would like to see my share of it benefit those truly in need.

On March 16 I received a payment from A.I.G. amounting to $742,006.40, after taxes. In light of the uncertainty over the ultimate taxation and legal status of this payment, the actual amount I donate may be less — in fact, it may end up being far less if the recent House bill raising the tax on the retention payments to 90 percent stands. Once all the money is donated, you will immediately receive a list of all recipients.

This choice is right for me. I wish others at A.I.G.-F.P. luck finding peace with their difficult decision, and only hope their judgment is not clouded by fear.

Mr. Liddy, I wish you success in your commitment to return the money extended by the American government, and luck with the continued unwinding of the company’s diverse businesses — especially those remaining credit default swaps. I’ll continue over the short term to help make sure no balls are dropped, but after what’s happened this past week I can’t remain much longer — there is too much bad blood. I’m not sure how you will greet my resignation, but at least Attorney General Blumenthal should be relieved that I’ll leave under my own power and will not need to be “shoved out the door.”

Sincerely,

Jake DeSantis

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