**[investwise]** Ing Vysya Bank-Moves North With 60 New Branches. (IDFC targets Rs 450/share)

 

Ing Vysya Bank-The Men In Orange Move Up-North, IDFC puts a 12 month price target of Rs 450 From a private sector bank almost entirely operating from South and West India, Ing is incrementally looking to expand its footprint in West and North India (of the 60 licenses received last year, 50 were non-South). At present 75 per cent of ING Vysya Bank's (VYSB) branches are based in the south, which management believes is a sub-optimal strategy. Management indicated that their strategy has been three pronged: (1) strengthen liability franchise in terms of retail/low-cost, (2) clean-up asset quality, and (3) grow at industry levels. On the back of enhancing productivity of branches and strategic focus, CASA ratio has improved to 34% in June 2010 from 27% in March 2009. Management intends to double their loan book over the next 3 years and is looking to add 80-100 branches per year (resulting in cost to income ratio remaining around 59%). Of the total loan book as of June 2010, 42% is large and mid-corporate segment (50% each) and another 26% is SME (VYSB's erstwhile foothold). VYSB is leveraging ING's brand name/ relationships to grow the large and mid-corporate book. Management is not concerned on the quality of the SME portfolio as it believes it is well collateralized. Safe Harbor Statement: Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.   Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

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Fwd: InvestorTalks- Re: beware

 

NEVER SUBSCRIBE ANY ADVISERS OR TIPS TO GET PROFIT IN MARKET.THEY ARE BIG LAYERS AND CHITTERS. THIS IS MY EXPERIENCE FROM THE PAST.

IF YOU HAD SPENT 5 TK IN GOOD MARKET BOOKS AND LEARN THE TECHNICALS ,MONEY MANAGEMENT AND INVESTED  IN FUNDAMENTAL SHARES WITH PATIENCE,PERSISTENCE YOU WILL GET PROFIT +30 %  OF YOUR INVESTED CAPITAL LESS THEN A YEAR. I AM 15 Y AS A POSITION  SWING TRADER SOMETHIMES DAY TRADER OR LONG TERM,

I DON'T GIVE ANY TIPS OR INFORMATIONS TO ANYBODY. DO THE HOME WORK YOURSELF AND TREAT THE TRADING AS A BUSINESS

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From: Subhash
Sent: Fri, September 17, 2010 8:24:19 PM
Subject: InvestorTalks- Re: beware

 

yes i m getting the same type of calls after market hours from these two companies www.tradelessbutwise.com & www.tradersorbit.com.
I did not know much about tradersorbit but i had subscribed tradelessbutwise with their combo package arround Rs 12000 per month and surprisingly to tell u that they have provided me 4/5 calls in whole months and all are worthless,when i get contact with them by email they had not bothered when i try to contact over phone they are not picking up phones after trying so many times they had not bothered.So at least i say tradelessbutwise is a chor company.

Thanks

Subhash

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From: karan 
Sent: Fri, 17 September, 2010 7:16:56 PM
Subject: [stockeditor] beware

 

Hello everyone...I would like to share my personal experience with all of u and beware of such kind of call providers...Few days back,i have been given a call from SLIVERSTOCK COMPANY and they explained me about their scheme...They assured me on phone that, if i trade on their recommendation, i will make profit and above that, they will give 2.5% minimum guaranteed amount if i trade shares worth Rs 1 lac ONLY IN BSE...I was also told about delivery call in which they agreed to provide me 3.5% assured return from their side + profit earned on my own...They had told me to send them a contract note of my trade after mkt hrs, n they will give assured amount directly to my bank account on the same day....I found it interesting...They were to give me 2-3 calls per week...After a few days, an sms came on my mobile n senders' id was- shyam advisory ..The assured return share was SHREE GLOBAL(512463)...buy @cmp(which was about 300) sl given on phone was 292 where as in sms 263, with a BTST TGT of 330.... And i was shocked to see, that the stock was on down ckt of 20% on that day....beware of these kind of people...                 I am also curious, that is there any one who can give 100% accuracy in stock mkt? Most of the people claim 85-90-95% accuracy at the most...But i have two names in my mind, who claim daily profit only... www.tradelessbutwise.com & www.tradersorbit.com.... Daily in my mobile, at d end of the day, i get msg of profit only..I THINK, either they are showing fake performance or they are sending sms of the call in which they made profit..Its just my personal view..If any one is subscriber of them, they can reply back and clarify my doubt.....                                                  JAI HIND

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**[investwise]** BNP-India's BSE Sensex May Rise To 24000 By End Dec2010

 

BNP Sensex May Trade At 24000 By December 2010 How far could liquidity drive the market?   Liquidity typically drives markets and stock prices above fair valuation. During times of high liquidity (March-May'06 and Jan-December '07 for example), the market tends to trade at large premium compared to fair value. During May 2006 and Feb 2007 Sensex traded at 17-19% premium compared to our fair value, while at the peak liquidity of January 2008, it traded at 65% premium. We believe if the current run rate of FII flows continue (i.e. 0.4-0.5% of free float market cap), Sensex could touch 15-20% premium to our fair value estimate (19600 by December 2010).   GEM and AxJ funds getting good inflows   We estimate that currently GEM funds put together have slightly more than $200b in their funds and are getting $2b additional inflows per month into their funds. AxJ funds have $65-70b in their funds and are getting $1b per month. If they decide to maintain their current weights on India, simply additional inflows into their funds could lead to $280-300m monthly additional FII inflow into India from these two sources – nearly $120m from AxJ Funds and $160m from GEM funds.   But Global funds could contribute much more   Based on EPFR data we estimate that global funds (i.e. those benchmarked to MSCI World) have $1.7trn in AUM. Currently global funds put together have 0.65% of their assets in India – an underweight of 0.38% compared to the benchmark weight of 1.03%. Even if we assume no further inflows into global funds, purely their reallocation to neutral position on India could lead to $6.8b additional flows into India equities. If such reallocation happens by the end of 2010 – that could mean nearly $1.7b additional inflows per month till end-2010.   DIIs – still considerable cash with insurance companies   We estimate that MFs and insurance companies put together are sitting on $9-10b cash right now. We believe MFs have INR120-140b ($2.5-3b) cash in their portfolios (at the end of August 2010). We estimate that insurance companies put together have $7-7.5b cash in their equity portfolios (8% of equity AUM). Reduction of cash positions to 4% of equity AUM could induce $3.5b inflow into equity from insurance companies. LIC has gone on record saying it wants to invest Rs600bn ($12-13bn) in equities in FY11.   Our proprietary top-down model also predicts strong FII inflows   Our bottom up estimates suggest that India may continue to receive USD 2-2.5b of FII inflows per month in the near term (USD1.7bn from global funds; USD300m from AxJ and GEM funds and USD500-700m from ETFs, India dedicated funds and others). We construct a proprietary top-down model to estimate of FII flows into India.   Our 5-factor model incorporates global (VIX, crude price, US ten year yields) and country-specific (USD-INR and Indian 10-yr bond yields) factors. Our model predicts that the strong run-rate of FII flows could continue, albeit at a lower pace of USD1-1.5b/month.   Safe Harbor Statement: Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.   Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

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**[investwise]** Goldman Sachs-Banking Road Trip-Optimism Reigns Supreme

 

We recently hosted an Indian Financials road trip where investors had extensive interaction with 25 corporates. Key takeaways: (1) credit growth will likely accelerate in 2H, deposit growth too will improve as banks have raised deposit rates, and banks remain optimistic on CASA targets despite the rising rate environment, (2) not all banks were confident of margin improvement given less pricing power, which they expect to return with credit growth and (3) banks expect asset quality to slip in FY2011, though remain manageable and improve in FY2012.   Insurance industry interactions were more tepid in tone; while most companies are confident of long term potential they are less positive on growth and margins in the short-term. Focus is on cost cutting and calibrating strategies to minimize impact. Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) is expected by the companies to benefit in the short-term from private sector pain.   Banking Sector – In good shape   Credit growth – consensus view of 20-25%, more diverse from here:   Most banks guided for between 20% to 25% growth for FY11E, with CRISIL forecasting it at 22%. There was widespread agreement that growth thus far has been driven by the Infrastructure sector primarily due to 3G licenses in telecom as well as roads, power and ports. Banks we interacted with stated that credit growth for H2FY11E will be:   1. More diversified as sectors other than infrastructure start drawing down on approved limits; furthermore a lot of the private banks are low on their priority sector advance targets for the year as per CRISIL which would also lead to diversification.   2. Higher as re-bounding CAPEX cycle will translate into credit growth with equity/non fund based source of funds having played a bigger role so far Of the banks we met, ICICI Bank stated intent to accelerate credit growth after having deleveraged for 2 years. Vijaya Bank was the other outlier intending to maintain below industry FY11 growth, in the face of asset quality issues.   Deposit growth – Not overtly concerned, to catch-up with rate hike:   All banks we interacted with unanimously dismissed lower deposit growth as a cause for concern. The industry guided for deposit growth at around 18% for the year in line with RBI guidance. Most banks seem to believe that with deposit rates rising and credit growth picking up, deposit growth would gain traction from the current 14%. The current disconnect between deposit and credit growth is being managed as banks are utilizing their excess SLR and refinancing. Safe Harbor Statement: Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.   Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

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