Sensex
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| what is the reason for market crash ? can anybody explain !! in this final quater more or less results also good... Regards Joy --- On Fri, 23/4/10, Rajat Gupta <qmscreatives@ yahoo.com> wrote:
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India: Growth Punctured Twin Deficits (Fiscal and Current Account), Dependence on Fx flows for funding growth, illiteracy, exponential population growth, poverty, unemployment and a Naxal rebellion. We have it all. This is not the backdrop for a prospering stock market. We have a long, hard road ahead of us, so we must not get complacent. It is now widely acknowledged in investing circles, at least among emerging market investors, that India is one of the better long-term stories out there. Chris Wood of CLSA has for years now highlighted India as his single-best long-term bet in Asia. He makes the point about entrepreneurship, focus on domestic consumption in the economic model, and greater respect for capital among corporate houses as his reasons for being bullish. The emerging market (EM) strategist at BCA also highlighted India as his single-best idea over the next five years at a recent seminar that I attended. He talks of India being a severely under-invested country which, despite the under-investment, is showing good productivity growth. He makes the point that India has now begun to invest, and betting on a country which is under-invested but is now investing because of rising domestic savings normally leads to profitable outcomes. Jim Walker of Asianomics is another noted economic commentator who is quite bullish on India for the long term, and has very high regard for our economic policy-makers in general and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in particular. Consistent with the above, he expects far less capital destruction in India than in other Asian markets, and far better capital discipline and a more pronounced domestic orientation in our growth strategy. Everyone is, of course, aware of the famous Goldman Sach's BRIC report, and its contention that India will grow faster for longer and has the best longer term growth outlook among the four economies. I could, of course, go on and there are many more equally famous market observers who have made similar comments. Thus, one can understand why everyone in India may be getting a little complacent and even smug. It is almost as if investors and policy-makers are convinced that this rosy outlook is baked in the cake, so to speak. If it is going to happen and India is going to march ahead anyway, why take hard decisions? Does one really need to battle vested interests when 8 per cent or even 9 per cent long-term growth is assured? In this context I had some very interesting meetings over the last few weeks, with some very savvy and seasoned global investors who had an interesting perspective on this issue. They first of all made the point that there are many instances of countries growing strongly for a period and then stalling. Brazil was cited as the most obvious instance, where, after a period of strong economic performance, the country totally stalled in the 1980s and 1990s. There have been only 12 or 13 countries which have been able to grow at 8 per cent or faster for at least 25 years. Of this number, at least half have little relevance being single-resource dependent or city states. India, therefore, cannot take its current success for granted, only four countries (of a reasonable size) have been able to do what India aspires to. What investors are assuming is a done deal is actually extraordinarily rare. The second point made was the increasing politician-industri An additional point was made on the inability to take decisions and build consensus. Why would a country go on agonising over foreign education providers when there is such an obvious shortage of capacity in higher education? Even if you get foreign institutes to come in, they will only supplement the domestic institutions and just scratch the surface in terms of meeting unfulfilled demands. This was cited as another example of a total unwillingness on the part of the government to take on vested interests. It was surprising to one of the investors how even small sections of society can seemingly hold back progress and the whole country to ransom. In a country like India with a general resistance to change, any progress requires vested interests or rent-seekers to be pushed aside, and an unwillingness to do so severely impairs progress. These investors also felt that India had an intractable problem on the fiscal front, as any progress would be frittered away in poorly designed or executed social sector give-aways. This genie has now been let out of the bottle, and no government will be able to resist the temptation to keep spending. Spending has now got strongly associated with winning elections. India may have got away with it right now given the poor fiscal situation globally, but the country has a structural propensity in recent years towards populism. This poor fiscal discipline will ultimately lead to structural crowding out and inflation issues. There were additional points made on the extremely poor supply-side response in infrastructure, and as to how this was a systemic issue related to land and process and not to funding or capacity constraints. Being a systemic issue, it was not likely to get resolved. What would cause it to change today which could not have been done years ago? Infrastructure deficit was now binding, and unless it was resolved, it would not permit the desired growth. There was concern around India's demographics, with the fear of this being a demographic disaster, rather than dividend. Given our levels of vocational training, higher education and labour market rigidities, questions were asked on how would the country move hundreds of millions of people off farms and improve their productivity? They were surprised at the very low levels of political noise around job creation compared to China, where the government has an almost single-point agenda around creating 20 million jobs per annum. India's huge dependence on global capital flows was also highlighted. One investor went so far as to say that India was the most leveraged market to global capital flows and hence risk appetite in the world. Without strong foreign capital flows, the growth story did not stand, was the simple point. There was concern around governance, or the lack of it. And, India as an investment destination was perceived to be a tug of war between a good micro-company- It was to put it mildly a sobering series of conversations. While one does not necessarily agree with all the points made, it does go to show that maybe we should not get carried away. We can potentially have a strong growth trajectory, but it will require strong political will to implement long overdue fundamental changes. These required changes are well known but still do not get implemented. Someday soon this has to change. We have a long hard road ahead of us, we must not get complacent. Maintaining growth will require decisive action, determination and a clear head. We cannot let ourselves get diverted. The author is the Fund Manager and Chief Executive Officer of Amansa Capital. Safe Harbor Statement: Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. |
| Market crash happens when nobody expects it to happen. History says so --- On Thu, 4/22/10, A P Abraham <abrahamap@airtelmai l.in> wrote:
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Sir what is about GMDC. It is not moving beyond 150. I am holding @151...what to do....
One needs to be patient with Balajitele. SL realistically is way down. But if one is uncertain close below 60.7 can be treated as a SL. It is holding good in a trending area……..
Rcom SL is near 165….. Rcom is still below trending region, but with all potential………..
Abe
Reliance Industries Ltd., the operator of India's biggest natural gas field, posted a 30 percent increase in fourth-quarter profit, missing estimates, as sales of the fuel partly countered lower earnings from refining.
Net income in the three months ended March 31 rose to 47.1 billion rupees ($1.1 billion), or 14.40 rupees a share, from 36.3 billion rupees, or 11.50 rupees, the Mumbai-based energy explorer and refiner said in an e-mailed statement yesterday. That compares with a 51.4 billion-rupee mean profit estimate of 14 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Reliance, controlled by Asia's richest man, Mukesh Ambani, increased output from the KG-D6 field off India's east coast as accelerating economic growth spurred demand from power and fertilizer producers. Profits from processing crude oil may remain "under pressure" because of a large increase in Asian refining capacity, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in February.
"Refining margins are below expectations," said Saeed Jaffery, an analyst at Ambit Capital Pvt. in Mumbai. "Refining will continue to be under pressure for at least another quarter."
Reliance, which has the biggest weighting in the benchmark Sensitive share Index, rose 1.2 percent to 1,088.20 rupees in Mumbai yesterday, valuing the company at $80 billion. The stock has advanced 23 percent in the past year, trailing the 59 percent increase in the Sensitive Index.
Refinery Profit
The company, India's biggest by market value, also operates chemical plants and fuel-retail outlets. Pretax earnings from refining fell to 19.9 billion rupees or 34 percent of the total, compared with 49 percent a year earlier. Reliance's 1.24 million barrel-a-day Jamnagar refining complex in the western state of Gujarat ran at 108 percent, according to the statement.
Net sales in the quarter more than doubled to 575.7 billion rupees, Reliance said. Profit was the highest in nine quarters, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Profit a year earlier, adjusted for one-time items, was 39.6 billion rupees, the company said.
Reliance earned $7.50 on every barrel of crude it turned to fuels in the quarter, the company said. That compares with $9.90 a barrel reported a year earlier.
Global refining margins widened to $3.08 in the three-month period from $1.49 in the December quarter, according to BP Plc data. The margins will "remain depressed," BP said. Adjusted earnings at Europe's biggest oil company rose 68 percent in the three months ended Dec. 31, falling short of estimates.
Crude oil for January delivery rose 1.7 percent to $85.12 a barrel in New York, the highest settlement since April 15.
Debt, Cash
Reliance had outstanding debt of about 625 billion rupees as of March 31 and cash and equivalents of 218.7 billion rupees, according to the statement.
Reliance has notified the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons, India's oil and gas regulator, of four more discoveries in the KG-D6 gas field that are commercially viable, two people familiar with the matter said April 9. The field started production in April last year.
Peak output of 80 million cubic meters a day may be reached at the field by mid-2010, the government said in December. That will double the availability of gas in India and make Reliance the biggest producer of the fuel in the South Asian nation. Output is currently about 60 million cubic meters a day, according to the statement.
Shale Gas
Hardy Oil & Gas Plc, Reliance's partner in two other gas fields in India's Bay of Bengal, this month cut by 51 percent the prospective resource estimate in the KG-D9 field.
Reliance acquired shale gas assets in the U.S. from Atlas Energy Inc. this month to diversify the risk of investing in India where it is fighting a lawsuit over supply and pricing of gas from the field.
The explorer agreed to buy a $1.7 billion stake in natural- gas properties from Atlas, joining other international energy companies betting on growing fuel output in U.S. shale formations, the company said April 9. It expects to spend $5 billion on the venture over 10 years, according to Chief Financial Officer Alok Agarwal.
Reliance is examining more opportunities in shale gas and wants to build a "meaningful position" in North America, Agarwal said in Mumbai yesterday.
Acquiring assets overseas may help Reliance hedge the risk of investing in India. Reliance is awaiting the verdict of India's Supreme Court in the lawsuit.
Gas Lawsuit
Anil Ambani, Mukesh Ambani's estranged brother, wants Reliance Industries to supply gas to his company at a rate agreed when the family business was split. Reliance says it can't sell the fuel at less than the rate set later by the government. The court reserved judgment after arguments concluded on Dec. 18.
Reliance's attempts to buy LyondellBasell Industries AF out of bankruptcy was rejected in March, and the company missed out on an oil-sands block in Canada owned by Value Creation Inc. Reliance has said it may buy oil fields in the Gulf of Mexico and Brazil.
To contact the reporter on this story: Rakteem Katakey in New Delhi at rkatakey@bloomberg.
Dear Sri Rattiji
SAD BUT TRUE STATE OF AFFAIRS !
See what happened to a gallant soldier like SAM MANEKSHA. Despite his heroism hardly afew turned up to his funeral !
Regards
Mugunthanchari
A Poem Worth Reading
He was getting old and paunchy
And his hair was falling fast,
And he sat around the VFW,
Telling stories of the past.
Of a war that he once fought in
And the deeds that he had done,
In his exploits with his buddies;
They were heroes, every one.
And 'tho sometimes to his neighbors
His tales became a joke,
All his buddies listened quietly
For they knew where of he spoke.
But we'll hear his tales no longer,
For ol' Bob has passed away,
And the world's a little poorer
For a Soldier died today.
He won't be mourned by many,
Just his children and his wife.
For he lived an ordinary,
Very quiet sort of life.
He held a job and raised a family,
Going quietly on his way;
And the world won't note his passing,
'Tho a Soldier died today.
When politicians leave this earth,
Their bodies lie in state,
While thousands note their passing,
And proclaim that they were great.
Papers tell of their life stories
From the time that they were young
But the passing of a Soldier
Goes unnoticed, and unsung.
Is the greatest contribution
To the welfare of our land,
Some jerk who breaks his promise
And cons his fellow man?
Or the ordinary fellow
Who in times of war and strife,
Goes off to serve his country
And offers up his life?
The politician's stipend
And the style in which he lives,
Are often disproportionate,
To the service that he gives.
While the ordinary Soldier,
Who offered up his all,
Is paid off with a medal
And perhaps a pension, small..
It's so easy to forget them,
For it is so many times
That our Bobs and Jims and Johnnys,
Went to battle, but we know,
It is not the politicians
With their compromise and ploys,
Who won for us the freedom
That our country now enjoys.
Should you find yourself in danger,
With your enemies at hand,
Would you really want some cop-out,
With his ever waffling stand?
Or would you want a Soldier--
His home, his country, his kin,
Just a common Soldier,
Who would fight until the end.
He was just a common Soldier,
And his ranks are growing thin,
But his presence should remind us
We may need his like again.
For when countries are in conflict,
We find the Soldier's part
Is to clean up all the troubles
That the politicians start.
If we cannot do him honor
While he's here to hear the praise,
Then at least let's give him homage
At the ending of his days.
Perhaps just a simple headline
In the paper that might say:
"OUR COUNTRY IS IN MOURNING,
A SOLDIER DIED TODAY.."
Pass On The Patriotism!
YOU can make a difference…
Dear Sri Rattiji
SAD BUT TRUE STATE OF AFFAIRS !
See what happened to a gallant soldier like SAM MANEKSHA. Despite his heroism hardly afew turned up to his funeral !
Regards
Mugunthanchari
A Poem Worth Reading
He was getting old and paunchy
And his hair was falling fast,
And he sat around the VFW,
Telling stories of the past.
Of a war that he once fought in
And the deeds that he had done,
In his exploits with his buddies;
They were heroes, every one.
And 'tho sometimes to his neighbors
His tales became a joke,
All his buddies listened quietly
For they knew where of he spoke.
But we'll hear his tales no longer,
For ol' Bob has passed away,
And the world's a little poorer
For a Soldier died today.
He won't be mourned by many,
Just his children and his wife.
For he lived an ordinary,
Very quiet sort of life.
He held a job and raised a family,
Going quietly on his way;
And the world won't note his passing,
'Tho a Soldier died today.
When politicians leave this earth,
Their bodies lie in state,
While thousands note their passing,
And proclaim that they were great.
Papers tell of their life stories
From the time that they were young
But the passing of a Soldier
Goes unnoticed, and unsung.
Is the greatest contribution
To the welfare of our land,
Some jerk who breaks his promise
And cons his fellow man?
Or the ordinary fellow
Who in times of war and strife,
Goes off to serve his country
And offers up his life?
The politician's stipend
And the style in which he lives,
Are often disproportionate,
To the service that he gives.
While the ordinary Soldier,
Who offered up his all,
Is paid off with a medal
And perhaps a pension, small..
It's so easy to forget them,
For it is so many times
That our Bobs and Jims and Johnnys,
Went to battle, but we know,
It is not the politicians
With their compromise and ploys,
Who won for us the freedom
That our country now enjoys.
Should you find yourself in danger,
With your enemies at hand,
Would you really want some cop-out,
With his ever waffling stand?
Or would you want a Soldier--
His home, his country, his kin,
Just a common Soldier,
Who would fight until the end.
He was just a common Soldier,
And his ranks are growing thin,
But his presence should remind us
We may need his like again.
For when countries are in conflict,
We find the Soldier's part
Is to clean up all the troubles
That the politicians start.
If we cannot do him honor
While he's here to hear the praise,
Then at least let's give him homage
At the ending of his days.
Perhaps just a simple headline
In the paper that might say:
"OUR COUNTRY IS IN MOURNING,
A SOLDIER DIED TODAY.."
Pass On The Patriotism!
YOU can make a difference…