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Wednesday, May 05, 2010

[sharetrading] Amrutanjan: Pain for suitors

 

 
Amrutanjan: Pain for suitors
Source: Business Standard

The heritage brand, which has retained its number two position through an aggressive rural push, seems to be a permanent takeover target. But the bidders have had zero luck so far

The Chennai-based Amrutanjan has been in the news as a takeover target over the past couple of years. And the buzz just refuses to die down even though the promoters have told the stock exchanges time and again (the latest denial was issued last month) that they have no intention to sell out.

The scrip has gone up over 150 per cent in the last one year because of the takeover reports. What added fuel to the fire was Emami Chairman R S Agarwal's reported statement last month that he was interested in buying Amrutanjan. His company, however, was quick to clarify that the chairman had only expressed his desire to acquire any fast moving consumer goods or pharma business or company, including Amrutanjan, within its financial and operational resources. Meanwhile, names of various other suitors including Dabur have been doing the rounds.

So what makes the 115-year-old Amutanjan brand an attractive takeover target? "It's difficult to dislodge Amrutanjan," says the executive of a firm who has been trying hard to steal some market share from the brand in the hope of improving his company's prospects in the Rs 1,500 crore pain management market. But Amrutanjan, as the executive points out, sits firm in the marketplace with a share of 29 per cent — second only to rival Zandu, which has a share of 45 per cent, and was acquired by Emami in 2008.

Emami's other pain relieving product — Mentho Plus — has a market share of 15 per cent only. Elder Healthcare's Tiger balm, on the other hand, has an even smaller share at 5 per cent, and this, despite it being a strong brand overseas.

Tiger, for the record, has a strong franchise on its home turf of Singapore. It was out licensed to India via an agreement with Elder a few years ago. The latter hoped to make a dent in the marketplace with Tiger, but to no avail. The market share continues to be in single digits though Managing Director Anuj Saxena says the brand is doing well. He says, "We spent the first few years fighting legal battles with copy cat versions of the brand. We lost some time there."

Even then, Tiger's inability to make much headway in the balm market speaks for itself — Zandu and Amrutanjan are just too strong.

For Amrutanjan, in particular, retaining its number two slot over all these years has been far from easy in a market that has seen competition growing at the same time. As an FMCG analyst points out, "When competition increases, the first to be attacked are the number two and three brands. They are the ones challengers go after typically. The number one is secure in that sense because challengers are not baying for its blood at the first instance. The number two always has a greater threat of seeing market share eroding as challengers increase."

So how has Amrutanjan managed to hold its own in a market that has seen Emami and Elder get active over the last few years, not to mention the growing threat of duplicates as well.

By staying relevant, say analysts. Amrutanjan has transformed itself into a youthful product with new packaging and variants. There are three key variants as of now - a pain balm, a strong balm and a maha strong balm. Plus, the brand has extended into segments such as roll-on liquids, cold gel packs, reusable gels, joint ache creams and sprays in quest for neo users.

Amrutanjan's pricing of its balm is also on a par with leader Zandu - Rs 20 for the standard 8-gm-pack. Tiger is slightly expensive at Rs 22, say observers. "So that gives consumers a choice of two products at the same price point," says a source.

That's not all. To increase brand recall, Amrutanjan has also changed its advertising strategy - moving away from regional-level campaigns to a national-level exercise replete with a new tagline - Be ready with Amrutanjan.

As the brand makes the transformation from regional to national, it has retained one attribute though — its grip over rural and semi-urban markets. That has been the heart of Amrutanjan's distribution strategy - keeping its key consumer profile intact even as it seeks new users.

Amrutanjan, as rivals point out, is strong in non-metro markets. "By and large, pain balms are strong in tier two and three cities. It's not an urban phenomenon unlike pain rubs and creams which are. That is because consumers in small towns and cities are comfortable using pain balms as opposed to pain rubs or creams," says an executive from Elder Healthcare.

In these small towns and cities, the fight then is a square one between Amrutanjan and Zandu, say analysts. Both have their strongholds - Zandu in the north, and Amrutanjan, in the south. Both over the years have moved to allied areas - taking the battle to each other's door steps in the process. So Amrutanjan has been fighting hard for share in the north, while Zandu has been seeking consumers in the south. Have they succeeded? For now, Zandu seems to be having an upper hand with greater market share, say analysts, though Amrutanjan is not giving up yet in its quest for market share beyond the south.

What it is banking on are its trademark properties, say sources, its distinctive yellow balm with a strong aroma. It is these medicinal properties that have ensured that consumers in the south have remained loyal to it despite the onslaught of Zandu. As an executive with a rival healthcare firm says, "People love applying a balm before retiring for the night in the south. And if that is an Amrutanjan nothing like it."

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Re: [sharetrading] Re: Invitation to connect on LinkedIn

 

I guess that, As he has joined Linkedin - All the contacts from his contact list have got this message... May be personally he has not sent it, Linkedin may have.

--- On Wed, 5/5/10, sharetrading.moderator <sharetrading.moderator@yahoo.com> wrote:

From: sharetrading.moderator <sharetrading.moderator@yahoo.com>
Subject: [sharetrading] Re: Invitation to connect on LinkedIn
To: sharetrading@yahoogroups.com
Date: Wednesday, 5 May, 2010, 1:45 PM

 
All your future mails will be moderated
Moderator

--- In sharetrading@ yahoogroups. com, Ranjit Bandivadekar <ranjitsb@.. .> wrote:
>
> LinkedIn
> ------------ Ranjit Bandivadekar requested to add you as a connection on LinkedIn:
> ------------ --------- --------- --------- ---
>
> sivaprasad,
>
> I'd like to add you to my professional network on LinkedIn.
>
> - Ranjit
>
> Accept invitation from Ranjit Bandivadekar
> http://www.linkedin .com/e/Lcd9h8QFW txelB7Sngh- PjsoAjJSw_ HKJZh_JlcDMwQ/ blk/I657897609_ 3/pmpxnSRJrSdvj4 R5fnhv9ClRsDgZp6 lQs6lzoQ5AomZIpn 8_cRYVc3oTejwTdj p9bPlngjl6h5lnbP kPcPcVdzkTcz4LrC BxbOYWrSlI/ EML_comm_ afe/
>
> View invitation from Ranjit Bandivadekar
> http://www.linkedin .com/e/Lcd9h8QFW txelB7Sngh- PjsoAjJSw_ HKJZh_JlcDMwQ/ blk/I657897609_ 3/0PnPAMdzsVe3sR dAALqnpPbOYWrSlI /svi/
>
> ------------ --------- --------- --------- ---
> DID YOU KNOW your LinkedIn profile helps you control your public image when people search for you? Setting your profile as public means your LinkedIn profile will come up when people enter your name in leading search engines. Take control of your image!
> http://www.linkedin .com/e/ewp/ inv-22/
>
>
> ------
> (c) 2010, LinkedIn Corporation
>


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**[investwise]** Eric Roseman: Are Shorts Preparing For A Sizeable Fall? Or Is It All Over for them?

 

It's important to point out that broad U.S. and international stock indexes broke above their recent highs last month, triggering a wholesale squeeze by short-sellers.

The run-up in short positions in February and early March represented one of the biggest efforts by short-sellers to make a bundle ahead of a market decline; that never happened.

Once again, markets bounced back just like they did last summer following a decline of 9% from peak-to-trough in June and early July. Stocks have been red-hot over the last 13 months with barely a 10% decline from their recent highs.

What Does it All Mean?

It's sometimes the case that, as short-sellers exit the market or significantly reduce their shorts, stocks might have only one direction to go next – down.

Of course, I have my doubts…

This market has proven me wrong over the last year with massive gains amid a successfully orchestrated U.S. and foreign government bailout, courtesy of printing presses at central banks. With credit markets pretty much healed at this point and banks fudging their accounting courtesy of GAAP changes last May, investors have increasingly allocated capital to stocks.

Imagine, for example, what happens if investors lose their love affair for bond funds and opt for stock funds again?

Bond funds have seen more than $200 billion of inflows over the last 12 months, compared to barely a dollar of inflows or flat inflows for equity funds.

Bill Fleckenstein, probably one of the best short-sellers along with Jim Chanos and David Rocker, recently admitted to bailing out of his short positions, "I'm not short because for the most part I can't find ideas that seem to be working and I think other people might be in the same camp."

After maintaining a short bias for 12 long years, including some huge gains from 2000 to 2002 and especially from late 2007 to early 2009, Fleckenstein (Fleckenstein Capital in Seattle) closed- out his shorts last year.

Well, that might be a signal for contrarians or bears.

Through yesterday, the stock market has gone 42 days without suffering a 1%-or-higher loss in a single trading session. But the bears are now in hibernation and more bulls might join the rally.

Still, you have to wonder how long this can continue…



Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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[sharetrading] Sugar

 

Sugar stocks are ideally at a good add point….

Take ur own decision

Abe

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[sharetrading] NIFTY

 

There comes a point in time, when some risk has to be taken. Presently US chart have indicated that it is in a range of 10770-10900. It needs to break upwards of 10920 for confirmation that a bottom has been made.

Take a risk with recent low and GO LONG at least intra day and close position if close < 5230. CF > 5230. ID SL 5066/5055. Buy as close as possible on indicators……

Dissuade from shorting market, unless w/SL.

Market expected to open low and rise…..

 

Abe

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[indianstockmarket] COMM LEVEL PLAYING SHEET [1 Attachment]

 
[Attachment(s) from Ravindra Chauhan included below]

Dear All,
 
Pl find attached Comm Level Playing Sheet.
 
Regards,
 
Ravindra Chauhan.

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Attachment(s) from Ravindra Chauhan

1 of 1 File(s)

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-----------------------------------------------------
Blog & Register for free letter http://crnindia.blogspot.com/ 
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**[investwise]** Jim walker, Rogoff, Chanos, Faber Predict A Crash In China---soon, very soon!

 

Investor Marc Faber said China's economy will slow and possibly "crash" within a year as declines in stock and commodity prices signal the nation's property bubble is set to burst.

The Shanghai Composite Index has failed to regain its 2009 high while industrial commodities and shares of Australian resource exporters are acting "heavy," Faber said. The opening of the World Expo in Shanghai last week is "not a particularly good omen," he said, citing a property bust and depression that followed the 1873 World Exhibition in Vienna.

"The market is telling you that something is not quite right," Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Hong Kong today. "The Chinese economy is going to slow down regardless. It is more likely that we will even have a crash sometime in the next nine to 12 months."

An index tracking Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong dropped 1.8 percent today, the most in two weeks, after the central bank raised reserve requirements for the third time this year. The Shanghai Composite has slumped 12 percent this year, Asia's worst performer, as policy makers seek to rein in a lending boom that's spurred record gains in property prices. China's markets are shut for a holiday today.

Copper touched a seven-week low and BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest mining company, fell the most since February on concern spending in the world's third-largest economy will slow and after Australia boosted taxes on commodities producers. Rio Tinto Ltd., the third-largest, slid as much as 6 percent.

Chanos, Rogoff

Faber joins hedge fund manager Jim Chanos and Harvard University'sKenneth Rogoff in warning of a crash in China.

China is "on a treadmill to hell" because it's hooked on property development for driving growth, Chanos said in an interview last month. As much as 60 percent of the country's gross domestic product relies on construction, he said. Rogoff said in February a debt-fueled bubble in China may trigger a regional recession within a decade.

The government has banned loans for third homes and raised mortgage rates and down-payment requirements for second-home purchases. Prices rose 11.7 percent across 70 cities in March from a year earlier, the most since data began in 2005.

The government has stopped short of raising interest rates to contain property prices. Within an hour of the central bank announcement on reserve ratios, Finance Minister Xie Xuren said that officials remained committed to expansionary policies to cement the nation's recovery.

Stocks 'Fully Priced'

The nation's economy grew 11.9 percent in the first quarter, the fastest pace in almost three years. The government projects gross domestic product growth for the year of about 8 percent.

The clampdown on property speculation may prompt investors to turn to the nation's stock market, Faber said. Still, shares are "fully priced" and Chinese investors may instead become "big buyers" of gold, he said.

BlackRock Inc. is among money managers reducing their holdings on Chinese stocks on expectations that economic growth has peaked. The BlackRock Emerging Markets Fund has widened its "underweight" position for China versus the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to about 7.5 percent from 4.6 percent at the end of March, the fund's London-based co-manager Dan Tubbssaid.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., China Construction Bank Corp. and Bank of China Ltd, the nation's three largest banks, are trading near their lowest valuations on record as rising profits are eclipsed by concern bad loans will increase.

Local Governments

Citigroup Inc. warned in March that in a "worst case scenario," the non-performing loans of local-government investment vehicles, used to channel money to stimulus projects, could swell to 2.4 trillion yuan by 2011.

Housing prices nationwide may fall as much as 20 percent in the second half of the year on government measures to curb speculation, BNP Paribas said April 23. Under a stress test conducted by the Shanghai branch of the China Banking Regulatory Commission in February, local banks' ratio of delinquent mortgages would triple should home prices in the country's commercial center decline 10 percent.

Shanghai is projecting as many as 70 million visitors to the $44 billion World Expo, more than 10 times the number who traveled to the 2008 Beijing Olympics. More than 433,000 people visited the 5.3 square-kilometer (3.3 square-mile) park on its first weekend.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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INVESTMENTS IN INDIA
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Stocks, mutual funds and the entire investment gamut.  Only financing/investment avenues in India will be discussed. 

For any assistance, questions or improvement ideas, contact investwise-owner@yahoogroups.co.in

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**[investwise]** Rogers: Stay Long Gold, Silver, Emerging Markets

 

Commodities guru Jim Rogers turns Oracle of Doom as he predicts more turmoil in global financial markets. In an exclusive interview with ET NOW's Andy Mukherjee, Mr Rogers predicts currency crises, more national bankruptcies — and he's shorting emerging markets. 

You have been warning us for quite sometime about the currency crisis. Is that what is finally upon us? 
The currency crisis has been going on for a while. It did not start this week. It started maybe with Iceland or many other countries that have been having problems. The currency crisis is going to get worse. Over the next year or two, we are going to see more, so prepare yourself. 

Do you think the Eurozone is going to shrink because of what we are witnessing in Portugal, Greece and Spain? 
Eventually the euro, unfortunately, is going to break up because it keeps weakening itself from within. If they would let Greece go bankrupt, for instance, it would strengthen the euro, it would strengthen the Eurozone because then people would know you have to maintain a sound economy. You have to maintain a sound currency and everybody would jump in and buy the euro, I would also buy more if that would be the case. Weakening from within and continuing to lend money and paper over problems is not a solution for a sound currency. I do own the euro, but I do not think this is the proper approach. 

We are also seeing the impact of the crisis on most commodity markets. Do you think that this is just temporary and commodity is still the place for investors to be? 
Yes, gold is making all-time highs in some currencies. So some currencies are doing well. But if the world economy gets better, then obviously commodities are going to do better because the world will use more and there are shortages developing. But let's assume the worst. Let's assume world economies do not get better, then I would rather be in commodities in most things because governments are going to print even more money, and whenever you have printed money throughout history, it has led to higher prices for real goods whether it is silver or natural gas. So, I would rather own commodities than most things in the world in the next two or three years. 

Looking at the Rogers International Commodities Index, I find that rubber has done exceptionally well this year and so has lumber. What kind of commodities do you like at the moment for the long term? 
I prefer agriculture just because it has not moved up as much. Metals have boomed in the past 15-18 months, energy is up a lot in the last 15 or 18 months. Agriculture for the most part is still very depressed. Yes, you are right, rubber has done well, some things have done well but for the most part, agricultural products are still very depressed including sugar. Sugar went up a lot in the past couple of years but it is still very depressed compared to its all-time high. 

It is a known fact that global markets are really swayed by movements across the globe. Do you expect to see any cataclysmic events in 2010 or do you think it is going to be a largely benign kind of year ? 
I have no idea. There will be more currency crises, more currency turmoil over the next year or two or three. We have huge imbalances. All the credit to nations in the world or in Asia and all the debt — you know who the debtors are and you know where they are. Those imbalances have not been sorted out yet. Throughout history, most imbalances like this have been sorted out in the currency markets or once upon a time when we were on the gold exchange through the gold markets and so we have more problems coming. 

You may well see some more countries going bankrupt in this period of time because these imbalances still exist. I would be careful if I were you. I have started selling short in the last month or so. I have had virtually no shorts. In fact, I have had no shorts since the fall of 2008 but in the last month or so, I started adding to my short positions for the first time in 18 months. 


What are you shorting? 
I am shorting a stock market index in the US, I am shorting an emerging market index and I am shorting one of the large western international financial institutions. It is an emerging market index; it is not a specific country. It is an index of many emerging markets and that is mainly because the emerging markets have grown the most during the past few months of this big recovery. So that is where some of the excesses are developing. As for the large western bank, it is a bank which people think is extremely sound. If I am right, there are going to be more currency problems and more turmoil in the markets, it will have to come down. 

Are you bearish on all Asian equity markets or are there any pockets of value that you like? 
I am not buying any stock markets anywhere in the world. I have not bought any stock markets for the past 18 months. I have been playing the world economy through the commodity markets for those 18 months and the currency markets. And as I said, now I am starting to sell short but I have nothing to do with any Asian market. I have not bought any market anywhere because I have been leery of this big rally in the stock market. It has been caused by a lot of money being pumped into the world economy. If the world economy gets better, commodities will do well and they have. If the world economy does not get better, commodity is going to be a better place to be than stocks, all over the world, not just Asia. 

You said you are shorting western financial institutions. Now if I am not wrong, you were doing the same thing in the second half of 2008 and we saw what happened back then. Are you concerned or worried that something like that is going to happen again? Do you think another financial crisis is going to be upon us when investors are just going to get scared about banks? 
Well, I was short on major western financial institutions in 2008, I am delighted and surprised you remember but I was. Then there were great excesses in the western financial community. We do not have that kind of excess now. We have excesses but nothing like we did then. I am just shorting this major western financial institution because it's very highly priced and if the markets are going to consolidate, it will be one of the first to get hit because as there will be consolidation because of currency turmoil and financial market turmoil. I do not see a bubble in finance like we had two or three years ago. I only see two bubbles in the world, one is the Chinese urban to real estate and the other is the United States' government bond market. 

The latest data indicates that EPFR funds have been pulling out of the emerging markets. But if China does slow down over the next six months and Europe comes out relatively unharmed, what do you think will happen to fund flows to emerging markets over the next six months? 
Well, I am not quite sure that you would see emerging markets slowing down if Europe did. If Europe and America slow down, that will affect markets everywhere. Europe and America, for instance, are over 10 times as big as the Chinese market. People talk about China, people talk about India, but these are very small markets or economies compared to the major economies in the West and in Japan, so if the West slows down, of course, it is going to affect everybody. 

I do not see the emerging markets slowing down and the West reviving because the West is so very big and it needs most emerging markets. Most emerging markets are commodity-based economies and if the world economy does well, the commodities are going to do okay, so I do not see the emerging markets slowing down if the West continues to revive. I started selling short in emerging market index but that's just because the emerging markets were the ones which went up the most in the past few months..
Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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http://in.groups.yahoo.com/group/investwise/

INVESTMENTS IN INDIA
We are low-risk, long-term investors. 

Stocks, mutual funds and the entire investment gamut.  Only financing/investment avenues in India will be discussed. 

For any assistance, questions or improvement ideas, contact investwise-owner@yahoogroups.co.in

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NEW! ==== Check our LINKS and FILES sections for a world of information. REGULARLY UPDATED.

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