Sensex

Sunday, August 19, 2007

$$ DreamGains !! $$ MoneyTimes


__,_._,___

$$ DreamGains !! $$ FW: Weekly Stock Idea By Sanjay Chhabria: 20th Aug 2007

 

 

From: ValueNotes.com [mailto:technicals@valuenotes.com]
Sent: 20 August 2007 06:20
To: satish.khetan@gmail.com
Subject: Weekly Stock Idea By Sanjay Chhabria: 20th Aug 2007

 

By continuing to read this article, you have read and agreed to the disclaimers at the bottom of this page.

SANJAY CHHABRIA's WEEKLY STOCK IDEA(S) -20th August 2007

Vol IV No 49

Please read the disclaimer at the end of this page.

"Remember, it's better to learn from other people's mistakes as much as possible".-Warren Buffett

"If principles can become dated, they're not principles". -Warren Buffett

"When proper temperament joins with proper intellectual framework, then you get rational behavior". -Warren Buffett

This Week's Stock Idea(s)- GlaxoSmithkline Consumer Healthcare Ltd(Rs 595) & Biocon Ltd(Rs 428)

Given the current market conditions, Investors would do well to accumulate gradually on declines.

GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare Ltd(Rs 595)(BSE Code- 500676 NSE Code-GSKCONS)- GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare (GSKCH) is an Indian associate of GlaxoSmithKline plc UK, (which holds a 43% equity stake). GSKCH is one of the largest players in the health food drinks industry in India. The company, with its manufacturing plants located in Nabha, Rajahmundry and Sonepat, has a workforce of over 2,700. GSKCH's flagship product Horlicks is a widely regarded and highly respected brand, present in India for over 100 years. GSKCH dominates the Rs 1300 cr. Indian malted beverage market with a significant 65% share (volume terms). Its white beverage brand `Horlicks' has led the market growth of this sector in India and contributes around 80% to the company's revenues. The company also manufactures and markets Boost, Viva, Maltova, Biscuits and in addition promotes and distributes a number of products in diverse categories, including prominent brands such as Eno, Crocin and Iodex. With a strong marketing and distribution network comprising over 1,800 wholesalers and direct coverage of over 4,00,000 retail outlets, GSKCH has a market share of around 70% of the health beverage market.

Innovation continues to be the focal point in GSKCH `s manufacturing, sales, marketing and various brand-building efforts. Increased health consciousness within the stressful urban lifestyle offers encouraging opportunities for science-based nutritional products. GSKCH's global standard, state-of-the-art R&D center, has enabled the R&D team to enhance the size of the portfolio it can handle and help meet its goal of increasing the contribution of sales from new products. In the past 36 months, GSKCH has unveiled many new products, leveraging the health platform

GSKCH sales for the Q2 ended June 2007 increased by 18% to Rs 315.60 cr. compared to the corresponding period of previous year. The rise was on the strength of double-digit growth registered by the company's flagship brands Horlicks & Boost and aggressive sales strategy. The brands grew by 18% in value terms. Boost registered a strong growth of 20% in volume terms. The company's Chocolate Horlicks drove the performance with a large-scale sampling and an excellent tie-up with Hollywood movie Spiderman-3. As such, operating profit margin of the company increased by 130 basis points to 18.5%. The resulted net profit of the company grew by 37% to Rs 42.30 cr. For half year ended June 07, the company's sales increased by 18% to Rs 642.10 cr. and net profit increased by 29% to Rs 84.60 cr.. Based on half yearly results, the company is likely to post an EPS of Rs 37- Rs 38 for the year ending Dec. 2007. For the year ended Dec. 2006, GSKCH had posted net sales of Rs 1111.9 cr.(up 15%) and net profit of Rs 126.9 cr.(up 18%)

Going forward the company expects its brands such as Horlicks and Boost to lead the growth and it will continue to invest aggressively in these brands. India is also a high potential market and as announced earlier, its programme of targeted acquisitions of nutritional brands remains firmly on track. The next-best alternative to the acquisitions not materialising is buyback of shares. The company's surplus cash is likely to increase to Rs 350 cr. by end-CY07

GSKCH is also planning to expand its reach over a period as it sees its products as health-drink alternatives. Globally, the company has several health supplements and products which hold relevance for the Indian market. The management is looking at launching them in India. Besides the launch of a new category by end-CY07, the company is actively scouting for acquisitions. The company aims to acquire nutritional and over-the-counter medicinal brands, technologies and businesses. The launch, which is likely to be in the health food segment, would be in a different format and could develop into a big category going forward. Further, GSKCH is expected to introduce some of its global portfolio brands in India. On a equity of Rs 42.06 cr, the CY07 (E), EPS works out to Rs 37-38. The share price trades at Rs 595. PE works out to just 15.8. This is low for GSKCH, which has a commanding market share and solid growth prospects. Investors can accumulate the GSKCH stock at this level and add more on declines in the range of Rs 550- Rs 575 for a price target of Rs 825-Rs 850 in the medium-long term.

Biocon Ltd(Rs 428)(Rs 5 paid up)(BSE Code- 532523 NSE Code-BIOCON)- Biocon is India's largest biotechnology company with presence in biopharmaceuticals, enzymes, custom research and clinical research. It started as an enzymes (organic chemicals used in fermentation process) manufacturer and leveraged its expertise in fermentation to evolve into an integrated biopharmaceutical company with strengths in microbial techniques, manufacturing and marketing. The company has two subsidiaries - Syngene and Clinigene - which are involved in custom research and clinical research respectively. These subsidiaries contribute over 14% to the total consolidated revenues of the company (as per FY07 numbers). In July 2007, Biocon announced the sale of its enzymes business to Novozymes in a bid to focus on its core businesses of biopharmaceuticals and contract research. With successful initiatives in clinical development, bioprocessing and global marketing, Biocon delivers products and solutions to partners and customers across the globe. Many of these products have USFDA and EMEA acceptance. Biocon launched the world's first recombinant human insulin, INSUGEN® in November 2004 using Pichia expression and India's first indigenously produced monoclonal antibody BIOMAb- EGFRTM.

Sales for the Q1 ended June 07 grew by an impressive 28% to Rs 271 cr.. Biopharmaceuticals and contract research sales increased by 28% to Rs 206 cr. and 52% to Rs 44 cr. respectively. However, Enzymes sales declined by 5% to Rs 21 cr.. Operating margin expanded by a healthy 250 bps to 28% catapulting operating profit to increase by 41% to Rs 76 cr. and net profit increased by 36% to Rs 53 cr. The highlight of the quarter was the sharp improvement in gross margin driven by licensing income (US$ 3.5 million), higher contribution from insulin, and a 52% growth in the high-margin syngene/clinigene operations. Statins account for about a third of the business. The company has been reducing its dependency on statins quarter on quarter. The company's product `BIOMAb EGFR' for the treatment of head and neck cancers, which was launched in the domestic market in FY07 and its insulin brand `Insugen' were the other contributors to the overall growth in the biopharmaceutical business. As far as alliances are concerned, during the quarter, Biocon entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with a global biopharmaceutical company to develop and market a biosimilar version of G-CSF (granulocyte-colony stimulating factor) in North America and the European Union. Under the terms of the agreement, Biocon will receive an upfront licensing fee and once approval is received in the licensed territories, the company will receive royalties from sales. Biocon also entered into an agreement with Invitrogen to market insulin to the global cell culture market.

For the year ended March 2007, Biocon's net sales stood at Rs 986 cr. witnessing a 25% growth. In terms of contribution to sales, revenues from the biopharmaceuticals and enzymes business grew 20% to Rs. 823 cr., contributing 83% to operating revenues in FY 2007. Revenues from Research Services and Licensing grew 63% to Rs. 163 cr. contributing 17% to operating revenues in FY 2007.OPM declined by 40bps to 28.7%. However, consequent operating profit spurted by 24% y-o-y to Rs 283 cr. and net profit amounted to Rs 200 cr., up by 15% y-o-y. On a equity of 50 cr.(Promoters'stake- 60%) the EPS on a Rs 5 paid up share stood at Rs 20

After divesting its enzymes business vertical to Novozymes for US$ 115 million, Biocon will focus on its core bio-pharmaceuticals business. This deal is a very favourable for the company as it releases huge funds from a business which was not growing as expected. Biocon expects to use these proceeds for innovation-led businesses acquisitions in biopharma/custom research services and also products. Over the past couple of years, Biocon has invested over Rs 550 crore to expand its fermentation and chemical synthesis infrastructure and plans to spend another Rs 250 crore in future. The full benefits of this expansion will continue to accrue in future. Biocon is also spending heavily on R&D. Its oral insulin program has successfully completed Phase I human clinical trials and will soon enter Phase II human clinical trials. This, in turn, will create new growth avenue for the long term. Biocon's strategy to increasingly focus on insulin, immunosuppressants, branded formulations and monoclonal antibodies in a bid to reduce its dependence on statins will be critical to drive growth in the future. In FY 2008, Biocon can be expected to post sales and net profit of Rs 1125 cr. and Rs 240 crore, respectively. On an equity of Rs 50 crore and face value of Rs 10 per share, EPS works out to Rs 24. At the current price of Rs 428, P/E works out to 17.8. Investors can accumulate the Biocon stock at this level and add more on eclines in the range of Rs 385- Rs 425 for a price target of Rs 550-Rs 575 in the medium-long term.

Sanjay Chhabria is an equity analyst and investment consultant based at Raipur (Chhattisgarh). At the time of writing this, he doesn't have any position in the stocks mentioned above. He welcomes comments, feedback & investor queries at valueinv@sify.com. The above report is based on fundamental research and analysis and is meant for investors, who want to invest with a medium to long-term perspective. It is not meant for short-term investors or traders. The name weekly stock idea(s) does not mean that the stocks mentioned as buys in this report are for one week or short term. The name weekly stock Idea(s) only denotes the frequency of this report, which is weekly.

Disclaimer- Sanjay Chhabria (Author), does not accept any liability arising from the use of this report. Under no circumstances does the information in this report represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and does not constitute a solicitation to any person to buy or sell a security. While the information contained therein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for the accuracy of its contents. Investors are advised to satisfy themselves before making any investments. Though all care is taken in preparing this report, subscribers are cautioned that prices of equity shares may rise or fall in a manner not foreseen. Subscribers and readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their actions and shall not hold the Author liable for any investment decisions/ actions based on the Content provided. Investment in stock market is risky and volatile

This newsletter is brought to you by
Disclaimer: This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. ValueNotes is an unbiased aggregator and provides a platform for a variety of analysts/ writers to publish their information and analysis, but ValueNotes does not promote or ascribe to the views of individual analysts/writers who write on ValueNotes. Neither ValueNotes nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article, or for errors of fact or opinion. Readers who use this information for any purpose (including trading or investing) clearly understand and accept that it is their sole decision, and that the risk is entirely theirs. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

__._,_.___
Regards

BigGains !!
Recent Activity
Visit Your Group
SPONSORED LINKS
Yahoo! Finance

It's Now Personal

Guides, news,

advice & more.

Need traffic?

Drive customers

With search ads

on Yahoo!

Yahoo! Groups HD

The official Samsung

Y! Group for HDTVs

and devices.

.

__,_._,___

$$ DreamGains !! $$ FW: Weekly Newsletter KTP200807

Trade4Profit
KALPATARU
- Trade4Profit
C-106/B, KALKAJI, NEW DELHI - 110019 (INDIA)
Tel: 011-41601206/ 0-98111-11353
*2 Day Trading System in 'F&O' Scrips by SMS/Chat-Box/Wireless Sets
*Intra-Day Real-Time Calls through Chat-Box/ SMS
*Daily Newsletters for Day-Traders & Investors
*Portfolio Advisory & Technical Quaries
*Special Services for High Networth Investors

Website - : www.trade4profit.org

20th August 2007

India's First Technical Analysts to provide Real-Time (Online) Trading Recommendations since 1998

* Attn. Day Traders / Swing Traders / Investors !
Do Not Mix-Up your Trading & Investment Strategies
Any Stock Bullish for Intra-Day may be Bearish in Short Term but again Bullish in
Medium Term Charts or Bearish for Long Term or Vice a Versa

(First Read the 'Disclaimer' - Click Here)

Nifty (Weekly Chart) !


* Nifty Weekly !
Bounce Back from Crucial Support - Decisive Break below 4000 to wipe Off 400-600 Pts



By continuing to read this Newsletter, you have read and agreed to the disclaimer posted at www.trade4profit.org

To Understand as how to intreperate the Newsletters - CLICK HERE

On-Line Recommendation Portfolio (+) 25665.33% in 105 Months
(Hypothetical Performance)

The "Rs.10 Lac-Portfolio" (+)1148.25% in 330 weeks
(Hypothetical Performance)

Important Support & Resistance Levels of Sensex/ Nifty / Nifty 'Near Month'

Index

Close

Change

3- DEMA

7- DEMA

Sup-2

Sup-1

Trend

Res-1

Res-2

5D-High

5D-Low

* BSE - SENSEX

14141.52

-216.69

14411.13

14688.56

13577.26

13806.81

14079.99

14416.05

14655.21

15069.64

13779.88

* CNX BANK INDEX

6245.60

-60.15

6376.74

6543.43

5959.33

6079.25

6234.97

6402.05

6542.88

6735.45

6083.85

* CNX IT INDEX

4704.45

-108.65

4794.53

4863.13

4444.02

4556.78

4692.70

4841.02

4965.83

4995.45

4556.45

* CNX MIDCAP

5650.55

-113.15

5765.25

5873.92

5397.28

5502.89

5653.27

5801.60

5938.53

6039.10

5519.40

* S&P CNX NIFTY

4108.05

-70.55

4191.46

4275.94

3935.35

4006.43

4093.78

4195.83

4273.34

4395.50

4002.20

- NSE50 1 MONTH

4091.30

-47.80

4167.01

4248.51

3876.91

3968.94

4065.42

4188.28

4275.03

4371.35

3953.00

Change in Indices in last 5 Days

Index

Close

L.Change

2DayBack

3DayBack

4DayBack

5DayBack

* BSE - 500 CO'S

5530.94

-92.20

-244.33

-5.70

58.17

-82.26

* BSE - SENSEX

14141.52

-216.69

-642.70

-16.30

148.96

-231.90

* CNX BANK INDEX

6245.60

-60.15

-396.60

22.60

33.70

-191.15

* CNX IT INDEX

4704.45

-108.65

-143.45

0.75

-20.55

28.05

* S&P CNX 500

3447.40

-58.70

-154.80

1.00

31.20

-55.40

* S&P CNX NIFTY

4108.05

-70.55

-191.60

-3.45

40.30

-69.85

- CNX BANK INDEX - 1 M

6263.70

-57.90

-391.10

4.05

41.55

-174.70

- CNX IT - 1 MONTH

4707.35

-87.60

-143.70

-1.55

15.05

15.50

- NSE50 1 MONTH

4091.30

-47.80

-207.60

-8.90

56.40

-66.20

Gainers / Losers & Stocks with Spurt in Volume (Min Avg Volume >50000/Day)

Scrip

Close

L.Close

Change%

Scrip

Volume

3 Days Avg Volume

Vol Change (Times)

Gainers

Volume Toppers

CHAMBAL FERT

37.40

35.20

6.25

ALOK INDS

6584149

2701830

2.44

SOBHA DEVELOPERS

780.75

743.95

4.95

GEOMETRIC SOFTWA

361393

149890

2.41

LML LTD

15.15

14.45

4.84

KARNATAKA BANK

907010

378149

2.40

UNITECH

483.85

466.80

3.65

MAHA SEAMLESS

340104

145501

2.34

BANK OF RAJASTHA

101.95

98.45

3.56

SESA GOA

93523

43304

2.16

ANSAL PROPERTIES

258.40

250.00

3.36

LML LTD

6512129

3131621

2.08

UTI BANK

575.15

557.85

3.10

GVK POWER & INFRA

241501

124063

1.95

TECH MAHINDRA

1277.30

1244.45

2.64

WOCKHARDT LTD

81468

42683

1.91

TRIVENI ENGG

63.90

62.30

2.57

MATRIX LABS

121636

64556

1.88

LIC HOUSING FIN

182.15

178.55

2.02

BANK OF BARODA

1311653

698048

1.88

SUN PHARMACEUTIC

935.60

918.60

1.85

GREAT EASTERN SHIPPING

932539

500072

1.86

Losers

ANDHRA BANK

1699282

914040

1.86

SAKTHI SUGARS

65.55

73.65

-11.00

STERLITE INDS (I)

2292804

1242116

1.85

HIND PETROLEUM

225.25

246.35

-8.57

SATYAM COMPUTER

7712462

4182778

1.84

JSW STEEL

568.40

613.30

-7.32

CORPORATION BANK

316388

172802

1.83

STERLITE INDS (I)

518.70

558.95

-7.20

INFOSYS TECHNOLO

3440529

1922950

1.79

INDIABULLS FINANCIA

462.05

495.65

-6.78

TATA STEEL

10466918

5868511

1.78

ORCHID CHEM

200.40

214.90

-6.75

BHARTI AIRTEL

3552966

1998279

1.78

GTL INFRASTRUCTURE

31.85

34.00

-6.32

MUKAND LTD

166594

93898

1.77

SREI INFRAST

86.20

91.95

-6.25

APTECH LTD

315649

178091

1.77

MUKAND LTD

68.15

72.50

-6.00

INDIA INFOLINE

2025805

1149218

1.76

AFTEK

58.60

62.30

-5.94

ORCHID CHEM

644583

370382

1.74

SATYAM COMPUTER

440.25

467.65

-5.86

LUPIN LABS

160360

92532

1.73

Support/Resistance for Day Traders (20.08.2007)

We are giving below the Important Support and Resistance Levels of few most actively traded scrips of NSE/BSE (including F&O). Many Traders successfully use Support/ Resistance levels for day- trading. Traders are advised to read the Disclaimer and Rules for Successful trading & apply Stop Loss on all trades.
(Conditions - Avg Daily Volume in 5 days >250000)

Scrip

Close

Change

3- DEMA

7- DEMA

Sup-2

Sup-1

Trend

Res-1

Res-2

5D-High

5D-Low

ACC LTD

950.70

-28.15

969.69

985.13

891.43

917.53

956.42

989.75

1026.43

1039.80

925.55

BAJAJ AUTO

2252.60

-57.85

2295.60

2313.73

2103.45

2169.63

2287.53

2370.98

2483.73

2690.00

2210.00

BANK OF BARODA

264.75

-7.00

273.68

283.37

242.68

252.73

266.63

278.71

292.01

299.80

245.05

BANK OF INDIA

229.50

2.35

233.34

238.62

217.82

222.81

228.68

235.40

240.73

254.00

222.55

BHARAT PETROLEUM

307.50

-8.55

313.16

315.49

291.53

298.37

310.58

319.76

331.26

325.95

302.20

BHARTI AIRTEL

796.95

-4.25

812.56

834.45

729.50

760.29

784.75

821.55

844.16

861.00

750.00

BHEL

1559.95

-43.65

1605.33

1647.26

1512.03

1530.16

1566.95

1596.88

1629.91

1727.80

1541.00

BONGAINGAON REFI

55.70

-1.90

55.64

54.37

52.71

54.00

56.32

58.03

60.22

59.30

50.10

CANARA BANK

244.80

0.25

249.98

256.92

234.43

238.70

245.60

251.73

258.04

273.00

240.10

DR. REDDY'S LABS

625.20

-2.50

628.67

631.39

602.32

611.43

623.48

637.31

647.85

641.90

607.00

GAS AUTHORTY (I)

297.05

-14.60

305.48

312.68

280.69

287.76

301.72

311.06

324.33

323.00

293.15

GUJ AMBUJA CEMEN

126.60

-0.65

127.39

127.92

120.32

122.99

126.60

130.22

133.53

132.70

121.10

HDFC BANK

1068.10

-25.90

1093.46

1118.01

1028.50

1044.32

1072.37

1096.27

1121.76

1152.00

1051.20

HDFC LTD

1899.60

16.35

1911.20

1938.31

1728.90

1807.27

1873.35

1966.05

2027.76

2000.00

1785.55

HERO HONDA

623.65

-20.45

637.19

648.96

592.06

605.53

628.50

646.71

668.22

679.00

611.90

HIND LEVER

192.50

-3.85

195.59

198.11

187.62

189.34

192.78

195.96

198.93

204.70

190.10

HIND PETROLEUM

225.25

-21.10

237.37

244.60

211.94

217.75

229.15

236.69

247.57

254.95

222.20

ICICI BANK

824.70

-7.45

839.55

858.69

775.91

797.24

830.47

858.07

889.38

888.80

805.00

IDBI

116.45

-1.35

118.27

117.90

105.79

110.69

115.83

121.62

126.50

128.40

108.00

IDFC

114.15

-5.45

118.52

122.11

97.85

105.59

113.60

122.20

129.97

129.85

105.30

IFCI LTD

62.35

-0.60

63.24

63.33

56.98

59.43

62.07

65.00

67.49

68.40

52.40

INFOSYS TECHNOLO

1854.55

-58.55

1893.42

1915.68

1667.92

1754.42

1838.88

1939.45

2019.72

1970.00

1743.15

ITC LTD

153.55

-4.05

157.39

161.07

148.44

150.42

155.15

158.29

162.66

166.55

152.40

JAIPRAKASH ASSOC

794.60

-5.85

809.39

820.79

732.25

760.49

788.20

822.45

848.32

865.95

756.00

JET AIRWAYS

739.60

-1.70

746.66

749.77

714.26

724.17

742.62

758.12

774.80

782.90

722.25

LARSEN & TOUBRO

2308.05

-12.45

2341.94

2389.36

2197.48

2244.19

2299.23

2363.36

2412.90

2466.00

2241.00

LIC HOUSING FIN

182.15

3.60

182.15

183.77

171.92

176.36

180.85

186.67

190.73

189.70

175.50

MAHANAGAR TELEPH

133.75

-2.00

136.42

139.45

127.19

129.97

133.65

137.44

140.80

145.05

130.20

MAHINDRA & MAHIN

650.95

-2.95

659.35

671.80

613.05

629.59

646.08

667.53

682.49

695.00

626.00

MARUTI UDYOG

778.65

-14.80

793.91

808.34

685.71

729.34

762.48

811.99

843.39

843.00

715.00

MPHASIS

291.05

0.90

291.88

292.39

269.30

279.10

288.40

300.40

309.02

304.10

263.10

ONGC CORPN

783.95

-34.90

809.65

833.95

730.71

754.41

795.65

825.36

864.81

861.10

768.00

ORIENTAL BANK

198.65

-10.30

207.78

217.04

177.14

187.16

200.02

211.56

223.98

230.90

189.00

POLARIS SOFTWARE

116.20

-1.40

117.46

117.71

106.37

110.86

117.07

122.44

128.39

125.30

106.20

RANBAXY LABS

351.30

-9.55

359.12

364.95

330.01

339.35

353.10

365.11

378.04

380.00

342.00

RELIANCE CAPITAL

1004.50

-9.00

1035.56

1076.12

924.77

960.93

1001.17

1044.94

1082.87

1135.00

960.00

RELIANCE COMM

493.40

-1.80

502.20

515.22

451.51

470.64

487.33

510.19

525.74

531.40

465.75

RELIANCE ENERGY

718.25

1.25

726.93

739.38

657.38

685.17

712.37

745.59

771.14

794.70

681.00

RELIANCE INDS

1752.90

13.85

1768.78

1793.71

1650.44

1695.18

1736.67

1794.61

1831.94

1840.00

1683.20

SATYAM COMPUTER

440.25

-27.40

456.03

464.75

404.54

420.76

443.43

463.02

484.69

487.95

425.00

STATE BANK

1519.20

-1.75

1544.90

1580.84

1429.22

1468.59

1507.98

1558.80

1594.61

1636.00

1461.05

STEEL AUTHORITY

137.60

-4.55

141.52

144.66

131.82

134.20

139.12

142.54

147.13

153.40

136.05

STERLITE INDS (I)

518.70

-40.25

550.82

577.59

454.99

484.92

535.57

569.55

619.11

618.50

503.00

SUZLON ENERGY

1174.75

-28.35

1211.55

1240.70

1123.93

1144.96

1176.92

1206.84

1236.00

1322.90

1150.00

SYNDICATE BANK

73.40

-0.90

74.74

76.55

70.25

71.55

73.37

75.22

76.86

79.70

71.70

TATA MOTORS

641.15

-19.35

656.94

665.53

620.57

628.46

649.52

662.29

681.82

698.50

638.40

TATA POWER COMP

701.30

6.70

701.75

701.12

603.83

649.97

721.70

773.33

843.60

791.80

662.50

TATA STEEL

544.40

-31.05

576.52

606.58

504.22

522.29

548.30

570.52

595.28

650.10

527.50

TCS

1056.15

-31.85

1083.57

1105.43

1011.70

1029.99

1062.78

1089.08

1119.37

1153.50

1039.20

UNION BANK

129.20

-2.80

134.39

140.27

120.60

124.42

129.97

134.77

140.02

150.00

125.50

VSNL

370.25

-11.05

385.05

403.59

352.37

359.93

373.42

383.79

396.41

428.90

364.00

WIPRO LTD

474.40

4.95

474.56

475.51

431.36

451.14

467.13

490.49

505.39

484.40

445.00

ZEE TELEFILMS

291.85

-8.30

298.51

304.44

268.17

278.93

290.27

303.24

313.90

314.00

278.05

Bar Reversal Up/ Down, Engulfing in Daily Chats (Min Avg Volume >100000/Day)

Scrip

Scrip

Scrip

Scrip

Bar-Up

Bar-Dn

Eng-Bull

Eng-Bear

RELIANCE INDS

ICICI BANK

HDFC LTD

INFOSYS TECHNOLO

RELIANCE ENERGY

BAJAJ AUTO

CHAMBAL FERT

IDEA CELLULAR

HDFC LTD

GRASIM INDS

ANSAL PROPERTIES

HERO HONDA

UNITECH

HCL TECHNOLOGIES

LIC HOUSING FIN

GAS AUTHORTY (I)

PUNJ LLOYD

VOLTAS LTD

HANUNG TOYS & TEXTILES

INDIAN OIL CORP

UTI BANK

GAS AUTHORTY (I)

 

GUJ NRE COKE

WIPRO LTD

DR. REDDY'S LABS

 

SASKEN COMMUN

IVRCL INFRA

GITANJALI GEMS

 

VIJAYA BANK

BANK OF INDIA

FEDERAL BANK

 

AMAR REMEDIES

CIPLA LTD

ZEE NEWS

 

 

TATA POWER COMP

MINDTREE CONSULTING

 

 

What the Charts Foretell
(FOR Short Term Investors)


* NIFTY/ SENSEX !

Nifty - Technical Rally on Charts - Decisive Close below 4000 can wipe off 400-600 Points in Few Months
Many Stocks Dangerouly Oversold in Hourly Charts and Ready for Technical Rally

* IFCI !
Bearish double talk formation in daily charts may-Move below 60 may wipe of Rs.8/- in coming days

* RELIANCE PETROLEUM !
Strong support around 105-106-Bearish breakout may target 94-96 in coming weeks

* TATA STEEL !
Technical recovery target of 600+ maintained -Use decline towards 525 for buying with SL

* JP HYDRO !

Medium term charts in favor for rise to 54-55-Decline towards 40 may be used for medium term buying

* SATYAM COMPUTER !
Highly oversold in EST - Ripe for technical recovery to 448 and 460 in coming sessions

* HINDALCO !
Oversold in hourly charts -Technical recovery to 149-150 likely in few Sessions

* INDIA BULLS !
Extreme short term chart in favor of recovery to 490 - Buy gradually on decline with SL

* ONGC CORP !
Oversold in EST charts -Buy gradually on decline for target of 915-920

* TREVINI ENGG .!
Target of 70+ maintained -Use every decline towards 60-61 for buying with SL

* INDIAN HOTELS !
Heading for 130+ in few session-Use decline towards 120 for buying with SL

* UNION BANK !
All indicators i favor of rise to 138-139-Buy and hold with SL of 124

* TCS !
Extreme short term charts in favor of rise to 1098-1100-Buy gradually on declines till 1040 with SL

* IVRCL !
Short term resistance at 339-Bullish crossover with volume to target 355 in couple of Sessions

* PARSVNATH !
Bearish but oversold - Likely to touch 308-310 in coming sessions

* ZEE NEWS !
Strong support around 60 - Bearish breakdown will wipe of Rs.10/- in cooing sessions

* PRAJ INDS !
Heading for 186-187 near term- Use decline to buy with SL of 172

* JP ASSOCIATES !
Extreme short term charts in favor of rise to 810-815-Buy on declines with SL

* OBC !
Heading for 215 in short term -Buy gradually on declines with SL of 190

* SAKTHI SUGAR !
Highly oversold in extreme short term -Ripe for technical recovery to 72-73


Bulls & Bears (Technically Speaking)

Jai Prakash Asociates (Daily)

I F C I (Daily)

Present Status Of The Market And Future Anticipation

Nifty/ Sensex: Anticipated High-Lows for the Week

Nifty: High -4,220 .55 – 4,242 .85: Low   -3,868 .18 – 3,901 .75
Sensex: High - 14,570 .89 – 14,584 .92: Low  - 13,315 .81 – 13,386 .95

PRESENT STATUS OF THE MARKET AND FUTURE ANTICIPATION: In “Second Week of July 2007” we had clearly and specifically emphasized that next “Intermediate Down Wave” would wipe off atleast 12 % from the highest point & we maintained caution to bulls for succeeding 2 weeks specially after Sensex reached our optimistic target of 15,661 .26 which was calculated as per history of ‘Intermediate Up Waves’ within present ‘Major Bull Wave’ which started on 28th April 2003 - following is reproduced in short jist of our weekly writeups since beginning of July 2007 where we started cautioning bulls (it should be noted that on last Friday Sensex has even gone below 2006 closing level of 13,786.91 & we have mentioned in our weekly writeup of 30th July 2007 that if Sensex closes 2007 year below its opening levels of 13,827 .77 then we would change our anticipation of 2008 highs being higher than that of 2007). 

EXCERPTS FROM LAST 7 WEEKS WEEKLY WRITEUPS: Week beginning 2nd July 07 :“ After 3 working days ‘present major wave up’ will equal in duration to ‘last major wave up’ after which we will be looking for additional technical indications of starting of a good ‘intermediate down correction’ ; we anticipate levels of 4,091 .58 – 4,100 .80 & 13,915 .62 – 13, 946 .79 before end Aug 2007 based or prevailing negative divergences in daily & weekly charts.(it is to be noted that in this week anticipated weekly highs were reasonably exceeded and lows were not achieved).

Week beginning 9th July 07: “Continuing the discussion started last week as to when ‘Intermediate Down Correction’ can start & upto where down move will bring indices within present long term uptrend. CLEARLY FORECASTED HERE THAT NEXT INTERMEDIATE DOWN MOVE SHOULD START FROM 15,661 .26 & LIKELY TO CORRECT 12 % FROM THE HIGHEST POINT & NEXT INTERMEDIATE DOWN MOVE SHOULD CORRECT 30 % FROM NEXT HIGH”(it is to be noted that anticipated weekly highs in this week were slightly exceeded while lows were almost touched).

Week beginning 16th July 07: “Support should emerge on minor down correction from where indices should go to 4,619 .15 & 15,661 .26 by the end of First week of Aug 07 where heavy profit booking should emerge” (it is to be noted that anticipated weekly highs were slightly exceeded while lows were almost touched).

Week beginning 23rd July 07 (Turnaround week): “Since indices have achieved our initial anticipated up targets, bulls should play on lower volumes & expect jerky upward movement ; we are anticipating starting of ‘Intermediate Down Trend’ from next week” (it is to be noted that anticipated weekly highs were achieved & slightly exceeded and optimistic lows were perfectly achieved).

Week beginning 30th July 07: “Markets down and on confirmation of ‘Intermediate Sell Mode’

FIRST TARGETS : 4,275 .35 & 14,526 .44

NEXT TARGETS : 4,090 .20 & 13,946 .99

Pessimistic down levels 3,957 .15 – 3,976 .80 & 13,461 .07 – 13,799 .08”. (please note Sensex has entered this range on 17th Aug 07 ; it is to be further noted that anticipated weekly highs & lows both were achieved almost perfectly).

Preceeding week:

“Technical rally possible & after that if Sensex closes the week below 14,850 .27 with black weekly candle then down targets mentioned in last week’s weekly writeup will become valid.” (it is to be noted that anticipated weekly highs & lows both were achieved and exceeded by approx 1 .00 %).

Last week:“Overall it is to be noted that indices have given weekly indications of further bearishness” – final seal of “Intermediate Sell Mode” likely by Tuesday (it is to be noted that anticipated weekly highs & lows both were achieved & lows were exceeded substantially).

Now let us come to present juncture – indices have fully confirmed ‘Intermediate Sell Mode’ in remaining daily charts also (weekly confirmation had already come last week) – now next down targets are 3,800 .57 – 3,863 .98 & 13,106 .60 – 13,221 .77 which should reach latest within next 3 to 4 weeks & if Sensex closes present month below 13,499 .08 then next down targets would become 3,554 .50 – 3,617 .00 & 12,316 .10 – 12,425 .52 ; in the meantime short term rally can take indices to 4,220 .55 – 4,242 .85 & 14,570 .89 – 14,584 .92 on any good local political or international rally news where super heavy profit booking should emerge.

Every story has the other sidehere it is 4,267 .15 – 4,327 .00 & 14,705 .58 – 14,896 .47 which could come only in case of a good compromise between left & right on nuclear treaty – present political dilemma only makes one wonder that after demise of ‘leftist U.S.S.R’ is it ‘Chinese Dragon’ which is having a remote control in our national politics looking at the way headlines have appeared in last week’s daily newpapers of that country. 

TODAY'S TREND: Support on declines for a Technical Rally only.

2) MEDIUM TERM TREND (INTERMEDIATE) :

It has turned Down.

Last week 196 scrips have closed lower as compared to 149 scrips in the preceding week (av. fall per scrip at 5 .02% is also higher than the av. fall per scrip of 3. 28% in the preceding week) & only 32 scrips have closed higher as compared to 78 scrips in the preceding week (but av. rise per scrip at 5 .59 % is  higher than the av. rise per scrip of 3 .26% in the preceding week) out of 250 scrips we follow regularly;

Last week’s A-D data is indicating that although market continues down but this kind of decline ratios with such high % profits to sellers also leads to a good intra week technical rally in majority cases as per history.

3) LONG TERM TREND (MAJOR) :

It continues up

4) REVIEW OF OUR 'ON - LINE RECOMMENDATIONS' OF LAST WEEK:

Last week on the buy side 26 trades were recommended involving positions equivalent to 61 .25 % of the capital (36 .25 % on delivery basis) and profit booking was recommended in 14 trades (which included 2 trades of earlier weeks) involving positions equivalent to 24 .94 % of the capital (14.45 % on delivery basis)

AVE POSITION PER BOOKED DEAL WORKS OUT TO BE = 2.11 % of the capital (our target is 5. 00%).
AVE PROFIT PER BOOKED DEAL WORKS OUT TO BE = 01.78% (our target is 3. 00 %).
BOOKED PROFIT ON THE CAPITAL = 00.53 % (our target is  2. 50%).

FRESH ADVISORY RECOMMENDATIONS
For Extreme Short Term Investors/ Intra-Day Traders
( First Read Disclaimer at www.trade4profit.org)

Note: It is always advisable to use Stop Loss with every Trade. The Stop Loss Level may
vary according to the Time Frame & Profit Margin for which any trade is being initiated.

BUYING

SELLING

Reco.
Date

Scrip

Reco. Type

Buy Around

Target

Reco. Date

Scrip

Reco. Type

Sell Around

Target

20.08.07 Triveni Engg Short Term On Declines+SL 70 & 80 20.08.07 IFCI Short Term If Close<60+SL 52-53
20.08.07 IVRCL Short Term On Declines+SL 355+ 20.08.07 RPL Short Term If Close<105+SL 94-95
20.08.07 J P Hydro Short Term On Declines+SL 54-55 20.08.07 Zee News Short Term If Close<60+SL 51-52
20.08.07 JP Associates Short Term On Declines+SL 810-815          
20.08.07 Indiabulls Short Term On Declines+SL 495+          

The Hypothetical "10 Lac-Portfolio" as on 20.08.2007

FRESH RECOMMENDATIONS
( First Read Disclaimer at www.trade4profit.org)

Important Disclosure - None of the promotoers/ associates/ employees of Trade4Profit OR
Kalpataru Investment Consultants has any position in any of the below advised stocks.

Recommendations for 20.08.2007

Opening Price is considered around close of previous day. Avoid BUYING if Prices open abnormally High and Avoid SELLING if prices open too low.

1). IVRCL (Or Fut) : Buy 1000 Shares (500 at opening + 5x100 at Fall of every Rs2/- ) in ' Investment A/C' . Target 355+ Avg SL Rs10/-.
2). Indiabulls :Buy 1000 Shares (500 at opening + 5x100 at Fall of every Rs2/- ) in ' Investment A/C' . Target 490+ Avg SL Rs10/-.
3).
JP Hydro: Buy 5000 Shares (2500 at opening + 5x500 at Fall of every Rs0.5/- ) in ' Investment A/C' . Target 54+ Avg SL Rs2/-.
4).
IFCI :Sell 3000 Shares (1500 Only if Closes below 60 + 5x300 at Rise of every Rs1/- ) in ' Trading A/C' . Target 52+ Avg SL Rs2/-.

Hypothetical Performance of '10 Lac - Portfolio' in last 330 weeks

Upto Week No.

T.Gain/ Loss in portfolio

Change in the Week(s)

Remarks

0 (09.04.2001)

Nil

Nil

Initial Investment of Rs.10,00,000/- 

50

147.47

147.47%

 

100

184.46

36.99%

 

150

398.21

213.75%

 

200

501.32

103.11%

 

250

667.37

166.05%

 

300

953.87

286.50%

 

330 (19.08.2007)

1148.25

194.38%

 

Hypothetical Performance of '10 Lac - Portfolio' in last 330 weeks

 

 

From: Trade 4Profit [mailto:trade_4profit@yahoo.com]
Sent: 19 August 2007 22:26
To: trade_4profit@yahoo.com
Subject: Weekly Newsletter KTP200807

 

 

__._,_.___
Regards

BigGains !!
Recent Activity
Visit Your Group
SPONSORED LINKS
Yahoo! Finance

It's Now Personal

Guides, news,

advice & more.

Yahoo! Groups

Join a yoga group

and take the stress

out of your life.

Yahoo! Groups

Your one stop

for beauty & fashion

tips and advice.

.

__,_._,___