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Friday, July 09, 2010

**[investwise]** India Real Estate: The REIT Way Forward

 


The abundance of investment vehicles out there creates a challenge for the average investor trying to grasp what they're all about. Stocks are the mainstay of investing, bonds have always been the safe place to park your money, options have increased leverage for speculators, and mutual funds are considered one of the easiest vehicles for investors. One type of investment that doesn't quite fall into these categories and is often overlooked is the real estate investment trust, or REIT.
 
What Is a REIT?

A REIT trust company that accumulates a pool of money, through an initial public offering (IPO), which is then used to buy, develop, manage and sell assets in real estate. The IPO is identical to any other security offering with many of the same rules regarding prospectuses, reporting requirements and regulations; however, instead of purchasing stock in a single company, the owner of one REIT unit is buying a portion of a managed pool of real estate. This pool of real estate then generates income through renting, leasing and selling of property and distributes it directly to the REIT holder on a regular basis.
 
Advantages

When you buy a share of a REIT, you are essentially buying a physical asset with a long expected life span and potential for income through rent and property appreciation. This contrasts with common stocks where investors are buying the right to participate in the profitability of the company through ownership. When purchasing a REIT, one is not only taking a real stake in the ownership of property via increases and decreases in value, but one is also participating in the income generated by the property. This creates a bit of a safety net for investors as they will always have rights to the property underlying the trust while enjoying the benefits of their income.
 
Another advantage that this product provides to the average investor is the ability to invest in real estate without the normally associated large capital and labor requirements.
 
Furthermore, as the funds of this trust are pooled together, a greater amount of diversification is generated as the trust companies are able to buy numerous properties and reduce the negative effects of problems with a single asset. Individual investors trying to mimic a REIT would need to buy and maintain a large number of investment properties, and this generally entails a substantial amount of time and money in an investment that is not easily liquidated.
 
When buying a REIT, the capital investment is limited to the price of the unit, the amount of labor invested is constrained to the amount of research needed to make the right investment, and the shares are liquid on regular stock exchanges.
 
The final, and probably the most important, advantage that REITs provide is their requirement to distribute nearly 90% of their yearly taxable income, created by income producing real estate, to their shareholders. This amount is deductible on a corporate level and generally taxed at the personal level.
 
So, unlike with dividends, there is only one level of taxation for the distributions paid to investors. This high rate of distribution means that the holder of a REIT is greatly participating in the profitability of management and property within the trust, unlike in common stock ownership where the corporation and its board decide whether or not excess cash is distributed to the shareholder.
 
Picking the Right REIT

As with any investment, you should do your homework before deciding upon which REIT to purchase. There are some obvious signs you should look at before making the decision:
 
1. Management

It's always important when buying into a trust or managed pool of assets to understand and know the track record of the managers and their team. Profitability and asset appreciation are closely associated to the manager's ability to pick the right investments and decide upon the best strategies. When choosing what REIT to invest in, make sure you know the management team and their track record. Check to see how they are compensated. If it's based upon performance, chances are that they are looking out for your best interests as well.
 
2. Diversification

REITs are trusts focused upon the ownership of property. As real estate markets fluctuate by location and property type, it's crucial that the REIT you decide to buy is properly diversified. If the REIT is heavily invested in commercial real estate and there is a drop in occupancy rates, then you will experience major problems. Diversification also means the trust has sufficient access to capital to fund future growth initiatives and properly leverage itself for the increased returns.
 
3. Earnings

The final item that you should consider before buying into a specific REIT is its funds from operations and cash available for distribution. These numbers are important as they measure the overall performance of the REIT, which in turn translates to the money being transferred to investors.
 
Be careful that you don't use the regular income numbers generated by the REIT as they will include any property depreciation and thus alter the numbers. These numbers are only useful if you have already looked carefully at the other two signs, since it's possible that the REIT may be experiencing anomalous returns due to real estate market conditions or management's luck in picking investments.
 
Conclusion

With so many different ways to invest your money, it's important that any decision you make is well informed. This applies to stocks, bonds, mutual funds, REITs, or any other investment. Nevertheless, REITs have some interesting features that might make a good fit in your portfolio. Hopefully, this article has given you some insight into this unique type of security and expanded your investment opportunities.
Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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Investor Meet in Chennai on Current Market Scenario July 17th

Hi,

Tamilnadu Investors association is conducting Free Investors Meet on Current Market Scenario on Saturday 17th July at 5.00Pm at S.P Kalyana Mandapam .

Address:
S.P. Kalyana Mandapam (opp too Murugan Temple)
No 68 MTH Road
Ambattur chennai 53

Contact Person:
A.K Narayanan 9840162830   /   044-26581969

Fw: Daring Derivatives: Above 5350 finally

 


Sharekhan Investor's Eye
 
Daring Derivatives
[For July 12, 2010] 
Summary of Contents

DARING DERIVATIVES

Derivatives Summary

  • Nifty (July) future premium has decreased to 1.60 points from 12.60 points and 9.40 lakh shares were added in the open interest.
  • The total open interest in the market was Rs140,571 crore and Rs5,166 crore were added in the open interest.
  • Nifty call option added 10.50 lakh shares in open interest, whereas put option added 23.50 lakh shares in open interest.

Attention:  As per SEBI guidelines, clients who want to transact in the Futures & Options segment are required to submit proof of Financial Details. Kindly contact the nearest Sharekhan branch for more information or check the pop-up banner on our website, www.sharekhan.com.
 
Click here to read report: Daring Derivatives
 

Regards,
The Sharekhan Research Team
myaccount@sharekhan.com

Manage your newsletter subscriptions

 

**[investwise]** China's Ag Bank Raises $ 22 Bn... and fixes it's books

 

Agricultural Bank, the last of China's big state owned banks to go public, is set to raise more than $22 billion from an initial public offering, defying global market weakness to stage the world's largest IPO.
Original forecasts had put potential proceeds from the offering at a whopping $30 billion, much more than what the bank, also known as ABC, will actually take in. But the lender had little choice about the timing. China's banks are now strapped for cash having lent a record 9.6 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in 2009 to support Beijing's stimulus spending.
 
Regulators have ordered them all to shore up their balance sheets.
 
"The IPO's timing was not up to ABC itself. It simply has to get this IPO assignment done to raise funds in the market to fulfill its cash requirements," said Zheng Ning, an analyst at Founder Securities in Beijing.
 
"All the banks are facing a huge gap in cash flow, and the massive demand for capital will definitely weigh on the market in the short term," Zheng said.
 
ABC is selling 25.41 billion shares in Hong Kong and 22.24 billion shares in Shanghai. Based on Tuesday's pricing, the rural lender would raise about $19.23 billion, according to a person familiar with the deal.
The person requested anonymity because details of the IPO were not due to be released until Thursday.
 
If underwriters buy about $2.89 billion more shares to sell to investors in an overallotment, or greenshoe, option, the dual listing could raise $22.12 billion - the most funds ever for an IPO. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China raised $21.9 billion in its October 2006 IPO - the existing record and the only other time a company listing in Shanghai has used a greenshoe option.
 
Investors were apparently unprepared to pay the original higher price suggested for the shares because ABC is viewed as weaker and less profitable than its urban-focused competitors.
 
In Hong Kong, ABC's shares priced at HK$3.20 each (41 cents), the midpoint of the expected range, the person said. In Shanghai, shares are priced at 2.68 yuan (40 cents), the top of the expected range, the person added.
 
Proceeds would total HK$81.31 billion ($10.44 billion) in Hong Kong and 59.58 billion yuan ($8.79 billion) in Shanghai.
 
A dip in the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index to a 15-month low on Monday underscored worries that the offering might overwhelm investor demand. The global IPO market also has suffered this summer, as shares tumbled amid mounting uncertainty over the economic recovery.
 
But shares bounced back Tuesday in Shanghai on bargain hunting - just the kind of buying interest that is helping ABC, says Zheng: "It's precisely a bit easier to sell shares at a lower price."
 
The Shanghai benchmark rose 0.5 percent, or 11.69 points, to 2,421.12 Wednesday on news the social security fund was buying shares. Liquidity pressures also eased as ABC wrapped up its IPO subscriptions.
 
The bank's shares are due to begin trading July 15 in Shanghai and a day later in Hong Kong.
 
The bank won strong backing both from sovereign funds and other institutional investors, especially China's government institutions, and from retail investors who view China - despite its recent market malaise - as the best growth story on offer.
 

Major foreign investors in the Hong Kong offering include some of the territory's biggest tycoons and also Qatar Investment Authority ($2.8 billion), Kuwait Investment Authority ($800 million), Britain's Standard Chartered ( SCBEF.PK - news - people ) Bank ($500 million), Dutch bank Radobank Nederland ($250 million), Australia's Seven Group Holdings Ltd. ($250 million) and Singapore's Temasek Holdings ($200 million).

 

Some 114 Chinese companies raised $20.2 billion in IPOs on 10 exchanges in the first quarter of this year, with most of the funds raised in Shanghai, Shenzhen and on the entrepreneur-oriented ChiNext board.
 
ABC reported assets totaling $8.5 trillion by the end of 2009. As China's main rural lender, even after restructuring it carries the largest nonperforming loan ratio of the big mainland banks, at 2.9 percent - a figure analysts say is understated.
 
The bank's traditional clients are rural companies, not individual farmers, who tend to rely on personal savings, informal lending networks and rural credit cooperatives.
 
But the bank is also emphasizing its ties with dozens of big state-run companies and the growing share of its income from insurance, broking, investment banking and cash management businesses.
 
"Rural markets are low profit compared to the big cities, but if ABC makes better use of its resources to expand in the countryside, it would own its own blue ocean," said Peng Yunliang, an analyst at Shanghai Securities in Shanghai.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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**[investwise]** Singapore Real Estate Booms Reflecting Strength Of The Underlying Economy

 

Singapore real estate prices jumped to a record high in the second quarter as the city-state's economic recovery broadened. Private residential property prices rose 5.2 percent in the April-to-June period to the highest level since the government began the index in 1975, the Urban Redevelopment Authority said Thursday.
 
Prices leapt 5.6 percent in the first quarter and 7.4 percent in the fourth, bouncing back strongly after diving 25 percent in the 12 months to mid-2009.
 
Singapore's low crime rate, good schools and low personal and corporate taxes have helped the island rank near the top of expatriate global quality-of-life surveys and attracted investors to the residential and office property markets. Singapore opened its first two casino-resorts this year, boosting tourist visits.
 
Singapore has sought to slow price gains by implementing a series of measures this year to discourage short-term speculative investment in property.
 
The government earlier this year imposed a 1 percent to 3 percent tax on residential properties sold within one year of purchase and lowered the loan-to-value limit to 80 percent from 90 percent on loans for private housing. Officials have also pledged to release more government land this year for real estate development to help boost housing supply.
Policymakers throughout Asia have grappled with balancing low interest rates to spur economic growth and the danger that cheap credit can fuel asset bubbles.
 
Investor confidence in Singapore has been bolstered by a soaring economy in the first half, led by a surge in manufacturing. Gross domestic product grew a record 15.5 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, and DBS Bank said it expects a 16 percent expansion in the second quarter.
 
DBS raised its 2010 growth forecast Wednesday to 13 percent from 10.3 percent and expects the manufacturing sector to grew 50 percent in the second quarter

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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**[investwise]** Sanofi Aventis Targets A Big Ticket Acquisition

 

Rumors French pharmaceutical giant Sanofi-Aventis SA is chasing a big U.S. acquisition have driven up shares of companies investors think might be a target.

Shares of Allergan Inc. jumped as much as 9 percent, while Genzyme Corp.  and Biogen Idec Inc. both were up at least 5 percent.

 

That's after a report by Bloomberg indicated that Sanofi Chief Executive Chris Viehbacher this week briefed his board at a special meeting, saying that the company is working on a deal for a major acquisition in the U.S.

 

The report says the deal is in the very early stages and does not identify the American company. A Sanofi spokesman in the U.S. says the company does not comment on market rumors.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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**[investwise]** Mckinsey: MNCs move aggressively to capture the 2 Bn strong middle class

 

The rapidly growing ranks of middle-class consumers span a dozen emerging nations, not just the fast-growing BRIC countries,1 and include almost two billion people, spending a total of $6.9 trillion annually. Our research suggests that this figure will rise to $20 trillion during the next decade—about twice the current consumption in the United States.
 
These new spenders offer an opportunity for early winners to gain lasting advantages, just as companies in Europe and the United States did at similar points in their development.
 
In 17 product categories in the United States, for example, we found that the market leader in 1925 remained the number-one or number-two player for the rest of the century. These companies include Kraft Foods (Nabisco), which led in biscuits; Del Monte Foods, in canned fruit; and Wrigley, in chewing gum.
 
Despite having strong global brands, multinational companies face challenging competition in emerging markets, as these economies already boast aggressive local players that have captured a significant portion of spending.
 
Chinese beverage maker Hangzhou Wahaha, for example, has built a $5.2 billion business against global competitors such as Coca-Cola and PepsiCo by targeting rural areas, filling product gaps that meet local needs, keeping costs low, and appealing to patriotism.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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**[investwise]** Oil Reforms: Expensive Short Term, Sensible Long Term

 

Oxford Analytica
India: Why Should State Subsidise Private Transport?
 
The Indian government announced May 25 that it was ceasing to subsidize the price of petrol and was cutting its subsidies on diesel, kerosene and liquid petroleum gas (LPG). It intends to move to a system of full market pricing for diesel over coming months. Kerosene and LPG, which are used as popular cooking and heating oils--the latter especially by the poor--may remain subsidized for the foreseeable future.
 
The decision caused widespread surprise. With headline inflation rates running at more than 10%--and food prices rising by an annual 17%--few expected the government to take steps with further inflationary consequences. The immediate effect of the price hike may add 0.9 percentage points to overall inflation, according to initial estimates.
 
However, the government may have reasoned that the impact would be less noticeable now than at a later date, as international oil prices are relatively low.
 
Pricing Reform

What is less surprising is the government's wish to float petroleum prices at some point. This has been the official policy of successive governments over the past decade, reinforced by no fewer than four commissions of enquiry.
 
The principal mode of the subsidies has been for public-sector oil companies to sell their products at loss-making rates. The government would then compensate through the issue of off-budget oil bonds. Last year, despite the fact that global oil prices fell sharply from their 2008 peak, the so-called under-recoveries of these firms amounted to $18 billion. The policy was thus a heavy burden on both the national exchecker and the state oil firms themselves.
 
Under the new dispensation, under-recoveries should fall dramatically and the government could save as much as $5 billion per year. This will support New Delhi's target of cutting the budget deficit from 6.9% of GDP in fiscal year 2009-2010 (ending March) to 5.5% in 2010-2011 and 4.8% in 2011-2012.
 
Industry Responses

Only five years ago it appeared that private firms would become major players in the petroleum retailing sector. However, as global oil prices soared, the resulting subsidy payments not only exacted a heavy toll on public finances but made private firms unable to compete against their subsidized rivals.
 
In addition, some Indian auto manufacturers have greeted the news positively, believing that the impact on vehicles sales will be short-term and that there will be wider benefits from increased competitiveness of some home-grown brands. For example, the celebrated Tata Nano is one of the most fuel-efficient cars in the world, and several similar vehicles are being developed by rivals.
 
Political Resistance

Support from industry for the new policy is not matched among politicians, leaving uncertainty over the extent to which the plans--notably, those concerning diesel--will be adhered to. In the past governments have often backed down in the face of public protest. Opposition parties are exercised by the impact on living costs; the transport industry is strongly organized and has a history of launching crippling strikes.
 
In this context, it is striking that the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government has got this far. While it contains a core of known economic liberalizers gathered around Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee and Home Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram, it also depends on the support of coalition partners with more obviously populist agendas.
 
The 13 months since the UPA was re-elected has seen friction between them, stalling a number of important bills. These include bills to ease the problem of acquiring land for industrial and infrastructure purposes, to open the education sector to foreign competition, to reform the pensions and insurance sector and to tighten intellectual property rights.
 
Outlook

It may be that a brief window currently exists when Singh and his allies will be able to smuggle through, so to speak, more of their reform agenda before the pressure of seeking electoral popularity closes it again. In India the reform agenda has always proceeded more by stealth than by public acclamation. The time could be ripe, over the next few months, for it to make a significant advance--providing the present protests against rising prices do not prove overwhelming.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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INVESTMENTS IN INDIA
We are low-risk, long-term investors. 

Stocks, mutual funds and the entire investment gamut.  Only financing/investment avenues in India will be discussed. 

For any assistance, questions or improvement ideas, contact investwise-owner@yahoogroups.co.in

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**[investwise]** Dominic Frisby: Weakness In Gold Will Mean An Opportunity In Equities

 


On 21 June gold broke out to new all-time highs above $1,260 an ounce. It pulled back, but then on 28 June it moved briefly above $1,260 again.

Ten days later it was down some $80, flirting with the $1,185 mark.

That's quite a correction and it's concerned a lot of people, so I wanted to address it in today's Money Morning.

Is this anything more than a "healthy pull-back"? Let's have a look...
 
A summer pull-back for gold is normal

The first thing I would say is that it is perfectly normal for gold to pull back in the June-August timeframe. The chart below (courtesy of Dimitri Speck) shows the seasonal tendencies of gold, based on its price action over the last 40 years.

As you can see, in the summer gold tends to languish - at the very least - and, as a consequence, the June-August timeframe is usually one of the best times of year to buy.
 


image

My second observation is that gold's June high above $1,260 was a function of US dollar weakness. Against the euro and the pound, gold made its high on 7 June - exactly according to Speck's seasonal pattern - and then made a lower high on 21 June.

This next chart shows the gold price since the start of 2010, then beneath (in red) gold against the euro, and beneath that (in blue) gold against the pound.
 


image 

Is the case for gold weakening?

As we noted in Money Morning the other day, the European Central Bank has effectively tightened monetary conditions recently, and this has been responsible for some of the euro's strength in recent weeks. Meanwhile the pound, under our new austere government, has been a marvel. This semblance of fiscal sanity returning to both sides of the Channel will have weakened the case for gold.

But therein lies the question. Are we really at the dawn of a new age of austerity? Has Austrian economic thinking replaced the Keynesian addiction to government spending? If we are, and it has, then there is no longer such a compelling case for gold.

At MoneyWeek, we don't make judgements based on party politics. We disliked Gordon Brown because he made bad decisions for the country, not because he was a member of the Labour party.

But I have to say I'm a big fan of the steps this government are taking to cut wasteful spending and improve efficiency. I like the fact that they are attempting to lighten the debt load and set the example of living within your means.

However, one must not get wedded to this new 'austere' moniker. It's early days. There has been no crisis yet. We have to wait and see how they will react when it comes - as sure enough it will. How much mettle will they really have, when push comes to shove?

Meanwhile, we are still in an environment of negative real interest rates. Inflation will come down a little as a result of sterling's recent strength, but annual consumer price index (CPI) inflation is still above 3% and retail price index (RPI) inflation above 5%, while the Bank of England rate is sitting at 0.5%. And neither of those are adequate measures of inflation, as they do not take asset prices into account. As long as savers continue to make a loss, gold should thrive.

In the UK we still have gigantic debts to overcome. We are still overly dependent on the revenue generated by the City, which could quickly diminish in the event of another stock market rout. Our day of reckoning still lies ahead.

But look across the Atlantic and there is no sign of any attempts to get spending in check. In Illinois, for example, which is virtually bankrupt, Fox News reported on Wednesday that "40,000 state workers are to get 14% payraises." This is just one example of many. Money that people don't have is still being recklessly spent. 'Helicopter' Ben Bernanke still believes in his printing press (and Goldman Sachs this week issued a call to him to turn it back on).

Meanwhile, judging by the ever-increasing deficit, Barack Obama seems to think the US can spend its way out of this. The US will have a much greater impact on the gold price than us and, while there is still so much uncertainty and profligacy, gold should be fine.

The gold bull market has further to go

To conclude, I don't think the apparent embrace of 'austerity' is going to stop the gold bull market. The fact is, you seem to get one or two major corrections in gold per year. This has been the norm since the bull market began in 2001. I would argue that now is just another one of many.

In fact, the correction probably has further to go. The signs were there a few weeks back - indeed, I wrote about them here: Three reasons why gold may be due a correction. The new highs in gold were unconfirmed by the gold stocks, by silver and by the other currencies. It's normal for gold to at least drift in the summer.

But if gold were to fall below the magical $1,040 level - the old high and the price at which the Indian government bought last year - and it were to fall on high volume, I would start to think this was something more than a normal pullback.

 
Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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INVESTMENTS IN INDIA
We are low-risk, long-term investors. 

Stocks, mutual funds and the entire investment gamut.  Only financing/investment avenues in India will be discussed. 

For any assistance, questions or improvement ideas, contact investwise-owner@yahoogroups.co.in

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**[investwise]** Wesbury & Stein: The Pouting Pundits Of Pessimism Are Wrong!

 

Want to be invited to A-list parties? Want people to think you are smart? Then don't smile and don't say anything positive--especially about the economy. Pessimism has become so pervasive that people will believe just about anything, as long as it is negative.
 
Over the July 4 weekend, after a jobs report that showed 83,000 new private-sector jobs were created in June, the Drudge Report had not one but two headlines that compared the U.S. economy of 2010 to that of 1932. In other words, the U.S. is back in Depression. This is a complete overreaction and is indicative of the severe case of economic hypochondria that seems to have gripped the nation and the world.
 
One symptom of this disease is that common sense is suspended. The simple explanation is tossed aside and data releases are dredged and sifted to find the most dire possible explanation for any economic information.
 
For example, every 10 years the United States Government conducts a census, and every 10 years the government hires hundreds of thousands of very temporary workers to help in the effort. Some time between April and June total employment goes up and down by an amount that often swamps the underlying trends of employment.
 
In May total payrolls increased 433,000, but then fell by 125,000 in June. So rather than explain this to people, the Pouting Pundits of Pessimism said things like, "All the jobs in May were government jobs." And then last Friday, after the June jobs report, they said, "Jobs fell for the first time in seven months." Both of these reactions were misleading.
 
They could have said, "Once we adjust for the Census, private-sector payrolls increased by 33,000 in May, and then accelerated in June to 83,000." While both months were disappointing when compared with previous recoveries, the data shows six consecutive months of private-sector job creation.
 
Another interpretation that defies common sense involves labor force data. When 805,000 more people said they were looking for a job in April, the pessimists said, "See how many people had been discouraged ... the unemployment rate will never fall as they start looking again." And in June, when the labor force fell by 652,000, they said, "This is the only reason that the unemployment rate fell."
 
This is crazy. It defies common sense. Economic data is volatile, so quarterly data might be better. And in the second quarter the U.S. added 357,000 private-sector jobs--more than 50% greater than the 236,000 added during the first quarter.
 
New orders for durable goods, a leading indicator, are up 10% at an annual rate in the past three months. Excluding transportation, they are up 25%. If we look at just machinery orders, they are up 63% in the past three months and 23% in the past 12 months. This is not a depression.
 
Yes, housing has fallen. But what should we expect after a huge government program to support housing activity ends? Remember Cash for Clunkers? Activity was artificially boosted by the program, then it fell, then it recovered as the normal forces of economic activity kicked in again.
 
The same thing will happen with housing in the months ahead. So could we be repeating 1932? We suppose anything is possible, but these fears are based on a faulty comparison with history. In 1932 the M2 measure of the money supply fell by 16.5%--the third of four consecutive yearly declines between 1929 and 1933.
 
Meanwhile Herbert Hoover pushed through the largest tax hike in American history. The lowest tax rate rose from 1.5% to 4% (at $1 dollar of taxable income), the 6% rate (which kicked in at $10,000) rose to 10%, and the top rate more than doubled from 25% to 63%.
 
Today the M2 measure of money is growing, and tax rates, while scheduled to go higher in 2011, are nowhere near the levels of the 1930s. And there is no Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.
None of this is to say that the government is not making it more difficult for business. Clearly the uncertainty of new laws, spending, taxes and regulations is throwing a wet blanket over the entrepreneurial side of the American economy.
 
But two things are true. First, productivity is so strong that the economy is growing despite massive increases in the size of government. The U.S. is creating jobs, even if the rate of growth is less than previous recoveries. Profits are still rising. In fact, analysts are still raising earnings estimates.
 
Second, the market has so much negativity priced in that it is cheap on just about any basis. Based on forward earnings, the PE ratio for the S&P 500 is under 12. And our capitalized profits model shows that stocks are severely undervalued. Based on very conservative inputs, we continue to believe the fair value for the Dow Jones industrial average is 14,500.
 
Pessimism creates value. Optimism has traditionally been rewarded. We remain optimistic.
 
Brian S. Wesbury is chief economist and Robert Stein senior economist at First Trust Advisors in Wheaton, Ill.


 
Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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