Sensex

Sunday, July 29, 2007

$$ DreamGains !! $$ Sachin Chavan Total Newsletter - 30th Jul 2007

Sachin Chavan Daily Total Newsletter - Jul 30, 2007

 Tel: 022 - 25308355                           Email: mail@sachinchavan.com                     Mobile: 098203-16390
Website: www.sachinchavan.com
Please read the disclaimer at the end of this page. Read this newsletter only if you agree with it.

Learning 
Center:

  "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage" - Anais Nin

 

Part I: Market Overview & Nifty

Overview

The consistent advice given here for the last 3 trading sessions was for the traders to remain thin in a vulnerable overbought market. Those who heeded would have benefitted as market plunged into correction with a 4% fall on Friday.

Deat-cat bounce off steep fall is not uncommon, but usually acts as a bull-trap. Its better to wait for the corrective forces to play themselves out completely before attempting bottom-fishing.

With all our positions booked by 25th July, clients did not lose a single Rupee in Friday's fall. This is an important part traders forget - when to remain in cash!

Nifty

 

Current Spot Rate

Supports

Resistances

Trend

 

S2

S1

R1

R2

MT

ST

4445

4310

4380

4650

4770

Bullish

Corr Dn

 

 

MT = Medium Term (3-12 weeks forecast); ST = Short Term (1-14 days forecast)

 

Out-performers (for upto next 3 months)

Under-Performers (for upto next 3 months)

Media, Cap Goods, Banks, Power

Tech Majors, Refining majors, Sugar

Out-performer' dooes not necessarily mean bullish, but that it can perform better than the overall market. 'Similarly, 'Under-performer' does not necessarily mean bearish, but that it can perform worse than the overall market.

Market Barometer (for short term only)

Based on the prevailing market trend, this section mentions to what extent it is preferable to hold long positions, short positions or remain univested for a short-term trader at this time.

  Short term position: 

Long (plus)

 

Short (minus)

 

Uninvested

 

Break-up:

Low

None

High

Media Schedule:

Wed, Jul 18   11:00am-12:00pm:  'Sauda Apka', CNBC Awaaz

Wed, Jul 18   09:40am-10:30am:  Zee Business

Wed, Jul 18   03:00pm-03:40pm:  '2.30 Factor', NDTV Profit

 

 

 

Click here for Details and Registration for Paid Daily Newsletter

 

Salient News (from public domain)

p

Ranbaxy, GSK settle Valtrex US patent case.

p

Govt speeds up the process of certification of foreign cement manufacturers.

p

IVR Prime IPO subscribed over two times.

p

Elder Pharmaceuticals acquires 20% stake in Neutra Health in UK.

p

Tata Indicom slashes ISD rates to Rs 1.99/min.

p

NIIT to train IT manpower in Malaysia.

p

Reliance plans $2.5 b investment in fertilizer plant.

p

Pidilite acquires Nebula Trading in UAE.

 

Part II: Equity and Derivative Break-outs (for 1-4 weeks)

 

c  Patel Engg completed target (483) amounting to 6.9% profit in 13 days. c.

c  Blue Star Inds completed target (264) amounting to 6.5% profit in 16 days. c.

c  Pantaloon derivative yielded 23% return on margin capital in 1 day. Equivalent profit per lot = Rs 12000. c.

c  BRFL stopped at 218, equivalent to loss of 12% c.

 

The following scrips have provided short-term breakouts at the points mentioned. Likely target/s and stoplosses commensurate with the breakout are also given below.  These are based only on technical analysis and are for informational purpose alone.

 

 

A breakout can be either bullish or bearish. Bullish breakouts would have targets above and stoplosses below and vice-versa for bearish breakouts. The mode tells whether the breakout is more suitable for equity (delivery-based) or derivatives trading.

 

 

Scrip

Break-out Point

Likely Targets

Stop
loss

Current Price

Targets Completed

Mode

Type

Date

Price

T1

T2

None

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Updated levels are highlighted in yellow. All prices mentioned are NSE equity prices (even for derivative breakouts)

 

 

Part III: ASI Analysis of Major 50 Scrips

 

Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Table

 

Absolute Strength Index (ASI) is a technical indicator created by the analyst to indicate the bullishness/flatness/bearishness of any scrip. ASI values for 50 major scrips are updated in the table everyday.

Read below to understand ASI and what purpose it serves.

Description of ASI
ASI, the forward looking proprietary indicator, represents absolute
strength of a scrip. There are two ASI's:

Indicative Key to Use
ASI = 70-100 ->  Bullish
ASI = 60-70   ->  Mildly Bullish

- Medium term (3-12 weeks forecast) and
- Short term (1-14 days forecast),  plotted in the grid above

ASI = 40-60   ->  Flat
ASI = 30-40   ->  Mildly Bearish
ASI = 0-30     ->  Bearish

Note1: ASI < 30% does not mean 'oversold' but indicates weakness (fall expected ), and ASI > 70 does not mean 'overbought' but indicates strength (rise expected)

How to Use

The probability of success of a new Long (plus) position is better if MT trend is Bullish AND ST trend has just turned Bullish (underlined as Bullish). New long positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is overbought/ correcting down/bearish.

The probability of success of a new Short (minus) position is better if  MT trend is Bearish AND ST trend has just turned Bearish (underlined as Bearish ). New short positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is oversold/correcting up/bullish.

The rates mentioned below are 'equity' rates and not 'futures' rates.

 

Scrip

CMP

Medium Term (MT)

Short Term (ST)

 

 

ASI

Trend

Target

ASI

Trend

Target

 

 

Nifty

4445

98

Bullish

4900

39

Corr Dn

-

 

 

ACC

1000

64

Bullish

1180

34

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Bajaj Auto

2315

31

Flat

2100-2675

49

Flat

2200-2440

 

 

BPCL

311

21

Bearish

280

19

Bearish

295

 

 

Bharti Airtel

893

95

Bullish

960

34

Corr Dn

-

 

 

BHEL

1661

88

Bullish

1950

41

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Century Text

666

81

Bullish

825

24

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Cipla

188

26

Bearish

175

11

Ovrsold

-

 

 

Dabur

101

64

Bullish

115

31

Flat

100-106

 

 

Dr Reddy's

640

45

Flat

550-810

7

Bearish

625

 

 

GAIL

326

90

Bullish

360

44

Flat

310-340

 

 

Grasim

2862

71

Bullish

3220

44

Flat

2800-3070

 

 

Guj Ambuja

125

67

Bullish

148

31

Corr Dn

-

 

 

HCL Tech

311

57

Flat

285-360

10

Bearish

305

 

 

HDFC Bank

1169

83

Bullish

1280

36

Corr Dn

-

 

 

HDFC

1908

83

Bullish

2250

36

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Hero Honda

684

33

Bearish

615

49

Flat

660-720

 

 

Hind Lever

196

33

Flat

175-240

44

Flat

190-210

 

 

Hind Petro

257

21

Bearish

235

36

Flat

250-275

 

 

Hindalco

173

64

Bullish

210

57

Flat

160-190

 

 

I - Flex

2228

67

Flat

1925-2525

17

Ovrsold

-

 

 

ICICI Bank

914

76

Bullish

1015

13

Corr Dn

-

 

 

IDBI

109

81

Bullish

130

40

Flat

105-122

 

 

Indian Hotels

138

57

Flat

130-160

10

Bearish

130

 

 

IPCL

369

95

Bullish

420

57

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Infosys

2008

60

Flat

1820-2280

64

Bullish

2100

 

 

ITC

172

50

Flat

145-195

89

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Jet Airways

719

37

Flat

700-950

14

Bearish

700

 

 

L&T

2420

88

Bullish

2800

39

Ovrbot

-

 

 

M&M

780

50

Flat

590-860

41

Flat

735-840

 

 

Maruti

830

48

Flat

720-860

53

Flat

810-855

 

 

Nalco

284

86

Bullish

330

39

Flat

280-300

 

 

ONGC

904

67

Bullish

1040

30

Corr Dn

-

 

 

PNB

500

55

Flat

440-570

13

Ovrsold

-

 

 

Ranbaxy

375

33

Bearish

330

74

Corr Up

-

 

 

Rel. Capital

1194

98

Bullish

1340

43

Flat

1130-1275

 

 

Rel. Energy

763

81

Bullish

860

64

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Reliance Ind

1868

98

Bullish

1980

63

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Satyam

473

81

Bullish

530

20

Corr Dn

-

 

 

SCI

209

95

Bullish

230

33

Corr Dn

-

 

 

SBI

1499

88

Bullish

1650

31

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Steel Authority

148

95

Bullish

170

30

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Tata Chem

250

79

Bullish

280

36

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Tata Steel

652

86

Bullish

740

30

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Tata Motors

699

31

Flat

660-920

27

Bearish

670

 

 

Tata Power

702

93

Bullish

840

73

Bullish

745

 

 

TCS

1153

50

Flat

1050-1250

24

Flat

1120-1200

 

 

VSNL

455

76

Bullish

525

19

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Wipro

493

40

Flat

435-630

7

Bearish

480

 

 

Zee Telefilms

331

100

Bullish

410

40

Flat

305-350

 

\

 Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Plot

Click here to learn the stock codes used in the plot below.

Note: Scrip name in Red Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has reduced substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Green Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has increased substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Black Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has remained same

 

Disclosure:

The analyst holds long term investments in various Reliance group companies (including Reliance Industries, Reliance Capital, Reliance Energy, Reliance Natural Resources and Reliance Communications).

The analyst has business relations with Reliance Money, a Reliance Capital company. The analyst and his dependents have no positions in other stocks/futures.

Disclaimer:

This newsletter and the opinions/break-outs mentioned therein are for informational purpose only and not a recommendation or an offer or solicitation of an offer to any person with respect to the purchase or sale of the stocks/futures discussed in this report.

I, Sachin Chavan (author), do not accept any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipient &  reader of this material should rely on their own investigations and take professional advice. Subscribers, recipients and readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their actions and shall not hold the Author liable for any investment decisions/ actions or any other action (including abstaining from action) based on the Content provided. Information is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The information provided is based on the theory of Technical Analysis. All levels mentioned, including break-out, target, stoploss are only informative. Trading and investment in stock market is risky and volatile.

This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior
permission from the author.
 - Sachin Chavan

 

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