Sensex

Thursday, February 04, 2010

Re: [sharetrading] Intra

 

Abe sir,
    if you don't mind plz tell me which company 's software is suitable and which one you are using.
thanks in anticipation
regards
ss dhiman


From: A P Abraham <abrahamap@airtelmail.in>
To: sharetrading@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Fri, 5 February, 2010 1:22:43 PM
Subject: [sharetrading] Intra

 

Presently only hit and runs are available in LONG direction and it has been so since 19th Jan. Markets are far below any signaling point. It would be sheer luck if one can pick off a bottom. Rather wait for the bounce and participation for a Long pick. As of now – no carry over below 4871. All positions to be closed intraday except those of SHORT which are carried forward. In remaining 2 hours I do not see any chance for LONG…. Except penny picks………

Abv 4712 FUT some quickies might be present, but is fraught with danger…….. Ur choice……..

 

Abe



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Re: [Technical-Investor] OT: Survey on Live Charts in Broking Houses

 

Hi Prashanth,
 
It's VERY GOOD for guys like us who rely on charts. The fewer people who know whats actually going on the better it is for guys like us.
 
BTW I don't think L&T will majorly go below its' recent lows. The stock has been accumulated by smart fish.
 
Your opinion would be welcome.
 
Cheers.

--- On Thu, 2/4/10, Prashanth K <prash454.ta@gmail.com> wrote:

From: Prashanth K <prash454.ta@gmail.com>
Subject: [Technical-Investor] OT: Survey on Live Charts in Broking Houses
To: Technical-Investor@yahoogroups.com
Date: Thursday, February 4, 2010, 11:01 PM

 
Hello,

For last couple of days I have been wondering about this question. Question is, how many Broking houses have Live Charting Software for use by Dealers / Clients?

I have visited various broking offices and am yet to find one with Live Charts. Many do not even have even Offline Charting. Among the only brokers I know who have Live Charting software in their offices are those of Sainik, Sriram and myself other than a couple of guys whose offices I haven't visited but know for a fact that they have MetaStock. In fact at BgSE where I sit, I am the only one with a Charting Software and a dedicated system for the same among as many as 100+ terminals.

This amazes me since you ask any Dealer or Broker and he will always give you some or the other levels. But ask about charts and the best thing some do is guide you to Internet and Yahoo Free Charts. Many lack even that option.

So, this brings me to the question, Is the Investor / Trading / Broking community not much interested in Technical Analysis? 

What has been your experience. If you trade through a broker and he does not have a charting software, what his excuse?

As I mentioned the other day and Sriram confirmed it with a live example he had, are most traders / investors more interested in handouts rather than knowledge? Are most brokers really trying to fool the Investor and hence spreading a bad name not only for the Broker community but also methods such as TA.

Cheers

Prashanth



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[sharetrading] Intra

 

Presently only hit and runs are available in LONG direction and it has been so since 19th Jan. Markets are far below any signaling point. It would be sheer luck if one can pick off a bottom. Rather wait for the bounce and participation for a Long pick. As of now – no carry over below 4871. All positions to be closed intraday except those of SHORT which are carried forward. In remaining 2 hours I do not see any chance for LONG…. Except penny picks………

Abv 4712 FUT some quickies might be present, but is fraught with danger…….. Ur choice……..

 

Abe

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[Technical-Investor] dow

 

dow has support at around 9900 and not to forget 10k will be given easily. so there would be lot of volatility.
dow in positioning itself is going to give up another 1000 points  from here.

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[Ways-2gain] reports [3 Attachments]

 
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[sharetrading] Investors Eye [1 Attachment]

 
[Attachment(s) from ekam ber included below]

 
Investor's Eye: Update - ISMT (Higher power cost impacts Q3 results); Network 18 (Price target revised to Rs126); Oil & gas (Kirit Parikh Committee recommends freeing of fuel prices)

 
Investor's Eye
[February 04, 2010]
Summary of Contents

STOCK UPDATE

ISMT 
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Recommendation: Buy 
Price target: Rs62
Current market price: Rs54

Higher power cost impacts Q3 results

Result highlights

  • ISMT?s Q3FY2010 results were below our expectation on account of a lower than expected operating profit margin (OPM). The Q3 OPM was below our expectation due to higher than expected energy expenses.
  • The total income from operations declined marginally by 1.1% year on year (yoy) to Rs304.2 crore?in line with our estimate of Rs303.7 crore. The net sales of the tubes segment was down by 23.3% yoy to Rs196.3 crore while sales of the steel segment grew by 112.8% yoy to Rs110 crore. 
  • In the tubes segment, the sales volume grew by 5.2% yoy (and 10.9% quarter on quarter [qoq]) to 30,500 tonne on the back of a 50% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in the domestic volumes though exports declined by 50% yoy. The strong domestic sales in the quarter were led by robust demand from the power and bearing sectors. The net realisation went down by 26.1% yoy (and 4.4% qoq) to Rs65,000 per tonne. 
  • The OPM shrank by a sharp 719 basis points yoy to 14.7% (versus our expectation of 17.3%) due to a 60.5% y-o-y increase in the energy expenses (the power cost per unit increased to Rs5.7 per kwh in the quarter from Rs4.8 per kwh in the same quarter of the last year) and a higher proportion of steel sales in the total sales (36% in the quarter versus just 17% in the corresponding quarter of the last year). Consequently, the operating profit dipped by 33.5% yoy to Rs44.8 crore.
  • The profit after tax (PAT) declined by 23.7% yoy to Rs14.9 crore mainly due to lower operating profit. The decline in the net income was limited due to foreign exchange (forex) gain of Rs2.5 crore in the quarter as against a forex loss of Rs14.9 crore in the same quarter of the last year and a 4.5% y-o-y decline in interest expenses. 
  • The management has indicated the completion of 317,000 tonne per annum (TPA) capacity expansion of the tubes segment. However, the commercial production will get delayed to Q1FY2011, as the company has still to fix the additional equipment required to manufacture the products according to customer?s needs. The operation at Baramati facility was also impacted due to opeartionalisation of higher capacity furnace in the quarter.
  • We have revised our earnings estimates for FY2010 and FY2011 to factor in: 1) The lowered production as the new Baramati facility will come into commercial operation from Q1FY2011; 2) The higher power cost; and 3) We are now not considering depreciation and interest expenses for the new Baramati plant in FY2010, as the plant will come into operation only from Q1FY2011 and hence the capitalisation of assets will also take place in FY2011. Consequently, our revised earnings per share (EPS) estimate now stands at Rs5.1 and Rs8.9 for FY2010 and FY2011 respectively. We are also introducing our FY2012 earnings estimate and expect an EPS of Rs11.5 for the fiscal. 
  • We expect the company?s profit to post a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50% over FY2010E-FY2012E on the back of strong domestic demand and expected decline in the power cost with the start of its new power plant. At the current market price, the stock is trading at attractive valuation of 6.2x its FY2011 earnings estimate and 4.8x its FY2012 earnings estimate. We maintain our Buy recommendation and price target of Rs62 (we have rolled over our target multiple to the average of FY2011 and FY2012 expected earnings estimates).

 

Network 18 Media & Investments 
Cluster: Emerging Star
Recommendation: Buy 
Price target: Rs126
Current market price: Rs102

Price target revised to Rs126 

Result highlights

  • Network18 Media & Investments (Network18)?s Q3FY2010 numbers are not comparable to the year-ago quarter (Q3FY2009) due to the inclusion of Viacom18?s financials from Q1FY2010. The key highlight for quarter was the profit of the group as a whole and the profit of majority of its businesses turning earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA) positive. 
  • The two important highlights of the quarter has been adherence to the stringent cost controls and cost reduction measures across businesses, and good overall revenue growth on the back of impressive viewership gains especially in Viacom 18. 
  • For the quarter, the group?s revenues grew by a strong 66% year on year (yoy) to Rs370.1 crore. On a good revenue growth and stringent cost controls, the group achieved breakeven at EBIDTA levels posting a small operating profit of Rs2.3 crore in the quarter against a loss of Rs45.2 crore and Rs46.8 crore in Q3FY2009 and Q2FY2010 respectively. However, it should be remembered that Q3 (October-December) is one of the best quarter for media companies (especially the entertainment business) due to festive season and the revenue traction in the quarter was partially aided by the same. The lower other income on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis restricted the reduction in the net loss to Rs20.8 crore from a loss of Rs42.6 crore and Rs63.7 crore in Q3FY2009 and Q2FY2010 respectively.
  • We believe, the overall performance of the group is likely to improve significantly due to pick-up in advertising market that would help the group?s businesses across the board to rake in higher advertising revenues. Further, the strong leadership in the Hindi general entertainment space (GEC) space established by Colors and good viewership standings of other Viacom 18 channels are likely to bring in strong revenue growth for Network18 group as a whole. TV18 could see revenues improving on the back of the pick-up in corporate (clients) earnings together with a much-improved capital market. With learning from a tough FY2009, the costs in TV18 and news businesses in IBN18 are likely to be kept tight. 
  • The balance sheet de-leveraging initiatives taken by the group primarily through equity issuances though will lead to significant reduction in debt across businesses has led to substantial dilution in equity over the past year. Thus, the interest cost is likely to decline significantly in the coming quarters and would further reduce the overall losses. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) price target of Rs126. 

SECTOR UPDATE

Oil & gas

Kirit Parikh Committee recommends freeing of fuel prices
Kirit Parikh Committee appointed by the government on the pricing of petroleum products has presented its recommendations. And the petroleum ministry has said that the recommendations would be processed expeditiously. We highlight here that the issues of under-recoveries and aligning the prices of petroleum products to international prices are not new and the government?s action on this front has not been encouraging over previous such reports in the past few years.


Regards,
The Sharekhan Research Team
 

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Attachment(s) from ekam ber

1 of 1 File(s)

Please use your discretion before acting on the ideas expressed in the group.
Happy Trading,
United we grow!!!
.

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[www.wavetimes.com - Elliot Wave tips] Free

 



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http://www.sathyamurthy.com/finance
http://www.sathyamurthy.com/auto

Excellent Elliot wave analysis for FREE from experienced NRI multinational banker based outside of India - http://www.wavetimes.com (A MUST VISIT)
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Re: SPAM-LOW: Re: [Technical-Investor] Re:Re: NIFTY and other Stock : 4th FEB. : RESON for BULLISH

 

Hi Sneha,
 
1)I respect Your demand----
and please stop using word "urf" i hate this call me by one name------- I took care of that but was not sure which one I should use Vikas or Sneha, to show respect I adressed You as Sneha.
 
2) In Your Para
----- There is no fix rule to use any indicator, that is my experiance. I was taught something my advanceget online trainer, i tweaked it to suit my market and what works for me I use I never go blindly by any suggestion. --------
Please remember, it is not indicator we are discussing, it is one of the Four Advance Get Systems that You reffered to in Your email. Let us stay on topic.  Very Basic requirements of Systems are sticking to its Rules. If You change the rules, any rule, it is not the same System any more. Moreover, if You override the Output of a System, even if You did not change the Rules, that overriding itself makes it a new system.
 
3) in Your Para
-------- I am not aggressive but you are trying to fix a rule and trying to post on everyone on this group if there was any fix rule which was always right then the person who made him must be Warren buffet or may be better than him.------------
Sneha, I am not trying to fix a rule and trying to post on everyone on this group, not at all. Over 5000 members reading Your emails, especially after learning that You teach Tech Analysis, can be mislead to ruins, if we do not stop misquoting the Rules of  reffered to Commercially developed System that comes with certain Set of Rules. I am not trying to fix rules on You or the Group, I am trying to point out that Each System, especially if You are reffering to a Third Party Commercial System, comes with its own uniqe set of Rules and if You tinker with or misreprent its rules, it should not be reffered to as the same old sytem. So, again do not misrepresent that I am trying to fix rules on  everyone in the group. 
 
Suneel Sharma


From: Sneha R <snehatilwani@yahoo.com>
To: Technical-Investor@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Thu, February 4, 2010 12:27:16 AM
Subject: Re: SPAM-LOW: Re: [Technical-Investor] Re:Re: NIFTY and other Stock : 4th FEB. : RESON for BULLISH

 



Dear Sunil,
 
There is no fix rule to use any indicator, that is my experiance. I was taught something my advanceget online trainer, i tweaked it to suit my market and what works for me I use I never go blindly by any suggestion.
 
what ever I am saying has worked for me and I use this way.
 
and please stop using word "urf" i hate this call me by one name.
 
I am not aggressive but you are trying to fix a rule and trying to post on everyone on this group if there was any fix rule which was always right then the person who made him must be Warren buffet or may be better than him.
 
What works for me I share, what works for you, you can share so that others can learn.
 
 but do not point any one.
 
Regards
 
 
 
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, February 04, 2010 1:49 PM
Subject: Re: SPAM-LOW: Re: [Technical-Investor ] Re:Re: NIFTY and other Stock : 4th FEB. : RESON for BULLISH

 

Hello Sneha urf Vikas,
 
It is not question of different interpretation of Yours vs mine, it is about misquoting a Third Party System and its set rules, because it will be a dis-service to group. Do You know, if You change any rule of the system, it is not the same system anymore? Remember, it is Third Party System, named Advanced Get, You should not misquote its rules, Period.
 
To respond to Your line, -------- And second thing if you are trying to take my interview then i am not interested in such emails but if its discussion then its most welcome. ............ .
 
 Why are You so aggressive if I brought out Your mistakes or misrepresentations within Your emails? All You have to do is stop it.
 
Suneel Sharma
 

 


From: Sneha R <snehatilwani@ yahoo.com>
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Wed, February 3, 2010 11:39:41 PM
Subject: Re: SPAM-LOW: Re: [Technical-Investor ] Re:Re: NIFTY and other Stock : 4th FEB. : RESON for BULLISH

 



Dear Mr. Sunil Sharma.
 
Everyone interpertation may be differnt, let me tell you what I check in stochastics. I trade this way may be you trade differently or interpreted differntly.
 
Buy  setup:
 
1. If it is below 25 and there is no false bar and if signal line crossed upside, its a buy singal
2. If there is a false bar below buy signal, do not buy rather if other indicators confirm sell then take a sell position, becasue the false bar is a week signal and indicates false buy signal.
3. If there is a false bar on stochastics in sell zone that is a false sell and actually that is bullish, so after that if stochastics decline and goes to oversold zone and turns up and there then that is strong buy.
 
And its reverse holds good for sell.
 
And second thing if you are trying to take my interview then i am not interested in such emails but if its discussion then its most welcome.
 
Any rule is good which gives you money.

Regards.
 
Sneha
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, February 04, 2010 12:32 PM
Subject: SPAM-LOW: Re: [Technical-Investor ] Re:Re: NIFTY and other Stock : 4th FEB. : RESON for BULLISH

 

Hello Sneha urf Vikash,
 
In Your email, I want You to please focus on the following para-
 
--------Also, in Advaced get you have something known as Nifty Falls buy/sell for Stochastics, which means if Stochastic is giving Falls buy/sell (which happens very often) can be caught on the charts, and if there is no false Black bar on top/bottom of indicator, that means its correct buy, which in case of the Nifty, chart attached.--- --------

 

I am very familiar with Advanced Get, and do not know where Advanced Get Refers to " Nifty Falls buy/sell" . Can You guide me or point to the source?

 

or You could be referring to " False Bar Stochastic Buy/Sell System"??

 

Even If You are, You still got it wrong, when You say " and if there is no false Black bar on top/bottom of indicator, that means its correct buy,"....... . No, actually Rule of System is, if there is False Black Bar on top, and Stochastic drops into oversold zone, it can then give Correct Buy, it is part of rules of the System, at least the way I understand it, Please, guide if otherwise.

 

Suneel Sharma



From: Sneha R <snehatilwani@ yahoo.com>
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Wed, February 3, 2010 7:43:19 PM
Subject: [Technical-Investor ] Re:Re: NIFTY and other Stock : 4th FEB. : RESON for BULLISH

 



Hi Sriram,
 
I appriciate your analysis, there is always two people in market one buyer and seller otherwise market will not exists, and may be I am a buyer due to my reason and you are seller due to your reasons :). No offences.
 
I am seeing long term trend up as per my elliot wave counts, I use normally Advanced get for the same. I have attached the Chart for the same. Normally as per my experiance the last count done by Advance get keep changing and the only way to get rid of it is you need to know your own count. So I always validate that with my own count. The beauty of advance get is previous counts (except the current wave) remains same so you need not count all the waves from begining but only validate the current wave.
 
As per advance get also the current trend is down, but same time if you see 3rd Wave is much smaller than 5th Wave which is wrong. So according to me the wave which is labled as 5th will be re-labled to Wave 3 and current wave will be Wave 4, and after wave 4 you can expect a big move, which should be higher than Wave 3 (if Wave 5 is not higher then you can expect a big fall). The target for Wave 4 will be 80% time 23% of Wave 3 which is around 4550, which it has alreeady tested.
 
Traditional analysis keeps changing from bull to bear and bear to bull very oftern, but if your wave counts are correct then it can hardly change (i.e. also when you are in extension of wave).
 
Also, in Advaced get you have something known as Nifty Falls buy/sell for Stochastics, which means if Stochastic is giving Falls buy/sell (which happens very often) can be caught on the charts, and if there is no false Black bar on top/bottom of indicator, that means its correct buy, which in case of the Nifty, chart attached.
 
Actully I am very busy so does not so much time to give all the reasons for my buy/sell recomendations, when I get time i will create a blog as recomended by KK and then may be you will believe me :)
 
Hope this helps a bit.
 
 
Regards,
Sneha 
 
----- Original Message -----
From: B SRIRAM
Sent: Thursday, February 04, 2010 8:38 AM
Subject: SPAM-LOW: Re: [Technical-Investor ] NIFTY and other Stock : 4th FEB.

 

Sneha,

I will just pick this one please. In what time frame do you say the trend is UP? In 15 minutes to hourly it may be up trending. But in daily to weekly this may not be the case. On low volumes it is justcorrecting the fall and the broader trend remains down. The scrip just closed above 10-20 DEMAs but still is below its 50 DEMA. I am just attaching the chart for all people to see and appreciate my point.The best bullish proposal in this share for me is to keep out and short again as it moves below 10 DEMA which stands today at 2440. Take care

Sriram

B.Sriram
4B, Skylark Apts,
6,Rutlandgate Fifth St.,
Chennai-600006
Ph:+91 44 28334849(Dir) /28332373( Board)
Mobile:+91 98400 63145
Email:bhsppt@gmail. com

--- On Thu, 4/2/10, Sneha <snehatilwani@ yahoo.com> wrote:

From: Sneha <snehatilwani@ yahoo.com>
Subject: [Technical-Investor ] NIFTY and other Stock : 4th FEB.
To: technical-investor@ yahoogroups. com
Date: Thursday, 4 February, 2010, 2:39 AM

 

Dear friends,

Please find analyis of few securities which was requested by few frieds.

Nifty - it is buy mode, the level of 5978 is level to watch, if it breaks then 4992/5113 is not rulled out. Support exists at 4908/4849.

Every dip should be opertunity to buy only.


Rule 1 : Always trade with Trend, in every market few stocks will go up and few down, but its better to trade with the market and with the market as well as stock trend.

Rule 2. Never trade without stoploss.

 

HDFC - Trend is up i.e. buy : Support 2429/2510, resistance 2583/2655

IDFC : Sidewise, better to stay out.

IDBI : Weekly downwards, daily upwards, support at 118 and 107, resistance at 122/129/139, be causious while you trade this stock.

EDUCOMP : short term (1-3 days upward) but weekly trend is down, if it closes above its 726 then trend might change, l

Levels are : Support 670/614, Resistance are at 778, 824 and 870.

Recomendation, if it crossed 726 with good  volume buy it with stoploss of 713. Otherwise do not trade for 1-3 days.

STERLITE : Contrary trends, confusing, it may go up in short term (1-3 days) but better to stay out.

Jindal Steel and Power : Support 988/929 Resistance 1066/1100/ 1206.

Recomendation, strong buy. fall on declines (if it declines :)

LIC Housing : looks like downtrend is getting over and a uptrend is likely but better to stay away if get caught then we need to pay heavy price.

HDFC Bank : downtrend , Support 1552, 1661, if you see this in -ve then may be you can go short, the downside target is 1463.

Recomendation : be causious if you go short as overall market looks good.

SBIN : Again anohter bank stock does not look very attractive, major support at 1963, resistance is at 2153/2208. Trend is down

Recomendation : Stay out.

Reliance : Looks bad, better be out.

Essar Oil : Short term trend (1-3) days is up, support at 122/131/139, resistance is 147/158/174

JP Associate : support 130/122, resistance 144/149, if  crosses 149 with volume the trend might change upwards, otherwise weekly trend is down, whereas daily pullback is possible.


Sessa Goa : Support 361/335, resistance 375, 399 and 439. Trend is up.

Recomendation : Buy with tight stoploss, this might give very good return.

Note : This is just my analysis, please trade with your experiance and your risk.

Regards,
Sneha.

 

----- Original Message -----
From: Sneha
To:
Sent: Wednesday, February 03, 2010 9:39 PM
Subject: All recomendations near target.


 

Dear Friends.

Please check the email below, I had given these recomendations on Jan 31, Guess where are we today ? If you do not believe please check your emails or Archives of group, I am saying this because lots of people have critisized me and asked all shorts of nonsense questions which I do not even like to post in the forum.

Nifty  : The weekly stoploss is 4789 for a target of 4965/5030/5094  - Today's High 4949 Close 4931

Buy only if stays above 4893.

Other stocks which looks bullish for Monday are :


1. HDIL  - Target 349 stoploss 315 - Today's High 343/45 Close 341

2. JSWSTEEL - Target 1065/1099 Stoploss 920, buy only above 993 - Today's High 1061 Close 1055.80

3. HDFC (Ready to explode) - immdiate Target 2493 but new highs are not rulled out in coming weeks -  Today's High 2526 Close 2521

4. Tata steel - Target 601, stoploss 551 -  -  Today's High 603.80 Close 600.30


I am bit busy from tomorrow and may not be online and send recomendations, So please excuse me, I will try to send atleast one recomendation but can not gaurantee, Friends please do not dis-appoint i will not go anywhere but will be back on 15th Feb.

Regards,


----- Original Message -----
From: Sneha R
Sent: Sunday, January 31, 2010 10:15 PM
Subject: Nifty is expected to FIRE Upside


Hi All,

This Forum really helped a lot for me to lean Technical analysis and now I am going to share my daily analysis with all of you. If anyone is interested in knowing analysis to any specific stock please let me know.
It looks like Nifty is going to fire now, it has given a buy signal today, which will be confirmed if the Market closes in + ve on Monday. On weekly chart 4615 is not ruled out but same time a new high of 6300 is also showing, so guess what, yes I am maad, in this recession I am expecting a new bull market and all time new high :)

The weekly stoploss is 4789 for a target of 4965/5030/5094  -

Buy only if stays above 4893.

Other stocks which looks bullish for Monday are :

1. HDIL  - Target 349 stoploss 315

2. JSWSTEEL - Target 1065/1099 Stoploss 920, buy only above 993

3. HDFC (Ready to explode) - immdiate Target 2493 but new highs are not rulled out in coming weeks.

4. Tata steel - Target 601, stoploss 551

This is just my personal view and if you are tradingin on this this is your own risk and you need to use your experiance to get in and get out of a trade.

Regards,
Sneha.

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[sharetrading] Fw:

 


Dear all
I have created my web blog in which i have given Business news/share market events /expert views .This may help to get good knowledge about investing and trading


I expect your comments for upcoming updates

Thanks and regards

Sakthi


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Please use your discretion before acting on the ideas expressed in the group.
Happy Trading,
United we grow!!!
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