Sensex

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

**[investwise]** Salzer Electronics (BSE 517059)-BUY

 

Salzer Electronics-Growing With L&T
BSE 517059
 
Salzer Electronics Limited, was established in 1985 to design and manufacture of world-class Cam Operated Rotary Switches in Technical Financial Collaboration with M/s. Saelzer Schaltgerate Fabrik, GmbH., Germany. The Company has a consistent track record for the last 22 years in Profit Making and declaring Dividends since 1991 - 1992.
 
Salzer manufactures Load Break Switches, Wiring Ducts, Terminal Connectors, Electro Magnetic Relays and Magnetic Wires. Besides Modular Wiring Accessories and Allied Specialty Products With international approval and innovative designs the market share for these products is continuously growing.
 
The Company has also entered into technical and financial collaboration with M/s. Plitron Manufacturing Inc., Canada(Leading Manufacturing of Transformers in North America), in 1995 for manufacturing Toraidal Transformers With 50% Buy-Back.
 
The Prestigious ISO 9001 Certification by NQA-UK has been obtained for Design, Development, Manufacture and Supply of CAM Operated Rotary Switches and Allied Products.
 
The Company has a strong R&D facility with the full-fledged laboratory and captive tool room to upgrade & develop products setting with new market trends. Our In-house R&D has been recognized by Ministry of Science and Technology, Department of Science and Industrial Research, Government of India.
 
Today, we are market leaders in India for Rotary Switches & PVC Wiring Ducts(channels).
 
Larsen & Turbo Limited, the Indian Industrial Giant in the field of Engineering has been marketing Salzer Switches throughout India since 1993.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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[Ways-2gain] Shadow banking - A paper on US alternate banking system [1 Attachment]

 
[Attachment(s) from samir shah included below]




--
The finest steel has to go through the hottest fire...!!!

Samir Kumar Shah.
9830405060

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Attachment(s) from samir shah

1 of 1 File(s)

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**[investwise]** UTV Software-Outperformer (Morgan Stanley)

 

UTV Software-A Bouquet Of Entertainment

 

 

Investment conclusion: We maintain our OW rating on the stock since: a) the solid pipeline of movies over F11-F12 should generate a healthy earnings stream; b) release of own IP by late CY10 in gaming should enable UTV's footprint into a new high growth gaming industry and lead to monetization of investments done till date; and c) broadcasting operations should turn profitable in F11. Our new PT of Rs540 implies upside potential of 16% from current levels.

 

Attractive Slate of Films; Launch of Games - Key Drivers: We estimate an EBIT CAGR of 123% over F10-F12e, largely driven by strong performance from the films and gaming segments. The upcoming slate of movies and television shows should be received well by the audience, in our view.

 

The Broadcasting business should turn profitable in F11 as the investments made in

the five channels result in the desired reach. The stock is trading at an EV/EBITDA of 12.8x/9.1x on our F11e/F12e forecasts, which we think does not fully reflect the earnings growth ahead.

 

What's new: We have reduced our F11e and F12e EPS by 32% and 36%, respectively, primarily due to reduced expectations from the gaming division. We now build in

console game sales of 1.5m units (vs. 3m unit sales previously) since we believe only 1 IP will be released in F11 (compared with 2 previously).

 

What's next: Success in the release of films like Udaan, Peepli Live, Gujarish and Saat Khoon Maaf in F11 and the own IP EI Shaddai should be the next triggers for the

stock, in our view.


Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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INVESTMENTS IN INDIA
We are low-risk, long-term investors. 

Stocks, mutual funds and the entire investment gamut.  Only financing/investment avenues in India will be discussed. 

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DG - Is Gold worth Buying?

 

Is Gold worth Buying ? A shocking Study

To understand this Study, we have to go back to years when human civilization started. Surprised! But yes, lets go back to those times where human civilization just started. Those days, economic activity was bare minimum and there were few trades between humans. For example, if a farmer wanted to build a home, he used to give some quantity of grain to carpenter, plumber etc and that system was called BARTER SYSTEM. So goods itself were basically used as currency.

Economic activity grew and then emerged an alternative currency which was in the forms of coins and we had what is called ASHRAFIYA. We had gold, silver and copper coins which were used as currency and it was Emperor who used to control the currency system. Then economic activity picked up further and since there was a limitation to the amount of gold, silver and copper we had, Paper currency emerged and till date such currency is the main form by which we all trade. Though now-a-days, we are witnessing another form of currency which is called Plastic Card Currency/ Credit Currency which if not used judiciously, can be a disaster. In fact,the entire US came to a halt in 2008 as credit currency was mis-used to unimaginable extent.




gold%2520rupee%2520Matrix Is Gold worth Buying ? A shocking Study

 

Today also, each emperor (so called Government) produces and controls their own currency as DOLLOR, Rupee, Dinar etc. But internationally, gold still remains the purest form of currency as it cannot be manipulated. Now in paper currency world over, Dollar became the most acceptable currency as US economy is still the biggest and almost all countries trade with US. After US dollar, the most acceptable form of currency is GOLD. If you have gold and you are not carrying dollar, you can still buy items in any country of the world but you cannot do so with Indian Rupee. Hence, in economic terms, gold is a currency.

Gold in relation to Dollar

Gold is a recognized international currency and currently Dollar is the most recognized Paper Currency. Hence gold is valued in terms of Dollar and not in Rupee. Now if we go back in the history, in the year 1976-81, gold had a dream bull run. From $100 per ounce in 1976, it had gone as high as $850 per ounce. That rise took place as people feared that US economy would collapse and $ would have no value. That time, US was in war with Vietnam & then came Iranian Revolution – inflation in US was at very high levels and in a way, there was hyper-inflation.

Once the war was over and inflation eased out, Gold came crashing down. In the year 1990, it was $400 per ounce and in the year 2000, it was close to $250 per ounce. That means the effect of bubble was so big that even in 20 years, the gold could not recover its original price and was languishing at less than 1/3 of its peak price. So please don’t be surprised if you will be able to buy gold again at levels of Rs 10000-12000.

Gold Price Chart from 1975 to 2010

gold%2520price%2520chart%2520from%25201975%2520to%25202010%2520london Is Gold worth Buying ? A shocking Study

Now, Dow Jones was at 10000 in the year 2000 and today also it is at same levels. The US economy is in bad shape and in last 10-12 years, it has not really made any significant progress, rather its debt is so much so high, that there is a fear that US would only have to print further paper currency i.e., dollar either to repay the loan or to keep in the economy going. The moment any government print notes without significant growth in the economic activity, the currency loses its value because of high inflation as same quantity of goods and services are being chased by more money. Anyway, US government is printing billions of dollar just to keep the economy afloat.

So, the rise in Gold is happening on the background that the most recognizable international currency is loosing its value. If US economy further goes down and government there keeps printing notes, again gold may rise in dollar terms. Such fear exist, even in 1979-80. We don’t know what lies ahead as we are not astrologers.

Dollar in relation to Rupee

In the year 1980, $1 was equal to Rs.8 and today as we are writing this article, $1 = Rs.46. Dollar has appreciated more than 5½ times in last 30 years. In the year 1991, there was a time, when Indian government was literally bankrupt and they had to devalue INR more than 25% in just a single day, just to repay the debt we had. That was the time, India was liberalized and government opened their economy and allowed foreign companies to do businesses. Since then, India has grown dramatically. The fact of the matter is that in the year 1991, sensex was close to 1000 and today it is at 18000.

Rupee%2520Dollar%2520relationship Is Gold worth Buying ? A shocking Study

As Indian economy keeps rising and US economy keeps doing down or at the max stands where it is, the likelihood is that dollar should depreciate. In the year 2007, dollar had depreciated to as low as Rs.37.

Gold with relation to Rupee

Gold was Rs.1450/- in the year 1980 and today it is Rs.18800/-. The rise of 13 times in last 30 years @ 9% p.a. But 5½ times of such rise is on account for Rupee depreciation in terms of dollar. So if we were to analyse the rise in gold price in relation to rupee alone without taking dollar factor, it is only 2.35 times. You see, even in terms of dollar, gold has risen only 1.5 times in last 30 years.

What can happen in future?

As we have said, we are not astrologers, so we can’t predict future. Though we can give some options that may happen:

  1. If dollar in comparison to INR were to stay at the same level of 45-46, then there is a likelihood that gold may rise further.
  2. If due to the sheer strength of Indian Economy, dollar flows to India by way of FDI, FII etc continues, rupee would strengthen and that would mean that even if gold were to rise in dollar terms, it will still decline in rupee terms. In fact, as it happened from 1980 to 2000 that gold kept going down in dollar terms but since the rupee was depreciating in dollar terms, the gold kept rising in Rupee terms. The reverse can happen now and gold may decline in rupee terms.

Basically, the price of gold depends on currency movements; for example,  in Yen terms (Japan) gold have moved 240% & in Pound terms (Britain) 390% in the same period (Check below Chart).

gold%2520appreciation%2520in%2520major%2520currencies Is Gold worth Buying ? A shocking Study

And you already know about Gold price in Rupee term. So what do you feel – whether India will grow & its currency will appreciate or economy will slow down & our currency will depreciate further? We don’t know what lies ahead, but looking at the history, we are not bullish on gold as much as we are bullish on Indian Equities. As long as world keep rising, gold will not give much return. Here we would like to add a recent quote of  legendary investor Warren Buffet – “We live in a world where 80 years out of 100 will be good. But we don’t know which 20 will be bad.”

We always used to suggest investors that gold is not an investment, it is an insurance which would save you in case the entire financial markets were to tumble down. The live example is that of Zimbabwe where, paper currency has lost its value and if you are holding paper currency, it is depreciating at a rate which is unimaginable. You have to carry crores of Zimbabwe currency just to buy a loaf of bread. Now if you are holding gold, you can actually buy or barter goods there. At least, you can go to neighboring country South Africa and buy what you want as gold is recognized everywhere.

Now, if an average Indian household were to look at their asset allocation, they already hold more gold in the form of jewelry or otherwise than they hold Indian equities. In fact, Indians are the biggest consumer of gold. One must consider gold as part of asset allocation tool and over-boarding on it may not be that a great idea. It may happen that in short run, gold may give better returns but mind you, it is Indian equities that will create a long lasting wealth for investors.

One more important point to note

It is often said that Gold is a Hedge against Inflation. But if you were to look at the graph below, you would find that gold has not kept pace with rising inflation. The blue line shows the actual price of gold and the red line shows the price which gold should have carried in order to match with inflation

Gold%2520inflation%2520relationship Is Gold worth Buying ? A shocking Study

In October 2009 when Gold was $ 1072, Bloomberg made this statement “While bulls say gold is cheap, the inflation-adjusted price is 15 percent above its 30-year average, Bloomberg data show.” First time in 100 years gold has touched it’s inflation price – what will happen next?

What they meant is that it is for the first time that gold price is above its inflation-adjusted price which clearly states that gold is over-priced as it is a sheer currency and nothing else.

Research on investor psychology

The following are Google trend charts. It analyzes a portion of Google web searches to compute how many searches have been done for the terms you enter, relative to the total number of searches done on Google over time. This clearly shows that people start searching for investment which have gone higher in recent past. Check 2nd Graph of Mutual funds which peaked in December 2007 when equity markets were also at their peak. No one was searching for Mutual funds in the end of 2008 or start of 2009 when actually it was the best time to invest. Upto 2007 end when it was best time to invest in gold but no one was searching for it but when price went up, the number of searched went up.

gold%2520search Is Gold worth Buying ? A shocking Study

Few points that we would like to leave open for discussion:

  • What will happen if Indians were to start selling gold as it is at its highest price
  • Why IMF sold gold when it was at $ 1045 per ounce
  • Today experts are saying – Buy Gold. why did not they said when gold was at Rs.5000
  • Gold has appreciated 13 times in last 30 years and sensex has appreciated 140 times. Still why Indians love gold more than sensex

But the problem is “The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent…“. So never try to time the markets/assets & keep a proper asset allocation.

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BigGains !!
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Fw: Investor's Eye: Update - HDFC Bank (Put on Hold), Crompton (PT revised to Rs292)

 
Investor's Eye
[July 20, 2010] 
Summary of Contents

STOCK UPDATE 

HDFC Bank
Cluster: Evergreen
Recommendation: Hold
Price target: Rs2,205
Current market price: Rs2,049

Put on Hold

Result highlights

  • HDFC Bank?s Q1FY2011 performance was in line with our projections. The bank?s quarterly net profit was up by 33.9% year on year (yoy) to Rs811.7 crore vis-?-vis our projection of Rs814 crore. The quarterly profit growth was driven mainly by a healthy growth in the net interest income (NII) and lower provisioning during the quarter.
  • The NII was up by a strong 29.4% yoy to Rs2,401.1 crore driven by an improved credit growth during the quarter. Meanwhile, the calculated net interest margin (NIM) deteriorated by 19 basis points sequentially due to a 34-basis-point sequential increase in the cost of funds, which, in turn, could be partly attributed to the move towards payment of interest on savings accounts based on daily balances. 
  • As expected, the non-interest income performance was weak, declining by 9.9% yoy to Rs939.9 crore led by a 91.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) fall in the treasury income for the quarter. However, the fee income was up by a fair 14.8% yoy. 
  • The growth in the operating expenses for the quarter was contained at 15.3% yoy. Consequently, the cost-to-income ratio stood at 47.7%, largely in line with that of the previous year. 
  • The asset quality of the bank improved on a sequential basis. The gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) declined by 1% quarter on quarter (qoq) to Rs1,791.2 crore; however, the net NPAs (NNPAs) increased by 5.2% qoq. In relative terms, the GNPA (%GNPA) improved to 1.21% in the quarter from 1.43% in the previous quarter (Q4FY2010). At the end of Q1FY2011, the restructured assets formed 0.3% of the advances book, in line with that of the previous quarter.
  • As a result of the improvement in the asset quality, the provisions during the quarter declined by 15.8% yoy to Rs555 crore. The provisioning coverage ratio, however, fell by 145 basis points sequentially to 77%.
  • The advances grew by a robust 40.9% yoy to Rs146,248 crore in the quarter. However, the deposit growth was relatively slower at 25.6% yoy to Rs183,033 crore, though significantly higher than the industry average of around 14%. Importantly, the demand deposits grew by a strong 37.4% yoy, leading to an improvement in the current account and savings account (CASA) ratio to 49.2% from 45% in the year-ago quarter. 
  • The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of the bank as at the end of Q1FY2011 stood comfortable at 16.3%, though lower than 17.4% during the previous quarter. The tier-1 CAR at the end of Q1FY2011 came in at 12.4%. 
  • HDFC Bank has reported a strong all-round performance for Q1FY2011, with a robust loan growth, strong NII growth and improving asset quality. Despite a sturdy quarterly performance and an optimistic outlook for the bank, we revise our rating on the stock from Buy to Hold due to a significant run-up in the stock price and a limited upside to our price target of Rs2,205 from the current levels. At the current market price of Rs2,049, HDFC Bank trades at 18.4x FY2012E earnings per share (EPS), 10.1x FY2012E pre-provisioning profit (PPP) and 3.3x FY2012E price-book value. We maintain our estimates and price target of Rs2,205 on the stock while revising our recommendation to Hold.

 

 

Crompton Greaves
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Hold
Price target: Rs292
Current market price: Rs265

Price target revised to Rs292

Result highlights

  • Stand-alone results in line, subsidiaries? results less than expected: Crompton Greaves Ltd (CGL)?s Q1FY2011 stand-alone performance was largely in line with our expectations. However, its consolidated performance was less than expected, mainly led by the sluggish sales of its subsidiaries in rupee terms.
  • Robust stand-alone results: On a stand-alone basis, the revenues grew by 14.4% year on year (yoy) to Rs1,342.9 crore, mainly led by a spectacular 28.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in the revenues of the consumer product division. The industrial system division?s revenue also grew by 22.6% yoy. The power system division, however, was the biggest disappointment with the sales up by a mere 0.3% yoy, primarily led by deferment in delivery by some of the clients. However, the management expects this to be a temporary phenomenon, with the delivery picking up in subsequent quarters. The company maintained a healthy operating profit margin (OPM) of 15.6% in the quarter as compared to 14.8% in Q1FY2010, driven by the containment of the other expenses. Boosted by a robust operating performance and other income, the net profit surged by 23.9% yoy to Rs142.2crore.
  • Fall in subsidiaries? revenue: The net revenue of the consolidated entity rose by mere 4.8% yoy to Rs2,302.2 crore (below our projection of Rs2,428.6 crore) mainly on account of a 6.3% y-o-y fall in the revenue from the subsidiaries. The revenue from the subsidiaries fell in the quarter on account of the appreciation in the rupee against the euro. In euro terms, the subsidiaries? sale was up by 7% yoy.
  • ...led to less than expected consolidated net profit: The OPM expanded to 12.9% in Q1FY2011 from 11.3% in Q1FY2010 backed by better stand-alone performance and operating performance by the subsidiaries. The subsidiaries? OPM expanded to 9.2% in the quarter from 7.2% in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. This margin expansion was aided by the containment of the other expenses as well as the raw material cost. This robust overall operating performance helped the adjusted net profit of the group to rise by 19% yoy to Rs190.9 crore, which is below our estimate. 
  • Pick-up in order intake: The order book at consolidated and stand-alone levels currently stands at Rs3,733 crore (vs Rs3,400 crore in Q4FY2010) and Rs6,802 crore (vs Rs6,400 crore in Q4FY2010) respectively. The order inflow has jumped to Rs2,732 crore during the quarter due to better order inflow for both the international subsidiaries (up 19% yoy at Rs914 crore) and the domestic business (up 53% yoy at Rs1,818 crore).
  • Outlook and valuation: In spite of less than expected growth in earnings, we maintain our estimates in view of pickup in power systems and better transmission and distribution (T&D) demand outlook in overseas markets. The management has maintained its revenue guidance for FY2011, with the revenue from the domestic operations up by 15-16% yoy and that from the overseas business higher by 5-6% yoy. The company is witnessing a good demand in overseas wind power market and expects it to grow further on the back of recovery in European wind power markets. 

    With strong market positioning and a robust balance sheet, CGL continues to be the best play in the domestic power T&D space. The company is well poised to capture the strong traction in demand for the power T&D products and services. We are increasing the target multiple of CGL to 18.7x (at 15% discount [from the earlier 20% discount] to BHEL?s target multiple of 22x FY2012 estimates) in view of better overseas demand outlook. Hence we are increasing our price target to Rs292. However, at current valuations of 17x FY2012 earnings, we feel CGL captures the 10.3% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in the earnings over FY2009-11E. Hence we maintain our Hold recommendation on the stock.

Click here to read report: Investor's Eye  


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Fw: Company Report: Allied Digital Services Ltd - “Allied to Growth” - BUY

Allied Digital Services Ltd - "Allied to Growth" - BUY

CMP Rs229, Target Rs304, Upside 33%

 

IMS business to drive 29% revenue CAGR over FY10-12

The experience and expertise in system integration (SI), technological depth, wide onsite reach and sizeable remote infrastructure make ADSL a leading IMS player in the domestic market. The company has gained a strong foothold in the US market with the acquisition of EPGS in mid-FY09. After struggling initially, EPGS is now on a sturdy growth path with FY11 revenue expected at US$55mn, a growth of 28% yoy despite offshoring. Overall IMS revenues of the company are expected to witness FY10-12 CAGR of 38% v/s 16% for SI segment. Resultantly, IMS revenue share would increase from 56% in FY10 to 64% in FY12.      

 

EBIDTA to expand 200bps over FY10-12; to reach 22% in FY12

ADSL's margin improved significantly by 200bps in FY10 driven by implementation of hybrid delivery model in EPGS, cross-selling of value-added services to EPGS clients, revenue mix shift in the domestic business towards high-margin IMS segment and towards RIM within. As per the management, EPGS operating margin has improved to 7% from near 0% when acquired. We expect ADSL's OPM to expand by 100bps each in FY11 and FY12 on further expansion in EPGS OPM (to 17-18% over next two years), continued revenue mix shift towards IMS/RIM and contribution from recently entered Lenovo deal.

 

To turn FCF positive in FY11; growth without dilution/leverage

We estimate ADSL to have turned CFO positive in FY10 and become FCF positive in FY11. Augmentation in CFO and FCF over FY10-12 would be driven by robust revenue growth, margin expansion, reduction in working capital intensity (due to decline in SI revenue share) and no significant capex (current NOC/SOC utilization is low). This and the robust Cash balance (Rs2.2bn, 20% of m-cap) eliminate the need for equity issuance and balance sheet leverage to fund growth over the next 3-4 years. Another pleasant feature about ADSL is its pure RoE of 20%+ (driven by high RoA) as the company has negligible leverage. The utilization of significant C&E would only improve RoE in the coming years.       

 

Robust 34% earnings CAGR; valuations cheap at 5.6x FY12 P/E

A strong revenue growth of 29% over FY10-12 and material margin expansion (200bps) would drive robust 34% earnings CAGR for ADSL. Given the strong earnings growth, significant improvement in cash flows and a robust/liquid balance sheet, we believe that current valuation of ADSL at 7.5/5.6x FY11/12 P/E is extremely attractive. Further, concerns with respect to EPGS growth/profitability may lessen considerably over the next couple of quarters through demonstrated performance. We see significant valuation re-rating to 7.5-8x FY12 P/E over the next 6 months.

 

Please click on the link to view the attachment.

http://content.indiainfoline.com/wc/research/researchreports/ADSL_200710.pdf

 

 



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