Sensex

Sunday, August 15, 2010

**[investwise]** Ambit goes Super Bull On Andhra Bank, places a target of Rs 195

 

Andhra Bank-The Dolphin Gets Moving

 

PAT growth of 25% for Q1FY11 to Rs3.2bn, NII growth at above 60%.

 

Margins at 3.72% for the quarter on bi-directional change in business; likely to sustain at above 3% for the full year.

 

NPA accretion from restructured pool at Rs0.93bn; provision coverage ratio stays comfortable at above 80%.

 

Restructured portfolio at Rs31bn witnesses cumulative ~5% slippages; management team confident of arresting slippages in single-digits.

 

Operating at sub-8% Tier-I ex-Q1 profits; proposed equity infusion of Rs6.5bn to flow in conditional on end-Mar'11 Tier-I staying sub-8%.

 

Introducing FY12E forecasts with modest growth assumptions.

 

Maintain 'BUY' with an FY12E-based TP of Rs195.

 

Andhra Bank announced a stupendous set of numbers in its Q1FY11 results with NII growth in excess of 66% and net profit growth at just above 25%. NII clocked in at Rs7.36bn while the net profit clocked in at Rs3.2bn. We are positively surprised by the QoQ movement in NIMs to 3.72% vis-à-vis 3.21% during the Jan-Mar'10 quarter, despite banks having had to migrate to a daily interest accrual on the savings deposits.

 

Valuation and recommendation: At its CMP of Rs142, the stock quotes at 1.3x and 1.1x our FY11E and FY12E ABVPS estimates of Rs108 and Rs130 respectively. We maintain our 'BUY' recommendation on the stock with an FY12E-based target price of Rs196 (rounded down to Rs195) that implies a 1.5x multiple on our FY12E ABVPS estimate of Rs130.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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**[investwise]** PGCIL-BUY (UBS Target Rs 135)

 


We initiate coverage with an anti-consensus Buy rating

Power Grid Corporation of India (Power Grid) is the government-appointed central

power transmission utility. We estimate India will add 100,000MW of generation

capacity in FY11-17, a three-fold increase, and that transmission and distribution

capex will reach 80% of generation capex by FY15 (compared with the historical

average of 40-45%). We think Power Grid will be a key beneficiary of this growth;

it already has more than a 50% market share and we expect this to increase.

 

Natural monopoly business, Power Grid is the central transmission utility

Power transmission is a natural monopoly and Power Grid's status as the central

transmission utility means it is also the co-ordinator of private sector participation in

the sector. This is the key difference from generation where no utility has this role.

 

Low-risk business model, 17-18% assured ROE

Power Grid has a low-risk business model, earning a regulated ROE of 17-18% on

operating assets. We estimate it will invest approximately Rs600bn in transmission

capex over the next five years, funded 70:30 through debt:equity, with the equity

contribution coming from internal accruals. As a government-owned company,

debt funding is not a concern. Power Grid has an ROIC of approximately 12% on

its transmission investment, with all costs as pass through.

 

Valuation: price target of R135.00

We derive our price target from a DCF-based methodology and explicitly forecast

long-term valuation drivers using UBS's VCAM tool, assuming 10.1% WACC.

Based on FY12E P/BV, Power Grid is trading at a 5% discount to National

Thermal Power Corp (NTPC), which we think makes it particularly attractive.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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**[investwise]** GSPL-BUY With A Target Of Rs 140 to Rs 169 per share (ISec)

 

GSPL-Good Fortune Smiles

BUY

 

Armed with the requisite constitutional power post the notification of Section 16 of the Petroleum & Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) Act, PNGRB has expedited the bid process for new inter-state gas pipelines, entailing ~Rs224bn capex.

 

The PNGRB has initiated bidding for four inter-state gas pipelines and is expected to open the financial bids for two pipelines, Mallawaram-Bhilwara (MBPL) and Mehsana-Bhatinda (MeBPL) in August, covering ~1,700kms distance each.

 

All the pipelines offer immense opportunities for gas transmission firms, GAIL and Gujarat State Petronet (GSPL). Three of the new pipelines would cover a distance of ~1,700Kms each and one would cover 740Kms.

 

The consortium among Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) and GSPL (52:26:11:11) has bid for both

MBPL and MeBPL, while GAIL and Adani-Welspun-ILFS have bid for MBPL and MeBPL respectively.

 

New pipeline infrastructure on fast track. Post the notification of Section 16, PNGRB Act, set-up of gas infrastructure in India has gained priority – the PNGRB has invited bids for setting up four inter-state gas pipeline networks. Bids for two pipelines have already been closed in July and as per our interaction with the regulator and industry, financial bids for both the pipelines will likely be opened soon.

 

Huge bonanza for gas transmission companies. Based on our calculations, shareholders of gas transmission companies would gain Rs76bn if a company wins all the contracts. This is based on a 12% RoCE over the life of the pipeline, a debt equity of 80:20 and execution period of three years.

 

Bidding based on at least 12% RoCE. Given that the bids are competitive and confidential, calculating the exact RoCE for the business is unfeasible, but since there are only two bidders for each pipeline, we believe bidding would be based on at least 12% RoCE.

 

Moreover, higher returns through higher tariff bids and increased

leverage can not be ruled out at present.

 

Best-case fair value upside – 70% for GSPL & 9% for GAIL. The GSPL

consortium has bid for all four new pipelines; if the consortium wins all four pipelines its fair value would jump 70% to Rs169/share, implying a 51% upside at the current levels.

 

Similarly, if GAIL wins MBPL, Bhatinda-Jammu (BJPL) and Surat-Paradip

(SPPL) pipeline bids, its fair value would increase 9% or Rs44/share to Rs553/share.


Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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Stocks, mutual funds and the entire investment gamut.  Only financing/investment avenues in India will be discussed. 

For any assistance, questions or improvement ideas, contact investwise-owner@yahoogroups.co.in

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**[investwise]** SKS Micro-Niche Player, Expensive But Still A BUY

 

SKS Micro-India's Sub Prime Lists At A Premium
 
SKS, an Indian company that makes tiny loans to villagers raised roughly $354 million in an initial public offering two weeks. While critics fear the move will encourage the microfinance lender - India's largest - to put shareholders above the poor it serves, the fact remains it still fulfills an unmet need.
SKS Microfinance's share sale, drew the ire of one of the leading lights in the field. A publicly traded company's traditional obligation is to make money for its shareholders, while the mission of microfinance - loans typically under $200 for starting businesses that banks won't make - is to lift people out of poverty.
 
Some say those are irreconcilable objectives. Others argue it is possible to serve two bottom lines simultaneously, reaping both financial and societal rewards. Either way, SKS's IPO - the first in India and the third worldwide - is likely to set a trend. Other Indian microfinance lenders are watching and waiting to see whether they too should tap capital markets.
 
"This is pushing microfinance in the loansharking direction," Muhammad Yunus, who won a Nobel Prize for his work at long established microfinance lender Grameen Bank, told The Associated Press. "It's not mission drift. It's endangering the whole mission."
 
"By offering an IPO, you are sending a message to the people buying the IPO there is an exciting chance of making money out of poor people. This is an idea that is repulsive to me," he said. "Microfinance is in the direction of helping the poor retain their money rather than redirecting it in the direction of rich people."
 
Advocates of commercialization say tapping capital markets and the deep pockets of private equity investors is the only way to get enough funding to sustainably serve billions of people without access to credit. Demand for microfinance funds in India in 2008 exceeded supply by $47.1 billion.
 
The backers of SKS include venture capital funds Sequoia Capital and Sandstone Capital, George Soros and Infosys chief mentor N R Narayana Murthy, considered an august and ethical figure in India's business world.
 
SKS set a price band of 850 to 985 rupees ($18.20 to $21.10) per share, valuing the company up to $1.6 billion. It has already raised 3.0 billion rupees ($63.7 million) from anchor investors including Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan.
 
That's a lot of zeros for a company that started out as a non-profit, and today aims to be the Coca-Cola of financial services, with a mission to lift 6.8 million families out of poverty one 2,000 rupee ($43) loan at a time.
 
It has grown at breakneck speed - looking to Starbucks and McDonald's for inspiration - adding 55 branches and over 200,000 borrowers a month in the year ended March. Its 21,154 employees today serve 90,000 villages, perhaps the hardest 3 percent of India's population to reach.
 
The company is now looking to monetize that distribution network.
 
SKS has tied up with Nokia, Bharti Airtel, and German food wholesaler Metro to provide customers with loans to buy their products. It has also sold 12.5 million life insurance policies for Bajaj Allianz and Birla Life.
 
SKS maintains there is no way it could have helped so many people so quickly without tapping commercial funding. SKS declined to comment for this story, saying it was legally prohibited from speaking to international media on the eve of its public offering.
 
"What we have done as a new generation of microfinance has actually shown that through a commercial approach you can actually raise significantly more capital and put more money into the hands of more poor women," chairman Vikram Akula - who made over $10 million from selling a stake in the company in April - told India's CNBC-TV18 Wednesday.
 
"In so doing, we actually think there is no conflict between the social and the commercial."
Others disagree. There have been political protests against microfinance groups seen as usurious in Andhra Pradesh state and religious leaders in Karnataka state last year issued a decree against paying back loans, resulting in massive defaults.
 
SKS charges, on average, 28 percent annual interest, which the company says allows its borrowers to make post-interest returns of 30 percent to 250 percent on their businesses.
SKS's rates compare favorably to village moneylenders, who demand 36 percent to 72 percent interest - or higher.
 
Grameen Bank charges an average of 18.5 percent, ranging from zero to 20 percent. Grant-based microfinance lenders in India also charge around 18 percent, according to research and ratings agency CARE. If SKS's clients could get an unsecured personal loan from an Indian commercial bank - which most of them can't - they'd pay 16 to 17 percent.
 
Xavier Reille, lead microfinance specialist at the World Bank hosted Consultative Group to Assist the Poor, argues that an IPO is a fine way to get more money to more poor people, if you have good enough governance to prevent profiteering.
 
"Will the client benefit?" he said. "I'd like to see if that will happen in the next two or three years. I want to make sure the clients' interests are represented on the board."
 
As SKS has grown and attracted more commercial funding, its borrowers have seen their ownership stake fall from 40 percent to 11 percent of the company, post-IPO. Grameen Bank, in contrast, is wholly owned by its borrowers. Grameen's Yunus says there is a more equitable way to grow: turn to the poor for financing.
 
Grameen funds its loans by taking deposits - a practice Indian regulators don't allow.
"The whole thing is to allow microfinance institutions to take deposits. It is a legal question. If you amend the law - which was done for us - you take money and lend it to poor people," Yunus said. "There is plenty of money in the villages."

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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Recent Activity:
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INVESTMENTS IN INDIA
We are low-risk, long-term investors. 

Stocks, mutual funds and the entire investment gamut.  Only financing/investment avenues in India will be discussed. 

For any assistance, questions or improvement ideas, contact investwise-owner@yahoogroups.co.in

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NEW! ==== Check our LINKS and FILES sections for a world of information. REGULARLY UPDATED.

NEW! ==== Check "Tracklist" in Links and Files sections for Investment Ideas.

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