Sensex

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

DG - Health Care Reform or Welfare Program--- Who Pays the Bill?

 

The White House has released another of its health care reform clarification
emails--- there will be more. It seems strange to me that the focus is on
insurance coverage rather than on the spiraling costs of health care itself.

Frankly, the drafters of the insurance reforms have little, if any,
understanding of insurance, risk assessment, or underwriting--- and nary a
clue about running a business. But why should they care? This is Robin Hood
politics, not business. Why do we continue to re-elect them is a far better
question.

Incidentally, I am not a health insurance salesman or healthcare
professional--- just a payer of far too much in small-group insurance
premiums in spite of a crazy-high deductible!

Insurance is neither a cost of obtaining healthcare services nor an expense
associated with those services. Insurance is an agreement in which a private
company agrees to pay part of someone else's medical expenses in exchange
for premiums it collects in advance from all of its insureds.

If President Obama owned the New World Order Health Insurance Company, he
would not be willing to insure an applicant with brain cancer nor would he
be willing to pay an unlimited lifetime benefit to all insureds--- not
without a premium that reflects the risks to his personal bank account.

Theoretically, insurance companies collect enough in premiums to operate
profitably while paying all the claims they have agreed to pay under
contracts with the individuals and groups that they insure. If we add more
risk, the insurance company has no choice but to increase premiums.

The persons who own the insurance companies (you and me, pal) expect them to
operate profitably. The companies employ thousands of actuaries, healthcare
industry expense analysts, claims adjusters, fraud inspectors, service
personnel, underwriters, risk assessors, etc. to assure that this happens.

Insurance companies protect us by standing ready to pay "covered" expenses
over and above whatever deductions, exclusions, and limitations are agreed
upon in advance. There is a viable legal contract between the parties---
financial disasters are avoided if we get really sick.

Within the terms of their agreements, insurance companies determine who is
insurable, and at what premium. Their job is to pay covered medical
expenses--- and they have a vested interest in keeping medical expenses as
low as possible. But do they really?

Just as the financial crisis was partially caused by business conflicts of
interest so too are there conflicting interests in the
insurance-healthcare-drug-medical supply industries. These conflicts reduce
the natural desire to control the costs of all healthcare services.

We can control the industry to eliminate the conflicts of interest. We can
(and should) police the boardrooms of insurance companies to eliminate
"abuse of shareholders" through excessive salary packages.

Perhaps we should require health care insurers to be "mutual" companies, or
maybe "network" doctors should not be allowed to bill patients for amounts
above what the insurance actually pays. Maybe the annual deductible could be
dealt with differently without increasing premiums.

We can tax for-profit hospitals higher to encourage more non-profit care
facilities; we can keep doctors, insurance and drug companies from owning
hospitals; we can cap jury awards for medical malpractice or error, and we
can give tax relief to medical practitioners who provide free health
services to the indigent and uninsurable.

But the government's efforts to redefine insurance are counter-productive.
As cold as it may sound, if we make insurance companies cover pre-existing
brain tumors, the expense is coming out of your pocket in the form of higher
insurance premiums or higher taxes--- and it's likely that the healthiest
among us will be the ones paying the increased taxes.

The White House list of reforms, every one of them, would increase insurance
company costs and our premiums while doing nothing to reduce the price of
the medical services we receive. They only sound good to those who do not
understand insurance.

Insurance is designed to pay the bills--- reforms need to make the bills
smaller for everyone. Does this plan cut any costs, or just increase
insurance premiums for those who will still be able to pay them?

Group health (and even dental) insurance is a benefit used by many employers
to attract and retain employees. I've heard rumors that the reform plan will
tax employers who don't provide insurance and tax those employees who
receive the benefits. True or not, neither approach helps the economy or
reduces health care expenses--- both raise taxes for everyone.

Insurance can only be made more affordable by reducing the costs of the
healthcare that is provided. Let's focus on streamlined record keeping,
controlling ambulance chasers, jury awards, drug company advertising, an
army of lobbyists, and industry conflicts of interest.

We should also make all government employees, from the top down, dance to
the same tune as the rest of us--- that'll do away with the tax on benefits.
Then, next chance you get, do away with an incumbent.

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BigGains !!
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DG - Global Liquidity

 

 

Global Liquidity

 

Same chart, except with the dollar index instead of gold



Annual percentage rate of change in the combination of a US money measure called the monetary base plus the total change rate of reserves of the main Central Banks of the world. 

It basically measures how fast the central banks are adding liquidity by measuring the growth rate of their own reserves at the IMF, then adding the monetary base to overweight the US. Source: IMF & Fed. Note also that the reserves data on which the charts are based do not include all Central Banks. China, for example, does not report data to the IMF. 


A note on this global liquidity chart:
We've had a few question the correlation lag between the two lines in both the late '70s and recently. They ask, if the correlation is supposed to be so good then why was there a 2+ year lag in both cases between the peak in liqudity and the peak in gold. Our answer is related to sentiment based on having wrong facts. Both in the late '70s and recently, most people are not aware or do not believe that inflation is running much higher than what their governments say. When they do start to truly believe that inflation is significant, gold and many other commodities will move much higher. 

Be very cautious about extrapolating that gold prices are due to fall greatly *and* on the longer term. We recommend that you notice that global liquidity peaked in 1977 and gold didn't peak until 1980, it's still expanding at over 10% even though the current trend is down, and also that there are strong indications that global liquidity is only temporarily dropping (see GDP and money creation above)(written and as of May 2006). 


Annual percentage rate of change obtained by adding the GDP growth rate of the G7 countries, adding the same growth rate percentage data from the global liquidity graph above this one, and then subtracting the average of the interst rates of the 10 year Treasury bond and the 10 year Euro bond. 

In other words, we're measuring the production rate of goods and services of the majority of the Western world, adding in excess money creation via the measurement of central banking reserves growth, and then subtracting an average interest rate to account for the cost of the money created and used. Source data is from the IMF, the ECB, & the Federal Reserve.

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DG - The Gold/Silver Ratio

 

The Gold/Silver Ratio

 

The Gold/Silver Ratio
August 14, 2009

The following is an interview I did recently discussing the gold/silver ratio. This topic seems to surface from time to time and Tom Jeffries and I explored it together.

Tom Jeffries:  David Morgan is one of the world's foremost experts on silver.  I would like you to check in with David's excellent Web site, silver-investor.com.  That's where you can check out David's monthly investment newsletter, The Morgan Report (full disclosure: I read it every month myself).  And there is a ton of excellent resources for the investor of all stripes.

You talk many times in your lectures, and you've talked in The Morgan Report recently, about something called the gold/silver ratio and where it's going.  Can you talk a little bit about that?

David Morgan:  It is a controversial subject.  There are a lot of people who don't put any credence into it at all, there are some people who put a whole lot of credence into it, and then there are people, like me, who absolutely put some credence into the ratio.

The basics of it are this—and I like to go for the long-term version, so—starting at the 12thcentury or so and going to present time, if you looked at every one foot in length being 100 years (or one century), you would see throughout the entire timeframe that you would have several feet in length and it would only be in the last 19 inches of that chart where the ratio got above 16 to 1.  (Note: a discussion of this is done by Franklin Sanders in his book Silver Bonanza.)

In fact, the ratio from the 12th century to roughly the 17th century was about 12 to 1, which is what I call the "natural ratio" at that time, and I define the natural ratio as the amount of silver to gold in the earth's surface.  Right now it's less than 12 to 1, having dropped down to about 8 to 1, which means that there's about eight ounces of silver in the earth's surface for every ounce of gold.

So that's the natural ratio, and that ratio held for hundreds and hundreds of years with the free market making the determination—amazing!  Then, Sir Isaac Newton monetized it at a ratio of 15.5 to 1 after England was having a terrible time with their fiat money system.  Newton came in and put them on a gold standard and then, with his brilliance, he picked a number basically based on the marketplace (at that time), which determined that the correct ratio of silver to gold was 15½ ounces of silver to 1 ounce of gold.

And that's what we called the monetary of the classic ratio, and that held roughly from the 17th century for hundreds of years through about the 1873 timeframe.  Then there was The Crime of 1873, which we don't have time to go into, but that was roughly where silver was demonetized in the United States, and after that, you've seen the ratio undergo some really wide swings. 

It's gone up as far as 100 to 1 a couple of times, and we've seen it just kiss the classic ratio of 16 to 1 for a day. In modern times, meaning during the last big run-up in January of 1980, it got back to classic ratio, but again, it was only for a day or two at the most.  And then the ratio dropped off.

So having given you all that background, what does it mean?  For some it means you can trade the ratio, which is something that I do personally.  Secondly it's a good indicator for the overall direction of the market as far as I'm concerned.  When silver's leading gold, we've got more momentum in the metals than when it's not, and silver has basically outperformed gold since 2003 until recently.  In other words, in the ratio from 2003, the bottom of the silver market, and when gold was at $252 in 2000, silver went from the 80 to 1 ratio down to about 55. Currently it is around the 65 to 1 level.

And it was working its way even lower when we had this credit crisis surface, which didn't surprise me.  We got a big spike on the ratio and actually it got to around 90 to 1—again, very temporarily, maybe for a day or two.

I think it shows that silver is still undervalued to gold, but I'm open-minded enough to think that maybe something else is going on.  In an absolute all-out deflation, which would be the better—gold or silver?  The preponderance of evidence is that gold does better.  I wrote a paper on this; it was in The Morgan Report, and I also did a couple of speeches on this subject.  The record is mixed as far as how silver does in a deflation.

Gold is pretty much known to do well in deflations, and this is all history.  And because it is history, it doesn't absolutely guarantee you that the next time around gold will do great in a deflation, but it certainly implies that it will.

As far as silver is concerned, there have been times that silver did better than gold in a deflation, and many times where it did not.  But overall it's done fairly well and it held its purchasing power, so even in a deflationary scenario I wouldn't give up on silver.  But as far as what will it do, if we look at it today we would say gold has actually done better than silver here in the last several months, because the ratio has gone from the 55 to 1 back to around the current 65 level.

Regardless, the overall perspective would be, how is silver doing against all other financial assets, including gold?  And the answer to that is, essentially, gold has done best against all other financial assets, the general equities, the mining stocks, housing sector, bonds; and silver has done better than the base metals and most other sectors.

Silver is partly industrial and partly monetary and you can argue all day if it's both or not.  I'm absolutely convinced that it's both.  I've never argued that silver is just money.  I have argued very strongly that silver is money but it's not only money; it's certainly an industrial metal as well.

In summary, if [our readers] think—as I do—that the main problem ahead is a currency crisis with the U.S. dollar, then I would urge you to study what silver did during the last period (most recent) during a prelude to a currency crisis.  Basically, it outshone almost everything!  The problem is people are too shortsighted and look out only so far, not realizing that once everyone understands that the death of the dollar is imminent, there will be a mad rush for the precious metals both gold and silver!

Mr. Jeffries:  David, always a pleasure to have some time with you.  We really get a kick out of talking with you, but also I also commend you, too, for the learning.  We always have some great information.



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BigGains !!
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