Sensex

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Fw: Investor's Eye: Update - Ipca Laboratories, Power, Telecommunications

 

Sharekhan Investor's Eye
 
Investor's Eye
[June 24, 2013] 
Summary of Contents
 
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STOCK UPDATE
Ipca Laboratories 
Recommendation: Hold
Price target: Rs675
Current market price: Rs648
Price target revised to Rs675
Key points
  • Marginal impact of DPCO 2013 for Ipca: As the notification under the Drug price Control Order (DPCO) 2013 has been issued for 150 drugs (out of 652 formulations meant to be brought under the price control), the pharmaceutical (pharma) industry is able to determine the net impact of the development on their revenues and profits. Going by the formula adopted in the notification to determine the ceiling price of the controlled drugs, most of the front-line players are set to experience a negative impact on their revenues and profits. However, we believe the incremental impact for Ipca Laboratories (Ipca) would be virtually neutralised, as price erosion in some of products would be materially compensated by the scope to increase the price of the other products (which are either not under the list of price control or do not command market leadership). However, a slow offtake by traders and stockists to clear old inventory would hamper sales in the domestic market for the next two to three months. The domestic formulation business contributes nearly 32% of the net revenues of Ipca. We expect the revenue from the company's domestic business to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% over FY2013-15, mainly driven by improved productivity of the field force and new product launches in the key segments.
  • Depreciating rupee to benefit exports; would materially limit forex loss on debts: A sharp depreciation in the Indian Rupee (INR) against the major other international currencies is set to affect the export-oriented players like Ipca which also have a substantial amount of foreign debts on their book. Exports constitute nearly 63% of the net revenues of Ipca and the company has a practice to cover 30-40% of receivables through forward contracts. As per the latest available information, Ipca has entered into forward contracts to cover part of its exports at Rs56.12 per US Dollar (USD), which is not significantly different from the prevailing rate of INR against the USD. Besides, the uncovered portion of exports is also naturally hedged partly by way of raw material imports, which constitute nearly 28% of the exports. However, as the company has nearly $70 million of foreign debts outstanding (which would trigger a marked-to-market foreign exchange [forex] loss) and $17 million of the same is payable in FY2014, forex loss is bound to accrue, though the same would be materially compensated by the gains on exports. 
  • We upgrade price target to Rs675 on roll-over of valuation: We expect Ipca to continue to show a strong performance in the coming quarters, despite a negative industry environment at home and inflating foreign repayment obligations due to a volatile local currency. Ipca is currently trading at a premium of 22% and 43% over its three-year and five-year historical price/earnings (P/E) multiples. We believe the re-rating is commensurate with the improvement in the company's performance and prospects. Owing to a better visibility on its earnings, we have rolled over our valuation to the earnings estimate for FY2015 (from 14x average earnings of FY2014 and FY2015 earlier). Accordingly, our price target stands revised up by 10% to Rs675 (14x FY2015E earnings per share). However, due to a limited upside to the stock price from the current level, we maintain our Hold rating on the stock.

 
SECTOR UPDATE
Power
Another positive regulatory action in support of ailing power sector
Last Friday, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) approved that imported coal could be a pass through for all domestic coal-based power projects commissioned by March 2015. However, we understand that this is applicable for power producers who are having domestic coal linkage and power purchase agreement (PPA) but due to shortage of domestic coal supply, they are forced to import coal and the consequent higher cost would be passed through the PPA by law. 

We believe this is not new in the system, as NTPC has been importing coal to meet the supply gap and as a usual practice it is allowed to pass the additional cost on to the consumers. However, there was no established law or formula for the same. Previously, the regulated power producers used to take permission on an ad hoc basis from the state electricity boards (SEBs) and do the same. Hence, with the approval of the coal price pass-through mechanism, it would be by law and permission would not be required. In our view, it's another positive regulatory action in favour of the ailing power sector. Nevertheless, this development is not applicable for imported coal-based projects like Tata Power's ultra mega power project (UMPP) and Adani Power's Mundra power plant as a compensatory tariff for them was recommended by the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) and a separate committee is working towards that.

Coal India Ltd (CIL) is expected to supply coal as per the revised fuel supply agreement (FSA) norms to the new power plants commissioned after 2009, which is to the extent of 65%, 65%, 67% and 75% of domestic coal for the remaining years (FY2014-17) respectively of the twelfth five year plan. However, given the scenario, it is apparent that it would be challenging for CIL to meet the increasing demand of coal and the higher import would remain as the obvious option with the power plants. We believe large independent power producers (IPPs) would be certainly looking at importing coal on their own and this development ensures them the cost would be passed on to the consumers; hence, eventually the productivity of power in the country should improve. We believe the major beneficiaries of the development would be the IPPs having regulated model. Companies like CESC, Lanco Infratech, Jaiprakash Power Ventures, Indiabulls Power, KSK Energy and GMR could be the beneficiaries. 

CESC remains our top pick in the sector. We continue to maintain Hold rating on the stock with a price target of Rs385 (based on the sum-of-the-parts [SoTP] method). 
 
Telecommunications
Incumbents report robust performance
COAI May 2013 subscriber numbers: Incumbents continued with a robust subscriber addition trend, Vodafone was the highest gainer with 0.91 million subscribers, Idea and Bharti added 0.87 and 0.85 million subscribers respectively.
The Cellular Operators' Association of India (COAI) released its subscriber base figures for May 2013. In May, the telecommunications (telecom) sector continued to witness decent subscriber additions with the top three operators, ie Bharti Airtel (Bharti), Idea Cellular (Idea) and Vodafone India (Vodafone) leading the pack in terms of subscriber additions.
The top three operators have reported strong subscriber additions for the past three months, which reaffirms the fact that the top three operators are gaining in terms of the market share on account of a reduction in the competitive intensity and new norms such as stricter subscriber verification norms.
Overall, the top three operators again gained in subscriber market share at the expense of the smaller operators. The cumulative subscriber market share of the top three operators increased marginally to 70.12% in May 2013 vs 70.05% in April 2013.
 
Outlook and valuation
  • The incumbents continued to gain market share in the current month. The top three operators cumulatively now account for more than 70% of the total subscriber market share. We believe that the Indian mobile telephony space is definitely consolidating in favour of these three operators. The data uptake has also seen a substantial improvement in the recent months, and the operators in their commentary sounded very positive on the growth opportunity for this segment and believe that the data would drive the next big growth wave for the telecom players. Though the outcomes of a lot of regulatory issues remain ambiguous and are being contested in the court of law, we believe that the tepid response to the last two 1800Mhz spectrum auctions would result in the lowering of the spectrum prices as and when the licence comes for approval, bringing some sanity to the system.
  • The environment is thus gradually turning favourable for the telecom companies with receding competitive intensity and visible signs of return of pricing power. We continue to maintain our cautiously optimistic view of the telecom sector and maintain our positive bias for Bharti (rated: Hold; price target: Rs340) and Idea.

Click here to read report: Investor's Eye
 
Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article.
 
 

Fw: Annual Report Analysis - Petronet LNG - BUY

 

IIFL
Petronet LNG: Tracking project execution – BUY
CMP Rs123, Target Rs173, Upside 40.4%
Growth potential of Petronet LNG (PLNG), over the medium term, is linked to the execution of its ongoing projects especially the second jetty at Dahej and the Kochi terminal. Over the longer term, execution of the Gangavaram project will also be keenly watched given the delays witnessed in Kochi project. In its FY13 annual report, PLNG has given detailed information on the status of these projects and has also provided outlook on international and domestic LNG markets. We believe, the company is well poised to see a strong growth in revenues and profitability in the medium term as relative affordability of LNG will improve post the gas price hike. We maintain our BUY recommendation with a reduced target price of Rs173.

Projects going on schedule except some delays at Kochi
The overall progress achieved for the second jetty at Dahej terminal is at 70% and is likely to be commissioned by Q1 CY14. The Kochi Terminal after seeing substantial delays is likely to be commissioned by July/August 2013, initially with FACT & Kochi Refinery consumers. For expansion of regasification capacity at Dahej, PLNG has completed pre-qualification of prospective bidders for selection of contractors for the lump sum EPC contracts. For the Gangavaram terminal, a binding term sheet with Gangavaram Port has been signed and the option of early commencement of supplies through a Floating Storage and Re-gassification Unit (FSRU) is being evaluated. With the objective to achieve the strategic goal of developing storage and re-gassification capacity of 30mtpa by 2020, PLNG is keeping provision for further enhancement of Dahej Terminal from 15mtpa to 20mtpa.

Return ratios decline but balance sheet and cash flows gain strength
During FY13, PLNG saw a decline in return ratios with RoE decreasing by 537bps yoy, RoCE falling 88bps yoy and RoA dropping 136bps yoy. Nevertheless, both RoE and RoCE remained comfortably over the 20% mark. During FY13, PLNG saw a 45% jump in operating cash flows and saw second consecutive year wherein operating cash flows exceeded capital expenditure requirements. Balance sheet gained further strength with gross debt/equity improving to 0.6x from 0.9x and net debt/equity falling to 0.3x from 0.6x.
Click here for the detailed report on the same.
Warm Regards,
Amar Ambani


Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Fw: Investor's Eye: Update - HCL Technologies, Gateway Distriparks

 

Sharekhan Investor's Eye
 
Investor's Eye
[June 18, 2013] 
Summary of Contents
 
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STOCK UPDATE
HCL Technologies 
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs900
Current market price: Rs779
Upgraded to Buy with increased price target of Rs900
We recently interacted with Sanjay Mendiratta, head-Investor relations, HCL Technologies (HCL Tech), to gain an insight into the current state of the company's business as well as the concerns over and the impact of the impending US immigration bill. The company remains focused on the re-bid/renewal deal space as it still sees plenty of growth opportunities here at least for the next two years. Moreover, with a well-entrenched presence and proven capability to execute large deals of size of over $200-300 million, HCL Tech is now participating in and getting invited to big-ticket deals of size in the $400-500-million range. 

The infrastructure management services (IMS) vertical will continue to drive the incremental growth going ahead, just as it has done for the past eight quarters (the IMS vertical contributed 80% of the incremental revenues in the past four trailing quarters). On the other hand, the information technology (IT) services vertical is likely to remain in soft trajectory on account of the continuing weakness in the discretionary spending (engineering, and research and development [R&D] and enterprise application, 36% of revenues both discretionary in nature). Nevertheless, with signs of improvement in the large integrated deals for application, support and maintenance (ASM), and business process outsourcing (BPO), there could be some improvement in the growth trajectory of the core IT services and BPO businesses. 

On the margin side, the management continues to see earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margin corridor of 19-20% for the coming quarter. However, with the rupee depreciating consistently, the margin could improve further, if the rupee stays at 57-58 a dollar over the coming quarters. 

The management acknowledged the potential threat of the impending US immigration bill and expressed concern over the outplacement clause in the current form (we hope for some dilution in the final bill). Nevertheless, among the top four IT companies, HCL Tech is relatively better placed, as around 50% of its total workforce in the USA holds an H1-L1 visa against a higher percentage of H1-L1 visa holders in Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys and Wipro. 

Valuation: HCL Tech remains the best performing stock among the IT pack with an annual return of close to 60%. We remain positive on HCL Tech's earnings predictability over FY2014 and FY2015 driven by the strong momentum in its IMS vertical and its own success in the re-bid market. Further, with consistency in the rupee's depreciation, there is a further potential of an upward revision in the earnings estimates for FY2014 and FY2015. Our current estimates are based on a USD-INR rate of Rs54 and Rs53.5 for FY2014 and FY2015 respectively. We see further upgrades driven by the higher sensitivity of HCL Tech's EBIT margin to the rupee's depreciation. At the current market price of Rs779, the stock trades at 12.7x and 11.7x earnings estimates for FY2014 and FY2015, though we currently maintain our estimates (we will revisit our estimates after the announcement of the Q4FY2013 results). We expect a potential earnings upside post-currency reset. Thus, we have upgraded our rating on HCL Tech from Hold to Buy with an increased price target of Rs900 per share.
 
Gateway Distriparks 
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs163
Current market price: Rs110
Norwest Venture Partners to invest in Snowman Logistics
Norwest Venture Partners to invest Rs60 crore in Snowman Logistics Ltd; GDL to remain promoter
Gateway Distriparks Ltd (GDL) and its subsidiary, Snowman Logistics Ltd (SLL), have today executed a share subscription agreement with Norwest Venture Partners (NVP), pursuant to which NVP will invest Rs60 crore (1.7 crore shares at Rs35/share) in SLL by subscription to SLL's equity shares.

Along with it, GDL will acquire 5% shareholding in SLL from the International Finance Corporation (IFC) for a total consideration of Rs18 crore (GDL's acquisition at Rs35/share). Following the completion of the GDL's acquisition and the NVP's investment (the transactions), NVP will hold 14.3% stake in SLL. The shareholding of GDL will come down from 53% to close to 51% of diluted equity base.

Outlook and valuation
We continue to have faith in GDL's long-term growth story based on the expansion in each of its three business segments, ie container freight station (CFS), rail transportation and cold storage infrastructure. Also, a revival in the export-import (EXIM) trade would augur well for the company. At the current market price, the stock trades at 8.1x and 6.2x its FY2014E and FY2015E earnings. We maintain our Buy recommendation on GDL with the price target of Rs163.

Click here to read report: Investor's Eye
 
 
Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article.
 
 

Friday, June 07, 2013

Fw: Investor's Eye: Special - Q4FY2013 Construction earnings review, Q4FY2013 Capital Goods & Engineering earnings review, Q4FY2013 earnings review

 


Sharekhan Investor's Eye
 
Investor's Eye
[June 07, 2013] 
Summary of Contents
 
 
SHAREKHAN SPECIAL
Q4FY2013 Construction earnings review    
Decline in revenues and margin contraction; interest cost weighs down earnings
Key points
  • EPC companies continued to witness stress on top line and bottom line; margin declines: For Q4FY2013, the net profit of the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) companies (excluding Punj Lloyd [Punj], Ramky Infra [Ramky] and C&C Construction [C&C]) declined by 43% year on year (YoY) on account of a de-growth in the revenue EBITDA coupled with higher interest expenses. Our construction universe (excluding Punj, Ramky and C&C) witnessed a cumulative decline in the revenues to 8% YoY barring Gayatri Projects (Gayatri; which registered a 15% year-on-year [Y-o-Y] growth). At the operating level, all the companies witnessed a margin contraction (except Simplex Infrastructure, which showed a 104-basis-point improvement YoY) due to higher raw material prices. Gayatri and Ramky were the worst hit as their margins declined by 736 basis points and 336 basis points respectively. On the other hand, Punj and Unity Infraprojects (Unity) registered a decline of 239 basis points YoY and 192 basis points YoY respectively in their operating profit margins (OPMs). Overall, due to the deteriorating margin performance, the EBITDA for our universe (excluding Punj, Ramky and C&C) declined by 22% YoY in Q4FY2013. Further, the 15% Y-o-Y rise in the interest cost led to a decline at the earnings level.
  • Asset developers fare relatively better: On the other hand, the infrastructure developers performed relatively better in comparison with the EPC players. The aggregate revenues for IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd (ITNL) and IRB Infrastructure Developers (IRB) combined were up by 1% YoY, lower than our expectation, on account of the lower execution. On the margin front, though IRB saw a contraction (53 basis points) due to margin contraction in the build-operate-transfer (BOT) segment, ITNL witnessed an expansion of 145 basis points in the margin on account of the higher share of its revenues coming from its construction arm, resulting in a cumulative 6% growth at the operating level. However, the interest and depreciation expenses on an aggregate increased by 20% YoY and 8% YoY respectively. However, ITNL reported a reversal of the deferred tax liability and IRB reported an effective tax rate of 18%, which led to a cumulative net profit growth of 11% YoY.
  • Outlook: For the last eight quarters, the infrastructure sector has been continuously underperforming with its net profit growth being in the negative territory. Poor execution due to want of clearances, approvals and land along with a continuous rise in the interest rates has been leading to the poor performance. The situation is further aggravated by the order intake continuing to be weak across segments. Thus, the three key things that are monitorable going ahead include: (1) faster clearances/approvals and land acquisition; (2) a pick-up in order inflow across sectors; and (3) a reduction in interest rates. Till then, we prefer being very selective and our top pick remains ITNL among the larger players and Unity among the smaller players.
 
Q4FY2013 Capital Goods & Engineering earnings review    
Margin pressure across the board; remain selective
Key points
  • Sluggish sales growth; in line with our expectation: During Q4FY2013, our coverage universe of capital goods and engineering companies showed a sluggish sales growth of 5% year on year (YoY). The sales of Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) and Thermax declined while PTC India (PTC), V-Guard Industries (V-Guard) and Larsen and Toubro (L&T) showed a very healthy sales growth of 52% YoY, 34% YoY and 10% YoY respectively during Q4FY2013. Sequentially, our universe grew by 47% due to seasonal nature of the business, where majority of the sales are booked in the last quarter of the financial year. All the companies under our coverage universe have performed largely in line with our estimate at the sales level.
  • Margin pressure continues; growth at the cost of margin trend could emerge: During Q4FY2013, most of our coverage companies observed a margin pressure, except PTC and Thermax, which showed a flattish to marginal expansion. We believe in the current macro-economic environment, the companies are experiencing rising competition to win projects or retain market share, which could lead to compromised margin. Moreover, in the current situation, the management of several companies shared that winning projects would be more important than having higher margin. Thermax managed to expand its margin by 40 basis points YoY at 11.5% with the help of cost control and value engineering, despite a decline in sales YoY. PTC's operating profit margin (OPM) remained positively biased with increasing share of power volume from tolling arrangement in the overall power trading volume. 
  • Weak working capital, higher interest cost and lower other income dented the overall profitability: The interest cost for the universe doubled YoY and grew by 10% quarter on quarter (QoQ) during Q4FY2013 mainly due to an increase in the interest cost of heavyweights like L&T and BHEL. Adding to this, the other income of our universe (down 3% YoY) dented profitability (down 6% YoY). The net working capital days of all our coverage companies went up except in the case of PTC. PTC witnessed a decline in its sticky receivables as it received payment from the state electricity boards (SEBs) of Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh. Effectively, the net profit of our coverage universe declined by 6% YoY in Q4FY2013. The profit after tax (PAT) of Crompton Greaves Ltd (CGL) and V-Guard declined sharply while PTC was the only company that recorded a positive earnings growth. Thermax and BHEL showed a decline of 4-5% in the net profit. On a sequential basis, due to seasonality of the business, the PAT of our universe doubled in Q4FY2013.
  • Order inflow improved in Q4, but backlog yet to impress; book-to-bill ratio is historically low: The overall order inflow quantum of our coverage universe improved in Q4FY2013 both on YoY and QoQ bases, largely driven by the better record of the two heavy weights, BHEL and L&T. The order inflow for Q4FY2013 grew by 67% YoY and 112% QoQ to Rs53,024 crore. This is supported by a significant order inflow of BHEL to the tune of Rs20,957 crore as against Rs7,000 crore in Q4FY2012 and around Rs2,000 crore in Q3FY2013. However, the cumulative order backlog of our universe is yet to indicate any significant growth trajectory. At the end of the FY2013, the order backlog of all our coverage companies, except BHEL (which declined by 15%), grew in the range of 5-15%. The book-to-bill ratio stood at 2.3x, which is a five-year low in our coverage universe.
  • Positive triggers for the sector: The order awarding activity could pick up triggered by: (1) a cut in the interest rates; and (2) an uptick in the demand environment followed by the positive policy actions.
  • Negative triggers for the sector: The capital goods and engineering stocks continued to face risk from the continuous competitive pricing pressure, leading to a margin contraction amid a slow demand environment due to policy inaction, the deadlock in the power sector and the continuing sluggishness in the execution of the infrastructure projects. Moreover, the environment is yet to be considered conducive to kick-back the investment cycle in the economy.
Q4FY2013 earnings review   
Given the improving macro scenario, supportive policies and general uptick in economic activity, FY2014 earnings growth is likely to be much higher than 6% reported in FY2013
Key points
  • Earnings growth exceeds low expectations; stress visible across sectors: On an aggregate basis, the earnings of the Sensex companies grew by 6.6% year on year (YoY; by 7% ex oil companies) in Q4FY2013. The growth was higher than our estimate largely due to our conservative estimate (derived on the basis of the weak macro-economic numbers) and positive surprise in select sectors, like automobiles (auto; due to the yen's depreciation and a better product mix) and metals (due to a pick-up in export volumes). Notably, these were the sectors (especially auto) which had disappointed in Q3FY2013 leading to the lower expectations. However, sectors like telecommunications (telecom) and banking (State Bank of India [SBI]) disappointed on the earnings front.
  • Top performers and losers: The breadth of the earnings growth has not improved for the past few quarters and in Q4FY2013 also 11 out of the 30 companies in the Sensex showed a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) decline in their profit. The major disappointments came from Bharti Airtel, Cipla, Tata Power, GAIL and SBI. On the other hand, companies like Maruti Suzuki (Maruti), Tata Motors, Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M), Tata Steel and Dr Reddy's Laboratories Ltd (DRL) delivered a positive surprise.
  • Revenue growth slowdown getting broad-based: The aggregate revenues of the Sensex companies grew by 6.5% YoY (ex oil companies), largely in line with our estimate. The growth in the sales has been declining for the past five quarters and many sectors are in the grip of the slowdown. The slowdown in the economy and consumption has moderated the revenue growth for the corporates. During Q4FY2013, the growth in the revenues was led by pharmaceutical (pharma), fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) and information technology (IT) sectors. Sectors like capital goods, metals and banking (public sector banks) have shown a low single-digit growth in the top line.
  • Margin largely stable YoY: During Q4FY2013, the EBITDA margin of the Sensex companies (ex banks) stood at 19% (up 80 basis points YoY), in line with our estimate. The margin uptick on a Y-o-Y basis was seen mainly in Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), followed by the metal and pharma companies. However, IT, telecom and capital goods companies reported a decline in their EBITDA margin on a Y-o-Y basis. Of late, the margin pressures have percolated to the FMCG and pharma sectors.
  • Earnings growth outlook subdued in near term: During FY2013 the earnings of the Sensex companies grew at about 6%, which was far lower than the initial consensus expectation. However, the recent improvement in the macro variables, supportive monetary policy and easing of commodity prices coupled with the expected cyclic uptick in the economy should result in a better earnings growth in FY2014. The downgrade/upgrade ratio has not undergone any major change but given the uncertainties around, the upgrades are still some time away. The Sensex is trading close to the mean valuation and therefore sluggishness in the earnings could cap the market's upside in the near term.

Click here to read report: Investor's Eye
 
 


Tuesday, June 04, 2013

Fw: Company Report - Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd - BUY

 
IIFL
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd: Prime pick – BUY
CMP Rs243, Target Rs283, Upside 16.5%
Sturdy business model; brisk growth over FY10-13
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd (MMFSL), a subsidiary of M&M is one of the leading vehicle financing NBFCs in India with an AUM of Rs267bn. It has one of the largest rural and semi-urban distribution franchises comprising 657 branches across 25 states and 4 UTs. Starting as a captive finance company for M&M products, the company has evolved into a diversified vehicle financier. MMFSL's localized business model and nimble loan processing lends it with a strong pricing power. During FY10-13, MMFSL witnessed robust AUM growth and sharp improvement in assets quality driven by rural upswing and structural factors such as network expansion, conservative LTV/loan tenor, robust credit appraisal/monitoring and strong collections engine.

Asset and earnings growth to slow but remain impressive
In view of deep macro slow down and waning momentum in rural consumption, moderation in MMFSL's disbursement growth is likely to accentuate in FY14 (~18% v/s ~22% in FY13) before recovering marginally in FY15. The deceleration in disbursements would translate into moderated though respectable asset growth of 23.5% pa over FY13-15. MMFSL's NIMs are favorably placed in a declining rate environment and therefore would remain firm despite increase in competition. Delinquencies could show an uptick and along with migration to 120-day NPL recognition should drive a material increase in credit cost in FY14/15. Consequently, earnings growth is estimated to decelerate to 18-20% over FY13-15.

Valuation is not cheap but can remain so; initiate coverage with BUY
MMFSL's premium valuation amongst NBFCs (2.7x 1-year roll fwd P/BV) is likely to sustain aided by better earnings growth and RoA delivery. Diversified business compared to other vehicle financiers and strong relationships with manufacturers lend higher predictability to MMFSL earnings growth. Key risks to our hypothesis would be a negative surprise in asset growth and asset quality. Initiate coverage on MMFSL with a BUY recommendation and 12-month target price of Rs283 which includes forecasted value of Rs12.5 for insurance broking business and Rs4 for rural financing business.
Click here for the detailed report on the same.
Warm Regards,
Amar Ambani