Sensex

Thursday, August 02, 2007

$$ DreamGains !! $$ Sachin Chavan Total Newsletter - 03rd Aug 2007

Sachin Chavan Daily Total Newsletter - Aug 03, 2007

 Tel: 022 - 25308355                           Email: mail@sachinchavan.com                     Mobile: 098203-16390
Website: www.sachinchavan.com
Please read the disclaimer at the end of this page. Read this newsletter only if you agree with it.

Learning 
Center:

  "Meditation is seeing God in yourself. Love is seeing God in the person next to you. Knowledge is seeing God everywhere" – Sri Sri Ravi Shankar

 

Part I: Market Overview & Nifty

Overview

No change in the corrective trend, though it is interspersed with bounces. The support of 4310 is holding and may provide another bounce in tune with the international markets. But, the significant weakness shown by Auto and Tech stocks is disconcerting.

Whipsaws are common in such a volatile market and its not easy to carry even short positions with a calm mind.

Nifty

 

Current Spot Rate

Supports

Resistances

Trend

 

S2

S1

R1

R2

MT

ST

4356

4100

4310

4540

4650

Bullish

Corr Dn

 

 

MT = Medium Term (3-12 weeks forecast); ST = Short Term (1-14 days forecast)

 

Out-performers (for upto next 3 months)

Under-Performers (for upto next 3 months)

Power, Media, Cap Goods

Tech Majors, Refining majors, Sugar

Out-performer' dooes not necessarily mean bullish, but that it can perform better than the overall market. 'Similarly, 'Under-performer' does not necessarily mean bearish, but that it can perform worse than the overall market.

Market Barometer (for short term only)

Based on the prevailing market trend, this section mentions to what extent it is preferable to hold long positions, short positions or remain univested for a short-term trader at this time.

  Short term position: 

Long (plus)

 

Short (minus)

 

Uninvested

 

Break-up:

Low

Low

Medium

Media Schedule:

Wed, Aug 08   11:00am-12:00pm:  'Sauda Apka', CNBC Awaaz

Wed, Aug 08   03:00pm-03:40pm:  '2.30 Factor', NDTV Profit

 

 

 

Click here for Details and Registration for Paid Daily Newsletter

 

Salient News (from public domain)

p

ACC July despatch up 15%.

p

Punj Lloyd arm bags Rs 666cr Singapore contract.

p

Birla Power plans acquisitions worth Rs 200 cr.

p

FM asks PSU banks not to hike rates.

p

Dr Reddy’s and Rheoscience commence the first phase III trial of Balaglitazone (DRF 2593).

p

GMR and Apollo Hospitals to set up medical centre at the new Hyderabad international airport.

p

Hindustan Zinc cuts zinc, lead prices.

p

Bajaj Auto plans new $245 m plant.

 

Part II: Equity and Derivative Break-outs (for 1-4 weeks)

 

c  Patel Engg completed target (483) amounting to 6.9% profit in 13 days. c.

c  Blue Star Inds completed target (264) amounting to 6.5% profit in 16 days. c.

c  Pantaloon derivative yielded 23% return on margin capital in 1 day. Equivalent profit per lot = Rs 12000. c.

c  BRFL stopped at 218, equivalent to loss of 12% c.

 

The following scrips have provided short-term breakouts at the points mentioned. Likely target/s and stoplosses commensurate with the breakout are also given below.  These are based only on technical analysis and are for informational purpose alone.

 

 

A breakout can be either bullish or bearish. Bullish breakouts would have targets above and stoplosses below and vice-versa for bearish breakouts. The mode tells whether the breakout is more suitable for equity (delivery-based) or derivatives trading.

 

 

Scrip

Break-out Point

Likely Targets

Stop
loss

Current Price

Targets Completed

Mode

Type

Date

Price

T1

T2

Yes Bank

Long

31-Jul

189

214

-

DCL<175

187

None

Equity

Deccan Chron.

Long

30-Jul

239

260

-

DCL<220

234

None

Equity

 

Updated levels are highlighted in yellow. All prices mentioned are NSE equity prices (even for derivative breakouts)

 

 

Part III: ASI Analysis of Major 50 Scrips

 

Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Table

 

Absolute Strength Index (ASI) is a technical indicator created by the analyst to indicate the bullishness/flatness/bearishness of any scrip. ASI values for 50 major scrips are updated in the table everyday.

Read below to understand ASI and what purpose it serves.

Description of ASI
ASI, the forward looking proprietary indicator, represents absolute
strength of a scrip. There are two ASI's:

Indicative Key to Use
ASI = 70-100 ->  Bullish
ASI = 60-70   ->  Mildly Bullish

- Medium term (3-12 weeks forecast) and
- Short term (1-14 days forecast),  plotted in the grid above

ASI = 40-60   ->  Flat
ASI = 30-40   ->  Mildly Bearish
ASI = 0-30     ->  Bearish

Note1: ASI < 30% does not mean 'oversold' but indicates weakness (fall expected ), and ASI > 70 does not mean 'overbought' but indicates strength (rise expected)

How to Use

The probability of success of a new Long (plus) position is better if MT trend is Bullish AND ST trend has just turned Bullish (underlined as Bullish). New long positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is overbought/ correcting down/bearish.

The probability of success of a new Short (minus) position is better if  MT trend is Bearish AND ST trend has just turned Bearish (underlined as Bearish ). New short positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is oversold/correcting up/bullish.

The rates mentioned below are 'equity' rates and not 'futures' rates.

 

Scrip

CMP

Medium Term (MT)

Short Term (ST)

 

 

ASI

Trend

Target

ASI

Trend

Target

 

 

Nifty

4356

90

Bullish

4650

11

Corr Dn

4310

 

 

ACC

980

60

Bullish

1180

23

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Bajaj Auto

2291

31

Flat

2100-2675

24

Flat

2240-2440

 

 

BPCL

306

24

Bearish

280

10

Bearish

300

 

 

Bharti Airtel

874

79

Bullish

960

16

Corr Dn

-

 

 

BHEL

1702

86

Bullish

1950

50

Flat

1575-1840

 

 

Century Text

716

86

Bullish

825

54

Flat

675-750

 

 

Cipla

186

26

Bearish

175

3

Ovrsold

-

 

 

Dabur

101

71

Bullish

115

29

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Dr Reddy's

632

36

Flat

550-810

4

Ovrsold

-

 

 

GAIL

328

90

Bullish

360

41

Flat

310-345

 

 

Grasim

2902

79

Bullish

3220

47

Flat

2800-3070

 

 

Guj Ambuja

130

69

Bullish

148

54

Flat

123-140

 

 

HCL Tech

298

40

Flat

285-360

7

Bearish

295

 

 

HDFC Bank

1152

71

Bullish

1280

36

Flat

1125-1250

 

 

HDFC

1945

83

Bullish

2250

39

Flat

1880-2020

 

 

Hero Honda

652

29

Bearish

615

13

Bearish

635

 

 

Hind Lever

202

43

Flat

175-240

44

Flat

190-210

 

 

Hind Petro

246

24

Bearish

235

7

Bearish

235

 

 

Hindalco

160

48

Flat

140-200

24

Bearish

154

 

 

I - Flex

2029

50

Flat

1925-2525

6

Ovrsold

-

 

 

ICICI Bank

901

74

Bullish

1015

19

Corr Dn

-

 

 

IDBI

106

76

Bullish

125

20

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Indian Hotels

135

60

Flat

130-160

10

Bearish

130

 

 

IPCL

357

93

Bullish

420

26

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Infosys

1899

45

Flat

1820-2280

16

Bearish

1850

 

 

ITC

168

48

Flat

145-195

81

Flat

163-174

 

 

Jet Airways

707

23

Bearish

600

6

Bearish

690

 

 

L&T

2489

86

Bullish

2800

46

Flat

2370-2700

 

 

M&M

676

31

Flat

590-860

6

Ovrsold

-

 

 

Maruti

832

40

Flat

720-990

53

Flat

800-850

 

 

Nalco

254

71

Bullish

300

9

Corr Dn

-

 

 

ONGC

877

57

Bullish

1040

10

Corr Dn

-

 

 

PNB

495

50

Flat

440-570

10

Ovrsold

-

 

 

Ranbaxy

373

36

Bearish

330

64

Corr Up

-

 

 

Rel. Capital

1119

93

Bullish

1340

26

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Rel. Energy

753

79

Bullish

860

49

Flat

700-790

 

 

Reliance Ind

1801

83

Bullish

1980

30

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Satyam

466

74

Bullish

530

10

Corr Dn

-

 

 

SCI

192

81

Bullish

230

9

Corr Dn

-

 

 

SBI

1593

98

Bullish

1840

61

Flat

1510-1630

 

 

Steel Authority

144

81

Bullish

170

24

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Tata Chem

250

74

Bullish

280

29

Flat

245-270

 

 

Tata Steel

640

83

Bullish

740

14

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Tata Motors

652

26

Flat

635-760

3

Ovrsold

-

 

 

Tata Power

696

90

Bullish

840

49

Flat

675-735

 

 

TCS

1095

40

Flat

1050-1250

7

Bearish

1060

 

 

VSNL

442

74

Bullish

495

6

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Wipro

462

40

Flat

435-630

3

Ovrsold

-

 

 

Zee Telefilms

310

90

Bullish

345

16

Corr Dn

-

 

\

 Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Plot

Click here to learn the stock codes used in the plot below.

Note: Scrip name in Red Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has reduced substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Green Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has increased substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Black Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has remained same

Disclosure:

The analyst holds long term investments in various Reliance group companies (including Reliance Industries, Reliance Capital, Reliance Energy, Reliance Natural Resources and Reliance Communications).

The analyst has business relations with Reliance Money, a Reliance Capital company. The analyst and his dependents have no positions in other stocks/futures.

Disclaimer:

This newsletter and the opinions/break-outs mentioned therein are for informational purpose only and not a recommendation or an offer or solicitation of an offer to any person with respect to the purchase or sale of the stocks/futures discussed in this report.

I, Sachin Chavan (author), do not accept any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipient &  reader of this material should rely on their own investigations and take professional advice. Subscribers, recipients and readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their actions and shall not hold the Author liable for any investment decisions/ actions or any other action (including abstaining from action) based on the Content provided. Information is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The information provided is based on the theory of Technical Analysis. All levels mentioned, including break-out, target, stoploss are only informative. Trading and investment in stock market is risky and volatile.

This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior
permission from the author.
 - Sachin Chavan

 

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BigGains !!
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