$$ DreamGains !! $$ Sachin Chavan Total Newsletter - 03rd Aug 2007

Sachin Chavan Daily Total Newsletter - Aug 03, 2007
Tel: 022 - 25308355                           Email: mail@sachinchavan.com                     Mobile: 098203-16390 Website: www.sachinchavan.com Please read the disclaimer at the end of this page. Read this newsletter only if you agree with it.
	Learning  Center:	"Meditation is seeing God in yourself. Love is seeing God in the person next to you. Knowledge is seeing God everywhere" – Sri Sri Ravi Shankar
Part I: Market Overview & Nifty
	Overview
	No change in the corrective trend, though it is interspersed with bounces. The support of 4310 is holding and may provide another bounce in tune with the international markets. But, the significant weakness shown by Auto and Tech stocks is disconcerting.
	Whipsaws are common in such a volatile market and its not easy to carry even short positions with a calm mind.
	Nifty
	Current Spot Rate	Supports		Resistances		Trend
		S2	S1	R1	R2	MT	ST
	4356	4100	4310	4540	4650	Bullish	Corr Dn
	MT = Medium Term (3-12 weeks forecast); ST = Short Term (1-14 days forecast)
	Out-performers (for upto next 3 months)						Under-Performers (for upto next 3 months)
	Power, Media, Cap Goods						Tech Majors, Refining majors, Sugar
	Out-performer' dooes not necessarily mean bullish, but that it can perform better than the overall market. 'Similarly, 'Under-performer' does not necessarily mean bearish, but that it can perform worse than the overall market.
	Market Barometer (for short term only)
	Based on the prevailing market trend, this section mentions to what extent it is preferable to hold long positions, short positions or remain univested for a short-term trader at this time.
	Short term position:		Long (plus)			Short (minus)			Uninvested
	Break-up:		Low			Low			Medium
Media Schedule:		Wed, Aug 08   11:00am-12:00pm:  'Sauda Apka', CNBC Awaaz
		Wed, Aug 08   03:00pm-03:40pm:  '2.30 Factor', NDTV Profit
	Click here for Details and Registration for Paid Daily Newsletter
	Salient News (from public domain)
p	ACC July despatch up 15%.
p	Punj Lloyd arm bags Rs 666cr Singapore contract.
p	Birla Power plans acquisitions worth Rs 200 cr.
p	FM asks PSU banks not to hike rates.
p	Dr Reddy’s and Rheoscience commence the first phase III trial of Balaglitazone (DRF 2593).
p	GMR and Apollo Hospitals to set up medical centre at the new Hyderabad international airport.
p	Hindustan Zinc cuts zinc, lead prices.
p	Bajaj Auto plans new $245 m plant.
Part II: Equity and Derivative Break-outs (for 1-4 weeks)
	c  Patel Engg completed target (483) amounting to 6.9% profit in 13 days. c.
	c  Blue Star Inds completed target (264) amounting to 6.5% profit in 16 days. c.
	c  Pantaloon derivative yielded 23% return on margin capital in 1 day. Equivalent profit per lot = Rs 12000. c.
	c  BRFL stopped at 218, equivalent to loss of 12% c.
	The following scrips have provided short-term breakouts at the points mentioned. Likely target/s and stoplosses commensurate with the breakout are also given below.  These are based only on technical analysis and are for informational purpose alone.
	A breakout can be either bullish or bearish. Bullish breakouts would have targets above and stoplosses below and vice-versa for bearish breakouts. The mode tells whether the breakout is more suitable for equity (delivery-based) or derivatives trading.
	Scrip	Break-out Point			Likely Targets		Stop loss	Current Price	Targets Completed		Mode
		Type	Date	Price	T1	T2
	Yes Bank	Long	31-Jul	189	214	-	DCL<175	187	None		Equity
	Deccan Chron.	Long	30-Jul	239	260	-	DCL<220	234	None		Equity
	Updated levels are highlighted in yellow. All prices mentioned are NSE equity prices (even for derivative breakouts)
Part III: ASI Analysis of Major 50 Scrips
	Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Table
	Absolute Strength Index (ASI) is a technical indicator created by the analyst to indicate the bullishness/flatness/bearishness of any scrip. ASI values for 50 major scrips are updated in the table everyday.
	Read below to understand ASI and what purpose it serves.
	Description of ASI ASI, the forward looking proprietary indicator, represents absolute strength of a scrip. There are two ASI's:							Indicative Key to Use ASI = 70-100 ->  Bullish ASI = 60-70   ->  Mildly Bullish
	- Medium term (3-12 weeks forecast) and - Short term (1-14 days forecast),  plotted in the grid above							ASI = 40-60   ->  Flat ASI = 30-40   ->  Mildly Bearish ASI = 0-30     ->  Bearish
	Note1: ASI < 30% does not mean 'oversold' but indicates weakness (fall expected ), and ASI > 70 does not mean 'overbought' but indicates strength (rise expected)
	How to Use
	The probability of success of a new Long (plus) position is better if MT trend is Bullish AND ST trend has just turned Bullish (underlined as Bullish). New long positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is overbought/ correcting down/bearish.
	The probability of success of a new Short (minus) position is better if  MT trend is Bearish AND ST trend has just turned Bearish (underlined as Bearish ). New short positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is oversold/correcting up/bullish.
	The rates mentioned below are 'equity' rates and not 'futures' rates.
	Scrip	CMP	Medium Term (MT)				Short Term (ST)
			ASI	Trend	Target		ASI	Trend	Target
	Nifty	4356	90	Bullish	4650		11	Corr Dn	4310
	ACC	980	60	Bullish	1180		23	Corr Dn	-
	Bajaj Auto	2291	31	Flat	2100-2675		24	Flat	2240-2440
	BPCL	306	24	Bearish	280		10	Bearish	300
	Bharti Airtel	874	79	Bullish	960		16	Corr Dn	-
	BHEL	1702	86	Bullish	1950		50	Flat	1575-1840
	Century Text	716	86	Bullish	825		54	Flat	675-750
	Cipla	186	26	Bearish	175		3	Ovrsold	-
	Dabur	101	71	Bullish	115		29	Corr Dn	-
	Dr Reddy's	632	36	Flat	550-810		4	Ovrsold	-
	GAIL	328	90	Bullish	360		41	Flat	310-345
	Grasim	2902	79	Bullish	3220		47	Flat	2800-3070
	Guj Ambuja	130	69	Bullish	148		54	Flat	123-140
	HCL Tech	298	40	Flat	285-360		7	Bearish	295
	HDFC Bank	1152	71	Bullish	1280		36	Flat	1125-1250
	HDFC	1945	83	Bullish	2250		39	Flat	1880-2020
	Hero Honda	652	29	Bearish	615		13	Bearish	635
	Hind Lever	202	43	Flat	175-240		44	Flat	190-210
	Hind Petro	246	24	Bearish	235		7	Bearish	235
	Hindalco	160	48	Flat	140-200		24	Bearish	154
	I - Flex	2029	50	Flat	1925-2525		6	Ovrsold	-
	ICICI Bank	901	74	Bullish	1015		19	Corr Dn	-
	IDBI	106	76	Bullish	125		20	Corr Dn	-
	Indian Hotels	135	60	Flat	130-160		10	Bearish	130
	IPCL	357	93	Bullish	420		26	Corr Dn	-
	Infosys	1899	45	Flat	1820-2280		16	Bearish	1850
	ITC	168	48	Flat	145-195		81	Flat	163-174
	Jet Airways	707	23	Bearish	600		6	Bearish	690
	L&T	2489	86	Bullish	2800		46	Flat	2370-2700
	M&M	676	31	Flat	590-860		6	Ovrsold	-
	Maruti	832	40	Flat	720-990		53	Flat	800-850
	Nalco	254	71	Bullish	300		9	Corr Dn	-
	ONGC	877	57	Bullish	1040		10	Corr Dn	-
	PNB	495	50	Flat	440-570		10	Ovrsold	-
	Ranbaxy	373	36	Bearish	330		64	Corr Up	-
	Rel. Capital	1119	93	Bullish	1340		26	Corr Dn	-
	Rel. Energy	753	79	Bullish	860		49	Flat	700-790
	Reliance Ind	1801	83	Bullish	1980		30	Corr Dn	-
	Satyam	466	74	Bullish	530		10	Corr Dn	-
	SCI	192	81	Bullish	230		9	Corr Dn	-
	SBI	1593	98	Bullish	1840		61	Flat	1510-1630
	Steel Authority	144	81	Bullish	170		24	Corr Dn	-
	Tata Chem	250	74	Bullish	280		29	Flat	245-270
	Tata Steel	640	83	Bullish	740		14	Corr Dn	-
	Tata Motors	652	26	Flat	635-760		3	Ovrsold	-
	Tata Power	696	90	Bullish	840		49	Flat	675-735
	TCS	1095	40	Flat	1050-1250		7	Bearish	1060
	VSNL	442	74	Bullish	495		6	Corr Dn	-
	Wipro	462	40	Flat	435-630		3	Ovrsold	-
	Zee Telefilms	310	90	Bullish	345		16	Corr Dn	-
\
	Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Plot
	Click here to learn the stock codes used in the plot below.
	Note: Scrip name in Red Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has reduced substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Green Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has increased substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Black Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has remained same
Disclosure:
The analyst holds long term investments in various Reliance group companies (including Reliance Industries, Reliance Capital, Reliance Energy, Reliance Natural Resources and Reliance Communications).
The analyst has business relations with Reliance Money, a Reliance Capital company. The analyst and his dependents have no positions in other stocks/futures.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter and the opinions/break-outs mentioned therein are for informational purpose only and not a recommendation or an offer or solicitation of an offer to any person with respect to the purchase or sale of the stocks/futures discussed in this report. I, Sachin Chavan (author), do not accept any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipient &  reader of this material should rely on their own investigations and take professional advice. Subscribers, recipients and readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their actions and shall not hold the Author liable for any investment decisions/ actions or any other action (including abstaining from action) based on the Content provided. Information is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The information provided is based on the theory of Technical Analysis. All levels mentioned, including break-out, target, stoploss are only informative. Trading and investment in stock market is risky and volatile. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from the author.  - Sachin Chavan

 

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