$$ DreamGains !! $$ Sachin Chavan Total Newsletter - 24th July 2007

Sachin Chavan Daily Total Newsletter - Jul 24, 2007
Tel: 022 - 25308355                           Email: mail@sachinchavan.com                     Mobile: 098203-16390 Website: www.sachinchavan.com Please read the disclaimer at the end of this page. Read this newsletter only if you agree with it.
	Learning  Center:	"The mind can be calmed through the breath"  – Sri Sri Ravi Shankar, The Way Back Home
Part I: Market Overview & Nifty
	Overview
	The rally keeps gaining strength as the march towards medium term target of 4900 continues. There are days on which the market does an intra-day adjustment/correction of 1-2% making way for further buying later. Clearly it’s a purple patch, but it may not be right to throw all caution to wind and overleverage.
	4450 has established as a new support for Nifty.
	Nifty
	Current Spot Rate	Supports		Resistances		Trend
		S2	S1	R1	R2	MT	ST
	4619	4380	4450	4770	4900	Bullish	Bullish
	MT = Medium Term (3-12 weeks forecast); ST = Short Term (1-14 days forecast)
	Out-performers (for upto next 3 months)						Under-Performers (for upto next 3 months)
	Media, Cap Goods, Banks, Power, Metals						FMCG, Automobile, Tech Majors
	Out-performer' dooes not necessarily mean bullish, but that it can perform better than the overall market. 'Similarly, 'Under-performer' does not necessarily mean bearish, but that it can perform worse than the overall market.
	Market Barometer (for short term only)
	Based on the prevailing market trend, this section mentions to what extent it is preferable to hold long positions, short positions or remain univested for a short-term trader at this time.
	Short term position:		Long (plus)			Short (minus)			Uninvested
	Break-up:		Med			None			Med
Media Schedule:		Wed, Jul 18   11:00am-12:00pm:  'Sauda Apka', CNBC Awaaz
		Wed, Jul 18   09:40am-10:30am:  Zee Business
		Wed, Jul 18   03:00pm-03:40pm:  '2.30 Factor', NDTV Profit
	Click here for Details and Registration for Paid Daily Newsletter
	Salient News (from public domain)
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Part II: Equity and Derivative Break-outs (for 1-4 weeks)
	c  Cosmo Films completed target (106) amounting to 10.4% profit in 5 days. c.
	c  Pantaloon derivative yielded 23% return on margin capital in 1 day. Equivalent profit per lot = Rs 12000. c.
	c  BRFL stopped at 218, equivalent to loss of 12% c.
	The following scrips have provided short-term breakouts at the points mentioned. Likely target/s and stoplosses commensurate with the breakout are also given below.  These are based only on technical analysis and are for informational purpose alone.
	A breakout can be either bullish or bearish. Bullish breakouts would have targets above and stoplosses below and vice-versa for bearish breakouts. The mode tells whether the breakout is more suitable for equity (delivery-based) or derivatives trading.
	Scrip	Break-out Point			Likely Targets		Stop loss	Current Price	Targets Completed		Mode
		Type	Date	Price	T1	T2
	Patel Engg	Bullish	12-Jul	452	495	-	DCL<425	473	None		Equity
	Blue Star Inds.	Bullish	09-Jul	248	274	-	DCL<235	256	None		Equity
	Updated levels are highlighted in yellow. All prices mentioned are NSE equity prices (even for derivative breakouts)
Part III: ASI Analysis of Major 50 Scrips
	Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Table
	Absolute Strength Index (ASI) is a technical indicator created by the analyst to indicate the bullishness/flatness/bearishness of any scrip. ASI values for 50 major scrips are updated in the table everyday.
	Read below to understand ASI and what purpose it serves.
	Description of ASI ASI, the forward looking proprietary indicator, represents absolute strength of a scrip. There are two ASI's:							Indicative Key to Use ASI = 70-100 ->  Bullish ASI = 60-70   ->  Mildly Bullish
	- Medium term (3-12 weeks forecast) and - Short term (1-14 days forecast),  plotted in the grid above							ASI = 40-60   ->  Flat ASI = 30-40   ->  Mildly Bearish ASI = 0-30     ->  Bearish
	Note1: ASI < 30% does not mean 'oversold' but indicates weakness (fall expected ), and ASI > 70 does not mean 'overbought' but indicates strength (rise expected)
	How to Use
	The probability of success of a new Long (plus) position is better if MT trend is Bullish AND ST trend has just turned Bullish (underlined as Bullish). New long positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is overbought/ correcting down/bearish.
	The probability of success of a new Short (minus) position is better if  MT trend is Bearish AND ST trend has just turned Bearish (underlined as Bearish ). New short positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is oversold/correcting up/bullish.
	The rates mentioned below are 'equity' rates and not 'futures' rates.
	Scrip	CMP	Medium Term (MT)				Short Term (ST)
			ASI	Trend	Target		ASI	Trend	Target
	Nifty	4619	98	Bullish	4900		93	Bullish	4770
	ACC	1135	74	Bullish	1180		79	Ovrbot	-
	Bajaj Auto	2425	36	Flat	2100-2675		86	Bullish	2440
	BPCL	318	21	Bearish	280		10	Bearish	295
	Bharti Airtel	941	95	Bullish	960		97	Bullish	960
	BHEL	1766	98	Bullish	1800		87	Ovrbot	-
	Century Text	760	88	Bullish	825		67	Bullish	790
	Cipla	192	31	Flat	175-260		7	Bearish	180
	Dabur	100	64	Bullish	115		29	Corr Dn	-
	Dr Reddy's	668	48	Flat	550-810		27	Flat	650-690
	GAIL	339	90	Bullish	360		100	Bullish	360
	Grasim	3032	83	Bullish	3220		100	Ovrbot	-
	Guj Ambuja	135	74	Bullish	148		56	Flat	130-140
	HCL Tech	321	62	Bullish	355		14	Corr Dn	-
	HDFC Bank	1230	88	Bullish	1280		91	Bullish	1240
	HDFC	1992	90	Bullish	2250		70	Flat	1885-2025
	Hero Honda	709	33	Bearish	615		79	Corr Up	-
	Hind Lever	205	43	Flat	175-240		74	Bullish	215
	Hind Petro	252	21	Bearish	235		7	Bearish	235
	Hindalco	185	71	Bullish	210		86	Ovrbot	-
	I - Flex	2363	71	Bullish	2660		9	Corr Dn	-
	ICICI Bank	970	98	Bullish	1015		39	Flat	950-1000
	IDBI	109	81	Bullish	130		31	Corr Dn	-
	Indian Hotels	142	64	Flat	130-160		16	Bearish	140
	IPCL	379	100	Bullish	420		100	Ovrbot	-
	Infosys	1948	57	Flat	1820-2280		33	Flat	1900-2030
	ITC	154	31	Bearish	135		20	Flat	150-158
	Jet Airways	739	25	Flat	700-950		10	Bearish	725
	L&T	2625	98	Bullish	2800		83	Bullish	2800
	M&M	826	57	Flat	590-860		79	Bullish	840
	Maruti	830	43	Flat	720-860		83	Bullish	850
	Nalco	290	86	Bullish	330		51	Flat	280-300
	ONGC	909	67	Bullish	1040		51	Flat	865-930
	PNB	566	79	Bullish	625		59	Flat	550-590
	Ranbaxy	351	26	Bearish	330		23	Flat	340-375
	Rel. Capital	1215	98	Bullish	1340		91	Ovrbot	-
	Rel. Energy	715	81	Bullish	860		87	Bullish	740
	Reliance Ind	1909	98	Bullish	1980		100	Ovrbot	-
	Satyam	491	88	Bullish	530		71	Flat	460-500
	SCI	220	95	Bullish	230		79	Ovrbot	-
	SBI	1585	100	Bullish	1840		56	Flat	1530-1640
	Steel Authority	157	100	Bullish	170		79	Ovrbot	-
	Tata Chem	266	81	Bullish	280		100	Bullish	280
	Tata Steel	721	86	Bullish	740		96	Bullish	740
	Tata Motors	767	48	Flat	660-920		61	Flat	740-785
	Tata Power	669	86	Bullish	710		44	Flat	650-700
	TCS	1191	45	Flat	1050-1250		76	Flat	1160-1200
	VSNL	484	93	Bullish	525		51	Flat	465-500
	Wipro	509	40	Flat	435-630		36	Bearish	480
	Zee Telefilms	339	100	Bullish	350		91	Bullish	350
\
	Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Plot
	Click here to learn the stock codes used in the plot below.
	Note: Scrip name in Red Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has reduced substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Green Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has increased substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Black Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has remained same
Disclosure:
The analyst holds long term investments in various Reliance group companies (including Reliance Industries, Reliance Capital, Reliance Energy, Reliance Natural Resources and Reliance Communications).
The analyst has business relations with Reliance Money, a Reliance Capital company. The analyst and his dependents have no positions in other stocks/futures.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter and the opinions/break-outs mentioned therein are for informational purpose only and not a recommendation or an offer or solicitation of an offer to any person with respect to the purchase or sale of the stocks/futures discussed in this report. I, Sachin Chavan (author), do not accept any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipient &  reader of this material should rely on their own investigations and take professional advice. Subscribers, recipients and readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their actions and shall not hold the Author liable for any investment decisions/ actions or any other action (including abstaining from action) based on the Content provided. Information is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The information provided is based on the theory of Technical Analysis. All levels mentioned, including break-out, target, stoploss are only informative. Trading and investment in stock market is risky and volatile. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from the author.  - Sachin Chavan

 

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