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Sensex
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Sunday, March 07, 2010
[sharetrading] Re: Business Line Sunday Edition 07-Mar-2010
Can you please tell us what can we download from this link
SM
--- In sharetrading@
>
> Here is the download link.
> http://rapidshare.
> Cheers.
>
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Please use your discretion before acting on the ideas expressed in the group.
Happy Trading,
United we grow!!!
Happy Trading,
United we grow!!!
.
__,_._,___
[Ways-2gain] ValueGuide - Sharekhan [1 Attachment]
[Attachment(s) from samir shah included below]
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Management lies in dropping the last alphabet: manage – men. still better, drop one more alphabet: manage – me.
Samir Kumar Shah.
9830405060
ValueGuide - Sharekhan
Sharekhan ValueGuide
[For March 2010]Sharekhan
www.sharekhan.com < STRONG>
Investment Insights Our regular features on investments and equity picks for our investors. FROM SHAREKHAN'S DESK
Waiting to break freeAfter shooting up by over 66% in the first half of FY2010 on the back of global economic revival, improving health of the domestic economy, strong first quarter results of India Inc (and the resulting earnings upgrades) and most importantly, abundant liquidity, the Indian market has been stuck in a range for the past four to five months. Reason? For one, it has been bogged down by its own rich valuations. Then, there have been a host of domestic and global issues that have been acting as a drag on the market.
MARKET OUTLOOK
Building a base
- In line with our expectation, the markets have managed to stay in a narrow range, hovering around 5000 levels (+/-5%) on Nifty, for the past few months. It withstood the global tremors emerging out of sovereign debt crisis in eastern Europe and domestic issues such as rising inflation and sedate earnings upgrades since October 2009. India?s recent outperformance compared to some of the other emerging markets is driven by the relatively better economic revival that is backed by sustainable domestic consumption story.
- The Union Budget 2010-11 has also cheered the market sentiments, as the finance minister managed to strike a fine balance between fiscal consolidation and growth stimulus. Moreover, the Union Budget has also emphasised on the key themes of investment in infrastructure development (increase in plan outlays), growth in consumption demand (higher tax slabs and rural programs) and divestment.
- Though the market is moving towards the higher-end of its multi-month trading range, we believe it might not be ready to break free yet. The lack of earnings upgrades and expected monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its forthcoming policy review meet in April 2010 would act as a drag on the market. Moreover, in the near-term, there are technical issues such as withdrawal of liquidity due to advance tax payments and clean up of accounts prior to the end of the fiscal year. Globally, the economic revival in the US and relatively weaker environment in Europe could further strengthen the US dollar, resulting in some pressure on foreign inflows in the coming months.
- Given the lack of any re-rating triggers in the near-term, we maintain our thesis that the markets are likely to remain range-bound and consolidate during the first half of 2010. As against this, the second half should see the focus of investors gradually turning away from the near-term issues to the long-term potential of the Indian economy and the strong corporate earnings in FY2011 and beyond. Moreover, with passage of time the valuations would turn more compelling as the street rolls over discounting to FY2012 earnings estimates.
- Consequently, we maintain our ?buy on dips? stance and view any significant correction or knee-jerk reaction to global events as an opportunity to accumulate fundamentally-
strong stocks at lower levels for reasonably handsome returns over the next 12-18 months.
SHAREKHAN TOP PICKS
- Sharekhan top picks
SHAREKHAN BUDGET SPECIAL
Union Budget 2010-11: Managing expectations
Despite the backdrop of a recovering economy, high fiscal deficit and rising inflation, the Union Budget 2010-11 has managed to more than meet the market expectations. Perhaps the expectations weren?t very high anyway. Not to take away the credit from the finance minister, the market sentiments are boosted by the fact that the finance minister has addressed the key issue of containing fiscal slippage and has outlined a clear roadmap for fiscal consolidation for the next three years. This essentially allays fears of crowding out of bank credit for private sector and the lower supply of government paper eases pressure on bond yields.
While the fiscal deficit target of 5.5% for FY2011 seems to be achievable, a lot would depend on the government?s ability to contain growth in expenditure (subsidies etc) and successful execution of divestment plans. Meanwhile, the budgeted 18% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in gross tax receipts seems achievable given the improving economic conditions.
RAILWAY BUDGET SPECIAL
Railway Budget 2010-11
The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) presented its Railway Budget in the parliament today. The Railway Budget turned to be a mix of reformist in nature with a social face as the new railway minister decided to leave freight rates and fares unchanged. The ministry emphasised the need to enhance the railway infrastructure in the current fiscal. We present below the highlights of the Railway Budget.
STOCK UPDATE
- Aditya Birla Nuvo: Life insurance and AUM businesses outperform
- Axis Bank: Firmly footed
- Bajaj Auto: Unstoppable growth
- Balrampur Chini Mills: Results below estimates, strong earnings ahead
- Bharat Electronics: Price target revised to Rs2,144
- Bharti Airtel: Bharti-Zain deal: Potential to be long term positive
- Corporation Bank: Q3 performance beats estimates
- Glenmark Pharmaceuticals: Price target revised to Rs325
- Greaves Cotton: Q3 numbers better than expected on higher margins
- ISMT: Higher power cost impacts Q3 results
- ITC: Smokers to pay more
- Jaiprakash Associates: Upgraded to Buy
- Lupin: Price target revised to Rs1,760
- Max India: On track
- Mold-Tek Technologies: Price target revised to Rs99
- Opto Circuits India: Price target revised to Rs250
- Patels Airtemp India: Price target revised to Rs101
- Pratibha Industries: Fair Q3; better times ahead
- Seamec: Downgraded to Hold
- Subros: Price target revised to Rs58
- Sun Pharmaceutical Industries: Price target revised to Rs1,616
- Tata Chemicals: Price target revised to Rs351
- Tata Tea: Price target revised to Rs1,006
- Thermax: Settles pending legal dispute with Purolite
- Tourism Finance Corporation of India: Price target revised to Rs34
- Unity Infraprojects: Price target revised to Rs680
SHAREKHAN SPECIAL
- Monthly economy review
- Q3FY2010 earnings review
MUTUAL GAINS
Sharekhan?s top equity fund picks
SECTOR UPDATE
Fertiliser: Policy reforms: Much awaited step towards fertiliser decontrol
VIEWPOINT
Koutons Retail India: New product and category launches to boost revenue
Earnings Guide
Trader's Techniques Get in-depth technical research and hot opportunities in the equities, derivatives and commodities markets.
- Sensex: Mystique Five But Hysteria Underway
- Maize: In a bearish phase
- Lead: Dark clouds on different time frames
- Derivative View
Commodities Corner Get view on the buzzing commodities from our fundamental research team.
- Rabi crops
Premier Ideas Sift through the collection of Premier Ideas to evaluate your investment and trading strategies.
- Smart Trades Ideas
- Derivatives Ideas
- Nifty Ideas
Regards,
The Sharekhan Research Team
Management lies in dropping the last alphabet: manage – men. still better, drop one more alphabet: manage – me.
Samir Kumar Shah.
9830405060
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Attachment(s) from samir shah
1 of 1 File(s)
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[sharetrading] Weely technical view for w.e. 12th march
Technical Analyst, Hitendra Vasudeo:
The Sensex posted a strong positive candle and removed the sustainability issue that was hovering in our minds. A trading breakout and close above the previous week's high of 16669 was witnessed that will enable the Sensex to test the range of 17276-17790. And when the Sensex hits the higher range once again, the sustainability issue crop up.
Last week, the Sensex opened at 16438.45 and maintained the same as the low for the week. Further, it moved higher to 17097.71 and closed at 16994.49 and thereby showed a net rise of 564 points on a week-to-week basis.
Support will be at 16843-16429-
The market reacted favourably to the Budget and the positive sentiment was visible among the investing and trading community in the post budget week. But equally important henceforth will be the low of the budget week, which is at 16167 and can be rounded off to 16100.
Trading movement and stock wise momentum was witnessed last week. The same may continue provided the supports are held well. Volatility from the resistance level cannot be ruled out.
The Broad Market
BSE Small Cap did not violate the support of 7926. Therefore, support continues at 7926. Resistance is at 8690 and 9120. Resistance of 8690 will be tested. A breakout above 9120 can trigger the rally in large caps as well.
BSE Mid Cap strength was better than BSE Small Cap. The support of 6276 was not violated. Resistance will be between of 6870-7153 and a breakout above 7153 can trigger a rally.
Conclusion
Breakout and close above 17800 can only make the Sensex bullish from hereon and trap the bears. If the breakout and close above 17800 is not witnessed then a lower top probability is at current level or on rise to 17253 or 17509.
Strategy for the week
Exit long on rise to 17253 and 17509 as the opportunity arises. Keep stop loss of 16000 to hold long positions. Add long positions on rise and close above 17800.
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Please use your discretion before acting on the ideas expressed in the group.
Happy Trading,
United we grow!!!
Happy Trading,
United we grow!!!
.
__,_._,___
[Ways-2gain] mkts: Banking_after_the_crisis - McKinsey Report [1 Attachment]
[Attachment(s) from Sameer Gogri included below]
Banks will sell EUR 3tn of non-core assets at below par prices over the
next two years to sturdier rivals or new entrants to the market, reports
Financial News Online, citing research by McKinsey. The research suggests
the banking industry faces years of uncertain returns, lower margins and
capital constraints. It said: "Thousands of branches and dozens of other
assets, such as structured finance businesses, are likely to be sold."
Banks which generate more than 60% of revenues from emerging markets are
likely to be the winners, according to McKinsey. Under one scenario run by
McKinsey – predicated on a prolonged global recession, slow growth and
moderate regulation – the "emerging market giants" are likely to enjoy a
return on equity in 2014 of about 18%. By contrast, US and European
universal banks would only make 15% RoE under the same conditions – well
down from their 20% pre-crisis levels. Overall, McKinsey envisages six
fundamental changes to the banking industry over the medium term:
Banking returns will be highly uncertain.
The range in banks' performance will widen, with significant variability
among banks with similar business models.
Margins will compress and return to their historical norms.
Banks in emerging markets will create most of the value in the industry.
Capital is likely to remain scarce.
Funding issues will persist for many banks, with scarcity and cost taking
a heavy toll on profits.
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Attachment(s) from Sameer Gogri
1 of 1 File(s)
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Bonus Issues, Stock Splits, Rights Issues, IPO Updates: FPO Analysis - NMDC - Invest below Rs 300
Bonus Issues, Stock Splits, Rights Issues, IPO Updates: FPO Analysis - NMDC - Invest below Rs 300 |
- FPO Analysis - NMDC - Invest below Rs 300
- IPO Analysis - Invest in DQ Entertainment (International)
- Buy Calls - GSK Consumer
| FPO Analysis - NMDC - Invest below Rs 300 Posted: 07 Mar 2010 05:00 PM PST NMDC plans to offer for sale 33.2 crore shares of face value of Re 1 in it’s FPO, at a price band to be announced on 9th March 2010. This represents 8.38 per cent of the outstanding shares of the company. NMDC FPO is open from 10th March to 12th March. You should consider bidding in [...] Read More...
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| IPO Analysis - Invest in DQ Entertainment (International) Posted: 07 Mar 2010 04:56 PM PST DQ Entertainment IPO is open from March 8-10. SBI Capital Markets is the book-running lead manager to the issue. DQ Entertainment is offering over 16 million shares through it’s IPO to raise Rs 128 crore. It plans to utilise the proceeds towards investment in co-production agreements (Rs 55 crore) and development of office infrastructure at an [...] Read More...
|
| Posted: 07 Mar 2010 04:39 PM PST Investors seeking a defensive option for their portfolio can consider adding the GlaxoSmithkline Consumer Healthcare (GSK Consumer) stock. The current market price of Rs 1,496 discounts estimated 2011 earnings by about 18 times (Nestle and Dabur India trade at 24-26 times). The company closed Calendar 2009 with sales growth of 25 per cent, managed almost evenly [...] Read More...
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[sharetrading] Anagram's Daily Call
Anagram's Daily Call : 8th March 2010
VIEWPOINT: STAY LONG; BOOK PROFIT AROUND 5200 IN NIFTY
Nifty surged 3.4% last week, the highest weekly gain since the week ending 24th December, 2009.Technical outlook on the market still remains bullish. Talking about the possible targets on the higher side the trend line, adjoining tops of October and December 2009, that acted as resistance and later on switched the role as support, will now work as a resistance around 5180. The trend line adjoining tops of 12th and 18th Jan presents resistance around 5240. Therefore, 5180-5240 is likely to act as a strong resistance zone going forward. The advice is to Stay long, buy every dip and book profit around 5200. 5049, the low made on Thursday will act as an immediate support, followed by a stronger one at 4930, the previous top.
OPEN POSITION CALLS | |||||||||
| Reco Date | STOCK | RECO PRICE | RECOMMENDATION | SL | TARGET | TIME FRAME | CMP | % Gain/ Loss on CMP | Comments |
| 05/01/2010 | ELECTRO STL | 51.70 | BUY 50% AT CMP AND 50% AROUND 47 | 42 | 67,75 | 2-3 MONTHS | 48.65 | -1.42 | Call Open |
| 16/01/2010 | BEML | 1185.00 | BUY 50% AT CMP AND 50% AROUND 1100 | 985 | 1525 | 2-3 MONTHS | 1063.3 | -6.94 | Call Open |
| 18/01/2010 | J B CHM | 66.50 | BUY 50% AT CMP AND 50% AROUND 61 | 55 | 83 | 2-3 MONTHS | 67.50 | 5.88 | Call Open |
| 29/01/2010 | GARW POLY | 53.55 | ACCUMULATE BETWEEN 53.55-51 | 46 | 67 | 1 Month | 55.7 | 4.01 | BOOK PROFIT |
| 02/03/2010 | USHA MARTIN | 91.9 | ACCUMULATE BETWEEN 92-91 | 86.4 | 98 | 3-4 DAYS | 91.15 | -0.82 | Call Open |
| 03/03/2010 | TINPLATE | 81.7 | ACCUMULATE BETWEEN 81.75-81 | 77.1 | 88.4 | 2-3 DAYS | 81.9 | 0.24 | Hit RSL |
| 04/03/2010 | REL COM | 3.3 | MARCH 170 CALL | 2.3 | 5.4 | 2-3 DAYS | 3.8 | | Hit RSL |
| 05/01/2010 | ELECTRO STL | 51.70 | BUY 50% AT CMP AND 50% AROUND 47 | 42 | 67,75 | 2-3 MONTHS | 48.65 | -1.42 | Call Open |
To Read our Morning Call, Please CLICK HERE
Regards,
Anagram Research
__._,_.___
Please use your discretion before acting on the ideas expressed in the group.
Happy Trading,
United we grow!!!
Happy Trading,
United we grow!!!
.
__,_._,___
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