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Saturday, October 13, 2007

$$ DreamGains !! $$ Friday Telefolio : KCP : Buy

 

KCP

Prolific growth

The company is doing exceedingly well due to strong growth in its engineering and cement divisions. It is also firming up its plans to develop its surplus land in three cities

Buy

KCP

BSE Code

590066

NSE Code

KCP

Bloomberg

NA

Reuter

NA

52-week High/Low

Rs 425 / Rs 186

Current Price

Rs 358 (as on 12th October 2007)

KCP is a south-based diversified company with interest in cement, engineering and power.

Strong financial growth continues

On standalone basis, for the quarter ended June 2007 KCP reported 42% growth in net sales to Rs 74.34 crore due to sharp growth in revenues from cement business. OPM improved by 590 basis points to 34% due to improvement in margins of engineering and cement divisions. Surge in revenue coupled with improvement in margins have led to 71% jump in operating profit to Rs 25.3 crore.

Other income declined by 30% to Rs 1.48 crore while interest expenses increased by 38% Rs 1.53 crore. As provision for depreciation increased by 39% to Rs 1.98 crore, PBT increased 62% to Rs 23.27 crore.

After providing for tax (up 63% to Rs 6.78 crore) PAT of the quarter soared 62% to Rs 16.49 crore.

On standalone basis, in FY 2007, its sales had grown by a solid 51% to Rs 248.77 crore and PAT was up 176% to Rs 48.28 crore.

Between FY 2004 to FY 2007, sales have more than doubled and net profit has leap-forged from Rs 1.17 crore to rs 48.28 crore.

For the quarter ended June’07 the engineering division reported growth in revenue of 28% to Rs 32.26 crore. PBIT margins for the division increased to 27.34% from 20.81%. PBIT for the quarter zoomed by 68% to Rs 8.82 crore.

Cement division reported a 57% growth in revenues to Rs 59.31 crore. During the quarter dispatches increased by 30% to 190.41 thousand tonnes while realisations increased by 21% to Rs 3119 per tonne. Due to improvement in realisations PBIT margins of the segment improved to 28.24% as compared to 26.24%. Thus PBIT shot up 69% to Rs 16.75 crore.

Power division has reported decline in revenue of 37% to Rs 2.11 crore. PBIT margins for the division have declined to 17.06% from 28.36%. The PBIT for the quarter stood at Rs 0.36 crore, which was 62% lower as compared to the corresponding quarter in previous year.

Engineering division: Capitalising on capex boom

Engineering division contributed 44% of the company’s FY 2007 sales and 51% of PBIT.

The company operates a versatile engineering facility that is capable of manufacturing heavy mechanical equipment to a given design for various industries. The Unit has an integrated facility comprising of foundry, heavy fabrication and machine shop facilities.

This division of the company has significantly contributed to the development of core sector infrastructure in India, Srilanka, Bangladesh and Vietnam. The company has made a pioneering contribution in the modernising & expansion of the Cement and Sugar industries in India by providing high quality import substitution equipment.

Due to all round growth in the Cement, Sugar and Infrastructure sectors, the operation of the Engineering Unit at Tiruvottiyur has been substantially better in terms of turnover and profits.

Capital goods industry is doing very well in both domestic and export markets, benefiting KCP.

Widening of the product range has also widened the customer base. This is leading to better value addition.

With the orders on hand of about Rs 120 crore and the improving product-mix, the management is confident that the performance during fiscal 2007-2008 will be buoyant.

KCP’s engineering division has planned a capex of Rs 20 crore in FY 2008 and Rs 40 crore in FY 2009.

Cement: Demand and price outlook in the south remains the best

Cement division contributed 51% of sales and 42% of PBIT in FY 2007.

The company operates a plant of 5,00,000 tonnes annual capacity at Macherla in Guntur District of Andhra Pradesh. Strong emphasis on new technology characterizes all operations at KCP’s Macherla plant. India’s 1st dry process kiln was installed here in 1958 by HUMBOLDT, Germany even while it was still a prototype in Europe. In 1962 KCP installed a second wet process kiln in collaboration with FIVES LILLIE CAIL, France.

In FY 2007, the company marketed cement in Andhra Pradesh, Pondicherry and parts of Tamil Nadu. The company’s sells 90% of the production in Andhra Pradesh.

Demand for cement has increased substantially in Andhra Pradesh. Hence prices are expected to remain firm and even go up and rule at higher levels as compared to previous year.. The Company has installed and commissioned in April 2007, a Waste Heat Recovery System, at a cost of Rs.11.50 crore, which is expected to generate 1.75 MW electricity. This will bring down outside power purchase by 20% reducing cost of production even as cement prices remain high.

Earlier, KCP had proposed to set up a new cement plant about 70 km away from the existing Macherla plant. But it has now deferred the proposal. However, the company has got allotted new mines for the greenfield plant and is expected to commission them in a couple of weeks and feed its existing Macherla plant in Andhra Pradesh. The company has planned a capex of about Rs 10 crore for de-bottlenecking and plant maintenance in FY 2008.

Power: Capturing hydel and wind potential

The company has five mini-hydel units aggregating to 8.25 MW capacity on the Guntur Branch Canal of the Nagarjuna Sagar Dam. This being an irrigation canal, water is expected to be available for seven to eight months of the year. Electricity generated in these units is wheeled to the company’s Cement Unit for use. Generation in excess of the consumption at the cement unit is banked on a monthly basis and is to be used within twelve months of generation. Electricity unused even after twelve months is sold to the Grid. Electricity used in the cement factory will be deducted from the monthly bills and will get a relief at the H.T rates, while electricity sold to grid will be paid for at the prevalent purchase price as determined by APERC.

Prospects of this Unit are dependent on a good monsoon. Abundant rainfall in the current year has filled the Nagarjuna Sagar Dam to its full capacity and adequate water supply is expected for the hydel plants in FY 2008. As result, this segment is expected to contribute substantially to the profits in FY 2008, from the September quarter..

In FY 2007, the company set up a Wind Farm of 3.75 MW, which was commissioned in September 2006, in Uthumalai in Tirunelveli District, mainly to cater to the power requirements of the Engineering Unit.

Real estate adds the spice

The company is planning to put its real estate in Hyderabad, Vijayawada and Chennai (Thiruvatriyur) to proper use.

The company proposes to develop a 3 star hotel at its land (3-4 acre) in Hyderabad at a cost of Rs 40 crore and is in talks with leading hospitality chains for managing the property.

The company also contemplates developing a Container Freight Station at the spare land at its Engineering unit at Chennai given its proximity to Ennore Port.

The company is also proposing to build mall at Vijaywada where it has a land of less than half an acre.

The last two projects are yet to be worked on financial parameters. The hotel project will be largely funded by internal accruals and external borrowings.

Consolidated financial performance is even stronger than the standalone performance

KCP’s subsidiary’s Vietnam sugar plant made a profit of Rs 5.07 crore in the fiscal ended December 2006 and had a carry-forward profit of Rs 1.10 crore after wiping out accumulated losses. The ensuing sugar year is also expected to be good in terms of cane availability.

The capacity of the Vietnam sugar plant is proposed to be increased by 2,000 tonnes as there is enormous potential with cane availability for longer days of about 230 days. KCP has also proposed a 15-MW cogeneration plant. The expanded capacity and the cogen plant is to be operational by FY 2009.

In FY 2006, the company reported standalone EPS of Rs 13.6. Against this it registered consolidated EPS of 16.6, higher by 22%.

In FY 2007, the company reported standalone EPS of Rs 37.5. Against this it registered consolidated EPS of 46.1, higher by 23%.

Valuations are very attractive

In FY 2008, we expect the company to register sales and net profit of Rs 330.33 crore and Rs 68.93 crore respectively. On equity of Rs 12.89 crore and face value of Rs 10 per share, standalone EPS works out to Rs 53.5. The share price trades at Rs 358. Standalone P/E works out to just 6.7. Also the standalone book value will cross Rs 150 mark in FY 2007.

In FY 2008 consolidated EPS is expected to be around Rs 61. P/E on the expected FY 2008 consolidated EPS of Rs 61, works out to just 5.8.

KCP: Financials

 

 

0403 (12)

0503 (12)

0603 (12)

0703(12)

0803 (12P)

Sales

116.77

135.84

164.85

248.77

330.33

OPM (%)

8.47

14.5

15.1

30.8

34.0

OP

9.89

19.72

24.81

76.67

112.43

Other Inc.

3.97

4.74

9.68

6.53

4.57

PBIDT

13.86

24.46

34.49

83.20

117.00

Interest

5.84

4.89

4.44

4.44

5.36

PBDT

8.02

19.57

30.05

78.76

111.64

Dep.

6.67

4.94

5.19

6.18

7.69

PBT

1.35

14.63

24.86

72.58

103.95

Tax

0.18

4.94

7.35

24.30

35.02

PAT

1.17

9.69

17.51

48.28

68.93

EPS* (Rs)

0.9

7.5

13.6

37.5

53.5

Consolidated. EPS* (Rs)

N.A

N.S

16.6

46.1

61.0

* Anulised on current equity of Rs 12.89 crore; Face value Rs 10 each
(P): Projections
EPS is calculated after excluding the EO and relevant tax
EO: Extra-ordinary item
Figures in Rs crore
Source: Capitaline Corporate Database

 

KCP: Results

 

 

0706(3)

0606 (3)

Var. (%)

0703(12)

0603 (12)

Var. (%)

Sales

74.37

52.48

42

248.77

164.85

51

OPM (%)

34.0

28.1

 

30.8

15.1

 

OP

25.30

14.76

71

76.67

24.82

209

Other inc.

1.48

2.11

-30

6.53

9.68

-33

PBIDT

26.78

16.87

59

83.20

34.50

141

Interest

1.53

1.11

38

4.44

4.44

0

PBDT

25.25

15.76

60

78.76

30.06

162

Dep.

1.98

1.42

39

6.18

5.19

19

PBT

23.27

14.34

62

72.58

24.87

192

Tax

6.78

4.17

63

24.30

7.35

231

PAT

16.49

10.17

62

48.28

17.52

176

EPS*

51.2

31.6

 

37.5

13.6

 

* Anulised on current equity of Rs 12.89 crore; Face value Rs 10 each
EPS is calculated after excluding the EO and relevant tax
EO: Extra-ordinary item
Figures in Rs crore
Source: Capitaline Corporate Database

 

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$$ DreamGains !! $$ Wednesday Telefolio : KEI Industries : Buy

 

KEI Industries

Kinetic growth to continue

Continues to expand its capacity aggressively to capitalise on the increasing demand for power cables due to expansion and upgradation of power transmission network.

Buy

KEI Industries

BSE Code

517569

NSE Code

KEI

Bloomberg

KEII@IN

Reuter

KEIN.BO

52-week High/Low

Rs 130 / Rs 65

Current Price

Rs 80 (as on 10th October 2007)

KEI Industries is an established player in the power cables segment and is the second largest power cable company in India. The company produces power cables, SS wires and house wires. They have traditionally manufactured Low Tension (LT) cables since inception, and since last year forayed into High Tension (HT) cables. They have four plants- one in Delhi, two in Bhiwadi and fourth in Silvassa. The company is in the process of setting up a fifth plant in Uttaranchal.

Cable industry is in the buoyant phase

Measures to reduce the demand-supply gap in the power sector will continue to drive the demand for the transmission cabling industry for years together. The Indian government's thrust to improve inter-regional power transmission and embark on underground cabling to reduce distribution losses will also provide a positive demand impetus. The ongoing infrastructure and realty boom and the huge capex planned in various heavy industries continue to create unprecedented demand for power cables. Opportunities for the cabling sector are also ripe in Africa, West Asia and the Gulf region, which are poised to make significant investments in the power sector. In a nutshell, there is a robust demand potential visible on the horizon.

The power cables industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 20-25% over the next few years. The current size of the industry is Rs 5000 crore and is expected to grow to Rs 15000 crore by FY2012. Most of the business is expected to flow to existing players.

The prospects of the industry underwent a change a year ago when New investments in power sector were planned under Plax X and XI for addition of 100,000MW of power, thus generating huge demand for power cables in generation, transmission and distribution. Set up of special freight corridor by railways and other up-gradation programmes will also increase demand for cables.

Strong customer base

The company enjoys strong demand from various sectors- Power, cement, fertilizers, Steel, Infrastructure, energy, international EPCs. The company sells most of its production in the institutional segment (70%) and 20% in retail segment. Some of their big customers are L&T, ABB, NTPC, Tata Power, Indian Railways, Seimens, Areva, BPCL, IOC, Essar, Sail, Tata Steel, Suzlon energy, Gail, ONGC etc.

Financials have kept pace with the strong demand

For the quarter ended June 2007, sales grew 84% to Rs 183.04 crore. However OPM fell 220 basis points to 13.1%. Thus OP was up by 58% to Rs 23.96 crore. Other income was up from just Rs 13 lakh to Rs 3.68 crore (due to forex gains on pending FCCBs) and interest cost rose 155% to Rs 8.55 crore. As depreciation rose 37% to Rs 1.91 crore, PBT went up by 62% to Rs 17.18 crore.

As taxation (including deferred tax) grew 79% to Rs 5.25 crore, PAT went up by 56% to Rs 11.93 crore.

Reaping benefits of past strategies

All the strategies that the company had embarked upon in the past have showed results. One of the key accomplishments of the company included the timely completion and on track capacity expansion of the HT plant. Contribution of HT cables to the overall revenues has doubled.

The company has also successfully acquired orders in the EPC space for cable supply and laying of cables. Revenue from sales to institutional customers continued to be robust while revenues from the export sector where it has been focusing in the recent past has also grown well.

Capacities have been expanded continuously

Over the past three years the company has been continuously increasing its capex. Capacity of SS (stainless steel) wires, which stood at 2400000 kg in FY 2004, was increased to 2650000 kg in FY 2005. This was further increased to 3250000 kg in FY 2006 and then 4800000 kg in FY 2007. Thus in past 3 years its capacity of SS wires was increased by 100%.

During the same period, cable capacity was increased from 14000 Kms to 25000 Kms to 32000 Kms to 40000 in FY 2007. Cable capacity grew by 186% in past 3 years.

Capacity of Winding Wire was increased 150% from 100000 kms in FY 2006 to 250000 kms in FY 2007.

Further expansion

The company is setting up New Project at Chopanki (Rajasthan) for manufacture of existing range of products i.e. LT / HT power cable. The New Project will be commissioned by October 2007. The approximate cost of the Project is Rs 55-60 crore which will be executed in two phases. The company is expecting an additional turnover of approximately Rs 250 crore from this Project. The company is also undertaking modernisation & expansion of its existing units at Bhiwadi & Silvassa.

Keeping in view benefits expected from HT facilities and expansion in LT Power Cables and ongoing expansion in House Wire/ Flexible Wire facility at Silvassa, the management expects that barring unforeseen circumstances there will be substantial increase in sales and profit of the company during the year 2007-08.

Valuation is attractive

In FY 2008, we expect the company to register sales and net profit of Rs 934.99 crore and Rs 59.36 crore. On fully diluted equity of Rs 14.2 crore, EPS works out to 8.4. The share price trades at Rs 80. P/E works out to just 9.6.

KEI Industries: Financials

 

 

0503 (12)

0603 (12)

0703 (12)

0803 (12P)

Sales

203.16

298.29

600.65

934.99

OPM (%)

9.6

14.7

14.4

13.8

OP

19.6

43.76

86.77

129.23

Other inc.

1.93

2.04

0.61

4.23

PBIDT

21.53

45.80

87.38

133.46

Interest

6.85

9.46

23.74

39.14

PBDT

14.68

36.34

63.64

94.33

Dep.

1.99

2.69

5.65

8.30

PBT

12.69

33.65

57.99

86.03

Tax

4.30

7.64

17.85

26.67

PAT

8.39

26.01

40.14

59.36

EPS* (Rs)

1.2

3.7

5.7

8.4

* Annualised on diluted equity of Rs 14.20 crore; Face Value: Rs 2
(P): Projections
EO: Extraordinary items
EPS is calculated after excluding EO and relevant tax
Figures in Rs crore
Source: Capitaline Corporate Databases

 

KEI Industries: Results

 

 

0706 (3)

0606 (3)

Var. (%)

0703 (12)

0603 (12)

Var. (%)

Sales

183.04

99.35

84

600.65

298.29

101

OPM (%)

13.1

15.3

 

14.4

14.7

 

OP

23.96

15.20

58

86.77

43.76

98

Other inc.

3.68

0.13

2731

0.61

2.04

-70

PBIDT

27.64

15.33

80

87.38

45.80

91

Interest

8.55

3.35

155

23.74

9.46

151

PBDT

19.09

11.98

59

63.64

36.34

75

Dep.

1.91

1.39

37

5.65

2.69

110

PBT

17.18

10.59

62

57.99

33.65

72

Tax

4.05

2.54

59

14.65

5.26

179

Deferred Tax

1.20

0.40

200

3.20

2.38

34

PAT

11.93

7.65

56

40.14

26.01

54

EPS* (Rs)

6.7

4.3

 

5.7

3.7

 

* Annualised on diluted equity of Rs 14.20 crore; Face Value: Rs 2
(P): Projections
EO: Extraordinary items
EPS is calculated after excluding EO and relevant tax
Figures in Rs crore
Source: Capitaline Corporate Databases

 

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