Sensex

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

DG - Bar Economics

 

An entertaining exercise came from a friend. It is credited to Dr. David R. Kamerschen. I am reproducing the same after adapting it to Indian Currency.

 

Bar Stool Economics                                        

Suppose ten men go out every day for beer and the bill for all ten comes to Rs.1000.
If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:

The first four men (The poorest) would pay nothing.

The fifth would pay Rs.10.

The sixth would pay Rs.30.

The seventh would pay Rs.70.

The eighth would pay Rs.120.

The ninth would pay Rs.180.

The tenth man (the richest) would pay Rs.590.

So, that's what they decided to do.

 

The ten men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement.

Until one day, the owner threw them a curve.
"Since you are all such good customers," he said, "I'm going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by Rs.200."
Drinks for the ten now cost just Rs.80.

 

The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes so the first four men were unaffected. They would still drink for free.

 

But what about the other six men - the paying customers? How could they divide the Rs.200 windfall so that everyone would get his 'fair share?' They realized that Rs.200divided by six is Rs.33.3. But if they subtracted that from everybody's share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to drink his beer. So, the bar owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man's bill by roughly the same amount, and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay.

 

And so:

 

The fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100% savings).

The sixth now paid Rs.20 instead of Rs.30 (33%savings).

The seventh now pay Rs.50 instead of Rs.70 (28%savings).

The eighth now paid Rs.90 instead of Rs.120 (25% savings).

The ninth now paid Rs.140 instead of Rs.180 (22% savings).

The tenth now paid Rs.490 instead of Rs.590 (16% savings).

 

Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to drink for free. But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings.

 

"I only got Rs.10 out of the Rs.20,"declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man," but he got Rs.100!" "Yeah, that's right," exclaimed the fifth man. "I too saved only Rs10.  It's unfair that he got ten times more than I!"

 

"That's true!!" shouted the seventh man. "Why should he get Rs.100 back when I got only Rs20? The wealthy get all the breaks!"


"Wait a minute," yelled the first four men in unison. "We didn't get anything at all. The system exploits the poor!"

 

The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.

 

The next night the tenth man didn't show up for drinks. So the nine sat down as usual and had beers. But when it came time to pay the bill, they were surprised to discover they didn't have enough money amongst all of them for even half of the bill!

 

And that, ladies and gentlemen, journalists and college professors, is how our tax system works. The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore. In fact, they might start drinking overseas where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.

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Regards

BigGains !!
.

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[Ways-2gain] 4 pillars of Trading.

 

4 Pillars of Trading


4 Pillars

I "see" the market through the lens of four primary metrics: fundamentals, technical, structural and psychology.

When viewed in isolation, each of those approaches has inherent flaws.

1. Fundamentals are best at the top and worst near a low.

2. Technical indicators often trigger buy signals higher, on breakouts, and sell signals lower, after a stock has broken down.

3. Structural factors — debt, derivatives and currency

effects — can self-sustain in a cumulative manner until such time they overwhelm the system.

4. Psychology, such social mood and risk appetites, can gain momentum until they snap under the weight of the herd mentality.



--
Management lies in dropping the last alphabet: manage – men. still better, drop one more alphabet: manage – me.

Samir Kumar Shah.
9830405060

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What is an e-IPO?

What is an e-IPO?


What is an e-IPO?

Posted: 22 Feb 2010 08:55 PM PST

The password to see buy calls is: LIFEISCOLOURFUL. It will change next week, so stay tuned to these emails. The password to see buy calls is: LIFEISCOLOURFUL. It will change next week, so stay tuned to these emails. A company can also issue capital to public through the online system of the stock exchange. The appointment of various intermediaries by the issuer includes a prerequisite that such members/registrars have the required facilities to accommodate such [...]

Read More...


[sharetrading] 9AM with Emkay - 24 February, 2010

 

 
 
 
stock9AM with Emkay - 24 February, 2010

 

The Morning Meeting Notes as on 24th February, 2010.

 

Contents

n        Research Views

Mphasis reports Jan'10 Quarter results today. Our expectations

n    We expect Mphasis to report US$ revenues at US$ 250 mn (+6.5% QoQ). Note that Jan'10 quarter will also include full impact of AGG captive unit (revenue run rate of ~US$ 24 mn p.a). Revenues in INR terms expected at Rs 11.7 bn (+3.7% QoQ) (includes Rs 150 mn benefit from hedging).

n    EBITDA estimated at Rs 3,123 mn (+6% QoQ) driven by ~60 bps sequential expansion in operating margins to 26.6%.

n    Profits estimated at Rs 2,505 mn (+2.3% QoQ). Interaction with some clients indicates that they are looking at net profits coming in at ~Rs 2,700 mn ahead of our estimates.

n    Key things to watch out for (1) ITO revenue growth outlook (~50%+ YoY revenue growth in the segment in the last year), (2) Business flow from the parent HP (~67% of revenues from HP-EDS channel)

At CMP of Rs 727, Mphasis is trading at 14.5x/13.5x on our Oct'10E and Oct'11E earnings of Rs 50 and Rs 53.8 respectively. We have a HOLD rating on the stock with a price target of Rs 650.

n        Technical Comments

Pattern under making:

After choppy session, finally Nifty ended the day on a positive note indicating that the slant of the day was in the corner of the bulls. Further the chart of Nifty reveals that a symmetric triangle is under making. Additionally, this triangle is a part of the right shoulder of inverse Head and shoulders pattern. So the break above 4912-4930 range will trigger fresh buying on account of pattern breakout, which eventually will lead Nifty to higher targets in the coming session. However we will see a pattern failure on the break of 4805 mark, on account of which Nifty will see a southward slide for the retest of 4675 mark.

BSE Auto:

BSE Auto index continued its downward journey with its series of falling highs and finally closed at 6879 with a loss of 1.82%. Going forward this index has also broken the support of 6938, and is still looking weak, thus in the coming days we will witness further downside in this index and it will test its recent low of 6721.

 

Click here to read report: 9AM with Emkay

 

 

Regards,

Emkay Research

Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.

Paragon Center, H – 13 - 16, 1st Floor,

Opp. Century Mills, Pandurang Budhkar Marg,

Worli, Mumbai - 400 013.

Tel: 6612 1212

Fax: 6624 2410

E-mail: emkayresearch@emkayglobal.com

 

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Please use your discretion before acting on the ideas expressed in the group.
Happy Trading,
United we grow!!!
.

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[sharetrading] ASIA

 

US is testing its supports on day charts. Hence ASIA is also very weak. Expect India also to open weak. Be careful of shorting market as full short signal has not originated. At least ID 4 India, trades to be done as per ID data….

Abe

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Please use your discretion before acting on the ideas expressed in the group.
Happy Trading,
United we grow!!!
.

__,_._,___

[sharetrading] Investors Eye [1 Attachment]

 
[Attachment(s) from ekam ber included below]

 
Investor's Eye: Update - Aditya Birla Nuvo (Life insurance and AUM businesses outperform); Special - Monthly economy review

 
Investor's Eye
[February 23, 2010] 
Summary of Contents

STOCK UPDATE

Aditya Birla Nuvo   
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy 
Price target: Rs1,030
Current market price: Rs809

Life insurance and AUM businesses outperform

Key points

  • Aditya Birla Nuvo (ABN) is well positioned in its life insurance and asset management business segments versus its competitors. The company?s subsidiary, Birla Sun Life Insurance (BSLI), and joint venture, Birla Sun Life Asset Management (BSLAM), have seen improvement in their market share and outperformed the industry. 
  • On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, BSLI reported a 10.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in its annualised premium equivalent (APE) as against a 3.7% y-o-y increase reported by all private players. It was also far better than the over 13% y-o-y drop in APE reported by other major life insurance companies such as ICICI Prudential (which posted a 15.8% y-o-y decline in its APE) and Bajaj Allianz (that reported a 13.8% y-o-y drop). Additionally, where BSLI saw its market share increasing to 9.1% YTD FY2010, other major players witnessed their market share shrink. 
  • The asset management business under the financial services segment also posted strong performance. The company?s joint venture, BSLAM, recorded a 61.4% y-o-y increase in its asset under management (AUM) on a YTD basis as against a 36.1% YTD growth for private players. Furthermore, BSLAM?s market share has also improved significantly to 11% YTD FY2010.
  • The company is also planning to re-structure its businesses to rationalise cost. In line with this, the company plans to merge its three wholly-owned garment subsidiaries?Madura Garments Exports, MG Lifestyle Clothing and Peter England Fashions and Retail?with itself. These initiatives would help the company to rationalise cost, as synergies would come in the form of reduction in administrative and general expenses. The company is also mulling to bring all its financial services business under one holding company. In our view the move is aimed to tap the synergy of the group's various financial services entities.
  • With improving business fundamentals, we believe the cash flow from value businesses (insulators, textiles, fertilisers, carbon black and rayon) would also improve significantly going forward. This will bring on track the company?s strategy to fund its growth businesses (garments, life insurance, financial services, BPO & IT and telecom) from the surplus cash flow generated from the value businesses.
  • We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs1,030. We have taken into account 11.4 crore fully-diluted shares, including warrant conversions, to arrive at our fair value. At the current market price, the stock trades at a price/earnings (PE) of 35.3x FY2011E stand-alone earnings and an enterprise value (EV)/earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA) of 13.8x FY2011E.

SHAREKHAN SPECIAL

Monthly economy review

Economy: IIP growth at 16 year high

  • The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for December 2009 rose at its fastest rate in 16 years, registering a growth of 16.8% year on year (yoy). The growth in the industrial output during December 2009 was broad based and spanned across segments.The manufacturing segment posted the highest growth of a strong 18.5% yoy followed by the mining and electricity segments with 9.5% y-o-y and 5.4% y-o-y growth respectively.
  • The inflation rate for January 2010 came in at 8.56%, which stood above the consensus estimate of 8.26% yoy. The inflation rate for January 2010 indicates a 125-basis-point increase from the December 2009 inflation rate of 7.31%, led primarily by the rising prices of food products and articles.
  • India?s trade deficit for December 2009 came in at USD10.14 billion, increasing on both year-on-year (y-o-y) and sequential bases by 66.7% and 4.7% respectively. Notably, the exports continued to expand during December 2009 and registered a y-o-y growth of 9.3%. Importantly, the import growth turned positive during the month registering a 27.2% growth on a y-o-y basis.
  • Concerns have surfaced recently over the ability of the Greek government to honour its debt obligations as the Greek fiscal deficit is threatening to reach approximately 12% of the nation?s output. Importantly, many other European nations (Portugal, Ireland, Spain etc) too are in a similar situation and may only add to the fears of sovereign defaults (read more under ?Global round-up?).

Banking: CRR hiked by 75 basis points

  • The credit offtake (non-food) registered a growth of 15.2% yoy (as on January 29, 2010), which was higher than the 14.4% y-o-y growth seen during the previous period (January 15, 2010). 
  • Deposits registered a growth of 17.1% yoy (as on January 29, 2010), which was higher than the 16.8% y-o-y growth seen during the previous period (January 15, 2010).
  • The credit-deposit (CD) ratio remained more or less stable at 69.5% (as on January 29, 2010), in line with the 69.9% CD ratio during the period ended January 15, 2010.
  • The money supply (M3) growth as on January 29, 2010 stood at 17% yoy, higher than the 16.5% y-o-y growth seen during the period ended January 15, 2010.
  • The yields on the government securities (G-Secs; ten-year) stood at 7.87% as on February 19, 2010, up by 23 basis points from the previous month?s level. The G-Sec yields for all the other maturities expanded on a month-on-month (m-o-m) basis with the five-year and three-year yields expanding by 32 basis points and 63 basis points respectively. The G-Sec yields rose due to the combined effect of rising inflation and expectations of the government taking measures towards fiscal consolidation. 
  • The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 75 basis points to 5.75%, which signals a shift in its stance to a distinctively hawkish one in a bid to contain the spiraling inflation. However, the challenge for the RBI remains as the sustainability of the global recovery is still viewed with caution and inflationary pressures in food items are threatening to become more widespread.

Equity markets: Average daily volumes contract

  • During the month-till-date (MTD) period (February 1-19, 2010), the average daily volumes contracted in both the cash, and futures and options (F&O) segments.
  • The total industry average assets under management (AUM; equity + debt) declined by 4.1% month on month (mom) during January 2010. The net resources mobilised in equity schemes during January 2010 stood at Rs1,571 crore as the resources raised through the new and the existing schemes outpaced the redemptions.
  • During the MTD period in February 2010 (February 01-18, 2010), the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and the domestic mutual funds (MFs) remained net sellers.

Life insurance: Private players outperform LIC

  • The annualised premium earnings (APE) for the life insurance industry grew by a muted 2.3% yoy after registering a growth of 58.9% yoy in the previous month.
  • In January 2010, the gross premium underwritten for the general insurance industry grew by 15% yoy, higher than the 13.4% y-o-y growth seen in the previous month. The private sector players posted a healthy growth of 20.5% yoy while the public sector players registered a growth of 10.9% yoy during the month.

 
Click here to read report: Investor's Eye
Regards,
The Sharekhan Research Team
myaccount@sharekhan.com 

Manage your newsletter subscriptions

 

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Attachment(s) from ekam ber

1 of 1 File(s)

Please use your discretion before acting on the ideas expressed in the group.
Happy Trading,
United we grow!!!
.

__,_._,___

Indian Stocks BSE

Indian Stocks BSE


ACI INFOCOM ( 517356 )

Posted: 23 Feb 2010 05:55 AM PST

Free Intraday Cash Tips from Tipz.in for 24th February 10
517356 Chart ( ACI INFOCOM )
Action Trigger Price Stop LossTarget 1 Target 2
BUY ABOVE24.524.32525.4
S.SELL BELOW24.124.423.523
530315 Chart ( HIND.TIN WRK)
Action Trigger Price Stop LossTarget 1 Target 2
BUY ABOVE135134138.5142
S.SELL BELOW133.5134.6131.5127
Chart ( HOUSING DEV )
Action Trigger Price Stop LossTarget 1 Target 2
BUY ABOVE295.5293.5298.5302.5
S.SELL BELOW292.5294.5291.5286.5


VERTEX SPG ( 531544 )

Posted: 23 Feb 2010 05:54 AM PST

Hot Stocks from Tipz.in for 24th February 10
531544(VERTEX SPG ), 531486(FILMCITY MED), 532271(CYBERMATE ),
530315(HIND.TIN WRK), 533026(CHEMCEL ), 532127(MOBILE TELE ),
514450(MAHA.RUBTECH), 517356(ACI INFOCOM ), 512626(ORBIT EXPORT),
532758(KEW INDUSTR ), 522029(WINDSOR MACH), 504220(W.S.INDUSTR.).


[indianstockmarket] Analysis of Indian Stock Market

 

Welcome to CRNINDIA.COM

For 24th February,  2010

Letter archive

 

Values as on 23rd February, 2010

 

Index

Open

High

Low

Close

From yesterday

Nifty Spot 

4856.60

4884.10

4833.15

4875.75

+29.35(points)

Nifty Future February

4832.30

4889

4830

4880

+29.20(points)

Cnx Midcap 200

7142

7173.70

7115.05

7127.65

-19.30(points)

Cnxit

5760

5796.95

5740

5788.90

+45.10(points)

Bank Nifty 

8444

8585

8444

8514.55

+40.55(points)

The above values of Index are actual closings at 3:30 pm and not the averages.
 

Trend  of the markets 

Daily trend of Index
Daily trend of Index has not  to be confused with intraday trend of the market
Trend for Delivery stocks
Parameters to buy and hold delivery stocks.
Intraday trend of Index
It is seen every half an hour during the market time
Trend of other world markets

 

Related links

Assumptions
Which we believe every trader has to go through


Delivery
when delivery should be bought and when not to be bought 
Deliery sms


Faq
Frequently asked questions on Indian Stock Market

Strong & Weak  futures 

This is list of 10 strong future: Glaxo, Siemens, Axis Bank, Titan, Sun Pharma, Mphasis, Hdfc Bank, Hindalco, Hero Honda & JSW Steel.  And this is list of 10 Weak futures: Bajaj Hind, Balrampur Chini, ICSA, FSL, EKC, DLF, GVKPIL, MLL, KFA & Suzlon.

 

Nifty is in Up trend  
 

Technical Analysis

Technical terms
Technical Terms used in technical analysis of Indian Stock Market

Commodity Trend Reports

NCDEX Trend report
MCX Trend report
Metals Trend Report
NYMEX and COMEX trend report

Technical Analysis of Stock Market

Daily Trend of all Futures traded at NSE
Technical  Analysis of active future stocks
  (updated daily)
Technical analysis of 20 active stocks (updated daily)
5, 9,18 & 200 dma 
Know the 5, 9, 18 & 200 DMA of all stocks on NSE on daily basis

Weekly reports

Weekly Moving Average (NSE)
Weekly Moving Average (BSE)
Currency trend report

Charts

Gold and silver charts

Holidays

Bse holidays
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Nasdaq Holidays

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