Sensex

Thursday, July 26, 2007

$$ DreamGains !! $$ Sachin Chavan Total Newsletter - 27th Jul 2007

Sachin Chavan Daily Total Newsletter - Jul 27, 2007

 Tel: 022 - 25308355                           Email: mail@sachinchavan.com                     Mobile: 098203-16390
Website: www.sachinchavan.com
Please read the disclaimer at the end of this page. Read this newsletter only if you agree with it.

Learning 
Center:

  "Nobody has things just as he would like them. The thing to do is to make a success with what material I have. It is a sheer waste of time and soulpower to imagine what I would do if things were different. They are not different" - Dr. Frank Crane

 

Part I: Market Overview & Nifty

Overview

Volatility ruled though the market finally managed to close up on the settlement day. More turbulent times can be expected ahead with the continued overbought state and slipping global markets. Internationally, excess liquidity earlier has now led to sub-prime mortgage worries.

Can India remain insulated for long? The jury is still out on this, but till then, traders would like to protect themselves against high volatility.

Nifty

 

Current Spot Rate

Supports

Resistances

Trend

 

S2

S1

R1

R2

MT

ST

4620

4380

4450

4770

4900

Bullish

Ovrbot

 

 

MT = Medium Term (3-12 weeks forecast); ST = Short Term (1-14 days forecast)

 

Out-performers (for upto next 3 months)

Under-Performers (for upto next 3 months)

Media, Cap Goods, Banks, Power, Metals

Tech Majors, Refining majors, Sugar

Out-performer' dooes not necessarily mean bullish, but that it can perform better than the overall market. 'Similarly, 'Under-performer' does not necessarily mean bearish, but that it can perform worse than the overall market.

Market Barometer (for short term only)

Based on the prevailing market trend, this section mentions to what extent it is preferable to hold long positions, short positions or remain univested for a short-term trader at this time.

  Short term position: 

Long (plus)

 

Short (minus)

 

Uninvested

 

Break-up:

Low

None

High

Media Schedule:

Wed, Jul 18   11:00am-12:00pm:  'Sauda Apka', CNBC Awaaz

Wed, Jul 18   09:40am-10:30am:  Zee Business

Wed, Jul 18   03:00pm-03:40pm:  '2.30 Factor', NDTV Profit

 

 

 

Click here for Details and Registration for Paid Daily Newsletter

 

Salient News (from public domain)

p

Ranbaxy, GSK settle Valtrex US patent case.

p

Govt speeds up the process of certification of foreign cement manufacturers.

p

IVR Prime IPO subscribed over two times.

p

Elder Pharmaceuticals acquires 20% stake in Neutra Health in UK.

p

Tata Indicom slashes ISD rates to Rs 1.99/min.

p

NIIT to train IT manpower in Malaysia.

p

Reliance plans $2.5 b investment in fertilizer plant.

p

Pidilite acquires Nebula Trading in UAE.

 

Part II: Equity and Derivative Break-outs (for 1-4 weeks)

 

c  Patel Engg completed target (483) amounting to 6.9% profit in 13 days. c.

c  Blue Star Inds completed target (264) amounting to 6.5% profit in 16 days. c.

c  Pantaloon derivative yielded 23% return on margin capital in 1 day. Equivalent profit per lot = Rs 12000. c.

c  BRFL stopped at 218, equivalent to loss of 12% c.

 

The following scrips have provided short-term breakouts at the points mentioned. Likely target/s and stoplosses commensurate with the breakout are also given below.  These are based only on technical analysis and are for informational purpose alone.

 

 

A breakout can be either bullish or bearish. Bullish breakouts would have targets above and stoplosses below and vice-versa for bearish breakouts. The mode tells whether the breakout is more suitable for equity (delivery-based) or derivatives trading.

 

 

Scrip

Break-out Point

Likely Targets

Stop
loss

Current Price

Targets Completed

Mode

Type

Date

Price

T1

T2

None

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Updated levels are highlighted in yellow. All prices mentioned are NSE equity prices (even for derivative breakouts)

 

 

Part III: ASI Analysis of Major 50 Scrips

 

Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Table

 

Absolute Strength Index (ASI) is a technical indicator created by the analyst to indicate the bullishness/flatness/bearishness of any scrip. ASI values for 50 major scrips are updated in the table everyday.

Read below to understand ASI and what purpose it serves.

Description of ASI
ASI, the forward looking proprietary indicator, represents absolute
strength of a scrip. There are two ASI's:

Indicative Key to Use
ASI = 70-100 ->  Bullish
ASI = 60-70   ->  Mildly Bullish

- Medium term (3-12 weeks forecast) and
- Short term (1-14 days forecast),  plotted in the grid above

ASI = 40-60   ->  Flat
ASI = 30-40   ->  Mildly Bearish
ASI = 0-30     ->  Bearish

Note1: ASI < 30% does not mean 'oversold' but indicates weakness (fall expected ), and ASI > 70 does not mean 'overbought' but indicates strength (rise expected)

How to Use

The probability of success of a new Long (plus) position is better if MT trend is Bullish AND ST trend has just turned Bullish (underlined as Bullish). New long positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is overbought/ correcting down/bearish.

The probability of success of a new Short (minus) position is better if  MT trend is Bearish AND ST trend has just turned Bearish (underlined as Bearish ). New short positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is oversold/correcting up/bullish.

The rates mentioned below are 'equity' rates and not 'futures' rates.

 

Scrip

CMP

Medium Term (MT)

Short Term (ST)

 

 

ASI

Trend

Target

ASI

Trend

Target

 

 

Nifty

4620

98

Bullish

4900

76

Ovrbot

-

 

 

ACC

1026

67

Bullish

1180

37

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Bajaj Auto

2417

36

Flat

2100-2675

73

Flat

2300-2480

 

 

BPCL

317

21

Bearish

280

19

Bearish

295

 

 

Bharti Airtel

926

95

Bullish

960

63

Bullish

960

 

 

BHEL

1758

98

Bullish

1950

64

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Century Text

700

86

Bullish

825

41

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Cipla

194

31

Flat

175-260

23

Ovrsold

-

 

 

Dabur

105

83

Bullish

115

69

Flat

100-106

 

 

Dr Reddy's

666

48

Flat

550-810

23

Flat

650-690

 

 

GAIL

338

90

Bullish

360

74

Bullish

360

 

 

Grasim

2963

83

Bullish

3220

49

Flat

2825-3070

 

 

Guj Ambuja

125

67

Bullish

148

36

Corr Dn

-

 

 

HCL Tech

329

62

Flat

285-360

40

Flat

310-345

 

 

HDFC Bank

1217

88

Bullish

1280

61

Bullish

1280

 

 

HDFC

2029

90

Bullish

2250

79

Bullish

2250

 

 

Hero Honda

717

33

Bearish

615

83

Corr Up

-

 

 

Hind Lever

206

43

Flat

175-240

87

Flat

195-210

 

 

Hind Petro

264

29

Bearish

235

53

Flat

250-275

 

 

Hindalco

183

71

Bullish

210

69

Ovrbot

-

 

 

I - Flex

2224

57

Flat

1925-2525

13

Ovrsold

-

 

 

ICICI Bank

945

90

Bullish

1015

24

Corr Dn

-

 

 

IDBI

114

86

Bullish

130

54

Flat

105-122

 

 

Indian Hotels

141

64

Flat

130-160

16

Bearish

140

 

 

IPCL

384

100

Bullish

420

100

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Infosys

2034

64

Flat

1820-2280

81

Bullish

2100

 

 

ITC

168

45

Flat

145-195

86

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Jet Airways

750

39

Flat

700-950

20

Bearish

725

 

 

L&T

2545

93

Bullish

2800

54

Ovrbot

-

 

 

M&M

803

50

Flat

590-860

53

Flat

780-840

 

 

Maruti

839

43

Flat

720-860

66

Flat

810-855

 

 

Nalco

294

86

Bullish

330

64

Flat

280-300

 

 

ONGC

949

74

Bullish

1040

84

Bullish

965

 

 

PNB

525

62

Bullish

625

26

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Ranbaxy

374

33

Bearish

330

61

Corr Up

-

 

 

Rel. Capital

1296

98

Bullish

1340

91

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Rel. Energy

801

86

Bullish

860

100

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Reliance Ind

1942

98

Bullish

1980

100

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Satyam

495

90

Bullish

530

54

Flat

470-530

 

 

SCI

218

95

Bullish

230

54

Flat

210-225

 

 

SBI

1552

100

Bullish

1840

44

Flat

1500-1620

 

 

Steel Authority

156

100

Bullish

170

70

Flat

145-165

 

 

Tata Chem

256

79

Bullish

280

67

Bullish

280

 

 

Tata Steel

704

86

Bullish

740

63

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Tata Motors

732

36

Flat

660-920

36

Flat

720-780

 

 

Tata Power

712

93

Bullish

840

87

Bullish

745

 

 

TCS

1189

45

Flat

1050-1250

56

Flat

1120-1200

 

 

VSNL

466

86

Bullish

525

17

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Wipro

514

40

Flat

435-630

36

Flat

490-530

 

 

Zee Telefilms

350

100

Bullish

410

87

Bullish

365

 

\

 Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Plot

Click here to learn the stock codes used in the plot below.

Note: Scrip name in Red Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has reduced substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Green Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has increased substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Black Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has remained same

 

Disclosure:

The analyst holds long term investments in various Reliance group companies (including Reliance Industries, Reliance Capital, Reliance Energy, Reliance Natural Resources and Reliance Communications).

The analyst has business relations with Reliance Money, a Reliance Capital company. The analyst and his dependents have no positions in other stocks/futures.

Disclaimer:

This newsletter and the opinions/break-outs mentioned therein are for informational purpose only and not a recommendation or an offer or solicitation of an offer to any person with respect to the purchase or sale of the stocks/futures discussed in this report.

I, Sachin Chavan (author), do not accept any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipient &  reader of this material should rely on their own investigations and take professional advice. Subscribers, recipients and readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their actions and shall not hold the Author liable for any investment decisions/ actions or any other action (including abstaining from action) based on the Content provided. Information is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The information provided is based on the theory of Technical Analysis. All levels mentioned, including break-out, target, stoploss are only informative. Trading and investment in stock market is risky and volatile.

This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior
permission from the author.
 - Sachin Chavan

 

__._,_.___
Regards

BigGains !!
Recent Activity
Visit Your Group
SPONSORED LINKS
Yahoo! Finance

It's Now Personal

Guides, news,

advice & more.

New business?

Get new customers.

List your web site

in Yahoo! Search.

Official Samsung

Yahoo! Group for

supporting your

HDTVs and devices.

.

__,_._,___
Posted by nsivaa at 9:32 PM 0 comments
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)