Sensex

Friday, February 05, 2010

Re: [sharetrading] ATTENTION OF MODERATORS

 

Sir here we can't but we can do this from google's blogspot. There is readymade chat clients like meebo and all. With that we can all come there and can chat and live commentary can be done there


From: HS Ratti <ratti2@gmail.com>
To: sharetrading@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Sat, February 6, 2010 1:12:27 PM
Subject: Re: [sharetrading] ATTENTION OF MODERATORS

 

i am sure we can set up a yahoo chat conference or chat group.. by the time you come back

all the best to you.......

hsr


On Sat, Feb 6, 2010 at 11:13 AM, N K Jain <nkjn2001@yahoo. in> wrote:


Rightly said sir please do not ignore people like me to be a part of it.

 

Thanks and Best Regards,
Navneet Jain
Cell: +91 98 10 44 68 17 / 99 90 46 00 37

 

From: sharetrading@ yahoogroups. com [mailto:sharetrading@ yahoogroups. com] On Behalf Of A P Abraham
Sent: Saturday, 06 February, 2010 10:58 AM
To: sharetrading@ yahoogroups. com
Subject: [sharetrading] ATTENTION OF MODERATORS

 

 

I feel there is a need for a chat room for intra day trading, with access only to those who can achieve a strike rate of above 50%, to issue calls ONLY. Also it will not clutter up the group site with messages. Also that way the number of mails we receive will be limited.

Please consider this. As from April I will be very active and in market 100%........ .......  with various calls……. Market hour calls will be restricted to the chat box and off market in group………..

 

Abe





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Please use your discretion before acting on the ideas expressed in the group.
Happy Trading,
United we grow!!!
.

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[sharetrading] ATTENTION OF MODERATORS

 

Dear Abe ( and other moderators -- and of cource Melvin ),
 
I agree to what Abe has to say , however I have one reservation , we cannot allow every tom , dick and harry to post calls there , like Abe rightly said we should allow people based on sucess rate -- the percentage of sucess calls , I beleive, should be atleast 75 % accuracy instead of 50 % as suggested by Abe OVER A MONTH PERIOD.
 
I suggest the following
 
1. Open up the trial chat room Immediately -- say by 15 Feb.
2. Allow people to post their calls ( in camera )  -- to be viewed only by the moderators ONLY. -- Feb 2010.
3. Over a month long period let us moderators , monitor and select the people who give 75 % sucess rate in calls.
4. Then we filter out the rest and eliminate/ stop unsucessfull people from posting calls.
5. Further monitor the 75 % sucess rate people for another month.-- March 2010
6. Finalise people who give 75 % sucess call for 2 months and allow then to post in the chat session ONLY.-- April 2010.
 
See people are our group members because they are getting some benefit from being a member and hence we are also responsible towards them.
 
Let us demonstrate our responsibility by filtering out the  " Junk businessmen " and allowing the " Learned businessmen" take a lead in guiding the members.
 
What do you say to this say Abe ? 

Saggi ( Saggitarius )

--- On Sat, 2/6/10, A P Abraham <abrahamap@airtelmail.in> wrote:

From: A P Abraham <abrahamap@airtelmail.in>
Subject: [sharetrading] ATTENTION OF MODERATORS
To: sharetrading@yahoogroups.com
Date: Saturday, February 6, 2010, 5:28 AM

 

I feel there is a need for a chat room for intra day trading, with access only to those who can achieve a strike rate of above 50%, to issue calls ONLY. Also it will not clutter up the group site with messages. Also that way the number of mails we receive will be limited.

Please consider this. As from April I will be very active and in market 100%........ .......  with various calls……. Market hour calls will be restricted to the chat box and off market in group………..

 

Abe


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Happy Trading,
United we grow!!!
.

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[Technical-Investor] OFF TOPIC Faith, after all no one has seen God!

 



---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: VIVEK KUMAR <vivek1183@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, Dec 21, 2009 at 2:21 PM
Subject: <<Aiii>> Fwd: Faith
To: aaashish_vns@yahoo.com, aiii@googlegroups.com, neeleshp@sushilfinance.com, satyab_jha@yahoo.co.in, satyabhushanjha@rathi.com, siddartha_shrivastava@hotmail.com, sureshindra@hotmail.com, tcbarthakur@rediffmail.com, "abhinav81084@gmail.com" <abhinav81084@gmail.com>, Abhishek Verma <abhishek.bitspilani@gmail.com>, Aditya <avl_0501@yahoo.com>, "alok_kumar24111@rediffmail.com" <alok_kumar24111@rediffmail.com>, anish kumar oi0ak5 <anishmrc2006@gmail.com>, anita Medical <anitamedicalsystems@mtnl.net.in>, arpi_sg12 <arpi_sg12@yahoo.co.in>, Arun Kabra <arunkabra@hotmail.com>, "arunmani23@gmail.com" <arunmani23@gmail.com>, ARVIND KUMAR <arvind1232@gmail.com>, Ashok Sharma <s_ashok54@rediffmail.com>, BSNL TDE Sidhi <sidhitde@rediffmail.com>, CD <ravi2kr2002@yahoo.co.in>, Chandra shekhar <gupta.shekhar03@rediffmail.com>, Chetna Lakhotia <cutypie_chicks@yahoo.co.in>, CMOAI Members <all_cmoai_members@yahoogroups.com>, CMPF Grievances <grievance@cmpfo.gov.in>, Debnath <lunav1@rediffmail.com>, "deebasish@yahoo.co.in" <deebasish@yahoo.co.in>, dinesh kumar saraswat <dksaraswat@indiatimes.com>, Dr Deepak Patkar <drdppatkar@gmail.com>, Dr Nardeo Sharma <snardeo2000@yahoo.com>, Dr NK Misra <dr.nkmisra@gmail.com>, Dr OP Saxena <dr_opsaxena@yahoo.com>, "Dr.Anurag Verma" <dranuragverma@gmail.com>, "dr.umesh oza" <dr_umeshoza@yahoo.com>, "drmashir@rediff.com" <drmashir@rediff.com>, equity knox 1 <syedtauquir_alam@lkpsec.com>, equity knox 11 <dhanbad@eurekasecurities.com>, equity knox 2 <avkumar@uniconindia.in>, equity knox 3 <priya_kanu2004@yahoo.co.in>, equity knox 4 <kundansingh29@yahoo.com>, equity knox 5 <investors_point2006@yahoo.com>, equity knox 6 <rupeshgakhar@yahoo.co.in>, equity knox 7 <rch_rohan@sancharnet.in>, equity knox 8 <poonamsec@bp.sharekhan.com>, equity knox 9 <asanwaria.dhf1@systematixshares.com>, "equitycollector@googlegroups.com" <equitycollector@googlegroups.com>, Geetika Maheshwari <geetika_2806@rediffmail.com>, HIDDEN VALUE RESEARCH <hiddenvalueresearch@gmail.com>, J S Ojha <jsojha@yahoo.com>, kirit sir <kirit_mehtain@yahoo.co.in>, KISHORE KUMAR DAS <kumarkishoredas@gmail.com>, "kklal25@yahoo.co.in" <kklal25@yahoo.co.in>, Madhu <maheshwari_madhu@hotmail.com>, mani kela <manikela@rediffmail.com>, manoj kumar oi0mk2 bhuli <manoj_bhuli@rediffmail.com>, nimesh ashok mehta <nimesh_mehta72@rediffmail.com>, NIRAJ BHAIYA <nirajgupta77@gmail.com>, "nitt.bipin@gmail.com" <nitt.bipin@gmail.com>, Oriental Insurance <orientskt@sancharnet.in>, Prateek Maheshwari <prateek_1104@hotmail.com>, PSM Department RIMS <psmrims@gmail.com>, "quantuminvestments.rohit@gmail.com" <quantuminvestments.rohit@gmail.com>, "rahul.rajhans@in.atlascopco.com" <rahul.rajhans@in.atlascopco.com>, rajesh kumar <rajeshkumar_jmt@rediffmail.com>, Rakesh Arya <drrakesharya@rediff.com>, Ranish Kumar <rajrain77@gmail.com>, richa chhabra <richa.n.blue@gmail.com>, "ritpd@rediffmail.com" <ritpd@rediffmail.com>, rohan ritolia <adorablerohan@gmail.com>, "rohit.qntminv@gmail.com" <rohit.qntminv@gmail.com>, "rohit.quantuminv@gmail.com" <rohit.quantuminv@gmail.com>, "santosh_tinku@rediffmail.com" <santosh_tinku@rediffmail.com>, Shalu <shalini2509@rediffmail.com>, shubham kela <s_kela92@yahoo.co.in>, shubham kela <shubham_kela@rediffmail.com>, Subir Guha <subir@kkcorporation.com>, Sumit Jain <sumit.jain@sushilfinance.com>, SUMMIT PARAG SUSHILFINANCE <sumitj@sushilfinance.com>, Sunil Maheshwari <sunilmah@gmail.com>, "swagata_singha2008@gmail.com" <swagata_singha2008@gmail.com>, TIRTHA NATH BANARJEE OI0TB1 <tirthanathbanerjee@yahoo.co.in>, Tribhuwan Singh <tribsin@yahoo.co.in>, uday bhaiya ludhyana <udaigupta73@hotmail.com>, Udit Maheshwari <udit_14@hotmail.com>, Usha Maheshwari <maheshwariusha@yahoo.com>, VIKASH PANDEY OI0VK8 <vik_y2k_2000@yahoo.com>, vikram agarwal <vikrammagarwal@gmail.com>, "vivaluv20@yahoo.co.in" <vivaluv20@yahoo.co.in>, VIVEK KUMAR <vivek1183@gmail.com>



A VERY INTERESTING CONVERSATION : Worth Reading

An Atheist Professor of Philosophy was speaking to his Class on the problem Science has with GOD, the ALMIGHTY. He asked one of his New Christian Students to stand and . . .

Professor : You are a Christian, aren't you, son ?
Student : Yes, sir.
Professor : So, you Believe in GOD ?
Student : Absolutely, sir.
Professor : Is GOD Good ?
Student : Sure.
Professor : Is GOD ALL - POWERFUL ?
Student : Yes.
Professor : My Brother died of Cancer even though he Prayed to GOD to Heal him. Most of us would attempt to help others who are ill. But GOD didn't.

How is this GOD good then? Hmm?

(Student was silent )

Professor : You can't answer, can you ? Let's start again, Young Fella. Is GOD Good?
Student : Yes.
Professor : Is Satan good ?
Student : No.
Professor : Where does Satan come from ?
Student : From . . . GOD . . .
Professor : That's right. Tell Me son, is there evil in this World?
Student : Yes.
Professor : Evil is everywhere, isn't it ? And GOD did make everything. Correct?
Student : Yes.
Professor : So who created evil ?

(Student did not answer)

Professor : Is there Sickness? Immorality? Hatred? Ugliness?
All these terrible things exist in the World, don't they?
Student : Yes, sir.
Professor : So, who Created them ?

(Student had no answer)

Professor : Science says you have 5 Senses you use to Identify and Observe the World around you. Tell me, son . . . Have you ever Seen GOD?
Student : No, sir.
Professor : Tell us if you have ever Heard your GOD?
Student : No , sir.
Professor : Have you ever Felt your GOD, Tasted your GOD, Smelt your GOD? Have you ever had any Sensory Perception of GOD for that matter?
Student : No, sir. I'm afraid I haven't.
Professor : Yet you still Believe in HIM?
Student : Yes.
Professor : According to Empirical, Testable, Demonstrable Protocol, Science says your GOD doesn't exist. What do you say to that, son?
Student : Nothing. I only have my Faith.
Professor : Yes,Faith. And that is the problem Science has.
Student : Professor, is there such a thing as Heat?
Professor : Yes.
Student : And is there such a thing as Cold?
Professor : Yes.
Student : No, sir. There isn't.

(The Lecture Theatre became very quiet with this turn of events )

Student : Sir, you can have Lots of Heat, even More Heat, Superheat, Mega Heat, White Heat,
a Little Heat or No Heat. But we don't have anything called Cold.
We can hit 458 Degrees below Zero which is No Heat, but we can't go

any further after that. There is no such thing as Cold.
Cold is only a Word we use to describe the Absence of Heat.
We cannot Measure Cold. Heat is Energy.
Cold is Not the Opposite of Heat, sir, just the Absence of it.

(There was Pin-Drop Silence in the Lecture Theatre )

Student : What about Darkness, Professor? Is there such a thing as Darkness?
Professor : Yes. What is Night if there isn't Darkness?
Student : You're wrong again, sir.
Darkness is the Absence of Something
You can have Low Light, Normal Light, Bright Light, Flashing Light . . .
But if you have No Light constantly, you have nothing and its called

Darkness, isn't it?
In reality, Darkness isn't.
If it is, were you would be able to make Darkness Darker, wouldn't you?
Professor : So what is the point you are making, Young Man ?
Student : Sir, my point is your Philosophical Premise is flawed.
Professor : Flawed ? Can you explain how?
Student : Sir, you are working on the Premise of Duality.
You argue there is Life and then there is Death, a Good GOD

and a Bad GOD.
You are viewing the Concept of GOD as something finite, something

we can measure.
Sir, Science can't even explain a Thought.
It uses Electricity and Magnetism, but has never seen, much less fully

understood either one.
To view Death as the Opposite of Life is to be ignorant of the fact that
Death cannot exist as a Substantive Thing.
Death is Not the Opposite of Life: just the Absence of it
Now tell me, Professor, do you teach your Students that they evolved from a Monkey?
Professor : If you are referring to the Natural Evolutionary Process, yes, of course, I do.
Student : Have you ever observed Evolution with your own eyes, sir?

(The Professor shook his head with a Smile, beginning to realize where the Argument was going )

Student : Since no one has ever observed the Process of Evolution at work and
Cannot even prove that this Process is an On-Going Endeavor,
Are you not teaching your Opinion, sir?
Are you not a Scientist but a Preacher?

(The Class was in Uproar )

Student : Is there anyone in the Class who has ever seen the Professor's Brain?

(The Class broke out into Laughter )

Student : Is there anyone here who has ever heard the Professor's Brain,

Felt it, touched or Smelt it? . . .
No one appears to have done so.
So, according to the Established Rules of Empirical, Stable,

Demonstrable Protocol,
Science says that You have No Brain, sir.
With all due respect, sir, how do we then Trust your Lectures, sir?

(The Room was Silent. The Professor stared at the Student, his face unfathomable)

Professor : I guess you'll have to take them on Faith, son.
Student : That is it sir . . . Exactly !
The Link between Man & GOD is FAITH.
That is all that Keeps Things Alive and Moving.


That student was Albert Einstein.

So, I am told.

 

 

 

Regards & Thanks


Vivek Kumar
(Om Investments)
Sushil Financial Services Pvt. Ltd
Dhanbad
9234665651,9431726709

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RE: [Technical-Investor] Poll results for Technical-Investor

 

Hi
Can you read anything abt the general behaviour from this poll???

kumar



From: Technical-Investor@yahoogroups.com
To: Technical-Investor@yahoogroups.com
Date: Fri, 5 Feb 2010 12:40:36 +0000
Subject: [Technical-Investor] Poll results for Technical-Investor

 

The following Technical-Investor poll is now closed. Here are the
final results:

POLL QUESTION: What do you feel Miss Nifty will do in 2010.

Only 66 members voted in the last poll, out of 5004!
Pathetic, I must admit...please participate whole-heartedly;
No idea - is not a reason - either your charts, or your heart
MUST be saying something,
SO - just select one option.

CHOICES AND RESULTS
- Cross all time high 6357, 37 votes, 32.46%
- Go below 2008 low 2252, 4 votes, 3.51%
- Both of the above, 5 votes, 4.39%
- None of the above - an year of consolidation, 68 votes, 59.65%

INDIVIDUAL VOTES
- Cross all time high 6357
- lakshramnaath@yahoo.co.in
- sanvac2003@yahoo.co.in
- ram_arti@verizon.net
- kumar40@hotmail.com
- ksundarj@yahoo.com
- prash454.ta@gmail.com
- dinkar_mehta@yahoo.com
- shekarjoga@gmail.com
- cnbondre@yahoo.com
- stocks.murtaza@gmail.com
- trends_bullish@yahoo.com
- anoop_y2k74@yahoo.com
- bullinveztor@gmail.com
- yoursamgupta@yahoo.co.in
- deekonda.ravi@yahoo.com
- vishwaabivridhi@yahoo.co.in
- girish.krishnamurthy@gmail.com
- djfreaky2@gmail.com
- wfox1@ymail.com
- amanstk@yahoo.com
- tcdaund@yahoo.com
- cd.sagar@gmail.com
- sandeepshekhar@gmail.com
- sharadlohia@gmail.com
- sunil.kini@yahoo.co.in
- a_gilotra@yahoo.com
- dninar@yahoo.com
- saladi_elr2@yahoo.com
- sssc27@gmail.com
- deepakpatade@yahoo.com
- capitavp@yahoo.co.uk
- ravisudhakar66@yahoo.co.in
- osp2osp@gmail.com
- vichooo_1999@yahoo.com
- akhiljain79@gmail.com
- pgnayak2005@gmail.com
- intradaytargets@yahoo.co.uk
- Go below 2008 low 2252
- pbalaji2k@hotmail.com
- mnkalai_2000@yahoo.com
- patel.rak@gmail.com
- nehamit@gmx.net
- Both of the above
- soundararajanpp@gmail.com
- chirag_patel5141@yahoo.co.in
- snipertrader@gmail.com
- chintan_patel@fwuk.fwc.com
- atchutarao_k@yahoo.com
- None of the above - an year of consolidation
- bees2365@yahoo.co.in
- rpmodi@hotmail.com
- nareshbahrain@gmail.com
- mehtajayesh1971@gmail.com
- xytise@yahoo.co.in
- tkrajnambiar@yahoo.co.in
- vineetb@irevna.com
- asavari15@hotmail.com
- vathsacn@gmail.com
- rushabhdev_comd@yahoo.co.in
- samirmehta001@yahoo.co.in
- sssarihan@yahoo.com
- sanjibm98@gmail.com
- sabbinenin@gmail.com
- mehtajayprakash@yahoo.com
- yogeshyb@yahoo.com
- tssundar89@yahoo.com
- rjuneja123@gmail.com
- ayeshafakhruddin@yahoo.co.in
- rupalsindhvad@yahoo.co.in
- darshan_dodhia@yahoo.co.in
- abarbaruah@yahoo.com
- karpaka@gmail.com
- ppsiva@yahoo.com
- bhavesh_gelani@yahoo.com
- m.thakkar@decisioncraft.com
- nareshch@live.in
- deepen27@yahoo.com
- sureshbhagtani@yahoo.com
- ashrafvahora@gmail.com
- jayakrish2001@yahoo.com
- aks_associate@yahoo.com
- ekamber@gmail.com
- fjl24@yahoo.com
- sunjives@yahoo.com
- raj_velayudhan@yahoo.com
- elindc_2000@yahoo.com
- suresh.thotakura@gmail.com
- nagarajanl@gmail.com
- galrani@gmail.com
- rishi_20042003@yahoo.com
- narinder.rana@gmail.com
- jtsgroups@yahoo.com
- sriganeshh@yahoo.com
- kkpatel1924@gmail.com
- harikishore@gmail.com
- avi.chandra6@gmail.com
- sunofdelhi@gmail.com
- ganesh2cbe@ymail.com
- kunalfortrading@gmail.com
- reachSajeeth@Gmail.Com
- t_rajamohan@yahoo.com
- xfengx_@hotmail.com
- satiishh@yahoo.com
- tomdevasia@hotmail.com
- ndssubscriber@gmail.com
- sushilbhaya@yahoo.co.in
- diganta.mukhopadhyay@yahoo.com
- ap19632000@yahoo.com
- chauhanpramit@yahoo.co.in
- abhijit.selukar@gmail.com
- vndevendiran@gmail.com
- paraddesh@yahoo.co.in
- rythmicrunner@yahoo.com
- amitabh_shankar@yahoo.co.in
- joshi.mandar@yahoo.com
- nagarajansms@gmail.com
- rsmaurya_2003@yahoo.co.in

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[Technical-Investor] US data to Watch on Next Week

 

rgds
Jignesh Parekh


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[Technical-Investor] dow - 2wards 9900

 

 
even after good jboless data
 
dow is - 75 @ 10.20  hours
 
can we predict of a catastrophe which is going to unfold.
 
regards
 
yOGI


The INTERNET now has a personality. YOURS! See your Yahoo! Homepage.

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Re: [sharetrading] US

 

Why our market is dependent on US, Why our markets  is not consider the results so far?


From: A P Abraham <abrahamap@airtelmail.in>
To: sharetrading@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Fri, 5 February, 2010 10:16:36 PM
Subject: [sharetrading] US

 

US has crashed further and needs lot of work to be done to reverse….

Anyway below 9900 – NO HOPE as of now

 

Abe



The INTERNET now has a personality. YOURS! See your Yahoo! Homepage.

__._,_.___
Please use your discretion before acting on the ideas expressed in the group.
Happy Trading,
United we grow!!!
.

__,_._,___

[sharetrading] US

 

US has crashed further and needs lot of work to be done to reverse….

Anyway below 9900 – NO HOPE as of now

 

Abe

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Please use your discretion before acting on the ideas expressed in the group.
Happy Trading,
United we grow!!!
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Investor's Eye: Update - Patels Airtemp (Price target revised to Rs101); Cement (Pricing hits sector performance); Special - Q3FY2010 Pharma review


Sharekhan Investor's Eye
Investor's Eye
[February 05, 2010] 
Summary of Contents

STOCK UPDATE

Patels Airtemp India 
Cluster: Emerging Star
Recommendation: Buy 
Price target: Rs101
Current market price: Rs89

Price target revised to Rs101

Result highlights

  • Patels Airtemp?s net sales in Q3FY2010 increased by 14.4% year on year (yoy) to Rs15.4 crore backed by robust execution of its order book. The operating performance surprised positively with the operating profit margin (OPM) expanding by 150 basis points yoy to 23.8% in the quarter from 22.3% in the corresponding quarter of the last year. This was mainly due to lower raw material cost as percent of sale in the quarter. Consequently, the operating profit for the quarter rose by 22.2% yoy to Rs3.7 crore. 
  • The interest cost increased to Rs0.26 crore and the depreciation charge increased to Rs0.23 crore in the quarter. Driven by strong operating performance, the net profit came in at Rs2.1crore, a 19.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. During M9FY2010 the top line grew by 4.9% yoy with the profit after tax (PAT) growing by 18.2% yoy. 
  • The order book in the quarter stood at Rs50 crore, up from Rs46 crore at the end of Q2FY2010. Sectors such as power continue to do well and drive the company?s growth and the investments in oil & gas and refinery sectors, which are picking pace gradually, are also likely to further benefit the company. Add to this the outlook for the fertiliser sector, which remains bright on huge investments outlined by the Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative in Gujarat. The companies like Patels Airtemp are also likely to benefit from the installation of about 300 new compressed natural gas stations in Gujarat. 
  • In view of M9FY2010 results, we have revised our estimates and expect the company to post an earnings per share (EPS) of Rs16.5 and Rs18.6 in FY2010 and FY2011 respectively. We are also introducing our FY2012 estimates and expect an EPS of Rs21.8 in the fiscal.
  • At the current market price the stock is available at 4.8x FY2011E earnings and 4.1x FY2012E earnings. Given its low debt to equity ratio of 0.2:1 and a healthy return on net worth of 31.5%, the valuation appears to be fairly attractive. We are rolling over our target multiple of 5x to the average of FY2011 and FY2012 earnings estimates. Hence, we are revising our price target to Rs101 and maintain Buy recommendation on the stock.

SECTOR UPDATE

Cement

Pricing hits sector performance

  • In Q3FY2010 the domestic cement industry faced severe pressure on earnings manily on account of higher than expected pressure on realisation and increase in input costs like freight cost due to increase in lead distance and raw material cost. Recently, two leading players of the domestic cement industry namely ACC and Ambuja Cement having pan India operations have posted their Q4CY2009 results which were below street expectations. 
  • In terms of volume growth, the industry has posted year to date (YTD) growth of 12.6% and a growth of 11.6% year on year (yoy) for Q3FY2010. Region-wise, the southern region witnessed lacklustre volume growth on account of floods and political uncertanity in Andhra Pradesh due to Telangana issue. The demand in other regions like north, east and central was however impressive. In case of ACC and Ambuja Cement inspite of having pan India operations, the volume growth remains muted (4.1% and 4.7% yoy respectively for Q4CY2009) on account of limited capacity adition during the last one year.
  • On the realisation front, cement prices have started declining across the county from August/September 2009 with the same coming under severe pressure in the southern and western regions. In Hyderabad, cement prices dropped to as low as Rs130 per bag, which was around its 15-year low. In Mumbai, prices dipped to Rs230 per bag and in Kolkata it dropped to Rs250 per bag. However, the prices have started moving up from November 2009 on account of supply shortage due to logistic problems and in December and January on improved demand. The recent price hike accounts for approximately 50% of the recovery in the price drop. During Q3FY2010, the south-based companies like India Cement and Madras Cement posted sharp correction in their realisation compared to the north- and east-based companies. In case of ACC and Ambuja Cement the average realisation fell by 8.8% and 6.1% respectively on a sequential basis. 
  • After significant correction (touching a low of US$55 per tonne), imported coal prices have started moving upward touching a high of US$91 per tonne in the beginning of January and currently quoting at US$83.4. This upward price movement is likely to adversely impact the earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBDITA) margin of domestic cement makers especially those which depend on imported coal like UltraTech Cement, Ambuja Cement and India Cement.
  • The management of ACC and Ambuja Cement holds the view that the domestic cement industry is likely to post a volume growth of 9-10% in the coming year on account of initiatives taken by the government to boost infrastructure and due to robust rural consumption. However, on stabilisation of new capacity addition, the supply is expected to surpass incremental demand, which will create pressure on utilisation and consequently on prices. In addition to pressure on prices, the EBDITA of cement makers is likely to be further hit by the recent increase in the price of imported coal.

SHAREKHAN SPECIAL

Q3FY2010 Pharma earnings review 

Most pharmaceutical companies under Sharekhan?s coverage reported a strong Q3FY2010 led by robust performance in the domestic formulation business and no major extra-ordinary items (limited foreign exchange losses and no more one-offs) during the quarter. The domestic formulation business resumed normalcy in this quarter and the buoyant growth witnessed in the quarter was on a low base of the corresponding quarter of the last year (Q3FY2009). We expect a similar trend in Q4FY2010 as well as FY2011 due to low base in FY2010 across the board. Exports however were grappled with challenging geographies like Russia and Germany, the US approvals at a slower rate and intensifying competition (Lupin, Ipca Laboratories [Ipca], Cadila Healthcare [Cadila] and Torrent Pharmaceuticals [Torrent] reported strong growth in international formulation business). We expect a revival in the export formulation business on the back of increased focus on branded and niche products and huge abbreviated new drug application (ANDA) pipeline (for Sun Pharmaceutical Industries [Sun Pharma], Lupin and Glenmark Pharmaceuticals [Glenmark]) in FY2011. The operating margins of all the pharmaceutical companies under Sharekhan?s coverage have been pretty strong led by better product mix (improved gross margins) as well as favourable currency (Sun Pharma and Glenmark suffered due to high base of the last year, but have shown strong sequential growth). The mid-caps pharma companies continue to outperform with exceptionally strong Q3. Our result picks?Cadila, Lupin and Opto Circuits delivered a strong growth as compared to their peers. Torrent and Lupin remain our top picks as earning upgrades and robust growth visibility drive their performance.  


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Regards,
The Sharekhan Research Team
myaccount@sharekhan.com 

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