Sensex

Saturday, September 22, 2007

$$ DreamGains !! $$ FW: Sharekhan Post-Market Report dated September 21, 2007

 

 

From: The Sharekhan Research Team [mailto:marketwatch@research.sharekhan.com]
Sent: 21 September 2007 15:27
To: The Sharekhan Research Team
Subject: Sharekhan Post-Market Report dated September 21, 2007

 

 

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September 21, 2007

 

Index Performance

Index

Sensex

Nifty

Open

16,352.32

4,752.95

High

16,616.84

4,855.70

Low

16,308.09

4,733.70

Today's Cls

16,564.23

4,837.55

Prev Cls

16,347.95

4,747.55

Change

216.28

90.00

% Change

1.32

1.90

 

Market Indicators

Top Movers (Group A)

Company

Price 
(Rs)

%
chg

Gainers

RPL

154.95

11.60

Jindal Steel

5,371.20

9.66

GMDC

1,090.75

8.56

Escorts

119.95

7.58

Chambal Fertilisers

53.85

6.00

Losers

Torrent Pharma

184.20

-6.00

Britannia

1,479.95

-3.84

EIH

107.95

-3.53

Nestle

1,245.00

-3.51

Tata Tea

784.25

-2.54

Market Statistics

-

BSE

NSE

Advances

1,166

491

Declines

1,629

645

Unchanged

48

21

Volume(Nos)

66.06cr

101.31cr

 Market Commentary 

Market continues its record rally

Strong optimism in heavyweights, oil and technology stocks lift the Sensex to a record high of 16,617.

Rising crude oil prices and impending nuclear issue between the UPA government and CPI(M) ruled the investor’s sentiment in the early trades, and the Sensex  

 

witnessed a sharp volatility for better part of the session. Negative global cues led the Sensex to open flat, but heavy buying in oil, auto and cement stock propelled the Sensex to the its all-time high of 16,617. The wholesale price index (WPI) rose to 3.32% for the week ended September 8 which was lower than the previous week's increase of 3.52%. The lower WPI also helped the market sentiment to remain positive. The Sensex slipped marginally towards the close and ended the session with a gain of 1.32%, up 216 points at 16,564. The Nifty moved up by 1.90%, up 90 points to close at 4,838.

Surprisingly the breadth of the market was negative. Of the 2,843 stocks traded on the BSE, 1,629 stocks declined, 1,166 stocks advanced and 48 stocks ended unchanged. Among the sectoral indices, the BSE Oil & Gas index flared up by 3.55% followed by the BSE Teck index (up 1.62%), the BSE Realty index (up 1.54%), the BSE PSU index (up 1.28%) and the BSE Auto index (up 1.10%). However, the BSE FMCG index, the BSE HC index and the BSE CD index ended in the negative territory. 

Movers & Shakers

  • ICRA closed in the green after its subsidiary ICRA Online launched ICRA Mpower, a web-based platform for mutual fund distributors and financial advisors.
  • Tezpore Tea hit the upper circuit on entering an agreement with Dalmia Tea to sell one of company's tea estate.


Most of the index stocks ended at higher levels. Reliance Industries was the day's star performer and shot up by 3.75% at Rs2,274. Among the other major gainers, Bharti Airtel surged 3.08% at Rs918, SBI vaulted by 2.78% at Rs1,808, Reliance Communication spurted 2.28% at Rs579, Reliance Energy jumped by 2.22% at Rs1,009, Grasim scaled up by 2.20% at Rs3,447, HUL advanced by 2.19% at Rs219, Maruti Udyog added 2.14% at Rs930 and ONGC rose 1.98% at Rs923. Among the laggards ITC slumped by 1.60% at Rs191, Hindalco dropped 1.36% at Rs160, while, Cipla, NTPC, Satyam Computers, Ranbaxy, ACC, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Bajaj Auto slipped marginally.

Oil stocks were in limelight today. Reliance Petro vaulted by 11.60% at Rs155, Gail India soared 3.67% at Rs350, Cairns India added 1.83% at Rs178 and IOC advanced 1.56% at Rs406.

Over 9.52 crore Reliance Natural Resources shares changed hands on the BSE followed by Ambuja Cement (7.05 crore shares), Tata Teleservices (3.50 crore shares), Reliance Petroleum (2.89 crore shares) and IFCI (2.05 crore shares).

Value wise, Ambuja Cement registered a turnover of Rs1,081 crore on the BSE followed by Reliance Natural Resources (Rs673 crore), Reliance Petroleum (Rs437 crore), Reliance Industries (Rs194 crore) and IFCI (Rs170 crore).

European Indices at 16:25 IST on 21-09-2007

Index

Level

Change (pts)

Change (%)

FTSE 100

6463.60

34.60

0.54

CAC 40 Index

5696.03

7.27

0.13

DAX Index

7750.02

14.93

0.19

Asian Indices at close on 21-09-2007

Index

Level

Change (pts)

Change (%)

Nikkei 225

16312.61

-101.18

-0.62

Hang Seng

25843.78

142.65

0.56

Kospi Index

1919.26

10.29

0.54

Straits Times

3542.22

-10.24

-0.29

Jakarta Composite Index

2335.49

30.86

1.34

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$$ DreamGains !! $$ Q2FY2008 Earnings Preview : Sector Wise & Specific Companies

 

Sharekhan Special
[September 21, 2007] Please see the attachment for details

Sharekhan
www.sharekhan.com

Summary of Contents

 SHAREKHAN SPECIAL

Q2FY2008 earnings preview

Earnings of Sensex companies to grow by 20% yoy

Key points

  • The earnings of the Sensex' companies excluding oil companies and adjusted for one-time items are likely to grow by 20% year on year (yoy) and remain stable quarter on quarter in Q2FY2008. 
  • In Q1FY2008 we had seen that around 10% of the reported earnings had come from foreign exchange (forex) gains. Keeping the current strong uptrend of the rupee in mind, we may see companies reporting another 3-5% of one-time forex gains during the quarter. This would be in contrast to the initial expectations of forex losses in Q2FY2008, as the rupee had started to decline when our markets were facing the threat of large-scale withdrawal from foreign institutional investors (FIIs). After the political turmoil and global subprime saga unfolded in end July and most part of August 2007 there were fears that the FIIs would pull out serious money from the market.
  • The Q2FY2008 earnings of the Sensex are going to be driven by companies from the telecom, information technology (IT) and banking sectors. 
  • The backdrop of Q2FY2008 performance is not very encouraging with a lower export growth in rupee terms, a decline in the industrial output, deceleration in manufacturing revenues and a drop in automobile sales. All these leading indicators have been discussed in detail later. 
  • Latest corporate tax collection growth rate for the period April to September 15, 2007 has slowed down to 25% from 49% reported for the period April to August 2007 (the first five months in FY2008). This translates into a 11% yoy growth in corporate tax collections for the first fortnight of September which includes the second installment of advance tax payments for corporates. We need to look at full tax collections for the month as the collections could have been influenced by the banking holiday falling on September 15, 2007 and the period of advance tax payment being extended to September 17, 2007. 
  • Considering that all the leading indicators are pointing towards a slowdown, would the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) take cognisance of the matter and make the interest rate environment more conducive for growth? We feel the RBI is more likely to adopt a neutral stance in its next quarterly policy review meet (October end) before it starts easing its monetary stance. However the interest rates may start to come down slowly if the credit growth doesn't pick up and deposits continue to grow ahead of advances. This should set the stage for a recovery in key sectors like housing and automobiles with the onset of the festive season in the second half of the current fiscal.

Regards,
The Sharekhan Research Team

myaccount@sharekhan.com

 

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