Sensex

Monday, September 20, 2010

**[investwise]** SENSEX HITS 20000, Nifty HITS 6000

 

SENSEX HITS 20000, Nifty HITS 6000

Equity benchmarks crossed another landmarks today on the back of strong inflow of funds from foreign institutional investors (FIIs)- the Nifty touched 6000 mark and the Sensex hit 20000 level for the first time since January 17, 2008.


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Energy Dev - Board to consider Dividend
Energy Development Company Ltd has informed BSE that a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Company will be held on September 28, 2010, inter alia, to consider:
1. Annual Accounts of the Company for the year ended on March 31, 2010. ...

ELLENBARRIE - Board recommends Dividend
Ellenbarrie Industrial Gases Ltd has now informed BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on September 04, 2010, recommended dividend at 5% of Share Capital and noted that payment of Dividend will attract Dividend Tax Rs. 5,56,313. The proposed Dividend amounted to Rs. 32,73,390.

Lifeline Drugs - Board recommends Dividend
Lifeline Drugs & Pharma Ltd has now informed BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on May 29, 2010, inter alia, have recommended Dividend @ 10% i.e. Re. 1/- per share. However, declaration of dividend will be subject to approval of shareholders at the ensuing Annual General Meeting.

Mediaone Global - Board recommends Dividend 
Mediaone Global Entertainment Ltd has informed BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on September 15, 2010, inter alia, has recommended a dividend of (8% on equity capital) i.e. Rs. 0.80 per share fort the FY 2009-2010.

ISMT - Board to consider Dividend
ISMT Ltd has informed BSE that a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Company will be held on September 28, 2010, inter alia, to consider, the Audited Financial Results for the Year ended March 31, 2010 and to recommend dividend if any for the year 2009-10.

**[investwise]** South Indian Bank-PE 10, P/BV-2; It's peers are at PE 35, P/BV 5

 

1  India Capital Fund Ltd 10,250,000  9.07 
2  Morgan Stanley Mauritius Company Ltd 5,474,727  4.84 
3  FID Funds (Mauritius) Ltd 4,694,866  4.15 
4  JM Financial Trustee Company Pvt Ltd 4,449,686  3.94 
5  Acacia Partners LP 3,741,482  3.31 
6  Argonaut Ventures 3,695,484  3.27 
7  Life Insurance Corporation of India 3,467,543  3.07 
8  India Institutional Fund Ltd 3,250,000  2.88 
9  India Capital Opportunities 1 Ltd 3,100,000  2.74 
10  Unit Trust Of India Investment Advisory Services 3,062,500  2.71 
11  Union Bank of India 2,020,564  1.79 
12  Jasvant A Parikh 1,955,317  1.73 
13  Federal Bank Ltd 1,625,000  1.44 
14  Chirag Parikh 1,208,755  1.07 
15  ACACIA Institutional Partners LP 1,162,790  1.03 
 Total 53,158,714  47.04


Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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**[investwise]** Ken Fisher: Good To Be A Bull

 

The post-April stock market correction has been the most textbook perfect I've seen since the one in 1998. That one fed on the Asian contagion, the Russian ruble crisis and the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund freak-out.
 
Like that one, this year's minicrash had been pushed along by several scary stories that turned out to be nonsense but were nonetheless impossible to dispel. The biggest was the PIIGS hysteria--the idea that Greece was going to go bust and take down Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain with it.
 
But all five have effectively completed their 2010 financings without incident. Only Greece took any bailout money at all. The other four raised all they needed and more in normal markets on heavily oversubscribed demand--at rates not far from those on U.S. and German government paper.
 
Have you ever noticed that the media never, ever confess, "We were wrong to scare you to death"?
 
We still have lingering fears about a double-dip recession. That's big and scary and hard to disprove. But the fact is that the big global economies are intertwined. So we're going to get another recession only if the whole world does. Now try to name two global double-dip recessions in the past century. You would be hard pressed to cite one. (Many think 1937 qualifies, but they're wrong. GDP grew for three straight years, and the market was up 324% since 1932.) I know you can't find two.
 
Why do so many fear something that has pretty much never happened? Because we always do that early in a big bull market after a huge bear market. At some later point false fears are seen as that. At that point the rebound will resume.
 
A double-dip decline in the economy is simply inconsistent with the good news we're getting on the corporate earnings front. As I write, 459 of the S&P 500 firms have reported second-quarter profits, with 75% exceeding expectations, 9% meeting them and only 16% falling short. I expect $82 for earnings this year (after writeoffs) on this index. At a recent 1085 the index is trading at 13 times current-year earnings.
 
The second quarter of 2010 should be the third quarter in a row when earnings growth exceeds 30%. The last time that happened was 1983. Double-dip is not in the cards.
 
Investors also fear a jobless recovery. They're forgetting that jobs don't create growth. Growth creates jobs. The demonstrable sales and earnings growth tells you things will be fine. Get ready for this bull market's second leg.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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**[investwise]** KPMG on Entertainment And Affordable Housing [3 Attachments]

 
[Attachment(s) from Maverick included below]

 
 
FYI

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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Attachment(s) from Maverick

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**[investwise]** FIIs Lap Up India's Financial Sector

 

20-Sep-10 DHANBANK Dhanlaxmi Bank Limited THE MASTER TRUST BANK OF JAPAN LTD HSBC INDIA EQUITY MOTHER BUY 1670000 181.56
20-Sep-10 IFCI IFCI Ltd. WISDOMTREE TRUST A/C WISDOM TREE INDIA INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO BUY 3726449 61.86
20-Sep-10 MAGMA Magma Fincorp Limited NORDEA BANK S.A. A/C NORDEA 1 SICAV -IT FUND BUY 679525 80.17


Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
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**[investwise]** John Stepek: Gold Should Trade At $ 1500/oz By March 2011

 

This is not a free market

The European Central Bank (ECB) reportedly ended up having to intervene in the bond market on Friday, after Irish bond yields spiked (in other words, investors suddenly developed an even more pronounced aversion to lending the Irish government money).

The source of the sudden spasm of fear? A Barclays Capital research note suggesting that Ireland might eventually have to get "financial assistance from the EU-IMF" if there were "unexpected losses in the financial sector".

We've come to something when a piece of analyst research is all it takes to rock confidence in a developed world sovereign bond market. Analysts churn this sort of stuff out every day. And it was hardly relentlessly damning. A healthy market could take this sort of thing on the chin.

Instead, we had the IMF rushing to deny that the country was in trouble. Or at least, any more trouble than it's already in: "we do not envision that IMF financing will be needed".

And of course, we had the ECB stepping in to the bond market to prop prices up. The Financial Times report on the purchase says that "traders said the intervention by the ECB was small - in the tens of millions of euros", but that's not really the point. After all, if prices had fallen harder, we can only assume that the ECB would have upped its purchases accordingly.

The point is, it's not a free market. Whether or not you think that's a bad thing (I think it's bad, but lots of people seem to be quite happy for governments to be embedding themselves in the markets) is neither here nor there. What is for sure, is that you can't take a view on these markets without trying to incorporate what central banks might do next. That political dimension has always existed. But now it takes precedence over any economic considerations, which makes 'investing' a gamble.

As anonymous blogger 'Tyler Durden' puts it on the Zero Hedge website, we know that central banks are openly piling into currency and bond markets every day. Maybe it's only a matter of time before we find them doing the same to equity markets. Markets "have now become merely a venue for global central banks to conduct domestic policy, and have lost all traditional capital formation and forward looking properties."

Why gold is hard for governments to manipulate

This is why people are buying gold. The great thing about gold is that it's a pretty hard market for governments to manipulate. Before I get a flood of angry comments from those who believe the market is being suppressed, let me explain.

Governments want most asset prices to stay high. If you want the price of things like houses and bank debt and government debt to stay high, then there's an easy solution - print money and buy them. It's not very healthy in the long run, but if you're not too worried about that, then it's easy to prop prices up.

Trouble is, governments don't want high gold prices. They'd rather the gold price stayed low. A high gold price is a clear warning that paper currencies - which are ultimately just government-backed promises - are losing their value.

But suppressing the gold price clearly isn't easy to do, as the past ten years demonstrate. Even if there is a grand cartel trying to keep the yellow metal down, they're not doing a very good job of it.

When Gordon Brown flogged off Britain's gold roughly ten years ago, the price hit a bottom. But now, with gold roughly five times as expensive, if Britain decided to sell the rest, I suspect we'd have a queue of willing buyers.

The fact is, the only way for central bankers to bring the gold bull market to an end, is the honest way. They have to raise interest rates above the rate of inflation, and restore the value of their paper currencies. People have to be convinced once again that paper currencies offer a better return on their savings than gold does.

Call me cynical, but I can't see this happening any time in the near future.

How high can gold go?

So how high could gold go? I'm not going to talk about where it's going to be next week or next month - I'll leave that to my colleague Dominic Frisby. And when any asset class hits fresh highs, you've always got to be aware of the potential for a correction. But Tim Price, who writes our Price Report newsletter, last week put out an interesting piece about the Dow Jones / gold price ratio. Take a look at the chart below, which shows the value of the Dow Jones index divided by the gold price.
 


image

 
As you can see, says Tim: "At the bottom of previous equity bear markets / gold bull markets, the Dow / gold ratio has reached 2.1 (c. 1904); 2.0 (c. 1932); 3.1 (c. 1975) and 1.0 (c. 1981). It currently sits at around 8.3. The trillion dollar question is: how low can it go?"

Tim's view is that the most likely way for the ratio to bottom out, is for "gold prices to continue to rally; equity markets to continue to fall; and both markets meet each other somewhere in the middle."

If you're looking to put a price on it, then James Ferguson (by no means a 'gold bug') told readers of his Model Investor newsletter last week that judging by the technical picture at least, "the realistic three to six month target has to be above $1,500." I have to say, that sounds a pretty punchy call to me. But the point is - gold is still a 'buy' here.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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**[investwise]** CCL Products-Target Rs 750 [1 Attachment]

 
[Attachment(s) from Maverick included below]

FYI

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
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Attachment(s) from Maverick

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**[investwise]** IndusInd Bank-Q1 Presentation [1 Attachment]

 
[Attachment(s) from Maverick included below]

FYI

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
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Attachment(s) from Maverick

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**[investwise]** Yes Bank-SBI Caps puts a target of Rs 386

 

We recently met Yes Bank management to understand the bank's business strategy for the next five years – called Version 2.0 by the bank and the business goals involving a shorter, medium term cycle. The goals, which are defined very objectively are ambitious and shall be path breaking for the new generation bank if fully realised.
 
The Version 2.0 targets shall in our opinion test the bank's execution capabilities and business acumen in more challenging areas like the CASA liabilities. We have factored in structural changes to Yes Bank's balance sheet over next two years in terms of CASA, retail liabilities, branch franchise, and asset mix.
 

While the bank's share already enjoys premium valuations despite the predominantly wholesale nature of the bank, we believe the evolving retail side can provide a further fillip to the valuation multiples. We maintain a 'buy' and revise price target to Rs.386 or 3x FY12E ABV Rs.128.5, an upside of 18.4% from current levels.

 

 Key Meeting Takeaways

 

NIM's correlated to the rate cycle, can sustain, re-pricing risks notwithstanding

 

There shall be natural leads and lags in liability and asset re-pricing but we expect Yes Bank to 1) rollover maturing deposits at competitive rates and, 2) have flexibility to manage loan yields in order to maintain NIM's. We believe Yes Bank can positively surprise the dominant investor apprehension on the re-pricing risks. We estimate FY11E NIM's at 2.8% and FY12E NIM's at 2.6% compared to the average 2.7% FY05-FY10.
 

Fast track front office rollouts for better sustainability of business momentum

 

Yes Bank plans to average 150 branches / year till FY15 to take its network to 750 branches compared to ~24 branches / year since its inception. This has been a much desired requisite from a business growth perspective and therefore brings better visibility to the bank's balance sheet expansion. We estimate a 35.4% CAGR in balance sheet FY10-FY12E and CASA improvement of ~216bps every year FY11E-FY12E.
 

Retail diversity building in balance sheet but should become more tangible beginning FY12E

 

Our assumptions of ~430bps CASA expansion over FY11E-FY12E are relatively modest compared to the bank's target of 600bps/year and so are the estimates on retail assets. But with processes defined and business hubs in place, we expect the retail diversity in assets and liabilities to expand more rapidly post FY12E.
 
 Valuation multiples carry an upward bias compared to historical medians
 

Yes Bank has historically traded in a broad P/ABV and P/E band with one year rolling forward multiples peaking at 5.34x and 30.2x respectively. The median valuations since listing have been 2.64x and 18.13x respectively. We believe the valuation premium can justifiably improve to capture the structural changes in balance sheet and business character. Maintain 'buy' with 1-year price target Rs.386 or 3.0x FY12E ABV Rs.128.5.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
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**[investwise]** Kansai Nerolac-90 Glorious Years In India; Stock may head to Rs 1200 [3 Attachments]

 
[Attachment(s) from Maverick included below]

Kansai Nerolac-90 Years In India

 

Announces a massive Rs 400 crore investment at Hosur and expansion of the Bawal Unit. With it's core strength of Automotive paints and coatings and leadership in industrial paints and coatings, Kansai is proud to announce that every 7 out of 10 cars in India are painted with the colours of Kansai Nerolac.

 

With a new advertising thrust lead by Shahrukh Khan, the corporate is now targeting key competitors in the residential decorative paints segment. So there is no reason why Kansai should not fetch a PE of 30 based on FY11e earnings, when Asian Paints gets the same PE multiple. The ensuing festive should be even stronger than the first half of 2011.

 

 

The picture of paint demand remains very positive over the long term. During the quarter the company has commissioned its new facility at Hosur. Further Board has announced today additional outlay of Rs 230 crores

towards expansion of the Hosur facility. With this the total amount sanctioned by the Board for expansion is Rs. 409 crores.

 

Outlook of Indian Paint Industry

 

The size of domestic paint industry is estimated at Rs 21,000 crores as of Mar 2010. The good growth in infrastructure, core sector as well as automobile and real estate is likely to have a positive effect on the overall demand of paint for the industry.

 

About Kansai Nerolac Paints Ltd

 

Kansai Nerolac Paints has been at the forefront of paint manufacturing for more than 89 years pioneering a wide spectrum of quality paints. Kansai Nerolac is the second largest paint company in India and is the leader in Industrial segment, having a turnover of over Rs 1972 crores.

 

The company has five strategically located manufacturing units all over India

and a strong dealer network across the country. The company manufactures a diversified range of products ranging from decorative paints coatings for homes, offices, hospitals and hotels to sophisticated industrial coatings for most of the industries.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
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Attachment(s) from Maverick

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