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T
I
M
E
S
A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION
VOL. XVII No. 18
Monday, March 17 - 24, 2008
Pages 18
Increased participation
needed for any rally to unfold
By Sanjay R. Bhatia
The markets displayed intermediate bouts of volatility as indices moved both ways on the back of news flow. Global cues
continued to drive the market sentiment but selling pressure was witnessed at higher levels. Traders and speculators
were seen booking profits at higher levels and also building fresh short positions. Volumes recorded remained on the
higher side but the breadth of the market remained negative
during the course of last week. Incidentally, FIIs remained net
buyers in the cash segment as well as the derivatives segment.
Mutual Funds, however, remained net sellers during the week.
Global cues remained mixed. The decision of the Federal
Reserve decision to infuse $200 billion to strained credit markets
in a coordinated effort with other central banks was considered
a positive by global markets. However, this did not last long as
crude prices continued to touch new highs. In fact, the Indian
crude basket has kept pace with global crude prices to touch
103.05, which is a negative sign and will continue to add to
inflationary pressures. The domestic cues were negative as IIP
data announced was dismal and inflation continued to rise and
touched 5.11% for the week ended 1
st
March 2008. This is the
second week in a row that the inflation rate crossed the 5% mark - the target set by the Reserve Bank for this fiscal and if it
does not shown signs of abating, it is unlikely that RBI will cut interest rates in the near future.
The market sentiment is likely to remain tentative and nervous ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on Monday, March
18 and due to the truncated trading week ahead. In the meanwhile, the markets will be influenced by global markets,
crude prices and the rupee dollar and yen dollar equation, which could give rise to the Yen-trade crisis once again.
Intermediate flare-ups will be witnessed but a rise in participation and increase in volumes is needed if a sustainable rally
has to unfold.
Technically, the benchmark indices are forming a positive divergence pattern on the daily charts. However, it is still in an
early phase. A few of good days accompanied with good volumes would complete this pattern, which will give an
impetus to a rally and take the Sensex near the 16,600 level. The Sensex has support at the 15,699 and 14141 levels. On the
upside, the Sensex faces resistance at the 16,608 and 17,022 levels. The 4482 and 4074 are important support levels for the
Nifty. On the upside, the Nifty faces resistance at the 4899, and 5025 levels.
Investors should wait and watch.
8.5% growth is not a slowdown
By Fakhri H. Sabuwala
1
The Sensex has breached January 22
nd
low of 15332 and that too on fairly large volume, thanks to our growth engine
running out of steam. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) figures released mid-week neutralised the impact of the
Dow's rise the previous evening. Growth in Industrial Production was as low as 5.3% from 11.6% in January 2007. This is
mainly due to the slowdown in consumer durables and capital goods. Incorrigible optimists may, however, aver that such
a drastic fall is an aberration and that it will recover in coming months.
Despite the poor productivity numbers and the bear cartel in full swing, there is no reason to lose heart over such matters.
A sustained boom in investments with headroom for public spending accompanied by a low fiscal deficit can sustain
India growth story notwithstanding the threat of inflation and turbulence in global financial markets. At a breakfast
meeting with industry czars, the FM and his chief economic advisor appeared so upbeat and their body language
brimmed with confidence. This was in sharp contrast to the fear psyche prevailing on Dalal Street.
It is believed that Dalal Street displays the economic signals well in advance. But this time, the drastic fall and the lull
thereafter is more an outcome of the bear hammering than anything else. In the absence of robust FII inflows, rising oil
and gold prices, strengthening Yen, the losses suffered by traders in January'08 and the sowing down of global growth
makes out a sound case for the bear hug. The bear cartel is just taking advantage of this and going in for the kill. The FM
and his advisor were very candid when they admitted that impediments like high interest rates, inflationary pressures,
high oil prices, fiscal deficit balancing must be tackled effectively and the golden goose not killed by exploiting the
demand-supply gap. The importance of making social sectors like education and basic infrastructure more effective was
the need of the hour, they added. If we get this right, we could add two Singapore GDPs each year and if we don't, we
could end up adding two sub-Saharan Africas each year creating more hunger, more unemployment and more poverty.
The choice is ours. And if one can call a 8% or 8.5% growth rate a recession then a rethink of our outlook is a must.
As the Sensex has breached the January'08 low and created a double bottom pattern, it's time to take a closer look at
various investment ideas given hereunder.
Sensex: An estimated EPS of Rs.856 (FY08) and Rs.1040 (FY09) only discounts the Sensex by 18 times FY08 and 14 times
FY09 making it an aggressively bullish entry point. Historically, P/E multiples at such lows don't last long.
Maruti: Concerns over Tata's Nano are fading away and the boost in the budget to keep the demand on may give a better
multiple to its estimated EPS of Rs.54 (FY08) and Rs.63 (FY09). Heading for four digit price?
SBI: An expected EPS of Rs.1042 (FY08) and Rs.1163 (FY09). This core banking company with its immense reach is
available at a very low P/E.
HDFC: A leader in housing finance and a Sensex heavyweight is likely to report an EPS of Rs.40 (FY08) and Rs.472 (FY09).
Its growth momentum is maintained. Reverse mortgage for senior citizens is a new business to go in for. Lowering of
rates may shrink margins but maintain the bottomline on higher volumes.
Container Corporation: When container traffic is growing at 100% p.a. and with benefits granted both by the Railway
Budget and the Union Budget, this company's secular growth is underwritten. The investment in ports and port
development is yet to crystallise in stock price.
Reliance Communications: An EPS of Rs.24 (FY08) and Rs.19 (FY09), a big leap in its market share and value unlocking
in its Tower business and FLAG undersea cables makes this a great buy.
Sun Pharma: A strong franchisee network amongst all pharma players. Highest EBIDTA margin in excess of 35%, despite
sales growth of 25%, makes this scrip appear cheap. Added advantages are benefits from the Budget.
Glenmark Pharma: One of the best performing innovative pharma companies. A 33% to 42% rise in sales CAGR expected
from FY08 to FY10. This alone makes the company a must for your portfolio.
Corrective cycle or Intermediate
bear market?
TRADING ON TECHNICALS
By Hitendra Vasudeo
Last week, the Sensex opened at 15684.204 attained a weekly
high at 16683.37 and fell to a low of 15228.99. But a minor
recovery on Friday helped it to close slightly higher at
15760.52. The Sensex thereby showed a net fall of 239 points
on a week-to-week basis.
2
In the strategy for last week, we had indicated to sell at
16297-16905. The weekly high registered was at 16683 and it
closed at 15760. Traders who were able to sell on our advice
had the opportunity to benefit. Traders can monitor our
Sensex view and execute it in Nifty Futures. Nifty Future's
corresponding high to 16683 was 4997. Further, the Sensex
fell to a low of 15228 and the Nifty Future's corresponding low was 4555. Traders who were able to implement stood to
benefit.
The weekly trend is down and can turn up on rise above 17227 or if the Friday weekly close is above 16666. Weekly
resistance will be at 16683 and 17227. Weekly support will be at 15684-15000.
The Sensex has violated an important trend line on weekly and monthly charts taken from the low of 4227 and 8799 on
the log scale chart. We had indicated this last week as well. The month is yet to be completed but if the monthly close is
above the trend line and as high possible, it could salvage the market.
On a further sustained fall and close below 15228, expect the Sensex to slide further down to 14724, 14489 and 14102. The
level of 14724 is the top registered in Feb'07 and then we saw a breakout above 14724 to new heights in 2007. The same
point could offer support to the market if it tanks further. The level of 14097 is the 0.382 level of the entire rise from 2594
to 21206.
The movement on Friday brought a ray of hope. And if we can see a breakout and close above 16683 on daily charts, then
we will get a confirmation that the falling leg is complete and we could see a pull-back of the fall from 21206 to 15228 for
an up leg in an overall corrective cycle.
If the low of 15228 is not violated and a breakout above 16683 is complete, then we will complete one falling leg. In that
case, we will look for a Flat Pattern or a Double Zig-Zag pattern. In both cases, the up tick for a pull-back is likely. A Flat
pattern would have significant pull-back to exceed 19000 and if it is a Double Zig Zag, then the lower top will be below
19000 for a further violation of the bottom for a significant downfall. All this can be anticipated provided we do not fall
below the 15000 mark.
If we fall and close below 15000 mark then we will look at an extended deeper correction to the maximum extent of a fall,
which the Zig-Zag pattern will provide or we will be looking at an downside impulsive move. All the characteristics of a
downward impulsive looks to have been in-built into the fall but it depends on what one wants to look at. An overall
corrective cycle or a bear
market are characterised
or can be accounted as a
cycle within a super long
term
bull
market
spanning over years to
come.
WEEKLY UP TREND STOCKS
It is a situation of do or
die or survival of the
fittest as a significant fall
from hereon would have
severe
bearish
implications both in terms
of price and time. It looks
like we are in the process
of digging a big hole.
Therefore, recovery past
19000 can only pin up a
hope that downfall is to
be
prevented.
Any
recovery of
500-1000
points from the current
price or from lower level
must
get
past
the
monthly trend line which
is placed at 17127 by the
end of the month. It looks
to be a big task for the
market considering the
quality
of
price
movement which we
witnessed in the last few
days. Even a recovery like
the one on Friday was
Let the price move below Center Point or Level 2 and when it move back above Center Point or Level 2 then buy
with what ever low registered below Center Point or Level 2 as the stop loss. After buying if the price moves to
Level 3 or above then look to book profits as the opportunity arises. If the close is below Weekly Reversal Value
then the trend will change from Up Trend to Down Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal
of the up Trend.
Last
Center
Relative
Weekly
Up
Close
Point
Strength Reversal Trend
Scrips
Level 1 Level 2
Level 3 Level 4
Value
Date
Stop
Loss
Buy
Price
Buy
Price
Book
Profit
Book
Profit
CAIRN INDIA
228.40
152.8
203.7
229.8
254.5
305.4
75.5
218.1
14/03/08
RANBAXY LABS
464.10
375.1
430.3
451.8
485.6
540.8
74.3
438.7
08/02/08
SUN PHARMA
1295.00 1031.7
1200.7
1275.3
1369.7
1538.7
71.4
1232.8
29/02/08
NATIONAL ALUM.
461.55
382.1
437.5
468.7
492.8
548.2
68.3
452.5
22/02/08
HINDUSTAN UNIL. 226.15
205.6
218.2
222.9
230.8
243.4
67.5
224.0
08/02/08
WEEKLY DOWN TREND STOCKS
Let the price move above Center Point or Level 3 and when it move back below Center Point or Level 3 then sell
with what ever high registered above Center Point or Level 3 as the stop loss. After selling if the prices moves to
Level 2 or below then look to cover short positions as the opportunity arises. If the close is above Weekly Reversal
Value then the trend will change from Down Trend to Up Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly
reversal of the Down Trend.
Last
Center
Relative
Weekly Down
Close
Point
Strength Reversal Trend
Scrips
Level 1 Level 2
Level 3 Level 4
Value
Date
Cover
Short
Cover
Short
Sell
Price
Sell
Price
Stop
Loss
CENTRAL BANK
80.35
64.3
75.2
81.1
86.2
97.1
25.11
91.61
18/01/08
MOSER-BAER IND 149.70
107.8
136.8
152.9
165.8
194.8
25.67
162.20
11/01/08
I-FLEX SOLUTIONS 979.00
794.3
923.3
996.7
1052.3
1181.3
27.28
1028.00 07/03/08
FINANCIAL TECH
1531.00 1120.3
1414.3
1591.7
1708.3
2002.3
27.96
1882.75 11/01/08
OMAXE
212.45
155.9
195.3
217.6
234.7
274.1
28.15
233.83
11/01/08
3
more a data of gains of a few hundred points without any significant stock wise trading opportunities. It shows stock
wise gains but from the
trading perspective, it
lacked
strength
significantly
to
profit
from the trading range.
PUNTER'S PICKS
Note: Positional trade and exit at stop loss or target which ever is earlier. Not an intra-day trade. A delivery
based trade for a possible time frame of 1-7 trading days. Exit at first target or above.
Scrips
BSE
CODE
Last
Close
Buy Price
Buy On
Rise
Stop Loss Target 1 Target 2
Risk
Reward
AARVEE DENIMS EXPOR 514274
77.30
72.00
78.90
58.00
91.8
112.7
0.75
PASARI SPINNING MILL
521080
14.22
13.38
14.45
12.00
16.0
18.4
0.79
VESUVIUS INDIA
520113 238.50
233.00
246.00
215.90
264.6
294.7
1.15
Sensex Wave Analysis
Wave I-2594 to 3758
Wave II-3758 to 2904
Wave III- Internals as
follows:
Wave 1- 2904 to 6249
BUY LIST
Scrip
Last Close Buy Price Buy Price Buy Price Stop Loss Target 1 Target 2
Monthly
RS
SUN PHARMACEUTICAL I
1295.00
1286.7
1266.5
1246.3
1181.00 1457.7
1628.7
51.92
Wave 2-6249 to 4227
Wave 3-4227 to 12671
Wave IV- 12671 to 8799
Wave V- Internals as
follows:
Wave 1-8799 to 14724
Wave 2-14724 to 12316
Wave 3-12316 to 21206.
Wave 4-21206 to 15228 --
Till date movement-Not
yet complete. Try to
search for symptoms of
reversal. A close above
16683 would be the first
indication of a possible
termination of correction,
further confirmed by a
rise above 17227.
Internal of Wave 4
Wave A-21206 to 15532
Wave B- 15532 to 18137
Internal of Wave B went
into a triangle formation
EXIT LIST
Scrip
Last Close Sell Price Sell Price Sell Price Stop loss Target
Monthly Relative
Strength (RS)
BANK OF INDIA
280.50
288.1
300.3
312.5
352.10
184.5
38.75
EIH
148.85
153.1
157.5
161.8
175.90
116.2
39.80
ESSAR OIL
223.90
225.2
232.9
240.7
265.85
159.3
49.49
HDFC (HOUSING DEV.FI
2503.00
2565.9
2612.5
2659.1
2810.00 2170.9
39.81
INDIABULLS FIN. SERV
480.10
504.7
529.3
553.9
633.40
296.5
35.13
JAIN IRRIGATION SYST
615.00
660.6
681.5
702.4
770.00
483.6
38.81
LARSEN & TOUBRO
2908.00
2953.1
3057.5
3161.9
3500.00 2068.1
29.96
PRAKASH INDUSTRIES
233.75
243.7
252.9
262.1
291.80
165.9
45.69
SAIL (STEEL AUTHORIT
202.05
211.9
219.2
226.4
250.00
150.2
37.42
SIMPLEX INFRASTRUCTU
523.70
547.5
562.0
576.5
623.40
424.7
41.59
SINTEX INDUSTRIES
355.60
386.5
400.7
414.9
460.90
266.1
35.25
STATE BANK OF IN(NEW
1714.00
1831.1
1880.5
1929.9
2090.00 1412.1
39.29
TATA POWER CO.
1160.00
1196.8
1233.5
1270.2
1389.00
885.8
45.38
WELSPUN-GUJARAT STAH
374.80
381.8
392.5
403.2
438.00
290.8
41.49
YES BANK
173.45
196.0
205.3
214.5
244.50
117.5
37.00
Wave C- 18137 to 15228-Till Date movement- The move is not yet complete.
The price implication of this Wave C can be 0.382, 0.500 and 0.618 times of Wave A projected down from Wave B. This
gives us the downside target figures of 15877-15183-14489 respectively
Against this projection, we have attained a low of 15228. As per this projection, we have either completed the Wave C leg
or in the process of terminating it at either of the level of 15183 to 14489.
If the Sensex moves down to 14489 and goes below 14724, then the fall will get extended to a much deeper level.
In that case, we will have to terminate the Wave V at 21206 and the alternate count from 8799 will be as follows
Wave V- Internals as follows:
Wave 1-8799 to 14724
Wave 2-14724 to 12316
Wave 3-12316 to 20238
Wave 4-20238 to 18182
Wave 5-18182 to 21206
If this wave count comes into shape and existence, then it will terminate the entire Wave from 2594 to 21206. If that count
comes into focus, then the correction will be of the rise from 2594 to 21206. The correction levels will be placed at 14102-
11907-9711.
We are into a situation to name the fall as the corrective cycle within an overall super long term bull market or an
Intermediate bear market with a super long-term bull market. A corrective cycle also provides hope whereas an
Intermediate Bear market provides no respite. Market has to make a choice now.
Conclusion
4
It's a crucial week ahead as a further sustained fall and sharp week to week negative movement would mean that we are
confirming a broader time frame intermediate bear market or we are still into a corrective cycle, which gives us hope that
we can still reach the top some day.
Strategy for the week
Sell below 15228 with high of the week stop loss or 16552, whichever is higher at the point of breakdown. Alternatively,
wait for a rise above 16552 during the week and when it falls down below 16552 then sell with high above 16552 as the
stop loss.
A rise and weekly close above the 2 weeks high of 17227 will confirm a significant pull-back which could get extended to
19000 or above before surrendering gains later. Traders can monitor the Sensex and execute in future if they have the risk
bearing capacity.
* It's a treasure hunt at Dalal Street. Get the clues from fund managers, apply your brains and drive to the pot of gold.
TOWER TALK
* RBI may not cut rates despite the fall in IIP numbers as it does not want to add to inflationary pressures in the economy.
But FM may influence banks to reduce rates.
* Reliance Power is one glaring example that fundamentals prevail at the end. Even 3:5 bonus did not help the scrip to
come to its IPO price. Even the buy-back plan of Reliance Energy misfired to boost the share price.
* A Real estate bubble is about to surface as most projects in Tier I and Tier II cities do not find any buyers. Book profits in
this sector.
* If Arcelor Mittal's guidance for Q1CY08 is any indicator, the steel sector is in good
shape.
* IPOs from BSNL and Nuclear Power Corporation may be the turning points of the
market.
* Core Projects is another Educomp in making feels a veteran market player. Best time
to start accumulating.
* Although rising crude oil price is a negative, it augurs well for Selan Exploration
being an oil drilling company.
* Kilburn Engineering is regularly bagging good orders and has an order position of
over Rs.70 cr. A good bet below Rs.30.
* A cement expert feels that the market has overreacted in predicting the oversupply
situation in 2009 and advises to accumulate cement scrips at this juncture.
* After its equity reduction and the Tata Project stake, Artson Engineering equity now stands at Rs.3.68 cr. which means
that the company is actually trading at a market cap of Rs.150 cr. Sell now and buy later.
* Despite the weak market sentiment, both the issues of Gammon Infrastructure Projects and Sita Shree Foods Products
were fully subscribed in all segments.
5
By Saarthi
BEST BETS
NOTICE
The next issue of Money
Times dated March 24 -
30, 2008 will be released
in Mumbai on Thursday,
20
th
March 2008 in view
of the market holidays
from 20 - 23 March 2008.
C&C Constructions Ltd. (Code: 532813)
Rs.189.75
Incorporated in July 1996, C&C Constructions Ltd. (C&CL) is an infrastructure project development company that
provides engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) services for infrastructure projects in India and Afghanistan.
It is engaged in the construction of airfield pavements-rigid and flexible, state and national highways, city and rural
roads, bridges and culverts, optic fibre cables (OFC) backbone projects etc. Hence its expertise is primarily in
transportation engineering projects including roads, bridges, flyovers and airport runways. It also specialises in laying of
OFC, maintenance of telecom network, electric transmission network, microwave tower and manufacturing & erection of
telecom antennas. C&CL has been executing projects independently as well as 50:50 joint venture with BSCPL,
Hyderabad. Its projects are located mainly in Punjab, Bihar, Himachal Pradesh and in the New Delhi region. Major clients
of the company include NHAI, AAI, Infrastructure Boards and PWDs of various State Governments - Government of
Afghanistan, The Louis Berger Group Inc, RITES Ltd. and UNOPS etc.
As on date, C&CL boasts of an order book of more than Rs.1000 cr., which are road projects to be executed by June 2009.
Of these, over 90% belong to the Indian terrain while the balance 10% is from Afghanistan. Thus, the company has
considerably de-risked its revenue model by lowering its dependence on Afghanistan, which couple of years back used to
comprise over 70% of its total revenue. Although road projects in Afghanistan offer higher margin of around 30% against
10% in India, but the risk attached to them was high due to political and economic uncertainty and other social factors.
Now C&CL is concentrating to offset the lower margin by higher volume of sales, increased efficiency and effective cost
control measures. As such, the company bagged its first BOT project last year to develop, design, construct, maintain and
operate a 44 km stretch of the highway in Punjab from Kurali to Kiratpur on NH21 worth Rs.400 cr. It has also diversified
6
into other sectors such as water and sewerage, transmission towers and constructing niche commercial buildings.
Notably, C&CL has been adjudged as L1 bidder for Phase-II project of Bihar SEB to supply of 132KV Transmission Line
Tower package including supply of conductors and insulators initiated by the Power Grid Corp of India. Recently, the
company made its entry into Himachal Pradesh by bagging two contracts amounting to Rs.202 cr. from the Himachal
Pradesh Road & Infrastructure Development Corporation Ltd.
As per the Economic Survey, an investment of Rs.14,50,000 cr. would be required in the infrastructure sector during the
11
th
Five Year Plan. Secondly, the National Highway Development Program (NHDP) Phase-I to Phase-VII envisages a
comprehensive road development programme for India, which the government intends to implement through public
private partnership (PPP). Accordingly, it has been decided that all the subprojects in NHDP would be taken up on the
basis of PPP on Build Operate and Transfer (BOT) mode. Moreover, the private sector participation in Phase-II of NHDP
has also been increased. In short, C&CL being one of the few Indian companies carrying out construction work in
Afghanistan is set to benefit from reconstruction activities in Afghanistan and also from the ongoing domestic boom in
the construction & infrastructure sector. In February 2007, to fund its BOT projects and working capital requirement,
C&CL raised nearly Rs.125 cr. through the IPO route at Rs.291 per share. Besides, it also made a pre IPO placement of
nearly 12 lakh equity shares at Rs.275 to various prestigious institutional investors. But in the recent carnage, the share
price tumbled down to Rs.180 level. For FY08 ending 30
th
June 2008, C&CL is expected to clock a turnover of Rs.425 cr.
with profit of Rs.35 cr. i.e. an EPS of Rs.19 on its equity of Rs.18.30 cr. And for FY09, despite lower margins, it can earn a
profit of Rs.40 cr. on a topline of Rs.1000 cr., which works out to an EPS of Rs.22 on its current equity. Investors are,
therefore, recommended to buy this stock at declines as the scrip can appreciate 50% in 15 months.
ABM Knowledgeware Ltd. (Code: 531161)
Rs.38.30
Promoted by Prakash Rane in 1993, ABM Knowledgeware Ltd.'s (ABM) core competence lies in solutions for e-
governance and systems integration. Being one of the earliest private sector companies to focus on e-governance, ABM
possesses over 600 man-years of experience with in-depth domain expertise in computerisation of diverse areas like
secretariats, administrative offices, urban & rural local self-government bodies like municipal corporations, district
administrations etc. The various areas that these solutions cover include file tracking and registry management, grievance
redressal & management, utility billing, accounting systems, citizen services etc. This has endowed ABM with a
microscopic view of the functioning of government officials right from Patwaris and Gram Sevaks to Chief Secretaries
and Ministers. Moreover, it has now got an in-depth understanding of the grass-root needs of citizens as well as
administrators. Notably, ABM has presence in Maharashtra, Goa, Gujarat, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh,
Delhi and in the Middle East and South Africa overseas
Today, ABM boasts of executing several e-governance projects right from conceptualisation to implementation and
ensuring its continuity. The company has pioneered the concept of Citizen Facilitation Centre (CFC™) in Maharashtra by
successfully providing time bound service delivery to citizens in municipal corporations, District collectorates and zilla
parishads. It is also one of the few companies in India that has developed ready-to-deploy, customisable e-governance
products / solutions for vital generic functions. Its suite of e-governance products and solutions offer an excellent
opportunity to administrators for rapid implementation of e-governance solutions. Some of its popular, successful and
award winning products are:
ABM MOIS 2000™: for monitoring & tracking movement of any file/letter in Govt/Semi-Govt offices.
ABM CARE™: helps any organization to monitor the status of complaints received by them as well as ensuring time
bound redressal of the same.
ABM MAINET™: flagship product for complete computerisation of municipal corporation & councils.
ABM CFC™: e-governance solution for rendering more efficient and effective service to citizens in Municipal
Corporations, Collectorates, Zilla Parishads, Hospitals, PSUs etc.
ABM AQUA™: or Water Billing, Receipt & Accounting, useful for Water Boards & Local Bodies like municipal
councils/corporations.
ABM SWS™: for time bound processing & delivery of various Certificates/ Licences/ Permits at District Collectorates
and Tehsils.
One of the mainstays of ABM's products and solutions is their total bilingual nature i.e. solutions that not only have
bilingual user interfaces but also provide the functionality of data entry, capture, storage, retrieval and display of all data
in bilingual mode across a variety of technology platforms. It has been awarded the ISO 9001 : 2000 certificate for quality
management system in design, development, implementation, maintenance and technical support of software. To address
the growing need for security in software solutions and on-line transactions, ABM has tied up with Verisign, the global
leader in e-security solutions. Besides it has partnered with leading technology companies like Microsoft, Oracle, IBM,
Sun-Solaris, SCO, Unix, Safescrypt etc.
Apart from generic e-governance solutions, ABM is developing Strategic Business Units focused on revenue earning areas
like urban administration, utility and ERP by inducting experienced professionals and laying down quality processes. The
need for ERP has been increasingly felt by the e-governance customers due to several advantages of the packaged
software like ERP over the be-spoke software development approach. Hence, ABM has effectively leveraged its domain
expertise by working closely with SAP and Oracle for developing this market. To sum up, ABM's strength as a e-
governance solution provider lies in software development, project management, domain knowledge, citizen service
delivery experience, institutionalisation of IT and systems integration. On the back of bold initiatives and huge
allocation/spending on e-governance by various government bodies, the future prospects of ABM is very encouraging.
Considering the stunning performance for the first three quarters and robust order book position, ABM is expected to
register a topline of around Rs.30 cr. with a bottomline of around Rs.7 cr. This works out to an EPS of Rs.7 on its equity of
Rs.10 cr. Investors are advised to buy at declines for a price target of Rs.60 (i.e. 50% return) within a year.
Bartronics India Ltd.: Buy on declines
By Devdas Mogili
Bartronics India Ltd. is a 18-year old Hyderabad-based company incorporated in 1991. It initially started with providing
solutions in Bar Coding - one of the oldest Automatic Identification & Data Capture (AIDC) technologies, Radio
Frequency Based Identification (RFID), Point of Sale solutions (POS), Smart Cards. Thus it has an AIDC division, RFID
division, Smart Card Division and Retail-IT division. The company has regional offices in Aurangabad, Delhi,
Jamshedpur, Bangalore and Chennai with branch offices at Mumbai, Pune, Visakhapatnam and Coimbatore while its
headquarter is at Hyderabad. Sudhir Rao is the managing director of the company.
Bartronics has over 16,000 customers spread throughout India, Malaysia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Dubai. It has
executed large scale turnkey projects in Bar Coding, RFID and Biometrics technologies.
Bartronics has established business alliances with Watchdata Systems in Singapore, Muhlbauer in Germany, SIL in
Mauritius, Hayleys in Sri Lanka, Almoayyed Commercial Services in Bahrain and St. Microelectronics and Iris
Corporation in Malaysia whereas its industry associates include Iintermec Technologies, Synel Technologies, Datalogic,
Marson Technologies, Escort Memory Systems, Ask, Wavex Technologies, Singapore, Idmicro - RFID Solution Provider,
Skywave - Mobile Communications, Lintec Corporation etc.
Expansion: The company has embarked upon an ambitious Rs.270 cr. expansion plan and commissioned a new Smart
Cards manufacturing facility near Hyderabad. This opens up the smart cards technology as a new business venture for
the company.
The 80 million cards per annum facility is one of the largest in Asia and the company has entered into selling
arrangements with a few leading consumers over the next two years. It plans 70% capacity utilization in the first year and
100% in the second year.
Performance: The company reported a basic EPS of Rs.7.38 on total income of Rs.64.44 cr. during FY07 as against a total
income of Rs.29.47 cr. in FY06.
Financial Highlights:
(Rs. in lakh)
Latest Results: The company came out with
excellent results for Q3FY08. It notched up a
total income of Rs.70.17 cr. with a net profit of
Rs.10.95 cr. netting a basic EPS of Rs.6.00 and
diluted EPS of Rs.3.66. The annualized basic
EPS works out to Rs.24 and diluted EPS of
.64.
ANALYSIS
Particulars
QE 31/12/07
QE 31/12/06
YE 31/03/07
Net Sales/Income
7016.72
1756.58
6349.55
Other Income
0.05
0.53
94.51
Total Income
7016.77
1757.11
6444.06
Expenditure
a. (Inc)/Dec in Stoc
(3532.22)
66.31
183.39
b. Raw Material
8750.91
1116.08
3953.22
c. Pur of trd goods
-
-
-
Rs.14
d. Employee Cost
189.10
55.10
Financials: The company has an equity base of
Rs.21.12 cr. with a book value of 77.54. As on
31
st
March 2007, it has a debt equity ratio of
0.09 with ROCE of 16.29% and RONW of
14.47%.
248.38
e. Depreciation
86.39
35.77
168.45
f. Other Expenditure
205.64
58.55
279.04
g. Total
5699.82
1331.81
4832.48
Interest
66.76
36.23
134.31
Exceptional items
16.04
-
-
Profit before tax
1234.15
389.07
1477.27
Share Profile: The company's share with a
face value of Rs.10 is listed and traded on the
BSE/NSE under the B2 segment. Its share
price touched a 52-week high of Rs.294.50 and
a low of Rs.93. At its current market price of
Rs.180.50, it has a market capitalization of
Rs.350.21 cr.
Tax Expense
Current Tax
113.93
17.50
93.44
Deferred Tax
25.50
27.00
37.25
Net Profit
1094.72
344.57
1346.58
Paid up Equity
1946.72
1456.91
1781.91
Res Ex Rev Reservs
-
-
12233.83
Basic EPS (Rs)
6.00
1.89
7.38
Diluted EPS (Rs)
3.66
1.15
4.50
7
Dividends: Post IPO, with a view to conserve resources, the company has not paid any dividend.
Shareholding Pattern: As on 31
st
December 2007, the promoter holding in the company is to the tune of 41.05% while the
balance 58.95% is held by institutions, mutual funds and the Indian public.
Prospects: The AIDC market has grown at a CAGR of 40% over the past two years. With the advent of new technologies
like Biometrics & RFID gaining prominence, the company has positioned itself to leverage its 15 years of experience in
this business. It expects its traditional business lines to grow at a CAGR of 30% to 35% over the next few years given the
rapidly growing retail and manufacturing activities in the country. The RFID market is expected to jump from US $1.4
billion annually to US $3.8 billion in 2010. For Bartronics, RFID technology solutions continue to be a strong contributor to
sales and profits.
The Barcode industry continues to be dominated by a large number of small players. Logistics and other companies,
which are in the supply-chain management areas, constitute its major customer base. The automobile industry including
auto ancillaries is quickly adopting the latest AIDC technologies to bring about much needed efficiencies of production. A
number of applications provide an opportunity for automation right from the point of receipt of material into a
production facility to the final despatch of finished goods.
The Indian market for AIDC solutions shows a fairly steady growth rate of about 30%. However, the segment related to
RFID solutions has shown a remarkable growth with more and more companies adopting this technology. A number of
companies have switched over to Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) software to ensure that they have quality data
going into their systems. Bartronics has helped a number of companies to integrate AIDC solutions with their ERP
systems.
The company has invested significantly into the smart cards' manufacturing facility as this emerging technology under
the AIDC umbrella offers it a great chance to break into the big league. Domestic demand for smart cards is more than 150
million units per year and growing at a CAGR of 45%. In India, much of the demand is from the telecom and the banking
sector. The company is also planning to capture around 70% of the SIM cards market. It's working closely with the
Government of India to participate in many of the government initiatives using smart cards like the National Id Card
programme, Driving Licences, PAN cards etc.
Conclusion: The company expects its performance to continue to be top-class during the current year. In addition, with
investments into a state-of-the-art Smart Cards manufacturing facility, its revenues and profits are expected to shoot up
significantly. The company is expected to have a market share of at least 20% in the various segments of the AIDC market
in India.
Bartronics is well placed to capture the new opportunities provided by the requirements of the industry and specific
applications within an industry with respect to the AIDC/RFID/Retail/Smart Cards related initiatives.
At its current market price of Rs.180, the share price is discounted less than 14 times its estimated earning. However,
strictly speaking, there is no peer group for comparison of the P/E multiple. Since, there is little competition for
Bartronics in this segment; its prospects for growth are excellent. The share has the potential to cross the Rs.250 mark in a
buoyant market. Good acquisition on every decline in these volatile times.
Sensex is down to a six-month low
MARKET
By Ashok D. Singh
The Sensex lost 215 points or 1.35% to 15,760.52 for the week ended Friday, 14 March 2008. The NSE Nifty shed 25.8
points or 0.54% to 4745.80 for the week. Continued flow of negative news pertaining to global economy kept the market
depressed and volatile. The developments on the domestic front only added to the concerns. A surge in inflation coupled
with lower-than-expected industrial production data deepened the negative effect.
The industrial output rose only by 5.3% in January'08 from a year earlier, slowing sharply from the previous month's
upwardly revised 7.7%. Manufacturing production rose 5.9% in January from a year earlier compared to the provisional
annual growth of 8.4% in December.
Inflation based on the wholesale price index rose 5.11% in the 12 months to 1 March 2008, higher than the previous week's
rise of 5.02%, government data showed on Friday, 14 March 2008. The rate was the highest since 26 May 2007.
The BSE Mid-Cap lost 220.94 points or 3.25% to 6,583.45 and the BSE Small-Cap index slipped 329.68 points or 3.92% to
8,079.50.
The two major indices, the Sensex and the Nifty, saw divergent trends on Monday, 10 March 2008 with the latter posting
gains helped by spurt in non-Sensex constituents viz. Reliance Petroleum and Cairn India. The 30-share BSE Sensex was
down 51.80 points or 0.32% at 15,923.72. The broader based Nifty was up 28.80 points or 0.60% at 4,800.40.
Local markets managed to post decent gains in choppy trades on 11 March 2008 boosted by steady buying demand for
index pivotals and short covering at lower level. The Sensex gained 199.43 points or 1.25% at 16,123.15. The broader based
Nifty advanced 65.50 points or 1.36% at 4,865.90.
8
On 12 March 2008, the market erased almost entire gains in contrast to the strong start after disappointing industrial
production figures for January 2008 hit the market in early afternoon trade. The US Federal Reserve's move to inject up to
$200 billion of liquidity into strained credit markets triggered rally across Asian and European markets. The 30-share
Sensex was up marginally by 4.83 points or 0.03% at 16,127.98. The broader based Nifty rose 6.10 points or 0.13% at 4,872.
A major setback was witnessed on the bourses on Thursday, 13 March 2008 as share prices fell almost across the board.
Markets across the globe dropped amid concerns about the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's efforts to aid strained
credit markets. The 30-share Sensex slumped 770.63 points or 4.78% at 15,357.35. The Sensex hit a low of 15,228.99 in late
trade, its lowest level since early September 2007. The broader based Nifty was down 242.40 points or 5.10% at 4,623.60.
Buying in battered pivotals triggered solid rally on the bourses in late trade with the market closing near highest point of
the day on 14 March 2008. However, the market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market remained negative.
The Sensex surged 403.17 points or 2.63% at 15,760.52. The broader based Nifty advanced 122.20 points or 2.64% at
4,745.80.
Continued uncertainty about the credit crisis and how long it will last, will ensure that the domestic bourses remain
volatile next week.
The US Federal Reserve is expected to lower the Fed rate by 75 basis points in its meeting on 18 March 2008. This act
could provide a trigger to global markets. If US Fed actually cuts rate further it would widen the spread between the US
and India's main short-term lending of 7.75%, and could encourage flows to higher-yielding Indian assets.
Apart from the US economy some other global factors that need to be watched are the Japanese Yen. The continued flow
of negative news from the US has caused Japanese yen to appreciate against the dollar. Yen is an important source of
liquidity globally.
9
Pull-back rally expected
MARKET
By G. S. Roongta
The stock market continued to drift lower and lower again last week with renewed force as the market seems to have lost
its strength to hold on or sustain a pull-back rally for more than a day. Thus even if the market stages a minor rally on a
particular day and ushers in some hope, it is destroyed the very next day as it plunges more than what it has gained the
earlier day. This has been the pattern for almost two months ever since the indices started moving southwards. This
clearly indicates that bulls have nothing to store or hold for future growth prospects at least for the time
being.
We should, therefore, stop talking about global cues since our markets only act in tandem with global
markets in the negative zone but do not record gains when global cues are positive and impact global
markets positively. This has been pointed out in this column on two-three occasions in the last six weeks
and was quite in evidence even last week when the Dow Jones closed with a gain of 400 points on
Wednesday, 12
th
March 2008 but the Sensex ended flat with a pittance of 4.83 points gain at 16,127.98
belying all expectations because of a good opening and an intra-day high of 16,683.37. Comparing the
intra-day high with its close the Sensex had lost nearly 550 points shedding all gains that had emerged based on positive
global cues. Hence the problem in our markets is internal and far more intensive than visible or in comparison to other
Asian markets if not the global markets. This column has been harping on this point ever since the crash of 21
st
January
2008.
G.S. Roongta
The Asian markets, which are mostly dominated by US or UK based FIIs have made it a focal point to divest heavily in
Asian markets as long as they can reap some profits to offset even in part, the subprime crisis that they face in their home
countries. This way, the gain that they derive by selling their portfolio investments in Asian markets is far greater than the
portfolio gains available in their home markets. This is obvious since Asian markets had more than trebled over the last
two years while he UK and US markets had hardly gained and were fluctuating in a narrow range during the same
period. Since Indian markets were among the largest gainers over the past five years, it was only natural that the divest
heavily in Indian markets and book maximum profits to make up for subprime losses as much as possible. As a result,
our markets stand ruined and was the theme of my last article headlined 'FIIs rule and ruin the markets'.
This is the price that we must pay when we allow the FIIs to dominate our markets. So, just as we made merry in 2007on
the strength of FII buying who collectively pumped in over US $15 billion in 2007, we should not shed tears as the FIIs
withdraw their money from our markets. It was immature on our part to celebrate the success of our markets on the
strength of FII money when, in reality, we should have been both conscious and cautious. Our attitude was like the
proverbial saying "Shining in borrowed feathers", which in every respect is not a desirable situation as it gives a false
sense of image and accomplishment.
Let us also admit that it was only on account of the blind buying by FIIs that saw Sensex multiply nearly 7 fold over the
past 5 years and trebling in stock values over the past 2 years. But instead of being realistic and guarded, our officials and
analysts went gaga in the media especially the TV channels, leading everyone to believe that India was among the hottest
destination and likely to overtake China too. Regrettably, none of those economic pundits or market experts are heard of
these days and the channels brush off the current stock market crisis as a global/regional phenomenon driven by global
cues. But as this column has repeatedly pointed out, this is not really the case as the one-to-one equation seems to fail
whenever global markets move up. Our Finance Minister used to beam a smile when our stock markets were zooming in
sharp contrast to other global or Asian markets and justified the same on the 'decoupling' theory. But soon thereafter, he
was proved wrong as our markets changed trend to move south and indeed stand decoupled now!
Is not strange that our domestic financial institutions are not coming forward to support the markets when our FM
repeatedly echoes that our growth story is intact? If our stock market was rising on account of economic fundamentals, as
our experts repeatedly proclaimed in 2007 then why is it plummeting now when our economic fundamentals are intact?
Had it been so, the FIIs, who are shrewd investors worldwide, would not have resorted to such aggressive selling. And
the index of industrial production numbers released on Wednesday have only confirmed the apprehensions of the FIIs
and the wishful thinking of the economic experts including the FM since our productivity has indeed fallen.
Right since January 2008, our stock markets have encountered some adverse happening or the other. First and foremost,
was the fresh allocation by FIIs for 2008, which turned out to be quite negative compared to 2007 and spoilt the mood
despite encouraging Q3 results. This was followed by their selling pressure, which changed the total sentiment of the
market and while the market was eagerly awaiting a positive trigger from the Union Budget 2008-09, the FM dealt the
final blow with his Budget provisions, which did not favour the market at all. In fact, the hike in Capital Gains Tax on
short-term gains and introduction of Commodity Trading Tax were distinctly negative for marketmen.
It appears that our government is not much concerned about resolving the issue of the market quite unlike the US
government, which is ceased of the problem of financial markets and has taken regular remedial steps. But in our case we
have lost close to 7000 points from the all time top of 21,200 made on 10
th
January 2008 and have to rely only on words of
wisdom from the authorities without any supportive concrete action. Little wonder then, the markets witnessed a panic
situation on Thursday, 13
th
March 2008 as stock prices fell across the board with virtually no buyers and hardly 100 stocks
in the green against 1200 in the red.
Both the BSE Sensex and Nifty hit a new low reminiscent of the blood bath on 21
st
& 22
nd
January 2008 leaving many to
wonder how much further they can fall. Not surprisingly, the bears took full advantage of the fall in the IIP numbers and
struck so severely that it was nothing short of another mayhem even as the market was yet to recover from the first one in
the third week of January 2008.
The mood, however, changed on the heavy short covering on Friday, 14
th
March 2008 as the Sensex gained 403 points to
close at 15,760.52 and the Nifty gained 122 points to close at 4745.80. Since this pull-back has come about after a double
bottom, between which the market had been oscillating and consolidating, a pull-back to Sensex 18,000 and Nifty 5250 is a
distinct possibility.
"There would not be any significant fall from the current levels"
- Sunil Singhania, Fund Manager – Equities, Reliance Mutual Fund
FROM THE FUND MANAGER'S DESK
Excerpts from a conference call:
Current market scenario ……
Markets have corrected sharply in the last month. The series of expectations, which are usually
built up prior to the Budget, ended up in disappointments. Current sentiment is more influenced
by global factors including the US sub prime crisis, US slowdown, and high commodity prices. The
USA has been proactive to balance its economy but it is slightly difficult to see that sentiment
would be favouring global market conditions. The market expects 75bps point rate cut on the US
Fed meet on March 18 to stabilise the US economy and the dollar. Petrodollars are becoming a
cause of concern.
India has been the worst performing market due to many reasons. First, in the past the Indian market had run-up sharply
supported by massive build up in the derivatives market. Secondly, the negative sentiment continued to engulf the global
markets. Thirdly, hedge funds have been cutting their positions.
What is your outlook on the Indian market in the short to medium term?
The Indian market will remain sluggish in the coming month, but there would not be a significant fall from the current
levels. Though domestic forces remain strong, the only worry for the near term would be the early elections, which may
be scheduled in late 2008 or early 2009.
What is the current cash level Reliance MF is sitting on?
Our funds are sitting on cash reserves ranging from 5-30%. Our recent NFO of Reliance Natural Resources Fund, which
mopped up Rs.5,660 cr., has deployed 40% of its corpus in the market.
10
What would be Reliance MF's strategy at current levels?
Reliance Mutual Fund, as a fund house is looking at high beta stocks, which would outperform the market when it starts
gaining momentum. Capital goods, construction, auto and pharma could perform well when the market gains
momentum in coming months. At present, real estate doesn't look attractive. The banking sector in the near term looks
flattish, but one can expect momentum in medium to long term. Growth in lending is expected at the rate of 10-15%.
Interest rates seem to be near their peak. Rate cuts can be expected from the RBI to boost credit growth. Hence, banking
sector can gain momentum in the medium to long term.
Advice for investors
Investors with a short-term horizon can invest into Reliance Vision Fund, which is dominantly exposed to large caps.
Medium to long-term investors can invest in Reliance Growth Fund.
(Courtesy: India Infoline)
Gold ETFs – Shining Investments
MUTUAL FUNDS
We had recommended investment in Gold ETFs in the issue dated 22
nd
October 2007 and the results are quite pleasing.
Gold ETFs
Absolute Returns (last 3 months)
Gold Benchmark Exchange Traded Scheme
24.40%
Kotak Gold ETF
24.40%
Reliance Gold Exchange Traded Fund
23.50%
UTI Gold Exchange Traded Fund
24.50%
Gold has reached an all time high and those who switched to this asset class would have recorded smart gains. For those
with surplus money, secondary market purchases appear to be a glittering avenue and may provide stable returns over
the long-term. A disciplined investment approach at regular intervals should stand one in good stead.
MFs focused on Agro stocks are a good bet
India has huge arable land reserve but yet ranks very low on the yield parameters about 30%-50% of global standards. But
the populist nature of the Union Budget 2008-09 has given a strong impetus to the agriculture sector, which now appears
to have robust prospects looks attractive from the stock market point of view.
There appears to be a huge opportunity for companies offering inputs like seeds, agriculture chemicals and pesticides,
which enhance agricultural yields. These companies face a threat from the vagaries of Indian agriculture and fragmented
land holding. At a macro level, the positives lie in the huge domestic opportunity augmented by the huge investments
and increasing prospects of the food processing and retailing industry.
Investors should watch out for schemes focused on natural resources and agriculture sectors as they are expected to do
well.
Sundaram Rural India Fund
With a very unique name, Sundaram Rural India Fund is focused on chemicals & fertilizers, which have a significant
overweight position in the portfolio. Natural resources, consumer products and financial services are the other stock
themes.
The returns are as follows –
% returns
Period
Fund
Benchmark*
Since Inception
29.7
22.5
Last 1 Year
49.7
43.5
*BSE 500
The fund has around 18% exposure to the fertilizers & chemicals with highest weightage to Tata Chemicals. Larsen &
Toubro has the next highest exposure with 3.7% allocation. The scheme appears to have a few fairly potent stocks like
Punj Lloyd. The next highest exposure is to the financial services space wherein it has exposure to banking which was in
the doldrums after the recent budget announcement and the ominous shadows cast by the sub-prime issues. Its outlook to
that extent is uncertain as the sentiment for this sector is weak.
Surprisingly, there is not much exposure to agriculture stocks like seeds, food processing etc. The latest factsheet suggests
that it is underweight in front-liners like Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, Infosys Technologies, HDFC and ICICI Bank.
The fund has not bought into any of the recent IPOs except for Maytas Infrastructure, which appears to be a good stock
pick.
The portfolio is not particularly skewed towards large-cap or the mid-cap or & small-cap spaces and appears to be
balanced. Over the last few months, it bought some momentum stocks but exited them in the short-term. This does not
augur well for investors.
11
Thus instead of focusing on companies dealing in agri imputs or food processing in keeping with its name, this fund
keeps on changing its portfolio with the flavour of the season in the stock markets.
The fund strategy does not inspire much confidence. While fertilizers do have a favourable demand-supply scenario, it
remains a highly regulated sector which rules out any extraordinary performance.
(Compiled by Devangi Bhuta)
12
By Saarthi
STOCK WATCH
Manugraph India Ltd. (Code: 505324) (Rs.84.95) is India's largest manufacturer of web offset and sheet fed offset printing
presses. With a whopping 70% market share, its printing presses are present in almost all major publication houses. In
India, it has worldwide presence from Latin America to Europe and from the Middle East to China. Last year, it acquired
Dauphin Graphic Machines Inc, the No. 1 company in the USA in the four page segment for US $19.20 million. With this
acquisition it has become the world's largest single width printing press manufacturing company. Accordingly, the US
subsidiary has started outsourcing the component parts from India and even marketing Manugraph machines in North
America. But due to the economic slowdown in USA, the response was not as good as anticipated earlier. Still on the back
of robust domestic demand, it is expected to end FY08 with sales of Rs.400 cr. and PAT of Rs.50 cr. on a standalone basis.
This translates into EPS of Rs.16 on its current equity of Rs.6.08 cr. with a face value of Rs.2. The scrip has been beaten
down mercilessly from its recent high of Rs.205 in November 2007 and offers an excellent opportunity to buy. Also, its
agreement of business co-operation for marketing with MAN Roland of Germany is under negotiation.
******
Lokesh Machines Ltd. (Code: 532740) (Rs.64.10) is engaged in the design, development and manufacture of custom built
special purpose machines and general purpose CNC (computerised numerical controls) machines along with their
components. Presently, it derives 70% revenue from the machining division whereas the balance 30% comes from its auto
components division. The company caters primarily to customers in the auto OEM, auto ancillaries and general
engineering space. Hence it supplies mainly to Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto, Force Motors, Cummins, Bharat Forge, Kirloskar
Oil Engines, Everest Kanto Cylinders etc. with separate dedicated facilities for M&M and Ashok Leyland. Of late, it has
also forayed into overseas markets with good orders. On the back of an encouraging performance for the first three
quarters of FY08, it is estimated to register sales of Rs.105 cr. with net profit of Rs.13 cr. for FY08. This works out to an EPS
of Rs.11 on its equity of Rs.11.80 cr. Considering its IPO price of Rs.140 in Arpil 2006 and 52-week high/low as Rs.168/60,
it's a screaming buy.
******
Being the market leader in High Tension XLPE power cables, Torrent Cables Ltd. (Code: 504096) (Rs.217) manufactures
XLPE insulated cables in the voltage range of 1.1KV to 132 KV, Low-Tension (LT) power cables up to 1.1KV and High-
Tension (HT) power cables up to 11KV. It also produces EHV, TRS flexible cables, welding cables, lift cables, colliery
cables and specialty cables in the form of fire resistant low smoke cables (FRLS), railway-signalling cables, mining and
trailing cables. It has a very exhaustive customer base spread over State Electricity Boards (SEBs), Utilities, EPC
Contractors, government/semi-government companies, private companies, dealer network, consultants and many more.
Apart from the SEBs, its clientele includes biggies like Tata Power, L&T, BHEL, ABB, Siemens, Alstom, Jindal, Reliance,
Essar, Suzlon, NTPC, Railways, Powergrid,
SAIL, Torrent Power etc. The rural
electrification plans, APDRP programmes and
government's aim to achieve power for all by
2012 has resulted in increased demand for
power related products like cables. Hence, for
FY08, the company is estimated to clock a
turnover of Rs.225 cr. with net profit of Rs.30
cr. i.e. EPS of Rs.40 on its small equity of
Rs.7.50 cr. With a 52-week high/low of
Rs.440/143, it's a screaming buy as it can
easily appreciate 50% within a year.
******
Patels Airtemp (India) Ltd. (Code: 517417)
(Rs.57.50) is engaged in the manufacture and
sale of an extensive range of heat exchangers
such as shell & tube type, finned tube type
and air cooled heat exchangers, pressure
vessels, air-conditioning and refrigeration
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equipments and turnkey HVAC projects in India and marketing of equipments abroad. It has technical collaboration with
M/s. Tek Fins Inc., USA, for design and manufacture of air cooled heat exchangers. It supplies to core industrial sectors
like power, refineries, fertilizers, cement, petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, textiles and the chemical industries. For future
growth, the company is concentrating more on high value added engineering products and has even got its product the
coveted ASME `U' Stamp authorization. For the December 2007 quarter, the company's net sales declined by 15% to
Rs.10.50 cr. due to delay in dispatches but net profit shot up to Rs.1.40 cr. on lower depreciation cost. Hence it is expected
to register a topline of Rs.50 cr. and profit of Rs.5 cr. for FY08. This will lead to an EPS of Rs.10 on its current equity of Rs.5
cr. Technically, the scrip seems to have bottomed out and can shoot up 50% in 6-9 months.
By Kukku
FIFTY FIFTY
Investment Call
* Yuken India (Rs.174.70) is likely to report full year sales of Rs.103/105 cr. on standalone basis. PAT margin is likely to
be around 6.25% against 5.78% in the first nine months of FY08 and 4.56% in FY07. Its equity is Rs.3 cr., hence expected
EPS may be around Rs.20/21.
One of its subsidiaries, which makes cylinders is said to be doing very well and may report sales of Rs.5/6 cr. for 2007-08,
which is likely to go up Rs.12 cr. next year and Rs.25 cr. for 2009-10. Its global outsourcing story is intact. For FY09, sales
may touch Rs.125-130 cr. on standalone basis without considering sales from global outsourcing and its subsidiary.
Sales to machine tools sector, which was some what slow last December/ January, is said to have picked up. Moreover,
the company has the benefit of its own foundry.
The stock, which has reacted from Rs.398 to Rs.173 level looks attractive for investment.
Market Guidance
* Pratibha Industries (Rs.311.15) has received the Certificate of Registration for its quality management system – API
Specification Q1 for 'Design and Manufacture of Line Pipe'.
With this registration, the company's SAW Pipe Manufacturing Unit is now fully geared to manufacture pipes for supply
to the oil & gas segment.
This approval is in line with our expectations. Investors are advised to stay invested for good long-term targets.
* English Indian Clay (Rs.1739.25) - Shareholders to get four shares for every 19 shares of Bharat Starch Product Ltd. held
on 20
th
February 2008. The stock is trading after this demerger, it is yet to become ex-right. Book part profits at Rs.1900
level.
* J P Associates (Rs.236.25) has value unlocking potential with regard to JP Power Ventures, awarding land to Jaypee
Infratech and potential value from the Ganga-Balia Expressway, which would act as triggers. Stay invested or add on
dips.
* Punj Llyod's (Rs.329.55) strong order position and Investments in PSL and Ramprastha JV could add significant value.
Stock looks attractive at current rate.
* MTNL's (Rs.100.20) book value is Rs.185 and dividend is 40%. Stock looks attractive at Rs.100 level.
* Balmer Lawrie (Rs.366.95) has a strong book value of Rs.165 with expected EPS is Rs.50/52 while last dividend was
Rs.135%. It is a good stock to add in small quantities on dips.
* Revathi Equipments (Rs.919.20) is looking for more acquisitions, if informed sources are to be believed. It is also
developing small real estate in partnership in Mumbai. With coal prices shooting up, coal mining equipment
manufacturers are likely to see better times ahead. Investors are advised to stay invested or add on dips around Rs.800
level. There are also indications, as per unconfirmed sources, that few MNC companies have shown interest in the
company for taking a stake.
* Mather & Platt Pumps (Rs.149.40) will benefit by the fast growing pump markets in Asia and Eastern Europe where a
lot of activity is taking place in waste-water treatment, municipal water supply and construction. The company will have
access to both through Wilo's strong presence in Europe and its Korean and Chinese operations. Long-term investors will
benefit. Stay invested.
* Ranbaxy (Rs.464.10) - Strong reports are pouring in. Stay invested.
* Ashiana Hsg. (Rs.97) - Profit projections and long-term story is intact. Due to change in sentiment, stock price has come
down in line with the trend. Stay invested.
* Valuation of IFCI (Rs.49.85) is attractive at Rs.49 level. Investors can add with a long-term view.
Market View
We had already warned readers of the expected slowdown from time to time in this column. Growth in index of
industrial production (IIP) slipped to 5.3% in January 2008 as compared with 11.6% in January 2007 - the lowest since
October 2006 when it stood at 4.51%. Growth in the manufacturing sector declined to 5.9% in January 2008 as against
12.3% in January 2007.
13
In view of the sharp rise in input costs, Q4 profits are likely to be less. Thus Advance Tax Collection is likely to be less in
this quarter, which may pull down the index further.
Sharp rise in input costs of coal, steel, metal, cement, crude oil and other raw materials along with sharp rise in
manpower costs is likely to affect the margins of many industries.
The market had gone up much ahead of the fundamentals and is now correcting to more realistic levels.
Investors are advised to be very careful in buying at higher levels. Buying should be done in small quantity that too on
dips but very selectively. Avoid speculative stocks having poor fundamentals.
At the same time, oil trading at above US$105 levels is likely to generate huge profits for OPEL countries creating huge
liquidity, part of which money is likely to come back in markets.
Domestic mutual funds along with insurance linked schemes too are sitting on good surplus to support market at lower
levels.
Compared to China, exports from India is very small to USA thus the Indian economy may not get affected that much.
This will attract investment buying from FII once this selling on account of subprime crises gets over.
Recent budget proposals are likely to generate more savings which will help in achieving higher growth rate over the next
few months.
It is expected that the government may come out with more steps to boost the economy and the confidence of investors.
Sectors to do well are Oil & Gas, Steel, Mining, Mining Equipments, Capital Goods industry, Infrastructure companies,
Sugar industry and Pharma.
14
By V. H. Dave
EXPERT EYE
This scrip was earlier recommended in Early Bird Gains (EBG), our newsletter specialising in multi-baggers at Rs.29.50
on 8
th
October 2003 and again at Rs.89.30 on 13
th
June 2007. Since then, it has touched a high of Rs.178.25.
In 1983, Deepak Fertilizers and Petrochemicals Corporation Ltd. (DFPCL) (Code: 500645) (Rs.106.25) started commercial
production of ammonia (in technical collaboration with Fish International Engineers (USA) using natural gas as feedstock.
In 1989, it undertook major expansion and diversification to achieve forward integration of ammonia and diversification
in Methanol. In July 1992, it commenced commercial production of Low Density Ammonium Nitrate (LDAN), Nitro
Phosphate (NP), Dilute Nitric Acid (DNA), and Concentrated Nitric Acid (CNA) resulting in a multi-product portfolio
comprising chemicals, petrochemicals, fertilisers and other agri-inputs. In FY06, it raised US $20 million ECB loan
towards capital expenditure for its Iso Propyl Alcohol project.
It has its plants to manufacture Nitric Acid, Ammonium Nitrate, Methanol, Isopropyl Alcohol (IPA) and Fertilisers at
Taloja, Dist Raigad, Maharastra. Its wholly-owned subsidiary, Smartchem, has Nitric Acid and Ammonium Nitrate plants
at Srikakulam, about 100 km from Vizag in Andhra Pradesh and Sanjan, about 20 km from Vapi in Gujarat.
Its manufacturing capacities of various chemicals are: ammonium nitro-phosphate (ANP) fertilizer (3,00,000 TPA) and
integrated into the manufacture of concentrated nitric acid (79,000 TPA), ammonium nitrate (1,00,000 TPA) and dilute
nitric acid (2,00,000 TPA) and methanol (1,00,000 TPA). The company is India's only producer of IPA with an installed
capacity 70,000 TPA.
Its fertilizer division at Taloja manufactures prilled nitro-phosphate fertilizers under the brand name 'Mahadhan', which
is one of the most widely accepted fertiliser brands in India marketed through a network of over 1000 dealers. DFPCL has
storage facilities at the Taloja factory and at Mumbai and Vishakapatnam ports that allow it to deliver products across the
country providing it an optimum logistic
solution.
DFPCL's industrial chemicals division caters
to a cross-section of industrial customers, both
small and large. They include all major
companies
in
pharmaceuticals,
DMT,
pesticides, resins, textiles, fertilisers, rubber,
petrochemicals, fibres and the polyester
sector.
The construction of the 5.5 lakh sq. ft. Design
Centre and Specialty Mall, Ishanya, for
Rs.120-cr. positioned for retailing interiors
and exteriors in Pune is progressing in full
swing. It has already leased out over 80% of
the leasable space to domestic and global
brands reported in the interiors and exteriors
market.
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15
Thus over 2,20,000 sq. ft. of retail space has been handed over to largest anchors/sub-anchors. Most of the leases are for 15
years with a clause for 12%-15% revision in rent every 5 years.
DFPCL has entered in a 51% JV with Yara International ASA (YIA), a Norway based company, which is the global leader
in ammonia, speciality and bulk fertilizers and Ammonium Nitrate (AN), industrial gases and other diversified chemical
and pollution control products. The JV will develop the market for ammonium nitrate and speciality fertilisers. It will also
invest in the 0.3 milion MTPA AN plant at Paradip in Orissa.
DFPCL's gas requirement is about 0.9-1 mmscmd for full utilisation of its capacities as against the current receipt of 0.4
mmscmd from GAIL. With the commissioning of the Dahej-Uran pipeline, DFPCL is expected to receive additional gas
from Q1FY09 at USD8-10/mmbtu on spot basis, which will help boost its ammonia and fertilizer production. Once gas is
available from the Krishna-Godavari (KG) basin in H1FY09, its input price is likely to be lower on long term contract.
The Ammonium Nitrate (AN) market in India is growing at about 5% p.a. and is expected to rise. The mining,
construction and infrastructure sectors, which currently display good demand and growth trends, are the real drivers of
this market. The markets of South-East Asia, Australia and the Middle-East for AN are also growing strongly.
The domestic demand for AN is estimated at 4,50,000 TPA while the domestic supply currently stands at 2,65,000 TPA
with the balance being imported. Thus the prospects for AN product are extremely bright as DFPCL's market share in this
segment currently stands at 35%.
The fertilizer sector, which is reeling under severe gas shortage, hopes that the availability of gas from Reliance Industries
Ltd.'s (RIL) D-6 in the KG basin would help enhance fertilizer production at lower costs.
According to industry sources, the fuel costs of fertilizer companies in India could drop by about 50% when RIL starts
selling natural gas to some of them from its biggest offshore field at the KG basin from mid-2008.
For FY07, DFPCL posted 44% higher net profit of Rs.93 cr. on 47% increased sales of Rs.829 cr. For the first three quarters
of FY08, sales surged by 14% to Rs.711 cr. whereas net profit increased by 6% to Rs.69 cr.
Its equity capital is Rs.88.2 cr. and with reserves of Rs.547 cr., the book value of its share works out to Rs.72. As on 31
st
March 2007, its debt-equity ratio was 0.51. The value of its gross block is a whopping Rs.1073 cr.
The promoters hold 42% in its equity capital, FIIs hold 2%, Mutual Funds hold 18%, PCBs hold 5% leaving 33% with the
investing public.
Given the scalability of its operations, improving efficiencies, volume growth, the overall business competitiveness and
the highly encouraging prospects of its product line and its foray into the retailing give clear earning potential in coming
years.
With the partial realization from its IPA and realty projects during FY08, DFPCL is expected to post a net profit of Rs.110
cr. on a revenue of Rs.1, 100 cr., which would give an EPS of Rs.12.5.
During FY09, net profit is expected to advance by 40% to Rs.155 cr. on 30% increased sales of Rs.1425 cr. and the EPS
would work out to Rs.17.5.
The share of DFPCL is currently traded at Rs.106 discounting its estimated EPS of Rs.12.5 for FY08 by 7.1 times and FY09E
by 5 times. The average P/E of the fertilizer industry currently rules firm at 9, which leaves good scope for the share to
rise. The share is recommended with a medium-term price target of Rs.130, which would result in an appreciation of
about 50%. The 52-week high/low of the share has been Rs.178/76.
*****
The share of Celestial Labs Ltd. (CLL) (Code: 5332871) (Rs.31.60) is strongly recommended based on its bright prospects
ahead. CLL was incorporated as a private limited company in 1997 as Celestial Technologies Pvt. Ltd. It offers industrial
biotechnology products (industrial enzymes), drug molecule development & licensing, clinical data management, clinical
research trials and bioinformatics services (molecular modeling). It also offers enterprise resources, planning solutions,
database warehousing and bio services like clinical data management, molecular modeling and design and development
of drug molecules.
CLL tapped the capital market in June 2007 with an IPO of 50,00,000 equity shares of Rs.10 each at a price of Rs.60 per
share aggregating Rs.30 cr. to part finance its expansion and setting up of an enzyme manufacturing facility at a cost of
Rs.40 cr.
Celestial Technologies, a division of CLL, is its rapidly growing global IT services unit headquartered in Hyderabad,
India. It was established in 1997 and offers a wide array of customised solutions to various clients across the globe. CLL is
registered with Software Technology Parks of India (STPI), Hyderabad and was awarded the ISO 9001:2000 certification
by American Quality Assessors, USA.
CLL offers bioinformatics services to Government institutions, pharmaceutical and biotech companies, hospitals and
medical centres in India and overseas in the fields of clinical data management, gene sequence analysis, molecular
modelling and design and development of drug molecules dedicated to the health sector and services like ERP
(Celvision), data warehousing and business intelligence solutions to pharma and biotech companies.
CLL is in technology alliance with premier research institutions like Institute of Microbial Technology (a CSIR institution,
Government of India, Chandigarh) in India for development of its products.
It has a technology tie-up with IMTECH for manufacturing industrial enzymes viz. a-amylase and alkaline protease. It
has a MOU with Osmania University for research activities for developing biotech products for treatment of Vitiligo, skin
care and multiple cancers. The company is also in the process of finalising a joint venture with Pennsylvania State
University in Phillipines.
For FY07, although sales increased by 38% to Rs.14.1 cr., net profit jumped by 57% to Rs.5.1 cr. During Q3FY08, too, net
profit shot up by 56% to Rs.1.5 cr. on 21% higher sales of Rs.4.3 cr. During three quarters of FY08, net profit grew by 58%
to Rs.6.9 cr. on 37% increased sales of Rs.11 cr.
The promoters hold 35% in the equity capital, foreign holding is 1.3%, PCBs hold 13% leaving 50.7% with the investing
public. Its equity capital is Rs.11.2 cr. and with reserves of Rs.39.6 cr., the book value of the share works out to Rs.45.5. The
recently raised Rs.40 cr. is being spent on new projects.
The growth of biotechnology at this pace would outgrow the big pharma. At present, USA is dominating the biotech
market. Market forecasts predict that Japan and the EU will see a fall in global market share while the Asia-Pacific region
will see high levels of unprecedented growth. Biopharmaceuticals, diagnostics, bioremediation and industrial enzymes
are the other important major segments of the biotechnology market.
Given the tremendous growth of about 35% p.a. of the current global size of $1.45 billion (Rs.6000 cr.) of biotechnology
market with, more than 2000 products under clinical trials and the increasing use of enzymes in a host of industries, CLL
is poised to carve for itself a place in this upcoming sector with unique products and service and will continue to grow at
an aggressive pace.
CLL is setting up an industrial biotechnology facility to manufacture industrial enzymes, which would also include
development laboratories for carrying out further R&D to develop new related products for reducing wrinkles/stretch
marks and acceleration of wound healing from the same chemical structure of vitiligo. The facility is being set up at the
Shapoorji Pallonji Biotech Park in the Genome Valley at Hyderabad in Andhra Pradesh and is expected to be completed
by June 2008.
Going ahead, CLL would be producing and marketing two industrially important enzymes 'áamylase' and alkaline
'protease' for which it has signed a technology transfer agreement with the Institute of Microbial Technology, another
premier CSIR laboratory.
The company is gearing up to produce industrial enzymes using advanced fermentation techniques/processes. The use of
enzymes in the chemical processing of textiles is rapidly gaining recognition because of their non-toxic and eco-friendly
characteristics.
The total enzymes market in India is estimated to be about Rs.200-250 cr. with a growth rate of 15% p.a. while the global
market is estimated at Rs.2,95,000 cr. growing at 8% p.a. India imports 70% of its total enzyme consumption for
detergents, textiles, starch, pharmaceuticals etc..
During FY08, sales are likely to touch Rs.21 cr. with net profit increasing to Rs.8.7 cr. giving an EPS of Rs.7.8.
During FY09, sales are expected to go up to Rs.40 cr. with a net profit of Rs.13 cr., which would fetch an EPS of Rs.12. At
the CMP of Rs.31.60, the CLL share is traded at a P/E of 4.1 on FY08 EPS of Rs.7.8 and 2.6 on FY09 EPS of Rs.12 is
recommended with a target price of Rs.75 in the medium-term. This would translate into a gain of over 90%. The 52-week
high/low of the share has been Rs.78/33.
16
By Nayan Patel
TECHNO FUNDA
Natural Capsules
BSE Code: 524654
Last close: Rs.23.90
Natural Capsules Ltd. was established in the year 1993 at
Bangalore. The company has a well-equipped modern
manufacturing plant to manufacture hard gelatin capsules
shells, hard cellulose capsule shells and pharmaceutical dosage in capsules.
It has an equity of just Rs.4.28 cr., promoters hold 42.48% stake and the company paid 10% dividend last year.
In January 2008, its share price had touched Rs.49.75 level but it is now available at Rs.24. The company posted an EPS of
Rs.4.30 for the first nine months of FY08 which may touch Rs.6 for the full year. Against the estimated EPS, the stock is
trading at a P/E ratio of just 4.
The company will be allotting warrant and shares to promoters and promoter group at Rs.30. Buy with stop loss of
Rs.19.50 for a medium-term target of Rs.28-30. Thereafter, stock will go up to Rs.35 and later to Rs.49 in the long run.
MONEY FOLIO
Review
Last week, when small cap index & mid cap indices
were down heavily, our recommendation of Garware
Offshore zoomed up to Rs.215.90 level and closed at
Rs.212.20 level from Rs.206 level.
17
Kiri Dyes and Chemicals IPO opens on 25
th
March
Kiri Dyes & Chemicals Ltd. (KDCL) incorporated in 1998, is a manufacturer of Reactive Dyes also known as Synthetic
Organic (S.O. Dyes) and Dye Intermediates is entering the capital market with its IPO of 37,50,000 equity shares of Rs.10
each through the 100% book building route in the price band of Rs.125 to Rs.150 per share. The IPO rated 2/5 by CRISIL
will open for subscription on Tuesday, 25
th
March and close on Wednesday, 2
nd
April 2008 and will be listed on the BSE
and NSE.
It has manufacturing and processing plant of Synthetic Organic Dyes, Acid Dyes and Direct Dyes at Vatva in Ahmedabad
with a combined capacity of 10,800 MTPA and dye intermediates (H-Acid and Vinyl Sulphone) processing plant at Padra
in Vadodara with a capacity of 3600 MTPA each. KDCL complies with all the required environment laws and regulations
and has also obtained ISO 14001 certificate for environmental management system. The products are used in textiles,
leather, paint and printing-ink industries. KDCL supplies reactive, acid and direct dyes as well as dye- intermediates in
various forms like standardized spray dried/ tray dried – powder/granular, crude and reverse osmosis.
The IPO is made to part fund the capex for setting up sulphuric acid and oleum with combined capacity of 1,80,000
MTPA at Vadodara at Cost of Rs.42 cr., to fund expansion of dyes and its intermediates units at cost of Rs.1.74 cr., to fund
additional working capital at cost of Rs.6.69 cr. and to meet issue expenses.
The backward integration project is proposed to be located at Padra, 55 kms from Vadodara in close proximity to
Vadodara, Ankleshwar and Ahmedabad, which are the main markets for Sulphuric Acid in Gujarat. It is setting up the
plant with latest double conversion double absorption technology and a 2.9 MW power plant, which can run from the
steam generated by the Sulphuric Acid plant.
KDCL has entered into a JV with Zhejiang Lonsen Group Stock Co. Ltd., which is listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange
with an initial investment of US $10 mn. in 60:40 ratio. The JV will start with an initial production capacity of 20,000
MTPA and will further scale up to 50,000 MTPA over a period of time.
For FY07, KDCL posted total sales of Rs.133.76 cr. compared to Rs.91.48 cr. in FY06 with net profit of Rs.8.63 cr. against
net profit of Rs.4.48 cr. in FY06. For H1FY08, KDCL reported total sales of Rs.97.01 cr. and PAT of Rs.8.90 cr.
Titagarh Wagons IPO opens on 24
th
March
Titagarh Wagons Ltd. (TWL), primarily engaged in the business of manufacturing railway wagons, heavy earth moving
and mining equipment, bailey bridges, steel and SG iron castings, is entering the capital market with its IPO of 23,83,768
equity shares of Rs.10 through the 100% Book Building Process in the price band of Rs.540 and Rs.610 per equity share.
The issue will open on Monday, 24
th
March and will close on Thursday, 27
th
March 2008 and will be listed on the BSE and
NSE. It has been rated 3/5 by Fitch indicating average fundamentals.
Titagarh Wagons Limited operates two manufacturing facilities located at Titagarh and Uttarpara, in West Bengal. The
Uttarpara unit functions as its second manufacturing plant for wagons, in addition to manufacturing heavy earth moving
and mining equipment. As an Industry Partner to the Defence Research and Development Organisation, Ministry of
Defence (DRDO), the Company also manufactures other products for the Indian Defence establishment, such as special
purpose wagons, shelters and other engineering equipments.
The objects of the Issue are to utilise the proceeds towards the purposes of a) Setting up an EMU manufacturing facility at
Uttarpara unit, b) Modernising and expanding the existing facilities at Titagarh and Uttarpara units, c) Setting up an axle
machining and wheelset assembly facility at Uttarpara unit, d) Constructing a corporate office and a design cum research
and development office, e) Strategic acquisition or investments, f) Brand building exercise and g) General corporate
purposes.
For FY07, TWL recorded a total income of Rs.284 cr. with PAT of Rs.29.2 cr. against Rs.124.46 cr. with PAT of Rs.12.85
while it closed H1FY08 with an income of Rs.211.6 cr. with PAT of Rs.24.3 cr.
Confidence Petroleum acquires Petro Logistic company Agwan Coach
Confidence Petroleum India Ltd., the flagship company of the Nagpur based Rs.250 cr. Confidence Group, involved in
the business of LPG Cylinder manufacturing, LPG Bottling, LPG Marketing, LPG Blending, Auto LPG Cylinder
Manufacturing and Auto LPG Dispensing for more than a decade has taken over Mumbai based Petro Logistic company
Agwan Coach Pvt. Ltd.
Agwan Coach is in the business of providing logistic support to oil companies from the last 14 yrs. In addition to
acquiring the logistic company Confidence Petroleum has also received a work order from BPCL for around 30,000MT
P.A. Also, the Andhra Pradesh Govt. has allotted 10 acre of land in a SEZ at Vishakhapatnam to establish a CNG cylinder
manufacturing plant to the company.
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Disclaimer: Investment recommendations made in Money Times are for information purposes only and derived from sources
that are deemed to be reliable but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Money Times or the analyst/writer does
not accept any liability for the use of this column for the buying or selling of securities. Readers of this column who buy or sell
securities based on the information in this column are solely responsible for their actions. The author, his company or his
acquaintances may/may not have positions in the above mentioned scrip.