$$ DreamGains !! $$ Sachin Chavan Total Newsletter - 26th Jul 2007

Sachin Chavan Daily Total Newsletter - Jul 26, 2007
Tel: 022 - 25308355                           Email: mail@sachinchavan.com                     Mobile: 098203-16390 Website: www.sachinchavan.com Please read the disclaimer at the end of this page. Read this newsletter only if you agree with it.
	Learning  Center:	"Life is an ocean of love. Flow the lamp of knowledge in it. Even let the knowledge be flown away in the ocean of love" - Sri Sri Ravi Shankar
Part I: Market Overview & Nifty
	Overview
	The overbought state caught up with the market and with many leaders correcting, the rally has taken a breather. The late afternoon bounce yesterday confirms that the market is resilient, yet volatility is but expected in such periods. As was said earlier, traders remaining thin are likely to benefit more.
	One can see in Part II of this newsletter, how we have moved towards no positions to coincide with the market state.
	Nifty
	Current Spot Rate	Supports		Resistances		Trend
		S2	S1	R1	R2	MT	ST
	4589	4380	4450	4770	4900	Bullish	Ovrbot
	MT = Medium Term (3-12 weeks forecast); ST = Short Term (1-14 days forecast)
	Out-performers (for upto next 3 months)						Under-Performers (for upto next 3 months)
	Media, Cap Goods, Banks, Power, Metals						Tech Majors, Refining majors, Sugar
	Out-performer' dooes not necessarily mean bullish, but that it can perform better than the overall market. 'Similarly, 'Under-performer' does not necessarily mean bearish, but that it can perform worse than the overall market.
	Market Barometer (for short term only)
	Based on the prevailing market trend, this section mentions to what extent it is preferable to hold long positions, short positions or remain univested for a short-term trader at this time.
	Short term position:		Long (plus)			Short (minus)			Uninvested
	Break-up:		Med			None			Med
Media Schedule:		Wed, Jul 18   11:00am-12:00pm:  'Sauda Apka', CNBC Awaaz
		Wed, Jul 18   09:40am-10:30am:  Zee Business
		Wed, Jul 18   03:00pm-03:40pm:  '2.30 Factor', NDTV Profit
	Click here for Details and Registration for Paid Daily Newsletter
	Salient News (from public domain)
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Part II: Equity and Derivative Break-outs (for 1-4 weeks)
	c  Patel Engg completed target (483) amounting to 6.9% profit in 13 days. c.
	c  Blue Star Inds completed target (264) amounting to 6.5% profit in 16 days. c.
	c  Pantaloon derivative yielded 23% return on margin capital in 1 day. Equivalent profit per lot = Rs 12000. c.
	c  BRFL stopped at 218, equivalent to loss of 12% c.
	The following scrips have provided short-term breakouts at the points mentioned. Likely target/s and stoplosses commensurate with the breakout are also given below.  These are based only on technical analysis and are for informational purpose alone.
	A breakout can be either bullish or bearish. Bullish breakouts would have targets above and stoplosses below and vice-versa for bearish breakouts. The mode tells whether the breakout is more suitable for equity (delivery-based) or derivatives trading.
	Scrip	Break-out Point			Likely Targets		Stop loss	Current Price	Targets Completed		Mode
		Type	Date	Price	T1	T2
	None
	Updated levels are highlighted in yellow. All prices mentioned are NSE equity prices (even for derivative breakouts)
Part III: ASI Analysis of Major 50 Scrips
	Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Table
	Absolute Strength Index (ASI) is a technical indicator created by the analyst to indicate the bullishness/flatness/bearishness of any scrip. ASI values for 50 major scrips are updated in the table everyday.
	Read below to understand ASI and what purpose it serves.
	Description of ASI ASI, the forward looking proprietary indicator, represents absolute strength of a scrip. There are two ASI's:							Indicative Key to Use ASI = 70-100 ->  Bullish ASI = 60-70   ->  Mildly Bullish
	- Medium term (3-12 weeks forecast) and - Short term (1-14 days forecast),  plotted in the grid above							ASI = 40-60   ->  Flat ASI = 30-40   ->  Mildly Bearish ASI = 0-30     ->  Bearish
	Note1: ASI < 30% does not mean 'oversold' but indicates weakness (fall expected ), and ASI > 70 does not mean 'overbought' but indicates strength (rise expected)
	How to Use
	The probability of success of a new Long (plus) position is better if MT trend is Bullish AND ST trend has just turned Bullish (underlined as Bullish). New long positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is overbought/ correcting down/bearish.
	The probability of success of a new Short (minus) position is better if  MT trend is Bearish AND ST trend has just turned Bearish (underlined as Bearish ). New short positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is oversold/correcting up/bullish.
	The rates mentioned below are 'equity' rates and not 'futures' rates.
	Scrip	CMP	Medium Term (MT)				Short Term (ST)
			ASI	Trend	Target		ASI	Trend	Target
	Nifty	4589	98	Bullish	4900		67	Ovrbot	-
	ACC	1066	71	Bullish	1180		44	Flat	1020-1160
	Bajaj Auto	2354	31	Flat	2100-2675		64	Flat	2300-2480
	BPCL	314	21	Bearish	280		14	Bearish	295
	Bharti Airtel	947	95	Bullish	960		97	Bullish	960
	BHEL	1787	98	Bullish	1950		77	Ovrbot	-
	Century Text	712	88	Bullish	825		44	Flat	690-750
	Cipla	186	26	Flat	175-260		11	Ovrsold	-
	Dabur	101	64	Bullish	115		27	Corr Dn	-
	Dr Reddy's	661	45	Flat	550-810		23	Flat	650-690
	GAIL	329	90	Bullish	360		63	Ovrbot	-
	Grasim	2967	83	Bullish	3220		59	Ovrbot	-
	Guj Ambuja	129	69	Bullish	148		47	Corr Dn	-
	HCL Tech	319	62	Flat	285-360		14	Bearish	305
	HDFC Bank	1239	88	Bullish	1280		96	Bullish	1280
	HDFC	1966	86	Bullish	2250		64	Flat	1885-2025
	Hero Honda	699	33	Bearish	615		61	Corr Up	-
	Hind Lever	202	43	Flat	175-240		66	Flat	195-210
	Hind Petro	257	21	Bearish	235		23	Bearish	235
	Hindalco	183	71	Bullish	210		69	Ovrbot	-
	I - Flex	2267	67	Bullish	2660		9	Corr Dn	-
	ICICI Bank	958	98	Bullish	1015		29	Corr Dn	-
	IDBI	111	81	Bullish	130		36	Corr Dn	-
	Indian Hotels	141	64	Flat	130-160		16	Bearish	140
	IPCL	379	100	Bullish	420		96	Ovrbot	-
	Infosys	1989	60	Flat	1820-2280		73	Flat	1900-2030
	ITC	166	38	Flat	145-195		69	Ovrbot	-
	Jet Airways	772	25	Flat	700-950		34	Flat	730-815
	L&T	2569	98	Bullish	2800		64	Ovrbot	-
	M&M	782	55	Flat	590-860		41	Flat	770-840
	Maruti	810	43	Flat	720-860		39	Flat	800-845
	Nalco	288	86	Bullish	330		43	Flat	280-300
	ONGC	934	69	Bullish	1040		67	Bullish	965
	PNB	553	79	Bullish	625		46	Flat	530-590
	Ranbaxy	341	26	Bearish	330		10	Bearish	330
	Rel. Capital	1244	98	Bullish	1340		79	Ovrbot	-
	Rel. Energy	779	81	Bullish	860		94	Ovrbot	-
	Reliance Ind	1903	98	Bullish	1980		87	Ovrbot	-
	Satyam	488	88	Bullish	530		43	Flat	470-530
	SCI	218	95	Bullish	230		59	Flat	210-225
	SBI	1569	100	Bullish	1840		49	Flat	1500-1620
	Steel Authority	153	100	Bullish	170		54	Flat	145-165
	Tata Chem	257	79	Bullish	280		71	Bullish	280
	Tata Steel	709	86	Bullish	740		76	Ovrbot	-
	Tata Motors	726	40	Flat	660-920		33	Flat	720-780
	Tata Power	685	93	Bullish	710		69	Flat	655-700
	TCS	1148	45	Flat	1050-1250		33	Flat	1120-1200
	VSNL	473	93	Bullish	525		26	Corr Dn	-
	Wipro	499	40	Flat	435-630		3	Bearish	480
	Zee Telefilms	338	100	Bullish	350		79	Bullish	350
\
	Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Plot
	Click here to learn the stock codes used in the plot below.
	Note: Scrip name in Red Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has reduced substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Green Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has increased substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Black Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has remained same
Disclosure:
The analyst holds long term investments in various Reliance group companies (including Reliance Industries, Reliance Capital, Reliance Energy, Reliance Natural Resources and Reliance Communications).
The analyst has business relations with Reliance Money, a Reliance Capital company. The analyst and his dependents have no positions in other stocks/futures.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter and the opinions/break-outs mentioned therein are for informational purpose only and not a recommendation or an offer or solicitation of an offer to any person with respect to the purchase or sale of the stocks/futures discussed in this report. I, Sachin Chavan (author), do not accept any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipient &  reader of this material should rely on their own investigations and take professional advice. Subscribers, recipients and readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their actions and shall not hold the Author liable for any investment decisions/ actions or any other action (including abstaining from action) based on the Content provided. Information is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The information provided is based on the theory of Technical Analysis. All levels mentioned, including break-out, target, stoploss are only informative. Trading and investment in stock market is risky and volatile. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from the author.  - Sachin Chavan

 

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