Sensex

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

$$ DreamGains !! $$ Sachin Chavan Total Newsletter - 26th Jul 2007

Sachin Chavan Daily Total Newsletter - Jul 26, 2007

 Tel: 022 - 25308355                           Email: mail@sachinchavan.com                     Mobile: 098203-16390
Website: www.sachinchavan.com
Please read the disclaimer at the end of this page. Read this newsletter only if you agree with it.

Learning 
Center:

  "Life is an ocean of love. Flow the lamp of knowledge in it. Even let the knowledge be flown away in the ocean of love" - Sri Sri Ravi Shankar

 

Part I: Market Overview & Nifty

Overview

The overbought state caught up with the market and with many leaders correcting, the rally has taken a breather. The late afternoon bounce yesterday confirms that the market is resilient, yet volatility is but expected in such periods. As was said earlier, traders remaining thin are likely to benefit more.

One can see in Part II of this newsletter, how we have moved towards no positions to coincide with the market state.

Nifty

 

Current Spot Rate

Supports

Resistances

Trend

 

S2

S1

R1

R2

MT

ST

4589

4380

4450

4770

4900

Bullish

Ovrbot

 

 

MT = Medium Term (3-12 weeks forecast); ST = Short Term (1-14 days forecast)

 

Out-performers (for upto next 3 months)

Under-Performers (for upto next 3 months)

Media, Cap Goods, Banks, Power, Metals

Tech Majors, Refining majors, Sugar

Out-performer' dooes not necessarily mean bullish, but that it can perform better than the overall market. 'Similarly, 'Under-performer' does not necessarily mean bearish, but that it can perform worse than the overall market.

Market Barometer (for short term only)

Based on the prevailing market trend, this section mentions to what extent it is preferable to hold long positions, short positions or remain univested for a short-term trader at this time.

  Short term position: 

Long (plus)

 

Short (minus)

 

Uninvested

 

Break-up:

Med

None

Med

Media Schedule:

Wed, Jul 18   11:00am-12:00pm:  'Sauda Apka', CNBC Awaaz

Wed, Jul 18   09:40am-10:30am:  Zee Business

Wed, Jul 18   03:00pm-03:40pm:  '2.30 Factor', NDTV Profit

 

 

 

Click here for Details and Registration for Paid Daily Newsletter

 

Salient News (from public domain)

p

p

p

p

p

p

p

p

 

Part II: Equity and Derivative Break-outs (for 1-4 weeks)

 

c  Patel Engg completed target (483) amounting to 6.9% profit in 13 days. c.

c  Blue Star Inds completed target (264) amounting to 6.5% profit in 16 days. c.

c  Pantaloon derivative yielded 23% return on margin capital in 1 day. Equivalent profit per lot = Rs 12000. c.

c  BRFL stopped at 218, equivalent to loss of 12% c.

 

The following scrips have provided short-term breakouts at the points mentioned. Likely target/s and stoplosses commensurate with the breakout are also given below.  These are based only on technical analysis and are for informational purpose alone.

 

 

A breakout can be either bullish or bearish. Bullish breakouts would have targets above and stoplosses below and vice-versa for bearish breakouts. The mode tells whether the breakout is more suitable for equity (delivery-based) or derivatives trading.

 

 

Scrip

Break-out Point

Likely Targets

Stop
loss

Current Price

Targets Completed

Mode

Type

Date

Price

T1

T2

None

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Updated levels are highlighted in yellow. All prices mentioned are NSE equity prices (even for derivative breakouts)

 

 

Part III: ASI Analysis of Major 50 Scrips

 

Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Table

 

Absolute Strength Index (ASI) is a technical indicator created by the analyst to indicate the bullishness/flatness/bearishness of any scrip. ASI values for 50 major scrips are updated in the table everyday.

Read below to understand ASI and what purpose it serves.

Description of ASI
ASI, the forward looking proprietary indicator, represents absolute
strength of a scrip. There are two ASI's:

Indicative Key to Use
ASI = 70-100 ->  Bullish
ASI = 60-70   ->  Mildly Bullish

- Medium term (3-12 weeks forecast) and
- Short term (1-14 days forecast),  plotted in the grid above

ASI = 40-60   ->  Flat
ASI = 30-40   ->  Mildly Bearish
ASI = 0-30     ->  Bearish

Note1: ASI < 30% does not mean 'oversold' but indicates weakness (fall expected ), and ASI > 70 does not mean 'overbought' but indicates strength (rise expected)

How to Use

The probability of success of a new Long (plus) position is better if MT trend is Bullish AND ST trend has just turned Bullish (underlined as Bullish). New long positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is overbought/ correcting down/bearish.

The probability of success of a new Short (minus) position is better if  MT trend is Bearish AND ST trend has just turned Bearish (underlined as Bearish ). New short positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is oversold/correcting up/bullish.

The rates mentioned below are 'equity' rates and not 'futures' rates.

 

Scrip

CMP

Medium Term (MT)

Short Term (ST)

 

 

ASI

Trend

Target

ASI

Trend

Target

 

 

Nifty

4589

98

Bullish

4900

67

Ovrbot

-

 

 

ACC

1066

71

Bullish

1180

44

Flat

1020-1160

 

 

Bajaj Auto

2354

31

Flat

2100-2675

64

Flat

2300-2480

 

 

BPCL

314

21

Bearish

280

14

Bearish

295

 

 

Bharti Airtel

947

95

Bullish

960

97

Bullish

960

 

 

BHEL

1787

98

Bullish

1950

77

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Century Text

712

88

Bullish

825

44

Flat

690-750

 

 

Cipla

186

26

Flat

175-260

11

Ovrsold

-

 

 

Dabur

101

64

Bullish

115

27

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Dr Reddy's

661

45

Flat

550-810

23

Flat

650-690

 

 

GAIL

329

90

Bullish

360

63

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Grasim

2967

83

Bullish

3220

59

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Guj Ambuja

129

69

Bullish

148

47

Corr Dn

-

 

 

HCL Tech

319

62

Flat

285-360

14

Bearish

305

 

 

HDFC Bank

1239

88

Bullish

1280

96

Bullish

1280

 

 

HDFC

1966

86

Bullish

2250

64

Flat

1885-2025

 

 

Hero Honda

699

33

Bearish

615

61

Corr Up

-

 

 

Hind Lever

202

43

Flat

175-240

66

Flat

195-210

 

 

Hind Petro

257

21

Bearish

235

23

Bearish

235

 

 

Hindalco

183

71

Bullish

210

69

Ovrbot

-

 

 

I - Flex

2267

67

Bullish

2660

9

Corr Dn

-

 

 

ICICI Bank

958

98

Bullish

1015

29

Corr Dn

-

 

 

IDBI

111

81

Bullish

130

36

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Indian Hotels

141

64

Flat

130-160

16

Bearish

140

 

 

IPCL

379

100

Bullish

420

96

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Infosys

1989

60

Flat

1820-2280

73

Flat

1900-2030

 

 

ITC

166

38

Flat

145-195

69

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Jet Airways

772

25

Flat

700-950

34

Flat

730-815

 

 

L&T

2569

98

Bullish

2800

64

Ovrbot

-

 

 

M&M

782

55

Flat

590-860

41

Flat

770-840

 

 

Maruti

810

43

Flat

720-860

39

Flat

800-845

 

 

Nalco

288

86

Bullish

330

43

Flat

280-300

 

 

ONGC

934

69

Bullish

1040

67

Bullish

965

 

 

PNB

553

79

Bullish

625

46

Flat

530-590

 

 

Ranbaxy

341

26

Bearish

330

10

Bearish

330

 

 

Rel. Capital

1244

98

Bullish

1340

79

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Rel. Energy

779

81

Bullish

860

94

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Reliance Ind

1903

98

Bullish

1980

87

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Satyam

488

88

Bullish

530

43

Flat

470-530

 

 

SCI

218

95

Bullish

230

59

Flat

210-225

 

 

SBI

1569

100

Bullish

1840

49

Flat

1500-1620

 

 

Steel Authority

153

100

Bullish

170

54

Flat

145-165

 

 

Tata Chem

257

79

Bullish

280

71

Bullish

280

 

 

Tata Steel

709

86

Bullish

740

76

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Tata Motors

726

40

Flat

660-920

33

Flat

720-780

 

 

Tata Power

685

93

Bullish

710

69

Flat

655-700

 

 

TCS

1148

45

Flat

1050-1250

33

Flat

1120-1200

 

 

VSNL

473

93

Bullish

525

26

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Wipro

499

40

Flat

435-630

3

Bearish

480

 

 

Zee Telefilms

338

100

Bullish

350

79

Bullish

350

 

\

 Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Plot

Click here to learn the stock codes used in the plot below.

Note: Scrip name in Red Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has reduced substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Green Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has increased substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Black Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has remained same

 

Disclosure:

The analyst holds long term investments in various Reliance group companies (including Reliance Industries, Reliance Capital, Reliance Energy, Reliance Natural Resources and Reliance Communications).

The analyst has business relations with Reliance Money, a Reliance Capital company. The analyst and his dependents have no positions in other stocks/futures.

Disclaimer:

This newsletter and the opinions/break-outs mentioned therein are for informational purpose only and not a recommendation or an offer or solicitation of an offer to any person with respect to the purchase or sale of the stocks/futures discussed in this report.

I, Sachin Chavan (author), do not accept any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipient &  reader of this material should rely on their own investigations and take professional advice. Subscribers, recipients and readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their actions and shall not hold the Author liable for any investment decisions/ actions or any other action (including abstaining from action) based on the Content provided. Information is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The information provided is based on the theory of Technical Analysis. All levels mentioned, including break-out, target, stoploss are only informative. Trading and investment in stock market is risky and volatile.

This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior
permission from the author.
 - Sachin Chavan

 

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BigGains !!
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