Sensex

Thursday, May 20, 2010

Re: [sharetrading] HIGH RISK

And this one too :ID.

On 5/21/10, kk s <kumar40@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
> sorry abbe can u plase give the meaning of this acrynoms?? it is total
> bouncers over my head!!
>
>
>
> RT
>
> RA
>
> CF
>
> cue
>
>
>
> thanks once again for all the help
>
> Kumar
>
>
>
> To: sharetrading@yahoogroups.com
> From: abrahamap@airtelmail.in
> Date: Fri, 21 May 2010 07:55:55 +0530
> Subject: [sharetrading] HIGH RISK
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> RT may buy 4900 MAY call at lowest available….. Close posn at best then… RA
> may CF.
>
>
> Abe
>
>
>
>
> _________________________________________________________________
> View photos of singles in your area! Looking for a hot date?
> http://clk.atdmt.com/NMN/go/150855801/direct/01/


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**[investwise]** CLSA: Collateral Damage

 

CLSA
Collateral Damage
Christopher Wood
(Austin May7, 2010)

First, a point of sentiment. GREED & fear is often asked what is the consensus
among investors. In GREED & fear's view there is no overwhelming consensus on equities. Continuing meetings in America this week reveal that there is a healthy two-way debate on US equities while the consensus bullishness on emerging market equities is by now much less pronounced than what it was at the end of last year. But where there is an overwhelming consensus is on US Treasury bonds.

The consensus is of the view that it makes no sense to lend money to the US government for 30 years at a present rate of 4.4%. GREED & fear has a
lot of sympathy with this view. But the question is still whether the 30-year Treasury bond yield drops to 2.5% again and the 10-year to 2% again, or even lower, before there is a supply driven surge in yields.

The Break-Up of Euro, Greece, the motley nations called PIIGS and a bust of China Real Estate will negatively impact Australia, Brazil and China.

But there will be major beneficiaries-Overweight India, Indonesia

It is increasingly clear that Indonesia and India are the two Asian economies with

the greatest potential to move to a higher level of sustainable growth over the next five years, with the key variable being the potential for a sustained infrastructure cycle. Clearly, the portfolio has always been heavily invested in India since its inception on 1 October 2002 and will remain so.

The machine gun burst of tightening measures directed at the Chinese property market in
recent weeks has begun to impact the global commodity trade and related stocks. The MSCI AC World Materials Index has fallen by 6% in US dollar terms so far this week and is down 10% since mid April.

This is no surprise, as discussed here last week (see GREED &fear – PRC policy risk, 29 April 2010). Indeed it is the natural follow on trade from the negative head wind already seen in Chinese property stocks and to a lesser extent in Chinese bank stocks. The next potential area of vulnerability will be the derating of high multiple Chinese consumer stocks.

In the meantime, the short term market focus will remain on the trend in China property transactions and prices. The latest data available this week points to a sharp decline in transactions. Thus, average daily residential sales in the 13 big mainland cities have fallen by 38% during the first five days of May compared with the average sales during 18-30 April, which was down 21% from the sales during 1-17 April.

But the other area which in GREED & fear's view deserves more focus is the secondary market in residential property. With the mainland Chinese cultural dislike for buying "used" flats, the secondary market has been slow to develop in China though it has of late become increasingly active in the likes of Shanghai and Beijing.

Still with many Chinese owning multiple flats, and with the Chinese government now sending signals that a property tax is in the works which would raise the holding cost of owning vacant property, there is clearly the potential for the secondary market to go "offer-only"; most particularly as GREED & fear now hears that government officials are being investigated for multiple ownership of properties.

Meanwhile, GREED & fear expects that, sooner or later, the PRC will fill the gap left by a slowing private property market by announcing a far more comprehensive government subsidised scheme for low cost housing than currently exists, possibly on a Singapore-style HDB model or a Brazil-style model where developers would be told the profit margin they can charge.

This will create a new growth story. On this related point, the government announced in March that it plans to build 3m flats of government subsidised housing for low-income families and rebuild 2.8m shanty houses this year.

Still this is for the future. The current negative policy signals create continuing negative head winds for China-related equities. Still as this week's action in commodity stock makes clear, the risk is now that China-related concerns spread to other markets or sectors perceived as China geared.

In this respect it is worth remembering that A shares and Chinese property stocks
quoted in Hong Kong led, in that order, the recovery in world markets from the late 2008 credit crisis lows. The risk is that the sideways to down action in A shares and China property stocks since August last year could be viewed as a negative lead indicator for the global risk trade as a whole.

The money will be deployed by adding two more percentage points to hopefully still low beta Malaysia and another percentage point to India where a declining oil price is a fundamental positive.

As for the Asia ex-Japan long-only thematic portfolio, GREED & fear wants to reduce the beta a little. GREED & fear is therefore going to undo a change made here recently by re-introducing India's SBI into the portfolio and removing Yes Bank. The percentage invested in Indian financials will remain the same.

In China GREED & fear is also now more comfortable owning life insurance companies than banks. In this respect, a three percentage point investment will be introduced in China Taiping Insurance, a growth story on life insurance, which will be paid for by shaving the existing investment in China Life. This is simply to diversify the sector bet.

The recent rising newsflow about the China banking regulator investigating the collateral, if
any, for Chinese banks' lending to local governments' special purpose vehicles (SPV) last year makes GREED & fear increasingly nervous, especially as a lack of adequate collateral is likely to lead to a demand for greater provisioning.

There is also a rising risk that the SPV concerns feed into related property concerns. GREED & fear is, therefore, going to remove ICBC from the portfolio. It will be replaced by a four percentage point investment in Astra International of Indonesia and an extra percentage point to the existing investment in Indocement.

The long-only portfolio has not had enough in Indonesia in the recent past. Any further
correction in Indonesia caused by China related concerns will be used to increase positions in this market.


Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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**[investwise]** Henkel India-Where Are The Profits For A Rs 60 stock? [1 Attachment]

 
[Attachment(s) from Maverick included below]

FYI

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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Attachment(s) from Maverick

1 of 1 File(s)

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INVESTMENTS IN INDIA
We are low-risk, long-term investors. 

Stocks, mutual funds and the entire investment gamut.  Only financing/investment avenues in India will be discussed. 

For any assistance, questions or improvement ideas, contact investwise-owner@yahoogroups.co.in

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NEW! ==== Check our LINKS and FILES sections for a world of information. REGULARLY UPDATED.

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**[investwise]** Buy The Weakness In Gold!

 

Buy some gold before the final velocity phase begins!

As the rupee falls against the USD, Rupee value of Gold will rise.

Why?  There are plenty of reasons.  New supply is shrinking globally while demand is growing due to currency weakness around the globe, worldwide financial chaos, and political crisis. 

The euro is under attack due to financial problems with the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) - in particular, Greece.  Euro holders are looking for sanctuary.  Some claim that UBS (United Bank of Switzerland) is leveraged at 70 to 1, or more.  By year end, America will have its own PIIGS situation as California, Michigan, New York, Illinois, Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, New Jersey, and other states begin looking for their turn at the bailout trough.


Gold is going to continue benefiting as foreigners look beyond loading up with more dollars.  China, India, and Russia are interested in significantly increasing their gold reserves.  India recently bought several hundred tons from the IMF, and Russia and China are talking about increasing their gold holdings by more than 1,000 tons each.


Foreign demand of this magnitude will act as a floor on gold.  These big kids will be willing buyers during future weakness, and it is always wise to side with the big kids.  Remember, gold is real money; and while some foreign currencies may temporarily gravitate into U.S. dollars, more currency investors will seek out gold from here on out. 


We just narrowly escaped a terrorist attack in Times Square, and the Homeland Security guys are telling us there is a real threat of another attack on the U.S. in the next three to six months.  Heaven forbid; but if there is another "black swan" event, gold will suddenly break higher, leaving underinvested folks chasing a tornado.  I look for $50 to $100 dollar up days during the coming velocity stage.






Now that gold is beginning to soften after testing last year's high, we are focusing on the next buying opportunity.


Only by buying weakness and selling strength can you hope to manage risk and enhance profits.  It is important this late in the commodity bull that you stop paying too much for your precious metals investments.  Finding the right place to buy is every bit as important as finding the right place to sell.


I have been a gold bull since the Long Term Gold Indicator told us to begin shifting from financial assets into tangibles, and we have been recommending gold since it was $250/oz.


It is difficult to find yield these days.  There are few opportunities for you to find generous yields in the gold market, but gold is where you will enjoy the biggest capital gains over the next two years.  However, the crude oil and energy sectors offer ample avenues to generating handsome dividends. 



Do not trust this stock market rally to continue much longer!


Late in 2008 while the stock market was getting drubbed, my work indicated that a surprising rally was going to begin in the spring of 2009.  That rally launched in March 2009, and it has been relentless up to now.  Timing models like Palio confirmed the move by locking on with buy signals and sticking with the trend all this time.


The same indicators that warned us in 2008 to expect a strong rally are beginning to reflect readings just the opposite of those late 2008 bullish omens.  Our work is looking as bearish now as it was bullish before the current rally began.  Furthermore, my cyclical work looks very negative from spring into the fall of this year. 


Since the market's high in 2000, gold (the commensurate tangible asset) has appreciated from $250/oz. to over $1,200/oz., or 380%.  The Dow Industrial Average (the quintessential financial asset) is still down 24% from its high, and the Nasdaq is down a whopping 50% since topping out in 2000 – even after the remarkable rally we have seen over the last year.  The Long Term Gold Indicator knows where your money should be.


We are no longer at the beginning of the bull market in commodities, but we are not at the end either.  The commodity bull will carry gold (and other raw materials, including crude oil) much higher.  The gold bull will continue until the indicator hits the sell line on the chart above. 


Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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Stocks, mutual funds and the entire investment gamut.  Only financing/investment avenues in India will be discussed. 

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[sharetrading] Re: Nifty 4900 call. Unable to see other msgs

 

Abv 57 on your own. Take profits as per RA…

--- In sharetrading@yahoogroups.com, "A P Abraham" <abrahamap@...> wrote:
>
> I guess 48 is a good price
>
>
>
> Abe
>

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[sharetrading] Nifty 4900 call

 

I guess 48 is a good price

 

Abe

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[sharetrading] Re: NIFTY ID

 

It appears the shorting oppurtunity may not appear....
As of now the call is open for ID only
Abe

--- In sharetrading@yahoogroups.com, "A P Abraham" <abrahamap@...> wrote:
>
> Short at will and make merry with 4980 as SL SPOT.
>
> Shorting below 4909 can be done without any fear...
>
>
>
> Preferable to take shots below 4926. But below 4940 action starts..RISK IS
> ALL YOURS>....
>
> Close position at best available ID
>
>
>
> Pls note. ID a rise is seen early morning, after a drop... So wait for the
> high creation, breach of the points mentioned earlier downwards after a high
> creation lowers SL to those points.... Do not jump the gun. May be shorting
> opportunity may not be available today...
>
> NO CF of short positions please. Better to be long/neutral at EOD as US has
> closed near 10K levels..
>
> Abe
>

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**[investwise]** Bulls: Do Not Bet Against The Trend; Short HDFC, HDFC Bk, SBI & ICICI

 

"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's how the smart money bets."--Damon Runyon

Like most really good quotations, Damon Runyon's memorable reworking of Ecclesiastes 9:11 exists in a bunch of different versions.  It's one of my favorites in the cynical, wised-up style, taking an original bubble of sentiment that basically says, "You can do anything!" and puncturing it with a jab of common sense.

Runyon was a sportswriter and a lifelong gambler, so his use of "smart money" was no accident.  The slightly shady characters he wrote about--the ones that formed the basis for the musical "Guys and Dolls"--all wanted to believe that they were savvier and more clued-in than the average mark, square or schmo.

Well, wouldn't we all.  There are lots of people who want to be right even more than they want to be rich.

If you're one of them, today's your lucky day, because I'm going to give you one rule that will allow you to gain a reputation as a very savvy individual indeed.

Here it is.  In just 10 words.

Market goes up, get in.  Market goes down, get out.

You wait for the market to go up before getting in for the same reason sailing ships wait until the tide is going out before they leave port. It's also the reason people who want to go up step on the up escalator rather than the one going down. 

Of course it's still possible to find advancing stocks when the markets are going down.  If you had bought stock in the biomedical company Amgen (AMGN) in March 2008 at 39, you could have sold it a year later, when the market bottomed, at 52. 

But believe me, with the S&P 500 Index plummeting from 1342 to 667 (a 50% drop, which is the equivalent of a haircut that stops at your beltline) during the same period, it was anything but easy to find winners at the time.

So why am I telling you this?  Two reasons.  First, it's because the tide of the market is now against us.  We had a correction from January 19 to February 5 that dropped the S&P 500 by 9.2%.  Then came a nearly 17% rally from February 5 to April 26 that pulled even more money into the market.

The correction that began on April 27 has now (as of May 19) trimmed 8.8% off the S&P 500 from that April high and dropped it below its 25- and 50-day moving averages.

Translation: Escalator going down.  Time to sell all but your strongest stocks and curtail new buying.

But the second reason is even more important.  It's that this market correction will continue until it wrings out enough hot money, dumb money and worried money from the market.  And at that point, there will be an entire smorgasbord of attractively priced stocks available to those who can recognize a new leg of this bull market in its infancy.

Just as getting out of a down market saves your money, getting into a new up market makes you money.  But the dumb money is still groaning and holding its head, wondering what hit it.

So there you have it, a recipe for smartness in just 10 words. Market goes up, get in.  Market goes down, get out.


Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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INVESTMENTS IN INDIA
We are low-risk, long-term investors. 

Stocks, mutual funds and the entire investment gamut.  Only financing/investment avenues in India will be discussed. 

For any assistance, questions or improvement ideas, contact investwise-owner@yahoogroups.co.in

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Fw: Investor's Eye: Update - Bharti (Maintain Hold), Telecom (3G auction ends), Oil & gas (APM gas price hiked)

 
Investor's Eye
[May 20, 2010] 
Summary of Contents

STOCK UPDATE

Bharti Airtel
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Hold
Price target: Rs350
Current market price: Rs260

Maintain Hold

Key points 

  • Selective bidding limits outgo: After 34 days and 183 rounds of bidding, 3G auction finally ended with Bharti Airtel (Bharti) managing to bag licenses in 13 out of the 22 circles committing Rs12,295 crore. Though the overall bidding process turned out to be quite aggressive, the overall 3G license spend of Rs12,295 crore by Bharti is well within the market expectations due to its strategy of selective participation. It has lapped up Mumbai and Delhi? the two most lucrative circles by revenue and subscriber penetration; further in circle A and B it has played selective. 
  • Robust Q4 and strong balance sheet provide comfort: In spite of intense competition, Bharti?s mobile revenues grew by 3% quarter on quarter (qoq) on the back of a strong bounce-back in minutes of usage, wherein the overall traffic grew by a strong 12.8% qoq to reach 173 billion minutes. Moreover, after incorporating 3G spectrum fee and debt for Zain Telecom?s acquisition, Bharti?s FY2012E net debt/earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) at 2.6x compares favourably to that of Reliance Communications at 3.5x and Idea Cellular?s 3x. Apart from this, we expect the shrill competition in the telecom industry to ease a bit as most telecom operators will have their balance sheets stretched after 3G auction and an equally aggressive bidding for the forthcoming broadband wireless access (BWA).
  • EPS dilution of 14% but largely priced in: After incorporating 3G capital expenditure (licensing plus rollout) into our FY2012 estimates we expect a 14% dilution in our earnings per share (EPS) estimate to Rs19.9. However, the stock has underperformed BSE Sensex by 16% year to date and 51% in the last 12 months. Given the strong correction, its current valuation of 6.8x its FY2012 EV/EBITDA is close to its historical bottom and compares at par or at discount to Asia Pacific players like Taiwan Mobile and Singapore Telecom. 
  • Maintain Hold rating: We maintain our cautious stance on the telecom sector and maintain Hold call on Bharti with a price target of Rs350. In spite of a significant upside to our price target, we maintain a Hold rating on the stock on the fact that the key risks?the lack of clarity on 2G spectrum allocation and pricing, and the likelihood of the introduction of mobile number portability (MNP) services?continue to remain an overhang on the company. Further the stock also remain beset with uncertain outcome of the soon-to-start BWA auctions.

SECTOR UPDATE

Telecommunication

3G auction ends; straining balance sheets 

Key points

  • Final bid price 4.8x the base price, no pan-India player: The final pan-India price of Rs16,751 crore for 3G auction is 4.8 times the base price of Rs3,500 crore, while the government?s revenue collection of Rs67,719 crore from 3G auction alone is whopping 1.93 times the envisaged estimate of Rs35,000 crore (from both 3G and BWA auction). Where around two-fold rise in auction prices is a positive development for the government, the aggressive bidding is negative for telecom operators. Bharti Airtel (Bharti) would be shelling out Rs12,295 crore for 13 circles, Vodafone?s out go stands at Rs11,618 crore (for 9 circles), Reliance Communications? is at Rs8,585 crore (13 circles), Aircel?s Rs6,499 crore (13 circles) and that of Idea Cellular at Rs5,769 crore (11 circles). It is seen that players have been selective in their bids and have tried to get allocation in the circles that contributes maximum to their revenue kitty and wherein they have a strong market share.
  • MTNL to be under pressure: As per the agreement, Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL) and Mahanagar Telecom Nigam Ltd (MTNL) will have to match the auction bids, resulting in an outflow of Rs10,187 crore and Rs6,564 crore for them respectively. This will not only wipe out the entire cash on books of MTNL but in fact the company will have to take debt to pay for the same. As a result, MTNL?s stock will come under pressure.
  • Significant strain on balance sheets: The 3G license outflow and the ensuing rollout capital expenditure (capex) would strain the balance sheets of telecom operators, as the funding is expected to be financed through bank borrowings. We expect the strain to be highest on Reliance Communications followed by Idea Cellular. Bharti Airtel will be least affected with its net debt/EBITDA expected to increase to 2.6x from 0.2x. 
  • Fragmented spectrum allocation may necessitate sharing: Looking at different circles acquired by the incumbents, it seems that some of the players adopted a strategy of gaining spectrum across a geographical corridor. Notably, Aircel won most of the southern and eastern circles, while Tata Docomo covered the western and northern parts. We believe that complementary distributions may be useful in deriving synergies when consolidation starts in earnest.
  • PSU banks likely to benefit: 3G auction is expected to have some positive fallout on banks, as most of the spectrum fee outgo would be funded by bank borrowings. This will result in a strong growth in the advances of some large public sector (PSU) banks; we expect Rs18,000-20,000 crore worth of advances growth for the State Bank of India. Moreover, these are long-term borrowing and would have a positive impact on the benefiting bank?s margins. 
  • Maintain cautious view on the sector: Given the aggressive bidding for 3G auctions, we expect BWA auction to attract equal attention from operators, which will further strain their balance sheet. Coupled with this, the impending risk of one-time 2G spectrum fee, the reframing of spectrum and the introduction of mobile number portability (MNP), the sector remains beset with significant uncertainties. Thus we continue to maintain our cautious stance on the sector.

Oil & gas

APM gas price hiked 
The government has positively surprised the street with a sudden hike in the APM gas price as the issue has been pending for long. This development is the government?s first move towards a market-linked gas price mechanism in India. This also increases the hope for de-regulation of auto fuel (petrol and diesel) and cooking fuels (domestic LPG and PDS kerosene) in the country, which is a positive sign for state-owned upstream companies and oil marketing companies (OMCs: Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation). And we expect ONGC and OIL to outperform in the near term.


Click here to read report: Investor's Eye

 

Regards,
The Sharekhan Research Team
myaccount@sharekhan.com 

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