Sensex

Wednesday, August 08, 2007

$$ DreamGains !! $$ FW: PowerYourTrade Trading Calls

 

 

From: mailer9-bounces@mailman3.moneycontrol.com [mailto:mailer9-bounces@mailman3.moneycontrol.com] On Behalf Of PowerYourTrade
Sent: 09 August 2007 08:53
To: alerts@poweryourtrade.com
Subject: PowerYourTrade Trading Calls

 

Trading Calls for 09th August 2007

Ashwani Gujral

Buy Dena Bank with stop loss of Rs 53 for target of Rs 71.

Buy Dena Bank with stop loss of Rs 53 for target of Rs 71.

Disclosure: Neither me, nor my family nor our clients have any position in the above stock. However we run a substantial newsletter, chatroom and money mgmt business and this can change at any time in the future.

Buy JP Hydro with stop loss of Rs 38 for target of Rs 59.

Buy JP Hydro with stop loss of Rs 38 for target of Rs 59.

Disclosure: Neither me, nor my family nor our clients have any position in the above stock. However we run a substantial newsletter, chatroom and money mgmt business and this can change at any time in the future.

 

 

Rajat K Bose

Buy HDFC with stop loss below Rs 2035 for targets of Rs 2125 and Rs 2148. This is a day trading recommendation.

Buy HDFC with stop loss below Rs 2035 for targets of Rs 2125 and Rs 2148. This is a day trading recommendation.

Note: Either on the long side or on the short side if at any moment a counter is not moving beyond an initial or interim target to the final target book profits. Once initial target is crossed, you can use that as your trailing stop-loss level.

Notes:

·  All prices relate to the NSE, unless otherwise mentioned.

·  Calls are based on the previous trading day's price activity.

·  The call is valid for the next trading session only unless otherwise mentioned.

·  Stop-loss levels are given so that there is a level below/above, which the market will tell us that the call has gone wrong. Stop-loss is an essential risk control mechanism; it should always be there.

·  Trading involves considerable risk. Trade at your own risk to the extent you are comfortable. The analyst shall not be responsible for any losses incurred for acting on these recommendations.

Disclosure:The analyst and his family do not have any trades in the securities recommended above at the time of giving this recommendation. His newsletter clients have been recommended the same along with other picks. Traders are requested to adhere to the stop losses very strictly; they are given to be implemented, not ignored. Do not chase a security and take a position where you would be uncomfortable with the stop-loss level. Take a position only when you feel that the risk-reward ratio looks comfortable and favourable for the trade.

Buy NTPC with stop loss below Rs 168 for targets of Rs 173.50 and Rs 177. This is a day trading recommendation.

Buy NTPC with stop loss below Rs 168 for targets of Rs 173.50 and Rs 177. This is a day trading recommendation.

Note: Either on the long side or on the short side if at any moment a counter is not moving beyond an initial or interim target to the final target book profits. Once initial target is crossed, you can use that as your trailing stop-loss level.

Notes:

·  All prices relate to the NSE, unless otherwise mentioned.

·  Calls are based on the previous trading day's price activity.

·  The call is valid for the next trading session only unless otherwise mentioned.

·  Stop-loss levels are given so that there is a level below/above, which the market will tell us that the call has gone wrong. Stop-loss is an essential risk control mechanism; it should always be there.

·  Trading involves considerable risk. Trade at your own risk to the extent you are comfortable. The analyst shall not be responsible for any losses incurred for acting on these recommendations.

Disclosure:The analyst and his family do not have any trades in the securities recommended above at the time of giving this recommendation. His newsletter clients have been recommended the same along with other picks. Traders are requested to adhere to the stop losses very strictly; they are given to be implemented, not ignored. Do not chase a security and take a position where you would be uncomfortable with the stop-loss level. Take a position only when you feel that the risk-reward ratio looks comfortable and favourable for the trade.

 

 

Deepak Mohoni

Buy Orbit Corp below Rs 398.50 with stop loss of Rs 391. This is a day trading recommendation

Buy Orbit Corp below Rs 398.50 with stop loss of Rs 391. This is a day trading recommendation.

These are intra-day trading recommendations. Use trailing stops once the position is taken. The extreme price of the previous 45-90 minutes at any time can be used as the trailing stops.

I have no position in any of these stocks at the time of writing (0955 hours, 9th Aug 2007), nor am I aware of any family members or clients holding positions in these stocks. The stocks may or may not have been recommended as buys and/or short sales in the last two months, but that is irrelevant since these are purely day-trading recommendations.

Buy Nagarjuna Fertilizers below Rs 25 with stop loss of Rs 24.25. This is a day trading recommendation.

Buy Nagarjuna Fertilizers below Rs 25 with stop loss of Rs 24.25. This is a day trading recommendation.

These are intra-day trading recommendations. Use trailing stops once the position is taken. The extreme price of the previous 45-90 minutes at any time can be used as the trailing stops.

I have no position in any of these stocks at the time of writing (0955 hours, 9th Aug 2007), nor am I aware of any family members or clients holding positions in these stocks. The stocks may or may not have been recommended as buys and/or short sales in the last two months, but that is irrelevant since these are purely day-trading recommendations.

 

E Mathew

Buy Gayatri Projects with stop loss of Rs 278 for short-term target of Rs 357.

Buy Gayatri Projects with stop loss of Rs 278 for short-term target of Rs 357.

Disclosure: - My associate companies and my clients hold GAYATRI PROJECTS.

Disclaimer: - Mathew Easow and matheweasow.com gives an unbiased and competent picture of trading opportunities and it does that to the best of its abilities. However, prices can move up as well as down due to number of factors, all of which are impossible for anyone to foresee. THEREFORE, Mathew Easow and matheweasow.com cannot accept any responsibility for any investment decision or trading decision taken by readers and clients on the basis of information contained herein.

Short Term Target Means - Approximately 3 Months.

Medium Term Target Means - Anything between 7 - 9 Months.

Long Term Target Means - Anything above 1 Year.

Please follow stop losses very strictly and do not take positions where one is uncomfortable with the stop loss level. Above all Buy or Sell the stock only when the risk - reward ratio vis-a-vis the stop loss is favourable for taking a position.

 

 

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$$ DreamGains !! $$ Wednesday Telefolio : Ador Fontech

 

Ador Fontech

Adorable and affordable

In spite of being a niche engineering company growing sales, profits and dividends consistently every year, the company is available at a forward P/E of just 5.1

Buy

Ador Fontech

BSE Code

530431

NSE Code

Not listed

Bloomberg

CSFT@IN

Reuter

ADOF.BO

52-week High/Low

Rs 110 / Rs 62

Current Price

Rs 96 (as on 8th August 2007)

Ador Fontech (AFL) is an associate company of Ador Welding. It focuses on niche maintenance welding segment.

AFL was incorporated in August 1974, as Cosmics Fontech. It subsequently changed its name to Ador Fontech. In 1992, it acquired Fist India (P) Ltd and Kostech India Pvt Ltd. These companies were subsequently merged with the company as a division.

Sharp growth rates during lean season

The company has registered strong 19% growth in sales, 56% jump in operating profits and a whopping 117% growth in net profits for the first quarter ended June 2007.

While sales rose 19% to Rs 15.97 crore, OPM jumped by 180 basis points to 7.6%. Thus, operating profit jumped by 56% to Rs 1.22 crore.

PBT was up by 82% to Rs 1.09 crore. PAT soared 117% to Rs 65 lakh. June quarter is seasonally lean quarter for the company.

Revenues from the Products Division rose 14% to Rs 14.84 crore. It accounted for 92% of the company’s revenues for the quarter. PBIT from the same increased by 11% to Rs 2.07 crore. It accounted for 80% of the company’s PBIT.

Revenues from the Services Division rose 111% to Rs 1.29 crore. It accounted for 8% of the company’s revenues for the quarter. PBIT from the same increased by 300% to Rs 52 lakh. It accounted for 20% of the company’s PBIT.

Operational and financial efficiency lead growth

Factors that contributed to the growth include benign economic environment, major thrust on key product portfolios like repair welding and ceramics, focused training imparted by foreign principals and the Company's in-house training division ‘DOTES’ (Documentation, Training and educational Services), besides an overall improvement in the KSAO’s (Knowledge, Skill, Attitudes and Other attributes) of the employees.

On the financial front, the company repaid its entire borrowing on working capital, amounting to rupees three crores and forty lakhs (classified under secured loans). This may be deemed to be a major step in the area of operational efficiency.

Niche business on a consistent growth platform

Ador Fontech focuses on maintenance welding, which is a niche segment requiring specialised skills. It offers products and solutions for reclamation welding and recycling of vital machinery components.

The company caters to the ‘Life Enhancement of Vital Machinery Components’. The domain expertise in this sector calls for application of high level of skills covering metallurgy, chemical and repair welding processes. There are quite a few players in this market and competition is keen. Nonetheless, the underlying fact is the contribution that this segment offers to the world at large, in terms of conservation of depleting natural resources, which is substantial. Further, industries in general are benefited by way of greater productivity, resulting from lesser downtime. This unique predisposition, places the organisation on a consistent growth platform.

The company’s product basket includes filler wires, welding equipment/accessories, wire feeders, wearplates and cladded pipes. Apart from manufacturing the said products the company also acts as a value added reseller for Alloy Steel International, Australia; Berkenhoff, Germany; CEA, Italy; Cepro, Netherlands; Degussa, Germany; Delora Stellite, Germany; Euromate, Netherlands; Gasflux, USA; Protector, Australia/Singapore; Sulzer Metco, Swiz /USA for their products in India. It also offers high temperature process for maintenance products from AREMCO, USA for the repair and corrosion protection of metal and refractory materials. Ador Fontech supplies products and services to almost all the core sector and several engineering industries. The focus of its activities is to provide metal joining, reclamation welding and surfacing solutions.

Caters to almost all the core sectors and several engineering industries

Ador Fontech supplies products and services to almost all the core sectors and several engineering industries. Weld repair is commonly used to improve, update, and rework parts so that they equal or exceed the usefulness of the original part. Its major customer base includes mining industries, steel and other metallurgical complexes, power plants, railways, road transport workshops, shipping industries, sugar mills, cement plants, fertilizer and chemical plants, oil drilling and refining sector, defence units and numerous engineering industries.

Almost all its customers now have optimistic growth plans. Worldwide, the demand for metals, alloys and mineral resources is on the rise. This augurs well for Ador Fontech. The other opportunities are in the fields of high productivity welding and cutting systems, welding fume extraction systems, specialised surfacing and hard-facing alloys and deposition equipment.

High dividend yield

In FY 2007, the company gave dividend of Rs 5 per share. During the last 10 years, the company has never missed on dividends and in fact its dividend payout ratio has hovered in between 33% and 68%. This makes the company a high dividend yield stock.

Outlook

Strong growth in manufacturing, shipping and oil industries have increased the requirements of maintenance welding to make best use of available resources (machinery, ships and rigs). Moreover, better demand scenario has lead to old machinery and old factories to get back to operation, increasing the demand for maintenance welding. Increased activity in ship building industry also boosts demand for specialized and reclamation welding.

Further the number of steps initiated by the company to improve customer focus and continuous addition of world class brands to its product spectrum will help it fully capitalise on the better demand scenario.

An important segment of life enhancement solutions is repair and refurbishment, many organisations are strategically outsourcing these business functions. This offers great opportunities for growth and development. Further, technological developments are transforming business processes and operations at phenomenal speed. New product additions, ease in handling of machines/equipment etc. are providing new dimensions towards value added business solutions.

Looking ahead, the company plans to increase its value chain in the manufacture of low heat input welding alloys. The management believes that this coupled with other allied businesses, would provide the necessary growth momentum, that has been set in pace.

Valuation

On the financial front, the company has been a consistent performer with respectable sales and profitability right since 1992. Notably, even during the adverse times, it has never made losses and has always paid dividends.

The company has declared a dividend of 50% for the year ended March 2007 as against 40% in FY 2007. The company has increased dividend rate consecutively for the past four years. Going by the trend one can expect dividend of 60% for FY 2008, giving a dividend yield of 6.25% at the current price.

One can expect the company to report sales and net profit of Rs 92.31 crore and Rs 6.57 crore for FY 08. On a small equity of Rs 3.50 crore and face value of Rs 10 per share, EPS works out to a solid Rs 18.8.

Current price of Rs 96 discounts the FY 2007 actual EPS of Rs 14.6 just 6.6 times. P/E on FY 2008 EPS of Rs 18.8 falls to even more attractive 5.1 times. This means the company is available at a market cap of Rs 33.60 crore, which is only one-third of its expected FY 2008 revenues.

Ador Fontech: Financials

 

 

0403 (12)

0503 (12)

0603 (12)

0703 (12)

0803 (12 P)

Net sales

40.36

54.62

68.95

79.61

92.31

OPM (%)

6.7

7.9

11.2

10.8

11.3

OP

2.70

4.31

7.71

8.62

10.41

Other Inc.

0.91

0.93

1.06

1.11

1.16

PBIDT

3.61

5.24

8.77

9.73

11.57

Interest

0.50

0.44

0.32

0.34

0.14

PBDT

3.11

4.80

8.45

9.39

11.43

Dep.

0.79

0.92

1.06

1.04

1.10

PBT

2.32

3.88

7.39

8.35

10.33

Tax

0.81

0.99

2.94

3.23

3.77

PAT

1.51

2.89

4.45

5.12

6.57

EO

0.00

-0.99

0.00

0.00

0.00

PAT after EO

1.51

1.90

4.45

5.12

6.57

EPS* (Rs)

4.3

8.3

12.7

14.6

18.8

* Annualised on current equity of Rs 3.50 crore; Face Value: Rs 10
EPS is calculated on PAT without considering EO
Figures in Rs crore
EO: Extraordinary items (P): Projections
Source: Capitaline Corporate Databases

 

Ador Fontech: Results

 

 

0706 (3)

0606 (3)

Var. (%)

0703 (12)

0603 (12)

Var. (%)

Sales

15.97

13.46

19

79.61

68.95

15

OPM (%)

7.6

5.8

 

10.8

11.2

 

OP

1.22

0.78

56

8.62

7.71

12

Other inc.

0.16

0.16

0

1.11

1.06

5

PBIDT

1.38

0.94

47

9.73

8.77

11

Interest

0.00

0.07

-100

0.34

0.32

6

PBDT

1.38

0.87

59

9.39

8.45

11

Dep.

0.29

0.27

7

1.04

1.06

-2

PBT

1.09

0.60

82

8.35

7.39

13

Tax

0.44

0.29

52

3.23

2.94

10

Deferred Tax

0.00

0.01

-100

0.00

0.00

--

PAT

0.65

0.30

117

5.12

4.45

15

EPS* (Rs)

#

#

 

14.6

12.7

 

* Annualised on current equity of Rs 3.50 crore; Face Value: Rs 10
# EPS cannot be annualized due to seasonality in business
EPS is calculated on PAT without considering EO
Figures in Rs crore
EO: Extraordinary items
Source: Capitaline Corporate Databases

 

Ador Fontech: Segment results

 

Sales

0706 (3)

0606 (3)

Var. (%)

% to total

0703 (12)

0603 (12)

Var. (%)

% to total

Products

14.84

13.00

14

92

74.66

65.82

13

92

Services

1.29

0.61

111

8

6.06

4.19

45

8

Total

16.13

13.61

19

100

80.72

70.01

15

100

Less Inter segment revenue

0.00

0.00

 

 

0.00

0.00

 

 

Net sales

16.13

13.61

 

100

80.72

70.01

 

100

PBIT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Products

2.07

1.87

11

80

11.75

11.63

1

80

Services

0.52

0.13

300

20

2.85

2.08

37

20

PBT before tax and interest

2.59

2.00

30

100

14.60

13.71

6

100

Less: Interest

0

0

 

 

0.34

0.32

 

 

Less: Other unallocable income

1.50

1.33

 

 

5.91

6.00

 

 

EO

0.00

0.00

 

 

0.00

0.00

 

 

PBT

1.09

0.67

63

 

8.35

7.39

13

 

Capital Employed

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Products

17.37

15.01

16

95

16.97

13.81

23

98

Services

0.82

0.33

148

5

0.42

0.68

-38

2

Total

18.19

15.34

19

100

17.39

14.49

20

100

Figures in Rs crore
Source: Capitaline Corporate Databases

 

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$$ DreamGains !! $$ Intereview with Chairman of L & R-A.M. Naik

I want to build many MNCs within L&T'

A M Naik's children want him to 'take it easy,' but the chairman of the country's largest infrastructure firm, Larsen & Toubro, is still maintaining a hectic 18-hour-a-day routine. The 65-year old Naik talks to Shyamal Majumdar and Kausik Datta on his blueprint to simplify the 'complex' structure of the company, which hopes to achieve the Rs 30,000 crore turnover mark by March 2010, up from Rs 18,000 crore now. Excerpts from the interview:

Que:- L&T is going through a process of restructuring and setting up of new subsidiaries. What's the rationale?

Ans: L&T is already very complex with 62 different businesses and is difficult to manage. So I don't want any further strain on the system. We would get into major new business opportunities through separate companies which will have their own CEOs and boards. Power, for example, is one such vertical. We already have formed a company _ L&T Power projects _ which will be the umbrella company for all power businesses. Other power segments such as boilers and turbines will become separate subsidiaries under L&T Power. There will be several other such companies in areas like shipbuilding. The separate company for shipbuilding will come into being in another couple of weeks. The idea is to create many multinational companies within L&T. Each of these companies can have footprints in many countries and grow into real mega businesses.

Que:- Will you go for dilution of stake in these companies?

Ans: Not before five years. There won't be any opportunities to make money before that as the factories themselves will take at least two years to be operational. At the moment, it is just convenient to spin off the big and new businesses into separate subsidiaries.

Que:-Which are the other new businesses?

Ans Railways. This business is based out of New Delhi and we are looking for a dynamic CEO who can grow the business up to Rs 1,000 crore in three-four years. Defence could be another area. We are interested in entering the submarine project. We have the required expertise and after getting the Raksha Udyog Ratna status, we will be in a better position to bid for future projects. L&T is building Pinaka rocket launchers for two regiments of Indian army and is bidding for the modernisation of Bofors guns. There are many more such orders in the pipeline.

Que:-Have you found CEOs for all the new verticals?

Ans We are talking to a global HR firm for this. Some of these posts will be filled up with insiders. For example, the CEO for the turbines company will be an insider. For the boilers company, we may induct an outsider. For the shipbuilding company, we may have an expat CEO.

Que:-What's your plan for L&T Infotech?

Ans: The listing has been delayed. These things take time. L&T Infotech aims to achieve $1 billion annual revenue in the next three to four years from $287 million now, growing at 50 per cent in each of the last three years. The initial public offer is expected in the second half of 2008-09.

Que:-Will L&T eventually follow the structure of a holding company?

Ans: The problem with a holding company is that we have a double dividend tax now. This is very inefficient. I have spoken with the finance minister on the issue and he said he is looking into it. The Companies Act has to be changed to scrap double taxation. As and when it is done, we may seriously look at spinning off some companies which are not related to each other. L&T is unlike Tata Sons which is mainly an investment company. We are an operating company which is not very big in size but complex. Therefore, we have to put a simplified structure in place to ensure better governance. But in the process, we should not loosen control so much that our businesses can be taken over. L&T ko sab log kha jane ke liye taiyyar hain (People are keen to gobble up L&T). We have resisted it for the last 30 years and will continue to do so.

Que:-Will you ever think of getting back to cement?

Ans: No. There is anyway a lot of brand value attached to L&T as India's premier engineering giant and we don't need to get into any commodity business. We restructured the company in 1999 as per advice from BCG and exited all the businesses we are supposed to get out of. I didn't sell cement just because Kumar Mangalam Birla wanted it; it was a conscious decision.

Que:-What is your broad plan in the financing space?

Ans:At the moment, our target is to grow the finance company, L&T Finance. Last year it grew by 70 per cent. It will grow by another 50 per cent this year. We have just formed L&T Infrastructure Finance and that must mature in the next three to four years. In addition, there is treasury and commodity trading business. These companies should grow up to a sizeable level so that we can fetch value.

Que:-What about a succession plan in L&T?

Ans:We have people retiring in the next three to four years. That's one of the reasons why we are bringing in CEOs for the new companies. We expect some of the nine new CEOs _ a first in the history of L&T _ to graduate to the board level. When I took over in 1999, we didn't recruit even a general manager from outside. That's a big change. Almost the entire board got extension last time_ Why only the board? Quite a few other employees are also getting extensions due to the acute talent shortage. L&T guys are hot property abroad and are also being lapped up by multinationals which are paying four times more than what we can pay. I can hire for $200,000 in the US to head a special business unit (SBU). But with this money_Rs 80 lakh a year_we can't get an SBU head in India! Salaries have gone through the roof, so we are forced to give extensions to employees who are in good health. Only last month, 46 young people left one of our divisions. So extension to existing employees is a safe option. Things should change as we have introduced merit-based compensation and stock options. The L&T stock has not been showing its potential on the bourses_ The new orientation programmes took a lot of time. L&T is a very old company and its stock never went up in 30 years. After I took over five years back, we started focusing on shareholders' value. That's why it is a blue chip company now.

Que:-Don't you think that the management should have taken care of enhancing the shareholders' value even earlier?

Ans: I would not like to comment on anything that concerns my predecessors. All my previous colleagues were excellent. They had limited opportunities in their times when socialism was at its peak, license raj was prevailing, and so on.

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$$ DreamGains !! $$ Sachin Chavan Total Newsletter - 09th Aug 2007

Sachin Chavan Daily Total Newsletter - Aug 09, 2007

 Tel: 022 - 25308355                           Email: mail@sachinchavan.com                     Mobile: 098203-16390
Website: www.sachinchavan.com
Please read the disclaimer at the end of this page. Read this newsletter only if you agree with it.

Learning 
Center:

  "Almost anything you do will be insignificant, but it is very important that you do it" - Mohandas Gandhi

 

Part I: Market Overview & Nifty

Overview

Nifty retraced 50% of the fall during correction when it crossed over 4457. This, and the strong close yesterday indicate a possible end to the corrective phase. Though the Technology stocks were spurred by a government intervention, there was enough bounce in leading sectors such as Power, Cap Goods and Banks to suggest buyers are returning.

Traders can gradually increase their postions remembering that volatility may still be lurking around like the last 2 hours of trading on NYSE yesterday. The short term trend is not yet bullish, but even a consolidation should help the better stocks move.

Nifty

 

Current Spot Rate

Supports

Resistances

Trend

 

S2

S1

R1

R2

MT

ST

4462

4100

4300

4550

4670

Bullish

Flat

 

 

MT = Medium Term (3-12 weeks forecast); ST = Short Term (1-14 days forecast)

 

Out-performers (for upto next 3 months)

Under-Performers (for upto next 3 months)

Power, Cap Goods, Banks

Tech Majors, Refining majors, Sugar

Out-performer' dooes not necessarily mean bullish, but that it can perform better than the overall market. 'Similarly, 'Under-performer' does not necessarily mean bearish, but that it can perform worse than the overall market.

Market Barometer (for short term only)

Based on the prevailing market trend, this section mentions to what extent it is preferable to hold long positions, short positions or remain univested for a short-term trader at this time.

  Short term position: 

Long (plus)

 

Short (minus)

 

Uninvested

 

Break-up:

Medium

None

Medium

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Salient News (from public domain)

p

p

p

p

p

p

p

p

 

Part II: Equity and Derivative Break-outs (for 1-4 weeks)

 

c  Patel Engg completed target (483) amounting to 6.9% profit in 13 days. c.

c  Blue Star Inds completed target (264) amounting to 6.5% profit in 16 days. c.

c  Pantaloon derivative yielded 23% return on margin capital in 1 day. Equivalent profit per lot = Rs 12000. c.

c  Deccan Chronicle, Yes Bank and McDowell were closed at 0%, 2% and 3% losses respectively, as preventive action. c.

 

The following scrips have provided short-term breakouts at the points mentioned. Likely target/s and stoplosses commensurate with the breakout are also given below.  These are based only on technical analysis and are for informational purpose alone.

 

 

A breakout can be either bullish or bearish. Bullish breakouts would have targets above and stoplosses below and vice-versa for bearish breakouts. The mode tells whether the breakout is more suitable for equity (delivery-based) or derivatives trading.

 

 

Scrip

Break-out Point

Likely Targets

Stop
loss

Current Price

Targets Completed

Mode

Type

Date

Price

T1

T2

NTPC

Long

08-Aug

171.5

184

-

DCL<159

171

None

Equity

Lakshmi Bank

Long

08-Aug

      93.30

104

-

DCL<85

97.4

None

Equity

 

Updated levels are highlighted in yellow. All prices mentioned are NSE equity prices (even for derivative breakouts)

 

 

Part III: ASI Analysis of Major 50 Scrips

 

Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Table

 

Absolute Strength Index (ASI) is a technical indicator created by the analyst to indicate the bullishness/flatness/bearishness of any scrip. ASI values for 50 major scrips are updated in the table everyday.

Read below to understand ASI and what purpose it serves.

Description of ASI
ASI, the forward looking proprietary indicator, represents absolute
strength of a scrip. There are two ASI's:

Indicative Key to Use
ASI = 70-100 ->  Bullish
ASI = 60-70   ->  Mildly Bullish

- Medium term (3-12 weeks forecast) and
- Short term (1-14 days forecast),  plotted in the grid above

ASI = 40-60   ->  Flat
ASI = 30-40   ->  Mildly Bearish
ASI = 0-30     ->  Bearish

Note1: ASI < 30% does not mean 'oversold' but indicates weakness (fall expected ), and ASI > 70 does not mean 'overbought' but indicates strength (rise expected)

How to Use

The probability of success of a new Long (plus) position is better if MT trend is Bullish AND ST trend has just turned Bullish (underlined as Bullish). New long positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is overbought/ correcting down/bearish.

The probability of success of a new Short (minus) position is better if  MT trend is Bearish AND ST trend has just turned Bearish (underlined as Bearish ). New short positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is oversold/correcting up/bullish.

The rates mentioned below are 'equity' rates and not 'futures' rates.

 

Scrip

CMP

Medium Term (MT)

Short Term (ST)

 

 

ASI

Trend

Target

ASI

Trend

Target

 

 

Nifty

4462

95

Bullish

4650

37

Flat

4300-4550

 

 

ACC

1025

67

Bullish

1180

47

Flat

950-1060

 

 

Bajaj Auto

2311

31

Flat

2100-2675

33

Bearish

2150

 

 

BPCL

324

24

Bearish

280

51

Flat

300-340

 

 

Bharti Airtel

886

83

Bullish

960

31

Corr Dn

-

 

 

BHEL

1712

95

Bullish

1950

56

Flat

1610-1810

 

 

Century Text

722

86

Bullish

825

66

Flat

680-750

 

 

Cipla

186

26

Bearish

175

23

Ovrsold

-

 

 

Dabur

104

81

Bullish

115

74

Flat

99-106

 

 

Dr Reddy's

630

36

Flat

570-690

13

Ovrsold

-

 

 

GAIL

330

90

Bullish

360

56

Flat

315-345

 

 

Grasim

2989

86

Bullish

3220

69

Flat

2830-3040

 

 

Ambuja Cem.

130

69

Bullish

148

53

Flat

124-134

 

 

HCL Tech

316

62

Flat

285-360

36

Flat

285-330

 

 

HDFC Bank

1172

79

Bullish

1280

51

Flat

1125-1215

 

 

HDFC

2072

100

Bullish

2250

87

Bullish

2250

 

 

Hero Honda

679

33

Bearish

615

50

Flat

630-710

 

 

Hind Unilever

203

43

Flat

175-240

57

Flat

195-210

 

 

Hind Petro

259

26

Bearish

235

53

Flat

245-265

 

 

Hindalco

162

52

Flat

140-200

26

Bearish

154

 

 

I - Flex

2132

50

Flat

1925-2525

27

Ovrsold

-

 

 

ICICI Bank

884

74

Bullish

980

19

Corr Dn

-

 

 

IDBI

121

93

Bullish

140

74

Bullish

126

 

 

Indian Hotels

138

60

Flat

130-160

36

Ovrsold

-

 

 

IPCL

370

93

Bullish

420

50

Flat

345-385

 

 

Infosys

1967

57

Flat

1820-2280

49

Flat

1870-2040

 

 

ITC

167

48

Flat

145-195

60

Flat

160-175

 

 

Jet Airways

766

44

Flat

710-840

56

Flat

720-800

 

 

L&T

2493

86

Bullish

2700

47

Flat

2380-2600

 

 

M&M

690

31

Flat

590-860

17

Ovrsold

-

 

 

Maruti

837

48

Flat

720-990

54

Flat

805-855

 

 

Nalco

261

81

Bullish

300

19

Corr Dn

-

 

 

ONGC

888

60

Flat

820-960

29

Bearish

850

 

 

PNB

521

62

Flat

440-570

29

Flat

500-550

 

 

Ranbaxy

382

38

Bearish

330

79

Corr Up

-

 

 

Rel. Capital

1167

93

Bullish

1340

39

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Rel. Energy

783

79

Bullish

860

67

Flat

730-810

 

 

Reliance Ind

1875

98

Bullish

1980

53

Flat

1790-1940

 

 

Satyam

480

86

Bullish

530

46

Flat

455-505

 

 

SCI

197

86

Bullish

220

21

Corr Dn

-

 

 

SBI

1707

100

Bullish

1840

89

Bullish

1750

 

 

Steel Authority

148

93

Bullish

170

37

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Tata Chem

256

79

Bullish

280

59

Flat

245-270

 

 

Tata Steel

650

83

Bullish

740

23

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Tata Motors

659

31

Flat

630-760

14

Ovrsold

-

 

 

Tata Power

702

90

Bullish

840

56

Flat

670-725

 

 

TCS

1153

52

Flat

1050-1250

37

Flat

1090-1200

 

 

VSNL

440

67

Bullish

495

19

Ovrsold

-

 

 

Wipro

477

40

Flat

435-630

24

Ovrsold

-

 

 

Zee Telefilms

312

95

Bullish

345

16

Corr Dn

-

 

\

 Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Plot

Click here to learn the stock codes used in the plot below.

Note: Scrip name in Red Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has reduced substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Green Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has increased substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Black Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has remained same

 

Disclosure:

The analyst holds long term investments in various Reliance group companies (including Reliance Industries, Reliance Capital, Reliance Energy, Reliance Natural Resources and Reliance Communications).

The analyst has business relations with Reliance Money, a Reliance Capital company. The analyst and his dependents have no positions in other stocks/futures.

Disclaimer:

This newsletter and the opinions/break-outs mentioned therein are for informational purpose only and not a recommendation or an offer or solicitation of an offer to any person with respect to the purchase or sale of the stocks/futures discussed in this report.

I, Sachin Chavan (author), do not accept any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipient &  reader of this material should rely on their own investigations and take professional advice. Subscribers, recipients and readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their actions and shall not hold the Author liable for any investment decisions/ actions or any other action (including abstaining from action) based on the Content provided. Information is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The information provided is based on the theory of Technical Analysis. All levels mentioned, including break-out, target, stoploss are only informative. Trading and investment in stock market is risky and volatile.

This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior
permission from the author.
 - Sachin Chavan

 

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BigGains !!
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