BSEIndia: All Stock Market News: $$ DreamGains !! $$ Sachin Chavan Total Newsletter

Wednesday, August 08, 2007

$$ DreamGains !! $$ Sachin Chavan Total Newsletter - 09th Aug 2007

Sachin Chavan Daily Total Newsletter - Aug 09, 2007
Tel: 022 - 25308355 Email: mail@sachinchavan.com Mobile: 098203-16390 Website: www.sachinchavan.com Please read the disclaimer at the end of this page. Read this newsletter only if you agree with it.
	Learning Center:	"Almost anything you do will be insignificant, but it is very important that you do it" - Mohandas Gandhi

Part I: Market Overview & Nifty

	Overview
	Nifty retraced 50% of the fall during correction when it crossed over 4457. This, and the strong close yesterday indicate a possible end to the corrective phase. Though the Technology stocks were spurred by a government intervention, there was enough bounce in leading sectors such as Power, Cap Goods and Banks to suggest buyers are returning.
	Traders can gradually increase their postions remembering that volatility may still be lurking around like the last 2 hours of trading on NYSE yesterday. The short term trend is not yet bullish, but even a consolidation should help the better stocks move.

	Nifty
	Current Spot Rate	Supports		Resistances		Trend
	Current Spot Rate	S2	S1	R1	R2	MT	ST
	4462	4100	4300	4550	4670	Bullish	Flat

	MT = Medium Term (3-12 weeks forecast); ST = Short Term (1-14 days forecast)

	Out-performers (for upto next 3 months)						Under-Performers (for upto next 3 months)
	Power, Cap Goods, Banks						Tech Majors, Refining majors, Sugar
	Out-performer' dooes not necessarily mean bullish, but that it can perform better than the overall market. 'Similarly, 'Under-performer' does not necessarily mean bearish, but that it can perform worse than the overall market.

	Market Barometer (for short term only)
	Based on the prevailing market trend, this section mentions to what extent it is preferable to hold long positions, short positions or remain univested for a short-term trader at this time.

	Short term position:		Long (plus)			Short (minus)			Uninvested
	Break-up:		*Medium*			*None*			*Medium*


Media Schedule:		Wed, Aug 08 11:00am-12:00pm: 'Sauda Apka', CNBC Awaaz
Media Schedule:		Wed, Aug 08 03:00pm-03:40pm: '2.30 Factor', NDTV Profit

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	Salient News (from public domain)
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Part II: Equity and Derivative Break-outs (for 1-4 weeks)

	c Patel Engg completed target (483) amounting to 6.9% profit in 13 days. c.
	c Blue Star Inds completed target (264) amounting to 6.5% profit in 16 days. c.
	c Pantaloon derivative yielded 23% return on margin capital in 1 day. Equivalent profit per lot = Rs 12000. c.
	c Deccan Chronicle, Yes Bank and McDowell were closed at 0%, 2% and 3% losses respectively, as preventive action. c.
	The following scrips have provided short-term breakouts at the points mentioned. Likely target/s and stoplosses commensurate with the breakout are also given below. These are based only on technical analysis and are for informational purpose alone.
	A breakout can be either bullish or bearish. Bullish breakouts would have targets above and stoplosses below and vice-versa for bearish breakouts. The mode tells whether the breakout is more suitable for equity (delivery-based) or derivatives trading.

	Scrip	Break-out Point			Likely Targets		Stop loss	Current Price	Targets Completed	Mode
	Scrip	Type	Date	Price	T1	T2	Stop loss	Current Price	Targets Completed	Mode
	NTPC	Long	08-Aug	171.5	184	-	DCL<159	171	None	Equity
	Lakshmi Bank	Long	08-Aug	93.30	104	-	DCL<85	97.4	None	Equity
	Updated levels are highlighted in yellow. All prices mentioned are NSE equity prices (even for derivative breakouts)

Part III: ASI Analysis of Major 50 Scrips


	Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Table

	Absolute Strength Index (ASI) is a technical indicator created by the analyst to indicate the bullishness/flatness/bearishness of any scrip. ASI values for 50 major scrips are updated in the table everyday.
	Read below to understand ASI and what purpose it serves.

	Description of ASI ASI, the forward looking proprietary indicator, represents absolute strength of a scrip. There are two ASI's:							Indicative Key to Use ASI = 70-100 -> Bullish ASI = 60-70 -> Mildly Bullish
	- Medium term (3-12 weeks forecast) and - Short term (1-14 days forecast), plotted in the grid above							ASI = 40-60 -> Flat ASI = 30-40 -> Mildly Bearish ASI = 0-30 -> Bearish
	Note1: ASI < 30% does not mean 'oversold' but indicates weakness (fall expected ), and ASI > 70 does not mean 'overbought' but indicates strength (rise expected)

	How to Use
	The probability of success of a new Long (plus) position is better if MT trend is Bullish AND ST trend has just turned Bullish (underlined as Bullish). New long positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is overbought/ correcting down/bearish.
	The probability of success of a new Short (minus) position is better if MT trend is Bearish *AND* ST trend has just turned Bearish (underlined as Bearish ). New short positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is oversold/correcting up/bullish.
	The rates mentioned below are 'equity' rates and not 'futures' rates.

	Scrip	CMP	Medium Term (MT)				Short Term (ST)
	Scrip	CMP	ASI	Trend	Target		ASI	Trend	Target
	Nifty	4462	95	Bullish	4650		37	Flat	4300-4550
	ACC	1025	67	Bullish	1180		47	Flat	950-1060
	Bajaj Auto	2311	31	Flat	2100-2675		33	Bearish	2150
	BPCL	324	24	Bearish	280		51	Flat	300-340
	Bharti Airtel	886	83	Bullish	960		31	Corr Dn	-
	BHEL	1712	95	Bullish	1950		56	Flat	1610-1810
	Century Text	722	86	Bullish	825		66	Flat	680-750
	Cipla	186	26	Bearish	175		23	Ovrsold	-
	Dabur	104	81	Bullish	115		74	Flat	99-106
	Dr Reddy's	630	36	Flat	570-690		13	Ovrsold	-
	GAIL	330	90	Bullish	360		56	Flat	315-345
	Grasim	2989	86	Bullish	3220		69	Flat	2830-3040
	Ambuja Cem.	130	69	Bullish	148		53	Flat	124-134
	HCL Tech	316	62	Flat	285-360		36	Flat	285-330
	HDFC Bank	1172	79	Bullish	1280		51	Flat	1125-1215
	HDFC	2072	100	Bullish	2250		87	Bullish	2250
	Hero Honda	679	33	Bearish	615		50	Flat	630-710
	Hind Unilever	203	43	Flat	175-240		57	Flat	195-210
	Hind Petro	259	26	Bearish	235		53	Flat	245-265
	Hindalco	162	52	Flat	140-200		26	Bearish	154
	I - Flex	2132	50	Flat	1925-2525		27	Ovrsold	-
	ICICI Bank	884	74	Bullish	980		19	Corr Dn	-
	IDBI	121	93	Bullish	140		74	Bullish	126
	Indian Hotels	138	60	Flat	130-160		36	Ovrsold	-
	IPCL	370	93	Bullish	420		50	Flat	345-385
	Infosys	1967	57	Flat	1820-2280		49	Flat	1870-2040
	ITC	167	48	Flat	145-195		60	Flat	160-175
	Jet Airways	766	44	Flat	710-840		56	Flat	720-800
	L&T	2493	86	Bullish	2700		47	Flat	2380-2600
	M&M	690	31	Flat	590-860		17	Ovrsold	-
	Maruti	837	48	Flat	720-990		54	Flat	805-855
	Nalco	261	81	Bullish	300		19	Corr Dn	-
	ONGC	888	60	Flat	820-960		29	Bearish	850
	PNB	521	62	Flat	440-570		29	Flat	500-550
	Ranbaxy	382	38	Bearish	330		79	Corr Up	-
	Rel. Capital	1167	93	Bullish	1340		39	Corr Dn	-
	Rel. Energy	783	79	Bullish	860		67	Flat	730-810
	Reliance Ind	1875	98	Bullish	1980		53	Flat	1790-1940
	Satyam	480	86	Bullish	530		46	Flat	455-505
	SCI	197	86	Bullish	220		21	Corr Dn	-
	SBI	1707	100	Bullish	1840		89	Bullish	1750
	Steel Authority	148	93	Bullish	170		37	Corr Dn	-
	Tata Chem	256	79	Bullish	280		59	Flat	245-270
	Tata Steel	650	83	Bullish	740		23	Corr Dn	-
	Tata Motors	659	31	Flat	630-760		14	Ovrsold	-
	Tata Power	702	90	Bullish	840		56	Flat	670-725
	TCS	1153	52	Flat	1050-1250		37	Flat	1090-1200
	VSNL	440	67	Bullish	495		19	Ovrsold	-
	Wipro	477	40	Flat	435-630		24	Ovrsold	-
	Zee Telefilms	312	95	Bullish	345		16	Corr Dn	-
\

	Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Plot
	Click here to learn the stock codes used in the plot below.
	Note: Scrip name in Red Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has reduced substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Green Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has increased substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Black Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has remained same



Disclosure:
The analyst holds long term investments in various Reliance group companies (including Reliance Industries, Reliance Capital, Reliance Energy, Reliance Natural Resources and Reliance Communications).
The analyst has business relations with Reliance Money, a Reliance Capital company. The analyst and his dependents have no positions in other stocks/futures.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter and the opinions/break-outs mentioned therein are for informational purpose only and not a recommendation or an offer or solicitation of an offer to any person with respect to the purchase or sale of the stocks/futures discussed in this report. I, Sachin Chavan (author), do not accept any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipient & reader of this material should rely on their own investigations and take professional advice. Subscribers, recipients and readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their actions and shall not hold the Author liable for any investment decisions/ actions or any other action (including abstaining from action) based on the Content provided. Information is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The information provided is based on the theory of Technical Analysis. All levels mentioned, including break-out, target, stoploss are only informative. Trading and investment in stock market is risky and volatile. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from the author. - Sachin Chavan