Sensex

Monday, July 23, 2007

$$ DreamGains !! $$ Sachin Chavan Total Newsletter - 24th July 2007

Sachin Chavan Daily Total Newsletter - Jul 24, 2007

 Tel: 022 - 25308355                           Email: mail@sachinchavan.com                     Mobile: 098203-16390
Website: www.sachinchavan.com
Please read the disclaimer at the end of this page. Read this newsletter only if you agree with it.

Learning 
Center:

  "The mind can be calmed through the breath"
 – Sri Sri Ravi Shankar, The Way Back Home

 

Part I: Market Overview & Nifty

Overview

The rally keeps gaining strength as the march towards medium term target of 4900 continues. There are days on which the market does an intra-day adjustment/correction of 1-2% making way for further buying later. Clearly it’s a purple patch, but it may not be right to throw all caution to wind and overleverage.

4450 has established as a new support for Nifty.

Nifty

 

Current Spot Rate

Supports

Resistances

Trend

 

S2

S1

R1

R2

MT

ST

4619

4380

4450

4770

4900

Bullish

Bullish

 

 

MT = Medium Term (3-12 weeks forecast); ST = Short Term (1-14 days forecast)

 

Out-performers (for upto next 3 months)

Under-Performers (for upto next 3 months)

Media, Cap Goods, Banks, Power, Metals

FMCG, Automobile, Tech Majors

Out-performer' dooes not necessarily mean bullish, but that it can perform better than the overall market. 'Similarly, 'Under-performer' does not necessarily mean bearish, but that it can perform worse than the overall market.

Market Barometer (for short term only)

Based on the prevailing market trend, this section mentions to what extent it is preferable to hold long positions, short positions or remain univested for a short-term trader at this time.

  Short term position: 

Long (plus)

 

Short (minus)

 

Uninvested

 

Break-up:

Med

None

Med

Media Schedule:

Wed, Jul 18   11:00am-12:00pm:  'Sauda Apka', CNBC Awaaz

Wed, Jul 18   09:40am-10:30am:  Zee Business

Wed, Jul 18   03:00pm-03:40pm:  '2.30 Factor', NDTV Profit

 

 

 

Click here for Details and Registration for Paid Daily Newsletter

 

Salient News (from public domain)

p

p

p

p

p

p

p

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Part II: Equity and Derivative Break-outs (for 1-4 weeks)

 

c  Cosmo Films completed target (106) amounting to 10.4% profit in 5 days. c.

c  Pantaloon derivative yielded 23% return on margin capital in 1 day. Equivalent profit per lot = Rs 12000. c.

c  BRFL stopped at 218, equivalent to loss of 12% c.

 

The following scrips have provided short-term breakouts at the points mentioned. Likely target/s and stoplosses commensurate with the breakout are also given below.  These are based only on technical analysis and are for informational purpose alone.

 

 

A breakout can be either bullish or bearish. Bullish breakouts would have targets above and stoplosses below and vice-versa for bearish breakouts. The mode tells whether the breakout is more suitable for equity (delivery-based) or derivatives trading.

 

 

Scrip

Break-out Point

Likely Targets

Stop
loss

Current Price

Targets Completed

Mode

Type

Date

Price

T1

T2

Patel Engg

Bullish

12-Jul

452

495

-

DCL<425

473

None

Equity

Blue Star Inds.

Bullish

09-Jul

248

274

-

DCL<235

256

None

Equity

 

Updated levels are highlighted in yellow. All prices mentioned are NSE equity prices (even for derivative breakouts)

 

 

Part III: ASI Analysis of Major 50 Scrips

 

Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Table

 

Absolute Strength Index (ASI) is a technical indicator created by the analyst to indicate the bullishness/flatness/bearishness of any scrip. ASI values for 50 major scrips are updated in the table everyday.

Read below to understand ASI and what purpose it serves.

Description of ASI
ASI, the forward looking proprietary indicator, represents absolute
strength of a scrip. There are two ASI's:

Indicative Key to Use
ASI = 70-100 ->  Bullish
ASI = 60-70   ->  Mildly Bullish

- Medium term (3-12 weeks forecast) and
- Short term (1-14 days forecast),  plotted in the grid above

ASI = 40-60   ->  Flat
ASI = 30-40   ->  Mildly Bearish
ASI = 0-30     ->  Bearish

Note1: ASI < 30% does not mean 'oversold' but indicates weakness (fall expected ), and ASI > 70 does not mean 'overbought' but indicates strength (rise expected)

How to Use

The probability of success of a new Long (plus) position is better if MT trend is Bullish AND ST trend has just turned Bullish (underlined as Bullish). New long positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is overbought/ correcting down/bearish.

The probability of success of a new Short (minus) position is better if  MT trend is Bearish AND ST trend has just turned Bearish (underlined as Bearish ). New short positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is oversold/correcting up/bullish.

The rates mentioned below are 'equity' rates and not 'futures' rates.

 

Scrip

CMP

Medium Term (MT)

Short Term (ST)

 

 

ASI

Trend

Target

ASI

Trend

Target

 

 

Nifty

4619

98

Bullish

4900

93

Bullish

4770

 

 

ACC

1135

74

Bullish

1180

79

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Bajaj Auto

2425

36

Flat

2100-2675

86

Bullish

2440

 

 

BPCL

318

21

Bearish

280

10

Bearish

295

 

 

Bharti Airtel

941

95

Bullish

960

97

Bullish

960

 

 

BHEL

1766

98

Bullish

1800

87

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Century Text

760

88

Bullish

825

67

Bullish

790

 

 

Cipla

192

31

Flat

175-260

7

Bearish

180

 

 

Dabur

100

64

Bullish

115

29

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Dr Reddy's

668

48

Flat

550-810

27

Flat

650-690

 

 

GAIL

339

90

Bullish

360

100

Bullish

360

 

 

Grasim

3032

83

Bullish

3220

100

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Guj Ambuja

135

74

Bullish

148

56

Flat

130-140

 

 

HCL Tech

321

62

Bullish

355

14

Corr Dn

-

 

 

HDFC Bank

1230

88

Bullish

1280

91

Bullish

1240

 

 

HDFC

1992

90

Bullish

2250

70

Flat

1885-2025

 

 

Hero Honda

709

33

Bearish

615

79

Corr Up

-

 

 

Hind Lever

205

43

Flat

175-240

74

Bullish

215

 

 

Hind Petro

252

21

Bearish

235

7

Bearish

235

 

 

Hindalco

185

71

Bullish

210

86

Ovrbot

-

 

 

I - Flex

2363

71

Bullish

2660

9

Corr Dn

-

 

 

ICICI Bank

970

98

Bullish

1015

39

Flat

950-1000

 

 

IDBI

109

81

Bullish

130

31

Corr Dn

-

 

 

Indian Hotels

142

64

Flat

130-160

16

Bearish

140

 

 

IPCL

379

100

Bullish

420

100

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Infosys

1948

57

Flat

1820-2280

33

Flat

1900-2030

 

 

ITC

154

31

Bearish

135

20

Flat

150-158

 

 

Jet Airways

739

25

Flat

700-950

10

Bearish

725

 

 

L&T

2625

98

Bullish

2800

83

Bullish

2800

 

 

M&M

826

57

Flat

590-860

79

Bullish

840

 

 

Maruti

830

43

Flat

720-860

83

Bullish

850

 

 

Nalco

290

86

Bullish

330

51

Flat

280-300

 

 

ONGC

909

67

Bullish

1040

51

Flat

865-930

 

 

PNB

566

79

Bullish

625

59

Flat

550-590

 

 

Ranbaxy

351

26

Bearish

330

23

Flat

340-375

 

 

Rel. Capital

1215

98

Bullish

1340

91

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Rel. Energy

715

81

Bullish

860

87

Bullish

740

 

 

Reliance Ind

1909

98

Bullish

1980

100

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Satyam

491

88

Bullish

530

71

Flat

460-500

 

 

SCI

220

95

Bullish

230

79

Ovrbot

-

 

 

SBI

1585

100

Bullish

1840

56

Flat

1530-1640

 

 

Steel Authority

157

100

Bullish

170

79

Ovrbot

-

 

 

Tata Chem

266

81

Bullish

280

100

Bullish

280

 

 

Tata Steel

721

86

Bullish

740

96

Bullish

740

 

 

Tata Motors

767

48

Flat

660-920

61

Flat

740-785

 

 

Tata Power

669

86

Bullish

710

44

Flat

650-700

 

 

TCS

1191

45

Flat

1050-1250

76

Flat

1160-1200

 

 

VSNL

484

93

Bullish

525

51

Flat

465-500

 

 

Wipro

509

40

Flat

435-630

36

Bearish

480

 

 

Zee Telefilms

339

100

Bullish

350

91

Bullish

350

 

\

 Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Plot

Click here to learn the stock codes used in the plot below.

Note: Scrip name in Red Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has reduced substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Green Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has increased substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Black Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has remained same

Disclosure:

The analyst holds long term investments in various Reliance group companies (including Reliance Industries, Reliance Capital, Reliance Energy, Reliance Natural Resources and Reliance Communications).

The analyst has business relations with Reliance Money, a Reliance Capital company. The analyst and his dependents have no positions in other stocks/futures.

Disclaimer:

This newsletter and the opinions/break-outs mentioned therein are for informational purpose only and not a recommendation or an offer or solicitation of an offer to any person with respect to the purchase or sale of the stocks/futures discussed in this report.

I, Sachin Chavan (author), do not accept any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipient &  reader of this material should rely on their own investigations and take professional advice. Subscribers, recipients and readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their actions and shall not hold the Author liable for any investment decisions/ actions or any other action (including abstaining from action) based on the Content provided. Information is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The information provided is based on the theory of Technical Analysis. All levels mentioned, including break-out, target, stoploss are only informative. Trading and investment in stock market is risky and volatile.

This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior
permission from the author.
 - Sachin Chavan

 

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