* NIFTY/ SENSEX !
Nifty - Ready for Technical Rally to 4505-4510 / Strong support in the Region of 4365-4385
Charts favour Technical Rally in Many Stocks - Select IT and Sugar Stocks to Move up Further
* ITC !
Bullish but overbought in hourly charts -Corrective decline to 165-166 likely
* RNRL !
Breakout from brearish pattern charts favor further decline to 39-Use pull back towards 42 to book profit
* RELIANCE COMMUNICATION !
Highly oversold in extreme short term charts -Ripe for technical recovery to 551-553
* IDBI !
Target of 118-119 well be maintained decline towards 107-108 -May be use for buyiing
* RELIANCE INDS !
Short Term Support Exists at 1850 - Likely to Decline to 1800 if breaks the Support decisively
* GUJRAT NRE COKE!
On verge of bullish breakout in daily charts- Likely to cross 68 on conformation
* GMR INFRA !
Strong support around 850 -Likely to losse Rs.150 on break of support
* MOSER BEAR.!
Short term resistance at 320-Close above 320 will target 350 in 2-3 days
* TATA STEEL.!
Extremely oversold in intra day charts-Buy gradually on declines for target of 680-685
* BALLARPUR INDS!
Bullish breakout in dalily charts -Another close above 130 will target 160+ in few days
* PNB!
Sharp decline from 595-495 in last 6 trading sessions -Over sold in intraday charts for recovery to 530+
* PARASVNATH!
Strong support around 350 -Bearish breakout will target 300 in next few days
* INFOSYS!
Target of 100 maintained -Buy on every decline with SL
* SUZLON ENERGY!
Short term technical recovery target of 1400 maintained -Buy on every decline with SL
* JP ASSOCIATES!
Intraday bullish target of 800+ achieved - Charts favor further rise in EST
* KOTAK BANK!
Mildly bullish in hourly charts -Indicator favor rise to 740 in near term
*CROMPTON GREAVES!
Mildly bullish in hourly charts - Another close 285 above will target 300
* ORBIT CORP!
Heading for 270 -Use pull back towards 320 for profit booking * ANDHRA BANK!
Highly over sold in intraday charts-Ripe for technical recovery to 88
* POLARIS SOFTWARE !
Extreme short term charts rise to135 in next couple of days -Buy on every decline with SL
*DR. REDDY!
Oversold in intra day charts -Technical recovery to 657 likely
*AKRUTI NIRMAN!
Over bought with negative divergencie-Medium term charts in favor of decline to 450 in few weeks
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Nifty/ Sensex: Anticipated High-Lows for the Week
Nifty: High -4,504 .55 : Low -4,330 .81 – 4,375 .18
Sensex: High - 15,437 .97: Low - 14,842 .54 – 14,994 .60
PRESENT STATUS OF THE MARKET AND FUTURE ANTICIPATION: Since the beginning of this month we have been discussing in weekly writeups as to from where an intermediate down correction can start and approx how much could be the correction and how long it is likely to survive – looking at last week’s action (after making new high indices have closed below the closing levels of preceeding 2 weeks and in the process have broken important minor support of 18th July 2007) – now if indices in this week close below 4,402 .57 & 14,962 .45 with black candles while closing in the lower half of the weekly candles then it would be almost confirmed that ‘Intermediate Down Move’ has started but still full & final confirmation would be when Sensex closes in any week below 14,850 .27 with black candle while closing in lower half of the weekly candle and under present setup anticipated lows of this week are 4330 .81 – 4375 .18 & 14,842 .54 – 14,994 .60 (lower levels seem likely) & when ‘Intermediate Sell Mode’ gets confirmed then
FIRST DOWN TARGETS : 4275 .35 – 4321 .35 & 14,526 .44 – 14,663 .25 & after an inbetween rally
NEXT DOWN TARGETS should be : 4090 .20 – 4179 .64 & 13,946 .99 – 14,270 .00
It should be noted that if ‘intermediate sell mode’ is confirmed anytime then minimum present down move should continue till end Aug 2007 & could continue till 3rd week of Sept 2007; further it is to be noted that medium term / long term heavy support is likely to emerge in any case in last years closing / high range i.e. 3,966 .40 – 4,046 .85 & 13,786 .91 – 14,035 .30 in worst case scenario.
Coming to discuss as to whether present down move is an opportunity to accumulate for medium / long term players – YES IT IS – we anticipate that whenever coming ‘intermediate down move’ gets completed after that indices should cross recent highs of 4,647 .95 & 15,868 .85 anywhere before 31st Dec 2007 and could go upto 4,825 .00 & 16,500 .00; further we anticipate highs of 2008 to be above 5,275 .00 & 18,000 .00 which should be made anywhere in the first half of 2008 – only condition is that indices should close present year 2007 above the mid levels of the year which as of now works out to be 4101 .22 & 14,092 .47 (we will change our anticipation of next year 2008 having higher highs & lows than present year 2007 only if at present yearend Sensex closes below opening levels of 13,827 .77).
For medium risk takers we recommended heavy accumulation from levels 4167 .15 & 14,325 .92 in present year keeping in mind pessimistic down levels of 3,957 .15 – 3,976 .80 & 13,461 .07 – 13,799 .08.
TODAY'S TREND: Support in First Half.
2) MEDIUM TERM TREND (INTERMEDIATE) :
It has turned sideways Up.
Last week 188 scrips have closed lower as compared to 131 scrips in the preceding week (av. fall per scrip at 5 .25% is also higher than the av. fall per scrip of 4. 00% in the preceding week) & 41 scrips have closed higher as compared to 97 scrips in the preceding week (av. rise per scrip at 3 .99 % is also lower than the av. rise per scrip of 4 .58% in the preceding week) out of 250 scrips we follow regularly;
Last week’s A-D data is indicating that bears are dominating but in the past it has been seen that such heavy advance – decline ratios combined with large % fall lead to a reasonable short technical rally also.
3) LONG TERM TREND (MAJOR) :
It continues up
4) REVIEW OF OUR 'ON - LINE RECOMMENDATIONS' OF LAST WEEK:
Last week on the buy side 9 trades were recommended involving positions equivalent to 18 .75 % of the capital (11 .25 % on delivery basis) and profit / loss booking was recommended in 14 trades (which included 5 trades of earlier weeks) involving positions equivalent to 33 .85 % of the capital (23.05 % on delivery basis).
In addition under the policy of ‘Sell First Buy Later’ 2 trades were recommended in ‘Nifty August Futures’ involving positions equivalent to 20 .00% of the capital & covering was recommended in both of the same trade involving positions equivalent to 20 .00 % of the capital.
AVE POSITION PER BOOKED DEAL WORKS OUT TO BE = 3.37 % of the capital (our target is 5. 00%).
AVE PROFIT PER BOOKED DEAL WORKS OUT TO BE = 02.02% (our target is 3. 00 %).
BOOKED PROFIT ON THE CAPITAL = 01.09 % (our target is 2. 50%). |
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