BSEIndia: All Stock Market News: $$ DreamGains !! $$ Sachin Chavan Total Newsletter

Wednesday, August 01, 2007

$$ DreamGains !! $$ Sachin Chavan Total Newsletter - 02nd Aug 2007

Sachin Chavan Daily Total Newsletter - Aug 02, 2007
Tel: 022 - 25308355 Email: mail@sachinchavan.com Mobile: 098203-16390 Website: www.sachinchavan.com Please read the disclaimer at the end of this page. Read this newsletter only if you agree with it.
	Learning Center:	"I have no time to be in a hurry" – Henry Thoreau

Part I: Market Overview & Nifty

	Overview
	Correction has set in and if there were any doubts from Tuesday's bounce, they were quelled yesterday the moment 4420 was broken. Indian markets succumbed to the international lending worries and local over-leveraging.
	Though intra-day bounce cannot be ruled out, it would be pragmatic to expect the correction to continue. A small support exists at 4310, but it can give way to 4100 if international pressures do not relent. Traders need not rush in as waiting on sidelines could prove beneficial.

	Nifty
	Current Spot Rate	Supports		Resistances		Trend
	Current Spot Rate	S2	S1	R1	R2	MT	ST
	4346	4100	4310	4540	4650	Bullish	Corr Dn

	MT = Medium Term (3-12 weeks forecast); ST = Short Term (1-14 days forecast)

	Out-performers (for upto next 3 months)						Under-Performers (for upto next 3 months)
	Power, Media, Cap Goods						Tech Majors, Refining majors, Sugar
	Out-performer' dooes not necessarily mean bullish, but that it can perform better than the overall market. 'Similarly, 'Under-performer' does not necessarily mean bearish, but that it can perform worse than the overall market.

	Market Barometer (for short term only)
	Based on the prevailing market trend, this section mentions to what extent it is preferable to hold long positions, short positions or remain univested for a short-term trader at this time.

	Short term position:		Long (plus)			Short (minus)			Uninvested
	Break-up:		*Low*			*Low*			*Medium*


Media Schedule:		Wed, Aug 01 11:00am-12:00pm: 'Sauda Apka', CNBC Awaaz
Media Schedule:		Wed, Aug 01 03:00pm-03:40pm: '2.30 Factor', NDTV Profit

	Click here for Details and Registration for Paid Daily Newsletter


	Salient News (from public domain)
p
p
p
p
p
p
p
p

Part II: Equity and Derivative Break-outs (for 1-4 weeks)

	c Patel Engg completed target (483) amounting to 6.9% profit in 13 days. c.
	c Blue Star Inds completed target (264) amounting to 6.5% profit in 16 days. c.
	c Pantaloon derivative yielded 23% return on margin capital in 1 day. Equivalent profit per lot = Rs 12000. c.
	c BRFL stopped at 218, equivalent to loss of 12% c.
	The following scrips have provided short-term breakouts at the points mentioned. Likely target/s and stoplosses commensurate with the breakout are also given below. These are based only on technical analysis and are for informational purpose alone.
	A breakout can be either bullish or bearish. Bullish breakouts would have targets above and stoplosses below and vice-versa for bearish breakouts. The mode tells whether the breakout is more suitable for equity (delivery-based) or derivatives trading.

	Scrip	Break-out Point			Likely Targets		Stop loss	Current Price	Targets Completed	Mode
	Scrip	Type	Date	Price	T1	T2	Stop loss	Current Price	Targets Completed	Mode
	Yes Bank	Long	31-Jul	189	214	-	DCL<175	181	None	Equity
	Deccan Chron.	Long	30-Jul	239	260	-	DCL<220	231	None	Equity
	Updated levels are highlighted in yellow. All prices mentioned are NSE equity prices (even for derivative breakouts)

Part III: ASI Analysis of Major 50 Scrips


	Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Table

	Absolute Strength Index (ASI) is a technical indicator created by the analyst to indicate the bullishness/flatness/bearishness of any scrip. ASI values for 50 major scrips are updated in the table everyday.
	Read below to understand ASI and what purpose it serves.

	Description of ASI ASI, the forward looking proprietary indicator, represents absolute strength of a scrip. There are two ASI's:							Indicative Key to Use ASI = 70-100 -> Bullish ASI = 60-70 -> Mildly Bullish
	- Medium term (3-12 weeks forecast) and - Short term (1-14 days forecast), plotted in the grid above							ASI = 40-60 -> Flat ASI = 30-40 -> Mildly Bearish ASI = 0-30 -> Bearish
	Note1: ASI < 30% does not mean 'oversold' but indicates weakness (fall expected ), and ASI > 70 does not mean 'overbought' but indicates strength (rise expected)

	How to Use
	The probability of success of a new Long (plus) position is better if MT trend is Bullish AND ST trend has just turned Bullish (underlined as Bullish). New long positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is overbought/ correcting down/bearish.
	The probability of success of a new Short (minus) position is better if MT trend is Bearish *AND* ST trend has just turned Bearish (underlined as Bearish ). New short positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is oversold/correcting up/bullish.
	The rates mentioned below are 'equity' rates and not 'futures' rates.

	Scrip	CMP	Medium Term (MT)				Short Term (ST)
	Scrip	CMP	ASI	Trend	Target		ASI	Trend	Target
	Nifty	4346	90	Bullish	4900		20	Corr Dn	4310
	ACC	967	60	Bullish	1180		27	Corr Dn	-
	Bajaj Auto	2287	31	Flat	2100-2675		24	Flat	2240-2440
	BPCL	308	24	Bearish	280		14	Bearish	300
	Bharti Airtel	863	69	Bullish	960		16	Corr Dn	-
	BHEL	1666	86	Bullish	1950		41	Flat	1575-1840
	Century Text	700	86	Bullish	825		46	Flat	660-750
	Cipla	185	26	Bearish	175		11	Bearish	180
	Dabur	100	69	Bullish	115		29	Corr Dn	-
	Dr Reddy's	623	36	Flat	550-810		4	Ovrsold	-
	GAIL	326	90	Bullish	360		39	Flat	310-345
	Grasim	2846	74	Bullish	3220		44	Flat	2800-3070
	Guj Ambuja	129	67	Bullish	148		46	Flat	122-140
	HCL Tech	298	40	Flat	285-360		7	Bearish	295
	HDFC Bank	1161	76	Bullish	1280		31	Flat	1125-1250
	HDFC	1943	83	Bullish	2250		39	Flat	1880-2020
	Hero Honda	668	33	Bearish	615		13	Flat	650-700
	Hind Lever	202	43	Flat	175-240		53	Flat	190-210
	Hind Petro	245	24	Bearish	235		7	Bearish	235
	Hindalco	159	48	Flat	140-200		29	Bearish	154
	I - Flex	2097	50	Flat	1925-2525		17	Ovrsold	-
	ICICI Bank	891	74	Bullish	1015		14	Corr Dn	-
	IDBI	105	76	Bullish	125		21	Corr Dn	-
	Indian Hotels	136	60	Flat	130-160		23	Bearish	130
	IPCL	357	93	Bullish	420		26	Corr Dn	-
	Infosys	1930	57	Flat	1820-2280		20	Flat	1900-2000
	ITC	167	48	Flat	145-195		64	Ovrbot	-
	Jet Airways	703	23	Flat	650-850		6	Bearish	690
	L&T	2485	86	Bullish	2800		46	Flat	2340-2700
	M&M	693	31	Flat	590-860		6	Bearish	680
	Maruti	821	40	Flat	720-990		41	Flat	800-850
	Nalco	266	86	Bullish	300		11	Ovrsold	-
	ONGC	885	60	Bullish	1040		14	Corr Dn	-
	PNB	487	43	Flat	440-570		10	Ovrsold	-
	Ranbaxy	367	33	Bearish	330		73	Corr Up	-
	Rel. Capital	1110	88	Bullish	1340		30	Corr Dn	-
	Rel. Energy	737	79	Bullish	860		53	Flat	700-790
	Reliance Ind	1798	83	Bullish	1980		30	Corr Dn	-
	Satyam	470	81	Bullish	530		10	Corr Dn	-
	SCI	197	86	Bullish	230		13	Corr Dn	-
	SBI	1548	98	Bullish	1840		41	Flat	1510-1620
	Steel Authority	144	81	Bullish	170		24	Corr Dn	-
	Tata Chem	250	74	Bullish	280		29	Flat	245-270
	Tata Steel	624	83	Bullish	740		23	Corr Dn	-
	Tata Motors	667	31	Flat	635-760		7	Ovrsold	-
	Tata Power	700	90	Bullish	840		57	Bullish	745
	TCS	1115	40	Flat	1050-1250		7	Bearish	1080
	VSNL	450	81	Bullish	525		11	Corr Dn	-
	Wipro	477	40	Flat	435-630		3	Bearish	470
	Zee Telefilms	309	90	Bullish	345		16	Corr Dn	-
\

	Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Plot
	Click here to learn the stock codes used in the plot below.
	Note: Scrip name in Red Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has reduced substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Green Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has increased substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Black Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has remained same



Disclosure:
The analyst holds long term investments in various Reliance group companies (including Reliance Industries, Reliance Capital, Reliance Energy, Reliance Natural Resources and Reliance Communications).
The analyst has business relations with Reliance Money, a Reliance Capital company. The analyst and his dependents have no positions in other stocks/futures.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter and the opinions/break-outs mentioned therein are for informational purpose only and not a recommendation or an offer or solicitation of an offer to any person with respect to the purchase or sale of the stocks/futures discussed in this report. I, Sachin Chavan (author), do not accept any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipient & reader of this material should rely on their own investigations and take professional advice. Subscribers, recipients and readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their actions and shall not hold the Author liable for any investment decisions/ actions or any other action (including abstaining from action) based on the Content provided. Information is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The information provided is based on the theory of Technical Analysis. All levels mentioned, including break-out, target, stoploss are only informative. Trading and investment in stock market is risky and volatile. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from the author. - Sachin Chavan