----- Original Message -----From: PrashanthSent: Saturday, November 28, 2009 9:31 AMSubject: Re: [Technical-Investor] Gold Will Collapse Like Oil Did in 2008: By: Daryl Guppy
Money Control Message Board...that was the inspiration for this group :). I along with SS, Sainik (too busy fighting the war it seems to be able to post messages), Sunil Pathak, among others were quite active there at one point of time. But most of us quit MMB for the simple reason that there was no rational for posting and there were just too many nuisance messages which one had to wander before coming to some message of quality.In my opinion, most message boards like MMB, Traderji are focused on making money through advertisements. This makes them focus only on quantity while ignoring quality. I do not know if one can find threads such as those written here by Abhijit / Vish / Balaji among others elsewhere. The guys who write here write not for the sake of writing but to put their viewpoints (with reasoning) in a way that helps others.Being a US based trader, I feel that you may know about http://www.elitetrader.com/ . I am always surprised about the quality of writings there and wonder why no such exists in India.A group where the members think differently and are able to express the view with reasons is always better than having a group where everyone thinks the same. I differed with Balaji yesterday and by close of day, I have reason to feel that I may have been very wrong, but that's what Analysis is all about. If every analyst conferred on something, I doubt that something would ever happen. Everyone of us have our faults, the idea is to know what they are so as to be able to not fall into the same trap again.CheersPrashanth----- Original Message -----From: KKP_InvestorSent: Saturday, November 28, 2009 9:02 AMSubject: Re: [Technical-Investor] Gold Will Collapse Like Oil Did in 2008: By: Daryl Guppy Wow Sniper, you need stimulating debates every hour/day......You should join Moneycontrol. com debates. You will get plenty of replies from there, some good and some not so good. But, it will keep you going. All that happened in Oil last year is not enough to teach some folks a lesson...... $200 Oil!!!!!! There will not be any cars on US Highways. Same way, who is going to buy gold for any useful purpose at $3000 per ounce. Things need to be an orderly move, and that is all Guppy and others are trying to prove.
Bud, this is a forum where someone posts what Mr Guppy thought, and instead of keeping an open mind about the topping pattern, you are telling us you are bored.
Well, what do you think I am doing......Getting bored to reply to your no-content and single sided messages about Topping in Dow, S&P, US going down etc. But, we don't ask for more stimulating messages from you. We read, understand and appreciate that it is your view and keep going to see who is right and how right is he/she. No one has seen the exactness of the future, but we are all trying hard to paint it (foggily).
So, go back to sleep until you see an exciting title, or ignore this title and ask a few loaded questions about "Why did the couple enter the party with the President of India, and join the debate". You and hundreds of blogs can have a field day 'speculating'.
Sorry, if you don't like the above, but, if you can't say anything valuable, learn to use the 'delete' key. Hope you still kept that one on the keyboard, and did'nt chew it out in your boredom!!!!!
Balaji, keep posting articles......I love what Guppy does and have to say, since I follow his 'MA Band' methodology very closely and trade off it.
KKP
Sniper Trader wrote:No.. i was wide and awake till i read this thread.
I will revisit this thread after x days.. and i m sure i will be still hearing about bubbles/moon shots and busts in gold.I will tell you what is overbought - S&P/Dow. Have you taken a close at it lately ?Yes,,, i m still yawing.. throw me some good stuff we can debate on...which ignites my interest.PS: Yes.. i did buy some silver at lower levels yday.
On Sat, Nov 28, 2009 at 7:52 AM, KKP_Investor <kkpatel1924@gmail.com > wrote:
Sniper Trader, you must have made too many trades last night on Forex and are still sleepy from you big yawns......Look at the OB condition on any chart in Gold. That is what we are talking about and doing a bit of anticipatory thoughts. Anticipatory thoughts by technicians are a bit dangerous, but we can always put in terms of the curling factor coming from W%R, RSI, MFI and Fast-Stoc.
You might be anticipating Pluto and don't like us talking about the Moon for Gold. Let us know!
KKP
Sniper Trader wrote:Yawnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn
nnn...... ......... ...... Is there anything new ppl can contribute...besides talking about moon and bubble when it comes to gold ?
On Sat, Nov 28, 2009 at 1:52 AM, KKP_Investor <kkpatel1924@gmail.com > wrote:
Thanks Balaji for the 'warning shot'. I feel that anytime there is movement that is going on with a single sided direction, like in Gold, it is worth considering a 'sell' as opposed to a buy. Keep the finger on the Sell Trigger, and forget the feeling of left out for now. We are somewhere in the neighborhood of Jul'07 to Jan'08 timeframe of the Equity market when it comes to the Gold market. This does not mean I am forecasting a crash, but a definite correction so that we can indeed go to $2000+ So, S.T. it is topping, and LT it is Bullish. Picture abhi baaki hai, dosto!!!!!!
Now, in my mind it is not a final sell signal since some of the euphoric movement has not technically happened, but it is very close. I would venture to say that we will see that in my broad time frame of 1 month (by end of this year) to Jun'2010. I have a large amount of physical and logical gold holding and keeping a very close eye on it since I do not want my Rs10L+ of profits to vanish in a few days, but I truly feel that the complexity of US Economic results + $ Index (relative to many currencies and DXY) + Inflationary pressures in hot economies + Demand/Supply of Gold/Silver + Special events (Dubai, 9/11 etc) + IndoChina Purchases (IMF + Public) + Next move by China on Yuan (or announcement thereof) has/can/will affect the gold. There is speculation factor already in it, like we had with Oil from $110>$147, but, one final CNBC reported story of Gold going to $3000 will call it final Top and then a good size correction.
When that correction comes, the people who feel left out (for personal, professional, family based reasons) should get into gold. Hold a small single digit % of your portfolio in gold ALL the time. We are Indians (for the most part this has been true on this forum), and therefore, holding an asset like this is critical to our mental satisfaction.
For those in the US, please checkout BullionVault since they are giving 1 gram free to get the account started (sure it is small, but FREE GOLD is something that attracts value shoppers, and today is Black Friday). Black Friday for non-US folks is a BIG SALE event for us. This is where you have to literally stand in lines to get the product, and the early bird gets the worm! I was out there standing in line this morning at 4:30am US time to buy a 1 TeraByte Hard-Disk for $59 and GOT IT. Also got 50pack DVD-R for $4.98 and 100pack CD-R for $4.98......There were Laptops for $199 and Desktops for $199. USB 4GB Flashdrives for $4 etc. Unreal.....Just once a year it happens and anyone who can go, should go.
So, there you have it......More than gold, and much more than you asked for! Happy Friday to all.
KKP
Balaji Jayaraman wrote:
Yes, we are facing a "parabolic rise"….Gold will not rise to the moon..... It's not the end of the $USD Dollar (wake up people!)
A lot of people will GET HURT in Gold by buying @ higher prices, just because everyone else is buying!!!
When it will happen, nobody knows…..One thing I know, for sure it's not gonna send me an e-mail before it does gonna Crash for sure!!!
As of now there are multiple supports for Gold…
Rgds/Balaji
From: Technical-Investor@
yahoogroups. [mailto:Technical-Investor@com yahoogroups. ] On Behalf Of Krish. Venkateshcom
Sent: Friday, November 27, 2009 9:50 PM
To: Technical-Investor@yahoogroups. com
Subject: [Technical-Investor] Gold Will Collapse Like Oil Did in 2008: By: Daryl Guppy
Hi All,
Gold Will Collapse Like Oil Did in 2008: By: Daryl Guppy
The gold price has moved quickly and it has developed an important new uptrend characteristic. This so-called 'parabolic' trend is a dangerous type with a high probability of a sudden collapse.
AP
The original breakout above the psychological resistance level near $1,000 was a breakout from a trading band. Using the trading band the first price target projection was near $1,080. This was achieved quickly.
The same trading and projection method is used to set the next higher target. This target is near $1,160. This target has a high probability it will be achieved.
The breakout above $1,000 started with the characteristics of a rally. The rally has been fulled by a number of reasons: large buying activity of central banks in particular India's Central bank, the decline in the US Dollar, and the anticipation of continued low interest rates in the U.S. among them.
A strong rally breakout typically develops into a sustainable and reliable trend, characterized by retreat and rebound activity within the new up trend development.
However, in the past week, the nature of the rally breakout has changed drammatically. It's no longer a normal uptrend, but best described as a parabolic trend.
The parabolic trend is a curved trend line that captures the acceleration of price. The trend will eventually develop into a vertical line, which is used to define the end of the rising trend.
The characteristic of the parabolic trend is that the trend collapses very rapidly when price moves to the right of the trend line.
The parabolic trend line is divided into three sections:
In the first section the parabolic trend is difficult to recognize. In the second section of the parabolic trend the exit signal is a close below the value of the trend line.
The second section of this parabolic trend is currently developing.
The third section of the parabolic trend is more dangerous. Here the exit signal is a move below the value of the parabolic trend line. Additionally, there is always a time when the price has no choice. Price will automatically move to the right of the trend line and signal the end of the trend.
When this develops, the trend collapses very quickly. The plunge in the oil in 2008 after prices reached $140 was characteristic of this parabolic trend collapse.
This is the risk with the gold trend. When the parabolic trend ends the gold price can move quickly towards support at $1,000. Generally the leverage impact with gold producers and explorers is about 3 to 1. This is an advantage when the gold price goes up. When the price falls this leverage works in the opposite direction and causes a substantial and rapid decline in the price of gold producers and explorers.
Thanks and Best Regards,
K.Venkatesh
-- Plan Your Work and Work Your Plan to Get Ahead in 2009-2012..... KKP Investor ------------ ------------ Bull Markets are Born on Pessimism, Bull Markets Grow on Skepticism, They Mature on Optimism, and Die on Euphoria - Sir John Templeton ------------ --------- --------- ------ Bear Markets are Born on Recessionism, Snowball on Momentum & Technical-Breakdown s, Mature on Eco-Political- Nightmare Talks, and Die on World-Is-Coming- To-An-End Euphoria - KKP ------------ --------- --------- --------- -------- >BUFFET: My rule is to be fearful when others are greedy,and be greedy when others are fearful. All day you wait for the pitch you like, then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. Stay dispassionate and be patient. First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold bars and predicting another Great Depression. Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is jumping in. The time to get interested is when no one else is interested. You can't buy what is popular and expect to do well. ABOVE ALL: Whatever God Does, Accept that as Good; Leave Behind ALL Other Judgements/Justific ations. ------------ --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------- Disclaimer> Do you homework for your ownself and then invest. My ideas are not advice. -- Plan Your Work and Work Your Plan to Get Ahead in 2009-2012..... KKP Investor ------------ ------------ Bull Markets are Born on Pessimism, Bull Markets Grow on Skepticism, They Mature on Optimism, and Die on Euphoria - Sir John Templeton ------------ --------- --------- ------ Bear Markets are Born on Recessionism, Snowball on Momentum & Technical-Breakdown s, Mature on Eco-Political- Nightmare Talks, and Die on World-Is-Coming- To-An-End Euphoria - KKP ------------ --------- --------- --------- -------- >BUFFET: My rule is to be fearful when others are greedy,and be greedy when others are fearful. All day you wait for the pitch you like, then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. Stay dispassionate and be patient. First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold bars and predicting another Great Depression. Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is jumping in. The time to get interested is when no one else is interested. You can't buy what is popular and expect to do well. ABOVE ALL: Whatever God Does, Accept that as Good; Leave Behind ALL Other Judgements/Justific ations. ------------ --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------- Disclaimer> Do you homework for your ownself and then invest. My ideas are not advice. -- Plan Your Work and Work Your Plan to Get Ahead in 2009-2012..... KKP Investor ------------ ------------ Bull Markets are Born on Pessimism, Bull Markets Grow on Skepticism, They Mature on Optimism, and Die on Euphoria - Sir John Templeton ------------ --------- --------- ------ Bear Markets are Born on Recessionism, Snowball on Momentum & Technical-Breakdown s, Mature on Eco-Political- Nightmare Talks, and Die on World-Is-Coming- To-An-End Euphoria - KKP ------------ --------- --------- --------- -------- >BUFFET: My rule is to be fearful when others are greedy,and be greedy when others are fearful. All day you wait for the pitch you like, then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. Stay dispassionate and be patient. First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold bars and predicting another Great Depression. Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is jumping in. The time to get interested is when no one else is interested. You can't buy what is popular and expect to do well. ABOVE ALL: Whatever God Does, Accept that as Good; Leave Behind ALL Other Judgements/Justific ations. ------------ --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------- Disclaimer> Do you homework for your ownself and then invest. My ideas are not advice.
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