Here are results from the our alliance group of 5000+ professionals who represent a wide field of sales, manufacturing, operations, various-sectors, support and advisory-services. My input is part of this survey also.
If you believe the results, then we "should" have some confidence that the current down move is just a 'consolidation' and not a 'bearish move'. This translates to a less than 10% correction in Dow and 20% in Emerging Markets (India, China etc).
PLEASE do not do a mass forward outside of our group since these have copyrights on it that I do not want to see violated. I am sending it out to all of you as my 'investor friends'. Thank you.
Alliance News & Info
February 4, 2010: Volume 8, Issue 4
============
I. CW – Ahead of the Competition
Last week, The Conference Board's consumer confidence Index for January came in much higher than analysts had expected. But it was no surprise to CW Research Network members.
Our January 5-12 consumer spending survey showed "...the best overall spending environment of the past two years" coupled with a major improvement in consumer sentiment.
Here's a quick recap of our January CW report vs. The Conference Board announcement which was released a full week later:
January 20 CW Report: Big Surge in U.S. Consumer Spending
"The signs of improvement we found in our November and December consumer surveys have continued gaining momentum in January ...The CW survey found 29% of U.S. respondents saying they'll spend more over the next 90 days than they did a year ago – and 31% saying they'll spend less. This is a net 10-pt improvement."
In terms of Consumer Expectations, 36% think the overall direction of the U.S. economy is going to improve over the next 90 days compared to just 23% who believe it will worsen. This is the highest level of optimism that we've seen since we began asking this question back in September 2007.
January 27 Reuters Article: U.S. Confidence Hits 16-Month High
"The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence rose for the third straight month in January...
"Its index of consumer attitudes rose to 55.9 in January, the highest reading since September 2008.... The index topped the median forecast from analysts...
"The Conference Board survey showed consumers' expectations at their highest in more than two years....since October 2007."
Just another example of how our survey data keeps us well ahead of the competition.
Note that CW's February Consumer Spending survey is currently in the field and we'll have brand new results that will again tell us exactly where the economy is heading.
II. Strong Momentum for Solar, Wind and Smart Grids in 2010
By Andy Golub and Paul Carton
CW's latest Alternative Energy survey shows strong growth in 2010 for the Wind and Solar sectors, coupled with momentum for Smart Grid technologies.
Not surprisingly, the industry's upbeat growth picture is still largely reliant on government stimulus investments and other government incentives to keep it moving forward.
A total of 195 respondents who work in the Alternative Energy industry participated in the January survey.
Industry Trends – Solar and Wind Lead
Industry respondents report the Wind (49%) and Solar (45%) sectors have experienced the most rapid economic growth over the past year – although the percentages saying this are down slightly since our previous survey in June 2009.
Looking ahead, industry respondents continue to believe Solar (52%; down 1-pt) will achieve the most rapid economic growth over the next 2 years. Wind (39%; up 3-pts) remains second in terms of future growth prospects, followed by Hybrid/ Electric Vehicles (31%; down 3-pts).
We also asked industry respondents how they think their own company's products and services will do in the marketplace going forward, and found an improved outlook compared to our previous survey in June 2009.
- A total of 45% project an Increase in sales of their company's products and services over the next 90 days, while only 2% foresee a Decrease – a net 4-pts better than previously.
- In yet another bullish sign, there has been a major uptick (17-pts) in the percentage of industry respondents who think their capital budget will increase over the next 90 days.
Continued Reliance on Government Initiatives
Three-in-five (59%) industry respondents believe the Federal Government will be the biggest driver of Alternative Energy technologies going forward. To put this in context, only 25% thought similarly back in August 2008.
At the same time, four-in-five (79%) see the Obama administration continuing to provide a Substantial or Moderate investment in energy infrastructure over the next 2 years – yet another indication of high industry expectations for, and reliance on, government investment.
A Closer Look at Solar
We asked 96 respondents working in the solar industry a series of additional questions on their sector – and in an upbeat finding, 94% now see U.S. government subsidies accelerating demand for Solar Photovoltaic (PV) products over the next 12 months.
The companies expected to see the highest rate of sales growth in the solar industry are First Solar (FSLR; 42%), SunTech Power (STP; 23%) and SunPower (SPWRA; 22%), according to industry respondents.
- First Solar is a leader in low-cost Photovoltaics (PV), based on its combination of thin-film technology and large manufacturing scale. One of the dominant solar players based in the U.S., FSLR is aggressively pursuing new solar project business.
- SunTech is among the world's largest PV manufacturers and it's well positioned in its home base of China – the fastest growing solar market in the world. Importantly, with its low-cost production, superior distribution channels, and new initiatives in the U.S. market, STP is emerging as a global force in the solar industry.
- SunPower, a leading U.S. solar firm whose strength lies in its ability to manufacture high-efficiency solar cells, has a strong network of suppliers and installers that gives it an advantage in both the residential and corporate markets.
Smart Grids and Energy Infrastructure
The overwhelming majority of respondents expect 'Smart Grid' technologies to continue to be a major beneficiary of spending going forward, with 89% projecting a spending Increase over the next year.
Companies With Momentum. Industry respondents believe Cree (CREE), Itron (ITRI), Johnson Controls (JCI) and Echelon (ELON) have the greatest growth prospects over the next 1-2 years.
"Cree is a classic technology company that initially struggled to refine its products and to control costs so it could successfully compete in the major lighting markets," says CW Analyst Josh Levine. "But beginning in 2004, CW Research data showed that LED lighting would gain broad adoption, and today we're seeing this growth in action. Cree is now a likely takeover candidate by a major lighting player seeking to get a foothold in the next generation of lighting."
On the U.S. stimulus front, one major winner in the race for government dollars is Itron, a leading developer of smart meters and the infrastructure enabling communication between customers and utilities.
Another company with momentum is Echelon, which recently entered a long-term agreement with electric utility Duke Energy (DUK) to supply smart meters as part of Duke's smart grid program. Duke has also received a $200 million stimulus award for the smart grid improvements in which Echelon will play a key part.
A key goal of the U.S. stimulus package is to boost efficiency across the electric-power grid. And one of the major battery manufacturer and innovators in electrical storage – Johnson Controls – is developing better lithium and advanced batteries for the grid and for automobiles. The survey results point to increasing sales for Johnson Controls going forward, and industry respondents expect it to remain a major player in the sustainable hybrid and electric vehicle industry in the U.S.-- Plan Your Work and Work Your Plan to Get Ahead in 2009-2012..... KKP Investor ------------ ------------ Bull Markets are Born on Pessimism, Bull Markets Grow on Skepticism, They Mature on Optimism, and Die on Euphoria - Sir John Templeton ------------ --------- --------- ------ Bear Markets are Born on Recessionism, Snowball on Momentum & Technical-Breakdown s, Mature on Eco-Political- Nightmare Talks, and Die on World-Is-Coming- To-An-End Euphoria - KKP ------------ --------- --------- --------- -------- >BUFFET: My rule is to be fearful when others are greedy,and be greedy when others are fearful. All day you wait for the pitch you like, then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. Stay dispassionate and be patient. First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold bars and predicting another Great Depression. Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is jumping in. The time to get interested is when no one else is interested. You can't buy what is popular and expect to do well. ABOVE ALL: Whatever God Does, Accept that as Good; Leave Behind ALL Other Judgements/Justific ations. ------------ --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------- Disclaimer> Do you homework for your ownself and then invest. My ideas are not advice.
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/Technical-Investor/files/!Forum Rules of Conduct.txt
No comments:
Post a Comment