Ray:
Prechter has thousands of clients who write to him daily -- at his peak he had 25,000 subscribers. I think it's daunting to respond to so many emails you get every day. I am not defending him, but just because he did not respond to your email does not mean he has an ego.
I have read his book some six times and it was only on my third read I started to understand the Wave theory.
Prechter has thousands of clients who write to him daily -- at his peak he had 25,000 subscribers. I think it's daunting to respond to so many emails you get every day. I am not defending him, but just because he did not respond to your email does not mean he has an ego.
I have read his book some six times and it was only on my third read I started to understand the Wave theory.
From: Ray Seth <rayseth@gmail.
To: Technical-Investor@
Sent: Tue, February 2, 2010 7:18:32 AM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor
I watched Prechter's video on Socionomics, which in my opinion was a travesty of sociology. The man says that bear markets are full of horror movies and bull markets are full of feelgood movies. I did a run on the best horror movies - the scariest and the top grossers - and found that this view was completely unfounded. Further, his oft-quoted skyscraper index is from www.mises.org
I wrote to Bob asking him for clarification but the man never replied. Talk about ego and trading in the markets. On the other hand some highly competent gentlemen like Chuck Le Beau, Perry Kauffman (a Nasa scientist) and Buff Dormeier not only replied to my mail but even shared their ideas freely. Our own Abhijit Phatak too is a guru at simplifying trading for the masses.
I think Prechter did well in bringing RN Elliot's ideas to the fore. I read his earliest book on RN Elliot's ideas. That was far simpler and made more sense. His later so-called Bible of Elliot Wave Theory was simply too complex to be true. I know the market has a rhythm, and that there is an underlying pattern, but if I am supposed to understand Mandelbrot's theory then there is something restrictive about the method. I think that complexity is the problem in Elliot Wave Theory - whether Prechter or Neely.
Regards
Ray
On Tue, Feb 2, 2010 at 5:31 PM, Sniper Trader <snipertrader@ gmail.com> wrote:
Disclaimer : I do not know anything about Elliot Waves. This post is not to bash EW as a study, but the person who carries out the analysis.In other words - Its about the Singer not the Song.Further, This is about Prechter and his take on Gold. I do not track his views on Nifty or other indices. This post is an amalgamation of various sites i visit.SHORT GOLD WHEN I TELL YOU SO! WAIT....I HAVE BEEN TELLING IT FOR 10 YEARS NOW.
According to Reuters, Prechter is out with a new call on gold. Specifically, he expects it to fall 40%, saying the metal "is over-owned and overvalued and is about to resume a bear market, if [it] hasn't already."He has been forecasting declining prices for Gold all throughout its decade long bull run. Yes, you read it right, he was wrong for 10 yrs!! If you toss a coin and trade, there are more chances of making money on Gold than if you had followed Prechter.For example, in March of 2006 when Gold was about $560 he said, "Gold is in the final stages of a speculative surge…technical factors, in conjunction with a complete wave pattern and sentiment, point directly to a decline to at least $460 and probably close to $400". It reached $730 in May and closed that year at around $650.What would have happened if you took his advice and shorted Gold at $360? His long term stock market forecasting isn't that great either (yeah, I know he's made 4-5 correct predictions in the last 40 years), but we'll leave that aside for now.There is an obvious divergence between Prechter and the other wave counter, the masterful and prescient Alf Field who has been spot on for the better part of the last two decades in his predictive and artful interpretation of the Elliot Wave, much more so than anyone else including the Kondriateff Waver, Martin Armstrong. Either one of these two gentlemen prove that sound economic fundamentals grounded in historical understanding inevitably trump the short sighted technical analysis of the small minds circumscribed by mere abstractions.Perhaps, rhe best article that refutes Prechterian theory at its core is here:http://www.gold-eagle.com/ (MUST READ FOR ANYONE WHO CAN COUNT FROM 1 to 5)editorials_ 03/hultberg02050 3.html Finally, Prechter wrote in his book Conquer the Crash that if gold ever got above $400 that he would "...have to reconsider his view of deflation..." Maybe Sriram, being an subscriber to EW can vouch for the above, assuming he has access to the book and maybe even ask a question or two about his defintion of deflation in their forums.I will be posting in a limited fashion from this weekend due to personal reasons. Nothing to do with the colorful arguments and non-working polls.Hope you enjoyed reading this write up as much as i had writing it. Comments are welcome. Sorry no charts here.Cheers!
--
Trading at all skill levels evokes emotions that generate great illusions.
Today's excitement won't move tomorrow's markets
Don't let that small voice of ego tell you that you have special talents.
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