Seriously, which part of the disclaimer people dont get ? It was not as complex as a wave 5 abc correction with wave x.
He also called the Jan 10 top almost to the day asking readers to go 200% short. The S&P dropped 7% after that call.
Most people who are fond of bashing Prechter or EW have no or little clue about the subject and admit to that lack of knowledge too. In the markets everything comes with ifs and buts- all seasoned players know that. Novices seek absolutes. Every call that every seasoned analyst (including Prechter) makes comes with the stoploss caveat. It is only that he has made significantly larger calls compared to most others (who confine themselves to forecasting possibly the next minor or intermediate moves) and that gets noticed, debated and written about.
We all live in a Maggi noodle age of 2 minute gratification. Harping on something that was said or written in a different time and context and not looking at many updates to those views (even if the basic view remains unchanged) such that consistent readers (repeat consistent and not sporadic) of his work are not put in jeopardy, is being totally unfair to the man. Every analyst has his shares of right and wrong. It is only that Prechter's calls have been so large that they get reported much when they are not working out immediately.
I have been following Prechter's work since 1982 (and read ALL his books as well as allied publications of EWI) and have had extraordinary learning about many things in the market as well as outside of it. I would think his EWT is probably one of the longest running newsletters in the world- In know that I have been reading it for 28 years now! I doubt that something that is not of consistent quality can survive that long.
There are many, many things that we do in a lifetime not all of which are exemplary. We need to see the weight of all the work that a man does in his life rather than a few episodes from it before we judge him. I do wish people who criticize take the pain to inform themselves fully so that at least their opinions can be based from knowledge and less from hearsay or peripheral reading.
As usual, this is my personal view. Others may see it differently. It is a free world, after all (at least most of itJ). Don't like it, delete it.
From: Technical-Investor@
yahoogroups. [mailto:Technical-Investor@com yahoogroups. ] On Behalf Of Bob Waitscom
Sent: Wednesday, February 03, 2010 6:49 AM
Dude, this guy has been more or less correct. He called the peak in October 2007 and then asked investors to cover his shorts in Feb 2009 and said to expect a massive rally. Not sure on how you think he has been wrong for 10 years.
From: Sniper Trader <snipertrader@
gmail.com >
To: Technical-Investor@yahoogroups. com
Sent: Tue, February 2, 2010 10:21:00 AM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor] Debunking Prechter
Haha...
Now, in my world, if i am consistently wrong on a thing for 10 yrs straight, i might have fair chance of losing my job. However, he seems to have garnered more supporters!
On Tue, Feb 2, 2010 at 8:47 PM, B SRIRAM <bees2365@yahoo. co.in> wrote:
Sniper,
Thats real sniping!
Read it thru' with interest.Will take some time to dwell into my archives and place counter points, which I will in due course. When subjectivity is involved any particular target may have to be revised. So long as the basics remain in tact nothing else matters. I always act on my own thinking and keep Prechter and Neely and the likes as just reference books.
But your writing throws some thing of an opposite view and don't really think you are the first one against Prechter. If inspite of all the brick bats in the last 10 years he has survived and
B.Sriram
4B, Skylark Apts,
6,Rutlandgate Fifth St.,
Chennai-600006
Ph:+91 44 28334849(Dir) /28332373( Board)
Mobile:+91 98400 63145
Email:bhsppt@gmail. com
--- On Tue, 2/2/10, Sniper Trader <snipertrader@ gmail.com> wrote:
From: Sniper Trader <snipertrader@ gmail.com>
Subject: [Technical-Investor ] Debunking Prechter
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Date: Tuesday, 2 February, 2010, 5:31 PM
Disclaimer : I do not know anything about Elliot Waves. This post is not to bash EW as a study, but the person who carries out the analysis.
In other words - Its about the Singer not the Song.
Further, This is about Prechter and his take on Gold. I do not track his views on Nifty or other indices. This post is an amalgamation of various sites i visit.
Error! Filename not specified.SHORT GOLD WHEN I TELL YOU SO! WAIT....I HAVE BEEN TELLING IT FOR 10 YEARS NOW.
According to Reuters, Prechter is out with a new call on gold. Specifically, he expects it to fall 40%, saying the metal "is over-owned and overvalued and is about to resume a bear market, if [it] hasn't already."
He has been forecasting declining prices for Gold all throughout its decade long bull run. Yes, you read it right, he was wrong for 10 yrs!! If you toss a coin and trade, there are more chances of making money on Gold than if you had followed Prechter.
For example, in March of 2006 when Gold was about $560 he said, "Gold is in the final stages of a speculative surge…technical factors, in conjunction with a complete wave pattern and sentiment, point directly to a decline to at least $460 and probably close to $400". It reached $730 in May and closed that year at around $650.
What would have happened if you took his advice and shorted Gold at $360? His long term stock market forecasting isn't that great either (yeah, I know he's made 4-5 correct predictions in the last 40 years), but we'll leave that aside for now.
There is an obvious divergence between Prechter and the other wave counter, the masterful and prescient Alf Field who has been spot on for the better part of the last two decades in his predictive and artful interpretation of the Elliot Wave, much more so than anyone else including the Kondriateff Waver, Martin Armstrong. Either one of these two gentlemen prove that sound economic fundamentals grounded in historical understanding inevitably trump the short sighted technical analysis of the small minds circumscribed by mere abstractions.
Perhaps, rhe best article that refutes Prechterian theory at its core is here:
http://www.gold-
eagle.com/ (MUST READ FOR ANYONE WHO CAN COUNT FROM 1 to 5)editorials_ 03/hultberg02050 3.html
Finally, Prechter wrote in his book Conquer the Crash that if gold ever got above $400 that he would "...have to reconsider his view of deflation..."
Maybe Sriram, being an subscriber to EW can vouch for the above, assuming he has access to the book and maybe even ask a question or two about his defintion of deflation in their forums.
I will be posting in a limited fashion from this weekend due to personal reasons. Nothing to do with the colorful arguments and non-working polls.
Hope you enjoyed reading this write up as much as i had writing it. Comments are welcome. Sorry no charts here.
Cheers!
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/Technical-Investor/files/!Forum Rules of Conduct.txt
No comments:
Post a Comment