Bob,
I don't expect Prechter to reply to me personally. If you have 25,000 clients, you have PR/Marketing managers etc.
Regards
Ray
On Wed, Feb 3, 2010 at 8:58 AM, Sniper Trader <snipertrader@gmail.com > wrote:
In case people did not read the disclaimer - I was talking only about his his gold prediction. And yes, he has been wrong for 10 yrs. Time and Time again.Infact, he is the best contrarian indicator in my books. He came out with a short call on gold on 25th Jan and we all know what happened after that.Pls read the disclaimer, i put it out on the top on purpose. I knew the EW clan will come all guns blazing.
On Wed, Feb 3, 2010 at 8:37 AM, B SRIRAM <bees2365@yahoo.co.in > wrote:
Bob,
You didn't mention USD Bullish theory!! Against the whole world talking of American Bankruptcy and hence the crash of the Greenback he was advocating Long Dollar. Also specific stocks he was predicting GM-Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to become junks!
More to come Sniper!
Prashanth, what I meant in that letter of mine was to tell that if someone is so glaringly wrong, he may not sustain his position. The fact that Prechter did was testimony to his perception of certain things. May be when he wrote in 1997-8 his classic At the Crest of Tidal Wave, he was wrong on his timing of when the crash(tidal wave) will materialise. If someone in power had beend drawn attention to his book, they will certainly do all things to avoid things from happening during their regime. Alan Greenspan was no fool and he would have read the stuff tho' he won't admit to it. When in Jan 2000 GMP Prechter called for a collapse and likened the Nasdaq rise to South Sea Bubble or the Numismatic Mania or Holland Tulip scam, he was not very much off the mark.
Will write more, but this may become an Indirect forum for promoting Prechter, tho' I have no such requirement or intentions. To criticise a person one can always say he was wrong here and wrong there. But to say that he knows nothing of economics, sociology or maths, as if we have engaged them in a debate and found their knowledge shallow, well I find it to be a bit unacceptable.
Sriram
B.Sriram
4B, Skylark Apts,
6,Rutlandgate Fifth St.,
Chennai-600006
Ph:+91 44 28334849(Dir)/28332373( Board)
Mobile:+91 98400 63145
Email:bhsppt@gmail.com
--- On Wed, 3/2/10, Bob Waits <bobwaits2@yahoo.com > wrote:
From: Bob Waits <bobwaits2@yahoo.com >
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor] Debunking Prechter
To: Technical-Investor@yahoogroups. com
Date: Wednesday, 3 February, 2010, 6:48 AM
Dude, this guy has been more or less correct. He called the peak in October 2007 and then asked investors to cover his shorts in Feb 2009 and said to expect a massive rally. Not sure on how you think he has been wrong for 10 years.
From: Sniper Trader <snipertrader@ gmail.com>
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Tue, February 2, 2010 10:21:00 AM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] Debunking Prechter
Haha...
Now, in my world, if i am consistently wrong on a thing for 10 yrs straight, i might have fair chance of losing my job. However, he seems to have garnered more supporters!
On Tue, Feb 2, 2010 at 8:47 PM, B SRIRAM <bees2365@yahoo. co.in> wrote:
Sniper,
Thats real sniping!
Read it thru' with interest.Will take some time to dwell into my archives and place counter points, which I will in due course. When subjectivity is involved any particular target may have to be revised. So long as the basics remain in tact nothing else matters. I always act on my own thinking and keep Prechter and Neely and the likes as just reference books.
But your writing throws some thing of an opposite view and don't really think you are the first one against Prechter. If inspite of all the brick bats in the last 10 years he has survived and
B.Sriram
4B, Skylark Apts,
6,Rutlandgate Fifth St.,
Chennai-600006
Ph:+91 44 28334849(Dir) /28332373( Board)
Mobile:+91 98400 63145
Email:bhsppt@gmail. com
--- On Tue, 2/2/10, Sniper Trader <snipertrader@ gmail.com> wrote:
From: Sniper Trader <snipertrader@ gmail.com>
Subject: [Technical-Investor ] Debunking Prechter
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Date: Tuesday, 2 February, 2010, 5:31 PM
Disclaimer : I do not know anything about Elliot Waves. This post is not to bash EW as a study, but the person who carries out the analysis.
In other words - Its about the Singer not the Song.Further, This is about Prechter and his take on Gold. I do not track his views on Nifty or other indices. This post is an amalgamation of various sites i visit.SHORT GOLD WHEN I TELL YOU SO! WAIT....I HAVE BEEN TELLING IT FOR 10 YEARS NOW.
According to Reuters, Prechter is out with a new call on gold. Specifically, he expects it to fall 40%, saying the metal "is over-owned and overvalued and is about to resume a bear market, if [it] hasn't already."He has been forecasting declining prices for Gold all throughout its decade long bull run. Yes, you read it right, he was wrong for 10 yrs!! If you toss a coin and trade, there are more chances of making money on Gold than if you had followed Prechter.For example, in March of 2006 when Gold was about $560 he said, "Gold is in the final stages of a speculative surge…technical factors, in conjunction with a complete wave pattern and sentiment, point directly to a decline to at least $460 and probably close to $400". It reached $730 in May and closed that year at around $650.What would have happened if you took his advice and shorted Gold at $360? His long term stock market forecasting isn't that great either (yeah, I know he's made 4-5 correct predictions in the last 40 years), but we'll leave that aside for now.There is an obvious divergence between Prechter and the other wave counter, the masterful and prescient Alf Field who has been spot on for the better part of the last two decades in his predictive and artful interpretation of the Elliot Wave, much more so than anyone else including the Kondriateff Waver, Martin Armstrong. Either one of these two gentlemen prove that sound economic fundamentals grounded in historical understanding inevitably trump the short sighted technical analysis of the small minds circumscribed by mere abstractions.Perhaps, rhe best article that refutes Prechterian theory at its core is here:http://www.gold- eagle.com/ editorials_ 03/hultberg02050 3.html (MUST READ FOR ANYONE WHO CAN COUNT FROM 1 to 5)Finally, Prechter wrote in his book Conquer the Crash that if gold ever got above $400 that he would "...have to reconsider his view of deflation... "Maybe Sriram, being an subscriber to EW can vouch for the above, assuming he has access to the book and maybe even ask a question or two about his defintion of deflation in their forums.I will be posting in a limited fashion from this weekend due to personal reasons. Nothing to do with the colorful arguments and non-working polls.Hope you enjoyed reading this write up as much as i had writing it. Comments are welcome. Sorry no charts here.Cheers!
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