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Tuesday, February 02, 2010

Re: [Technical-Investor] Debunking Prechter

 

Prashanth -


I never took it that way :)


On Tue, Feb 2, 2010 at 10:59 PM, Prashanth <prash454.ta@gmail.com> wrote:



Sniper,
 
This was not targetted against you or any of other group members. Being a full time trader is no child's play and personally have learnt some harsh truths.
 
Instead, my comment was made as a counter point to Sriram's contention of Pletcher being in this business (sucessfully) for over 10 years. A lot of analysts who come on TV are independent and are in business for many years now and yet I am unable to find third party vetted performance figures of any of them.
 
Cheers
 
Prashanth
 
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, February 02, 2010 22:16 PM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor] Debunking Prechter

 

On Cramer


Goto youtube and search for Don harrold + cramer.

Here is one for everyone to watch



As for me, i am not a full time trader yet but i do read a lot and see a lot of charts for patterns. I trade patterns and a few steps. That is more than enough for me.
Having said that,  i dont stop there. I like to diversify from stocks to commodities to solars to all things green. I am always at the look out of the next big thing.
Keeps me on my toes and helps me be proactive. Learning is a continuous process , espc when it comes to markets.

Cheers


On Tue, Feb 2, 2010 at 10:09 PM, Prashanth <prash454.ta@gmail.com> wrote:



First a couple of caveats.
 
1. I am no follower of Elliot. Importantly I do not believe in the constantly changing wave counts done by Analysts.
 
2. I haven't read Pretcher's books. Tried reading Neely's but could not go beyond the initial pages. Just too complicated for my brain to understand.
 
Having said that, a person can be successful without having to be right most (or any of the time). We have for example noted TV commentator and former hedge fund manager Jim Cramer. Just like our own analysts on CNBC are blasted in most forums, so seems to be the case of Cramer too.
 
For a hedge fund manager, I find it astounding that this guy should now run a stock tipping service. Unfortunately, I could not get Independent statistics on his performance. A paper written in 2008 which analyses his picks from 2005 - 2007 (pre crash) concludes that one would be been better off investing in a Index ETF rather than his picks. Since many of his picks it seems are small caps / mid caps, they would have borne the brunt of the fall that happened in 2008 and his performance figures would have faltered more.
 
Another person who comes to my mind and who has made more money than even hedge fund managers without actually risking any money on his own is Nassim Nicholas Taleb. His again is a concept which has only theoretical value but not practicality. The guy learned that fast and closed his hedge fund which was anyway not making any money and instead dived headlong into lecturing a concept that cannot be easily adapted into any investment. Its one thing to say that one should be aware of black swans and take preventive measures and quite another to be actually be able to do so.
 
Personally I would like to know what guys like you, AP among other whom I know are full time traders think and do rather than waste time in trying to learn from guys who are part time professionals in the market. Being part time, they always have a job (read as salary) to back them up in case they mess up in the markets. For guys like me, if I mess up in the market, I have limited options for surviving forget thriving.
  
 
Cheers
 
Prashanth
   
 
----- Original Message -----
From: B SRIRAM
Sent: Tuesday, February 02, 2010 20:52 PM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor] Debunking Prechter

 

Thats why he is not employed but runs his own company!

Sriram

B.Sriram
4B, Skylark Apts,
6,Rutlandgate Fifth St.,
Chennai-600006
Ph:+91 44 28334849(Dir)/28332373(Board)
Mobile:+91 98400 63145
Email:bhsppt@gmail.com

--- On Tue, 2/2/10, Sniper Trader <snipertrader@gmail.com> wrote:

From: Sniper Trader <snipertrader@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor] Debunking Prechter
To: Technical-Investor@yahoogroups.com
Date: Tuesday, 2 February, 2010, 8:51 PM

 

Haha...


Now, in my world, if i am consistently wrong on a thing for 10 yrs straight, i might have fair chance of losing my job. However, he seems to have garnered more supporters!


On Tue, Feb 2, 2010 at 8:47 PM, B SRIRAM <bees2365@yahoo. co.in> wrote:


Sniper,

Thats real sniping!

Read it thru' with interest.Will take some time to dwell into my archives and place counter points, which I will in due course. When subjectivity is involved any particular target may have to be revised. So long as the basics remain in tact nothing else matters. I always act on my own thinking and keep Prechter and Neely and the likes as just reference books.

But your writing throws some thing of an opposite view and don't really think you are the first one against Prechter. If inspite of all the brick bats in the last 10 years he has survived and

B.Sriram
4B, Skylark Apts,
6,Rutlandgate Fifth St.,
Chennai-600006
Ph:+91 44 28334849(Dir) /28332373( Board)
Mobile:+91 98400 63145
Email:bhsppt@gmail. com

--- On Tue, 2/2/10, Sniper Trader <snipertrader@ gmail.com> wrote:

From: Sniper Trader <snipertrader@ gmail.com>
Subject: [Technical-Investor ] Debunking Prechter
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Date: Tuesday, 2 February, 2010, 5:31 PM

 

Disclaimer : I do not know anything about Elliot Waves. This post is not to bash EW as a study, but the person who carries out the analysis.

In other words - Its about the Singer not the Song.
Further, This is about Prechter and his take on Gold. I do not track his views on Nifty or other indices. This post is an amalgamation of various sites i visit. 

SHORT GOLD WHEN I TELL YOU SO! WAIT....I HAVE BEEN TELLING IT FOR 10 YEARS NOW.


According to Reuters, Prechter is out with a new call on gold. Specifically, he expects it to fall 40%, saying the metal "is over-owned and overvalued and is about to resume a bear market, if [it] hasn't already."

 He has been forecasting declining prices for Gold all throughout its decade long bull run. Yes, you read it right, he was wrong for 10 yrs!! If you toss a coin and trade, there are more chances of making money on Gold than if you had followed Prechter.

For example, in March of 2006 when Gold was about $560 he said, "Gold is in the final stages of a speculative surge…technical factors, in conjunction with a complete wave pattern and sentiment, point directly to a decline to at least $460 and probably close to $400". It reached $730 in May and closed that year at around $650.

What would have happened if you took his advice and shorted Gold at $360? His long term stock market forecasting isn't that great either (yeah, I know he's made 4-5 correct predictions in the last 40 years), but we'll leave that aside for now.

There is an obvious divergence between Prechter and the other wave counter, the masterful and prescient Alf Field who has been spot on for the better part of the last two decades in his predictive and artful interpretation of the Elliot Wave, much more so than anyone else including the Kondriateff Waver, Martin Armstrong. Either one of these two gentlemen prove that sound economic fundamentals grounded in historical understanding inevitably trump the short sighted technical analysis of the small minds circumscribed by mere abstractions.


Perhaps, rhe best article   that refutes Prechterian theory at its core is here: 

http://www.gold- eagle.com/ editorials_ 03/hultberg02050 3.html (MUST READ FOR ANYONE WHO CAN COUNT FROM 1 to 5)

Finally, Prechter wrote in his book Conquer the Crash that if gold ever got above $400 that he would "...have to reconsider his view of deflation..." 

Maybe Sriram, being an subscriber  to EW can vouch for the above, assuming he has access to the book and maybe even ask a question or two about his defintion of deflation in their forums.

I will be posting in a limited fashion from this weekend due to personal reasons. Nothing to do with the colorful arguments and non-working polls.

Hope you enjoyed reading this write up as much as i had writing it. Comments are welcome. Sorry no charts here.

Cheers!




The INTERNET now has a personality. YOURS! See your Yahoo! Homepage.



The INTERNET now has a personality. YOURS! See your Yahoo! Homepage.







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