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Sunday, November 15, 2009

[Technical-Investor] Inflation at 1.34% in October 2009

 

The government has decided to release the monthly data for WPI inflation and first hand data for the October 2009 has been released. The official Wholesale Price Index for All Commodities for the month October 2009 declined by 0.2% to 242.2 from 242.7 for the previous month.

The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, stood at 1.34 % for the month of October 2009 compared with October 2008. Build up inflation in the financial year so far was 6.13% compared to a build up of 5.99% in the corresponding period of the previous year.

The index of primary articles group declined by 0.9 % to 273.4 from 275.8 for the previous month.

The index for 'Food Articles' group declined by 1.0 % to 278.2 from 281.0 for the previous month due to lower prices of fruits & vegetables (11%), bajra (3%), maize and poultry chicken (2%each) and jowar (1%). However, the prices of fish-inland (9%), moong (7%), rice, fish-marine, mutton and tea (3%each), wheat (2%) and urad milk and condiments & spices (1% each) moved up.

The index for 'Non-Food Articles' group declined by 1.3 % to 236.4 (Provisional) from 239.5 (Provisional)for the previous month due to lower prices of gingelly seed (5%), cotton seed and fodder (4% each), groundnut seed(3%), raw cotton, raw wool, rape & mustard seed, copra and sunflower (2% each) and raw silk and castor seed (1%each). However, raw jute (4%), linseed (3%) and raw rubber (1%) moved up. The index for 'Minerals' group rose by 3.0% to 587.0 (Provisional) from 570.0 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of gypsum (7%) and iron ore (4%). However, the prices of chromite (43%), barites (6%), fire clay (5%), steatite (4%) and vermiculite (1%).

The index of fuel and power rose by 0.1 % to 345.0 from 344.6 for the previous month due to higher prices of furnace oil (3%), bitumin (1%). However, the prices of aviation turbine fuel (8%) declined.

The index of manufactured index declined marginally to 208.5 from 208.6 for the previous month. The index for 'Food Products' group declined by 0.2 % to 240.1 from 240.7 for the previous month due to lower prices of coconut oil (7%), rape & mustard oil and important edible oil (6% each), oilcakes (4%), cotton seed oil (3%) and groundnut oil, sunflower oil and malted food (1% each). However, the prices of skimmed milk powder and gur (6% each), butter, sooji (rawa), bran (all kinds), sugar and salt (2% each) and ghee, maida, atta, khandsari, gingely oil and coffee powder (1% each) moved up.

The index for 'Beverages, Tobacco and Tobacco Products' group rose by 1.3 % to 309.7 from305.7 for the previous month due to higher prices of potable country liquor and cigarettes (3% each).The index for 'Textiles' group rose by 0.4 % to 144.7 (Provisional) from 144.1 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of hessian cloth (5%), hessian and sacking bags (3%), polyster staple fibre (2%) and cotton yarn-hanks (1%). However, the prices of texturised yarn (3%) and woolen cloth (2%) declined. The index for 'Rubber & Plastic Products' group declined by 0.3 % to 168.9 from 169.4(Provisional) for the previous month due to lower prices of pvc fitting & accessories and convas footwear (4%each) and rubber chappal (1%).

The index for 'Chemicals & Chemical Products' group rose by 0.1 % to 229.7 from 229.4 for the previous month due to higher prices of liquid clorine, methanol, and calcium ammonium nitrate (5% each), vitamin liquids, and synthetic rubber (3% each), acid all kinds and polystyrene (2% each) and caustic soda, resin (all kinds) and carbon black (1% each). However, the prices of p.v.c. resins (10%), purified terepthalic acid (7%) and benzene (6%) declined. The index for 'Non-Metallic Mineral Products' group declined by 0.2 % to 224.7 from225.1for the previous month due to lower prices of cement, and asbestos cement corrugated sheets(1%each). However, the prices of bottles (8%) moved up.

The index for 'Basic Metals Alloys & Metal Products' group declined by 0.9 % to 256.9 (Provisional) from259.2 (Provisional) for the previous month due to lower prices of ms/ss ingots (39%), forging (27%), utensils(10%), steel ingots(3%), lead ingots(2%) and joist & rolls and other iron steel(1%each). However, the prices of brass sheets & strips(5%), skelps (3%), bars & rods, steel wire ropes, cr coil, cr sheet, zinc and zinc ingot (2%each) and basic pig iron, foundary pig iron, blooms, billets & slabs, angles, channels, & section, ms bars & rounds, pipes& tubes and wire all kinds (1% each) moved up.

The index for 'Machinery & Machine Tools' group rose by 0.5 % to 173.9 from173.1 for the previous month due to higher prices of batteries (8%), other cables (3%), rubber insulated cables (2%) and other textile machinery, carding machine, mono block pumps and air & gas compressors (1%each). However, the prices of components & accessories (4%) and ring spinning & doubling and electric motors (1%each) declined.

On month basis, inflation rate declined in October 2009 compared with September 2009 however the prices of essential commodities recorded a rise and is likely to go up. Lower rainfall and overall lack of supply will boost the prices. Thus the gap between demand and supply in agri commodities is likely to widen further, putting upward pressure on prices.

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