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From: BALAJI Jayaraman <bctbalaji@gmail. com>
Subject: [Technical-Investor ] India's economy may grow at fastest pace in a year
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Date: Sunday, November 29, 2009, 11:43 PM
India's economy may grow at fastest pace in a year Bloomberg, 30/11/2009
India's economy, the third biggest in Asia, probably grew at the fastest pace in a year because of record-low interest rates and tax cuts. Gross domestic product may rise 6.3 percent in the three months ending Sept. 30 from a year earlier, according to the median forecast of 19 economists in a Bloomberg survey. That would compare with 6.1 percent in the previous quarter. The statistics office will announce the number at 11 a.m. local time in New Delhi today. Economists are weighing the threat from inflation against the risk of raising interest rates, if made quickly than it will undermine the recovery of the $1.2 trillion economy. The withdrawal of monetary stimulus should be carefully and strategically planned to sustain growth, according to central bank Deputy Governor Subir Gokran. India's growth is being heavily driven by government stimulus. To steer the nation through the worst global financial crisis since the 1930s, the central bank has kept the key reverse repurchase rate at 3.25 percent since April and government spending and tax cuts have taken the value of stimulus measures to 12 percent of GDP. Inflation pressures are building as growth quickens and after the weakest monsoon rains since 1972 hurt farm output, pushing up food costs. The central bank forecasts inflation of 6.5 percent by March 31 from 1.34 percent in October and 0.5 percent in September. During 2008, the rate rose to as high as almost 13 percent. Given the magnitude of easing and the speed at which inflation has bounced back, monetary policy will need to be tightened fairly soon. |
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