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Wednesday, June 02, 2010

**[investwise]** BOAML: FMCG To Shine, Jyothy Labs Outperformer [2 Attachments]

 
[Attachment(s) from Maverick included below]

BOAML
FMCG Sales Growth Surges 14 Percent To A Eight Month High

Total sales growth came in at 14% - highest in last eight months. Volume growth
acceleration across most categories is the trigger for this sharp pick-up in growth.
This is against the run of play, given food inflation is still high and it is too
early for the normal monsoon outlook to make an impact. 

We maintain our view of a strong recovery in growth in 2HCY10, led by price hikes,
higher volume growth as food inflation subsides, and a normal monsoon
supporting rural growth.

HUL - Sales growth turns positive as volume growth picks up

HUL saw sales growth of ~4% after four months of decline. Pick up in volume
growth was the key driver. Barring Tea & Coffee, all other categories had positive
growth. Detergents continue to do well with 24% volume growth. This reflected in
value growth as well, with an across-the-board improvement, as only Coffee is still
witnessing decline. We await sustainability of this trend before revisiting our view.

HUL – Market share trend still a mixed bag

Though sales growth picked up for HUL, it failed to beat market growth, as market
shares did not show much improvement. Declines were seen in Soaps, Laundry
and Toothpaste, with slight gains in Skin Care. However, gains in Shampoos,
Tea, Coffee and Ketchups were healthy. On a long-term basis though, market
shares are still lower across most categories vs. their last year levels. Unless HUL
consistently outperforms market growth, a sustained market share gain is difficult.

Nestle – sales growth steady with market share gains

Sales growth revived to 14% in April. Market shares went up for Noodles,
Ketchups and Chocolates, with Coffee continuing its steep decline. However, the
trend over the last year has been the reverse, with only coffee recording gains.

Colgate – Sales growth up strongly with market share gains

Mar. sales grew 13%, one of the highest over last 18 months. Market shares went
up across all three key categories of Toothpaste, Toothbrush and Toothpowder.
Colgate has done well, with 140bp margin gains in Toothpaste and Toothpowder
over the last one year, driven by expansion of rural reach and low-price SKUs.

Dabur – Sales growth remains weak; Market shares mixed

Despite recovery, sales growth remained weak at 8%. Market shares were largely
neg, with losses in Shampoos, Toothpowder and Chyawanprash, and gain in
Toothpaste. Overall trend over the last one year has been positive, with share
g ains in Toothpaste, Toothpowder and Chyawanprash, and losses in Shampoos.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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Attachment(s) from Maverick

2 of 2 File(s)

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