Sensex

Sunday, February 07, 2010

Re: [Technical-Investor] Where are you going Miss Nifty??

 

Views biased ...you can guess why. :)
@ what rate did you go short? What is your SL?
 
AP
 
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, February 07, 2010 3:05 PM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor] Where are you going Miss Nifty??

 

Totally Agreed.
I had the similar question in my mind on friday morning.
Posted it on this forum and Prashant replied with an para from Reminiscence of a stock operator.

Anyways i will see on monday.

I guess the short covering rally in US was based on a HOPE that some announcement will come from Europe over the weekend. It has not come yet.
Few more problems according to me
1. DII especially insurance companies were the ones who HELPED the govt to fully subscribe the NPTC FPO. ( a total of 8000 crs, 1.8 billion dollar in total).
2. Dollar Index still moving up.
3. Crude falling down , this will have impact on ONGC and RIL (which constitute 20% of index)
4. US futures fell 43 points in the after hour trading in US.
5. The rally which we witnessed in our market on saturday happened only in last few mins of the trade. Also FIIs were net sellers.
6. What will happen when MF/Insurance money dries out??

There is one more point i want to make. This comes from small observations and readings.
Retails looks to be absent from trading. When we had huge retail participation we used to have sharp correction and then again a rally.
Coz retail is not present(in relative terms), i think the downfall will be slow (unless some bad news flows from Eurozone)

PS: Views biased ...you can guess why. :)
I am not ruling out the possibility of 4880. but this according to me will decide our short term direction.

Regards,
Abhi


On Sun, Feb 7, 2010 at 2:28 PM, Abhijit <ap19632000@yahoo.com> wrote:
 

Abhijit,
 
I never meant that the one way upwards journey is set to restart.
 
My caution for those holding shorts - to follow certain levels, since if someone has gone short at say 4850- there is no point in holding the short if Nifty goes back all the way above 4830, thus causing a loss in profit if 170 points! The levels given can be followed to decide when to exit shorts and whether / when to go long.
 
I believe this might be a fast rally, since we have the budget ahead of us, and ' the operators' and the government too would like the 'retail' to believe that this was just a small pulback and now AALL IZZ WELL....we have seen this happen so many times.
 
I too do have targets of 4250 and 3820 on the Nifty for 2010, but definitely not in February as some have been led to believe.
 
AP
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, February 07, 2010 12:53 AM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor] Where are you going Miss Nifty??

 

If the market had to go up, it could have done that today, with lot less pressure from FIIs, but then it moved down. I understand it could have done that for testing the support.
By the way FII were net seller today also. (not much given only 1.5 hrs of trading).
The DOW futures actually moved down after the market closed in US. The DOW futures is showing a reading of -43.

Check out this link
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35258021 - Portugal passes a bill to INCREASE deficit.
Because of this there will be some impact on Euro weakening.

I am not sure if we will cross 4880 on the upside.


On Sat, Feb 6, 2010 at 4:57 PM, Abhijit <ap19632000@yahoo.com> wrote:
 

I strongly believe, we have seen a bottom at the low of Friday - how long it will hold is something no one can say.
 
Why do I believe this -
 
-    Hourly stochastics are near 5.
-    Positive divergence on RSI
-    Positive divergence on MACD.
-    the 200 dma was almost touched (not necessary to actually touch it)
-    S & P bounced hard from the 200 DMA last night.
 
So guys, wake up early at 5.30 am on Monday and start tracking Nikkei, then Hang Seng which will tell you whether we open flat, gap down, or GAP UP ABOVE 4790, and then start tracking Nifty on SGX till 9 am.
 
But assuming a short  term bottom is in place the first hurdle is the trend line which is near 4830ish.
 
-  Very likely
 
A close above this TL can take Nifty to the first retracement level (38.2%) near 4930.
 
- Likely
 
A close above 4930 will take Nifty to the 200 HMA near 5107 - of course, by then this 200 HMA would have come down a bit, and will not remain at 5107.
 
hmm....Not impossible.
 
A close above 5107 will take Nifty to the final hurdle 5180 (61.8%), and beyond this the parallel channel top can also be a target - 5400 - 5450!!
 
- Difficult to believe!!
 
It is all happening on a screen in front of you next week - stay tuned...:)
 
All the above can be options for a POLL?  ....hehehe
 
AP
 
 


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Posted by nsivaa at 1:41 AM

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