I think the article underlined the point that I was trying to make, inter alia. Hulbert has been doing a fine job for a long time. I have been following their work for the past couple of decades. No arguments with the statistics. But the way the results are measured can lead to very different kind of results.
Overtly, it seems like Prechter completely lost it when he called for those cataclysmic declines a decade ago. But has anyone bothered to read his explanations? Is anyone aware of the wave degree completion that he is talking about? Has any critic discussed the implications of a super cycle degree wave completion? Has anyone bothered to check on the time counts associated with such higher degree wave counts? Has anyone looked at the changes that have occurred in the markets when the impact of those wave structures are taking hold and made those correlations? I wager that the answer would be "nearly none" to all the questions raised above.
Most active players of the market – and I would bet that of most of the people active in this forum- would, at best, be intermediate term players (though I find a great deal of focus on day trades). They why in the world are we harping about being right or wrong across a 10 year time frame (whether that is right or wrong)? If our average trade does not last longer than 10 days all that matters is whether my advisor got the plot right to make my trades right in the time frame that I play them. Hulbert's digest says pretty unequivocally that he got it right time and again.
From: Technical-Investor@
Sent: Wednesday, February 03, 2010 11:31 AM
To: Technical-Investor@
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor
Good article.
Again, i have nothing against Mr P and his stock market calls. He has been DEAD WRONG on gold for last 10 yrs and that is the point i was trying to make. Can someone prove me otherwise? If not, i rest my case.
On Wed, Feb 3, 2010 at 11:24 AM, KKP_Investor <kkpatel1924@
http://www.marketwa
Mark Hulbert is the master at proving accuracy of people's advice.....I have followed Hulbert for the last 15+ years and believe in him. He debunks all 'claims' by newsletter writers by actually acting on the advice in real time.
Above link shows what he feels about Prechter in the short term (recent 2 years). I will try to get the latest Hulbert data which will cover 10-20 years, and it will prove the accuracy as well as how good his signals have been.
KKP
On 2/2/2010 9:17 AM, B SRIRAM wrote:
Sniper,
Thats real sniping!
Read it thru' with interest.Will take some time to dwell into my archives and place counter points, which I will in due course. When subjectivity is involved any particular target may have to be revised. So long as the basics remain in tact nothing else matters. I always act on my own thinking and keep Prechter and Neely and the likes as just reference books.
But your writing throws some thing of an opposite view and don't really think you are the first one against Prechter. If inspite of all the brick bats in the last 10 years he has survived and
B.Sriram
4B, Skylark Apts,
6,Rutlandgate Fifth St.,
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Ph:+91 44 28334849(Dir)/28332373( Board)
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--- On Tue, 2/2/10, Sniper Trader <snipertrader@gmail.com > wrote:
From: Sniper Trader <snipertrader@gmail.com >
Subject: [Technical-Investor] Debunking Prechter
To: Technical-Investor@yahoogroups. com
Date: Tuesday, 2 February, 2010, 5:31 PM
Disclaimer : I do not know anything about Elliot Waves. This post is not to bash EW as a study, but the person who carries out the analysis.
In other words - Its about the Singer not the Song.
Further, This is about Prechter and his take on Gold. I do not track his views on Nifty or other indices. This post is an amalgamation of various sites i visit.
Error! Filename not specified.SHORT GOLD WHEN I TELL YOU SO! WAIT....I HAVE BEEN TELLING IT FOR 10 YEARS NOW.
According to Reuters, Prechter is out with a new call on gold. Specifically, he expects it to fall 40%, saying the metal "is over-owned and overvalued and is about to resume a bear market, if [it] hasn't already."
He has been forecasting declining prices for Gold all throughout its decade long bull run. Yes, you read it right, he was wrong for 10 yrs!! If you toss a coin and trade, there are more chances of making money on Gold than if you had followed Prechter.
For example, in March of 2006 when Gold was about $560 he said, "Gold is in the final stages of a speculative surge…technical factors, in conjunction with a complete wave pattern and sentiment, point directly to a decline to at least $460 and probably close to $400". It reached $730 in May and closed that year at around $650.
What would have happened if you took his advice and shorted Gold at $360? His long term stock market forecasting isn’t that great either (yeah, I know he’s made 4-5 correct predictions in the last 40 years), but we’ll leave that aside for now.
There is an obvious divergence between Prechter and the other wave counter, the masterful and prescient Alf Field who has been spot on for the better part of the last two decades in his predictive and artful interpretation of the Elliot Wave, much more so than anyone else including the Kondriateff Waver, Martin Armstrong. Either one of these two gentlemen prove that sound economic fundamentals grounded in historical understanding inevitably trump the short sighted technical analysis of the small minds circumscribed by mere abstractions.
Perhaps, rhe best article that refutes Prechterian theory at its core is here:
http://www.gold- eagle.com/ editorials_ 03/hultberg02050 3.html (MUST READ FOR ANYONE WHO CAN COUNT FROM 1 to 5)
Finally, Prechter wrote in his book Conquer the Crash that i f gold ever got above $400 that he would "...have to reconsider his view of deflation..."
Maybe Sriram, being an subscriber to EW can vouch for the above, assuming he has access to the book and maybe even ask a question or two about his defintion of deflation in their forums.
I will be posting in a limited fashion from this weekend due to personal reasons. Nothing to do with the colorful arguments and non-working polls.
Hope you enjoyed reading this write up as much as i had writing it. Comments are welcome. Sorry no charts here.
Cheers!
The INTERNET now has a personality. YOURS! See your Yahoo! Homepage.
--
Plan Your Work and Work Your Plan to Get Ahead in 2009-2012.....
KKP Investor
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Bull Markets are Born on Pessimism,
Bull Markets Grow on Skepticism,
They Mature on Optimism, and
Die on Euphoria - Sir John Templeton
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Bear Markets are Born on Recessionism,
Snowball on Momentum & Technical-Breakdowns,
Mature on Eco-Political-Nightmare Talks, and
Die on World-Is-Coming-To-An-End Euphoria - KKP
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>BUFFET: My rule is to be fearful when others are greedy,and be greedy when
others are fearful. All day you wait for the pitch you like, then when
the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. Stay dispassionate and
be patient. First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new
issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold
bars and predicting another Great Depression. Most people get interested
in stocks when everyone else is jumping in. The time to get interested
is when no one else is interested. You can't buy what is popular and
expect to do well.
ABOVE ALL: Whatever God Does, Accept that as Good; Leave Behind ALL Other Judgements/Justifications.
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Disclaimer> Do you homework for your ownself and then invest. My ideas are not advice.
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/Technical-Investor/files/!Forum Rules of Conduct.txt
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