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Friday, January 22, 2010

[sharetrading] Texmaco

 

 
Texmaco Ltd. (TEXMAC)
By Supriya Madye (Khedkar), Rajni Mahadevan

Ramping up the high-value business…

Texmaco is the largest wagon manufacturer in India with the comparative advantage of outstanding infrastructure in the industry. The company also has its own steel foundry through which it sources its raw materials. This gives Texmaco a cost advantage and helps in maintaining the profitability margin. Indian Railways (IR) plans to add 62,000 wagons in the Eleventh Five Year Plan. Texmaco is well positioned to reap the benefits of immense opportunities offered by IR. The company enjoys a 25% market share in the wagon manufacturing business and is currently diversifying into manufacturing of high margin EMU coaches, metro coaches and locomotives. This augurs well for Texmaco.  

  • Venturing into new business segments

Texmaco delivered its first locomotive shell to the Chittaranjan Locomotive in Q3FY10. It is a high value product addition for Texmaco and is expected to further contribute to the topline and bottomline, going forward. Land development and piling for the EMU plant has started and foundry modernisation is also on track.

  • Rise in rail freight traffic

Even during the slowdown, rail freight traffic has grown by 7.1% to 501.3 million tonnes (MT) in April-October 2009 compared to the corresponding period last year. Growing freight and passenger traffic along with the need to improve the efficiency will trigger higher demand for wagons, coaches and locomotives.

  • Strong order book position

With the unprecedented increase in freight and passenger traffic, Texmaco has a current order book of ~4300 wagons (58% is from the IR). The company is likely to fetch an order of 1,700 BCNA HS in H2FY10E. A tender for 10,000 wagons is to be released in the coming months. Orders from private rail operators like Gateway Distriparks, Adani Logistics and Sical are also picking up.  

 
  Quarter ended Year ended Rs. cr
year   2009/12 2008/12 var %   2009/03 2008/03 var %
Sales Income   238.77 166.49 43.41   892.45 803.67 11.05
Other Income   4.97 0.50 890.26   6.16 12.31 -49.92
Expenditure   205.50 139.51 47.30   765.01 697.34 9.70
Interest   2.01 2.75 -26.79   10.87 9.06 19.97
Gross Profit   36.22 24.73 46.47   122.73 109.58 12.00
Depreciation   2.95 2.61 13.10   11.35 8.86 28.14
Tax   10.97 6.57 66.82   35.08 30.99 13.22
PAT   22.23 15.43 44.08   75.84 69.09 9.76
Equity   12.72 11.08 14.80   11.08 11.08 0.00
OPM (%)   13.93 16.21 -2.28   14.28 13.23 1.05
GPM (%)   13.09 14.55 -1.46   13.06 12.10 0.96
NPM (%)   9.31 9.26 0.05   8.49 8.59 -0.10
 
Key Financial Ratios
  2009/03 2008/03 2007/03 2006/03 2005/03
EPS 6.87 66.80 27.58 18.41 16.97
CEPS 7.90 75.39 32.64 22.55 20.82
Book Value 26.64 218.87 143.74 120.85 105.85
Dividend/Share 0.75 7.50 4.00 3.00 2.00
OPM 13.29 12.97 11.46 9.22 8.28
RONW 26.59 30.41 19.95 15.85 14.76
Debt/Equity 0.26 0.33 0.35 0.49 0.45
Ratio 1.24 0.99 1.17 1.29 1.35
Interest Cover 9.08 12.96 17.94 15.32 5.65
 
Financials:

Valuation

Texmaco being the market leader, we believe it is better placed to explore the emerging opportunities. At the CMP of Rs 155, the stock is trading at 16.7x FY11E consensus earnings of Rs 9.3. We recommend the stock with a 10% upside from current levels.
 
technical analysis
 

Technical Outlook

Texmaco continues to be in a bull trend since its lows in March 2009. After consolidation during October-December 2009 the stock broke out with historical volumes indicating greater participation. Recently, the stock has corrected to the 50% retracement of the recent rally and offers buying opportunity. Further rising short-term moving averages and the 14 period RSI suggest positive momentum in the stock

 
 
 

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