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Friday, August 28, 2009

DG - Philosophical but True

 

1 . ATTITUDE IS WHAT  LIFE  IS  ALL  ABOUT.......
SOLDIER : SIR  WE   ARE SURROUNDED  FROM  ALL  SIDES  BY  ENEMIES ,  MAJOR : EXCELLENT !  WE CAN ATTACK IN ANY DIRECTION.
 

2. EVERY ONE  KNOWS  ABOUT  ALEXANDER  GRAHAM BELL  WHO  INVENTED THE TELEPHONE, BUT  HE  NEVER  MADE  A  CALL  TO  HIS  FAMILY.  BECAUSE, HIS WIFE  AND DAUGHTER  WERE  DEAF.  THAT'S  LIFE "  LIVE  FOR  OTHERS " .

3.  THE   WORST  IN  LIFE  IS  "ATTACHMENT " IT  HURTS  WHEN  YOU  LOSE  IT. THE   BEST  THING  IN  LIFE  IS " LONELINESS "  BECAUSE  IT  TEACHES  YOU EVERYTHING  AND,  WHEN  YOU  LOSE  IT,  YOU  GET EVERYTHING.

4.  LIFE  IS  NOT  ABOUT  THE  PEOPLE  WHO  ACT  TRUE TO  YOUR  FACE ........ IT'S  ABOUT  THE  PEOPLE  WHO  REMAIN  TRUE  BEHIND  YOUR  BACK
.

5.  IF  AN  EGG  IS  BROKEN  BY  AN  OUTSIDE  FORCE........A  LIFE ENDS.  IF  AN  EGG  BREAKS  FROM  WITHIN.......LIFE  BEGINS. GREAT   THINGS  ALWAYS  BEGIN  FROM   WITHIN .


6.  IT'S  BETTER  TO  LOSE  YOUR  EGO  TO  THE  ONE  YOU   LOVE. THAN  TO  LOSE  THE   ONE  YOU  LOVE ....... BECAUSE  OF   EGO .


7.   A  RELATIONSHIP  DOESN'T  SHINE  BY  JUST  SHAKING  HANDS  AT  THE  BEST OF TIMES. BUT  IT  BLOSSOMS  BY  HOLDING  FIRMLY    IN  CRITICAL  SITUATIONS  .


8. HEATED GOLD BECOMES ORNAMENTS. BETTED  COPPER  BECOMES  WIRES. DEPLETED  STONE  BECOMES  STATUE. SO,  THE  MORE PAIN  YOU  GET  IN  YOUR  LIFE  THE   MORE  VALUABLE YOU BECOME.
 
 

9.  WHEN  YOU  TRUST  SOMEONE  TRUST  HIM  COMPLETELY  WITHOUT  ANY  DOUBT..............  AT  THE  END  YOU  WOULD  GET  ONE  OF   THE  TWO :  EITHER  A  LESSON  FOR  YOUR  LIFE  OR  A   VERY  GOOD  PERSON
.  
 

10. WHY  WE  HAVE  SO  MANY  TEMPLES   , IF  GOD  IS  EVERYWHERE ? A   WISE  MAN  SAID  : AIR   IS  EVERYWHERE , BUT   WE   STILL  NEED  A  FAN   TO  FEEL  IT .

 

 

     

 

 

Without GOD , our week would be:
Sinday, Mournday, Tearsday, Wasteday,
Thirstday, Fightday & Shatterday.  


Remember seven days WITHOUT GOD makes  
one WEAK!!
 

 

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Thursday, August 27, 2009

DG - FW: Stock Ideas: United Phosphorus (A global agrochemical play) [1 Attachment]

 
[Attachment(s) from RoHiT included below]

 

 

From: Sharekhan Fundamental Research [mailto:marketwatch@research.sharekhan.com]
Sent: 27 August 2009 15:31
To: Sharekhan Fundamental Research
Subject: Stock Ideas: United Phosphorus (A global agrochemical play)

 

 

Stock Ideas
[August 27, 2009] Please see the attachment for details

Sharekhan
www.sharekhan.com

Summary of Contents

STOCK IDEAS

United Phosphorus 
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs225
Current market price: Rs163

A global agrochemical play

Key points

  • Wide product portfolio, diversified target markets: United Phosphorous Ltd (UPL)’s diversified product portfolio, strong distribution network and presence across geographies make it a good investment play in the agrochemical space. UPL derives its revenues from various geographies across the world, with India contributing around one-fifth of the revenues. Such well-diversified client markets act as a natural hedge for the company during times of slowdown or drought in any particular region. 
  • Huge opportunities for crop protection products: Globally, the agrochemical industry is divided into products protected by patents and generic products. With a significant number of agrochemicals going off patent in the next couple of years, opportunities for global generic players like UPL are likely to be immense. UPL has a strong pipeline of products in the generic crop protection space. Domestically too, in view of the increasing focus on improving productivity and the lower penetration of agrochemicals in the country, the demand for crop protection products is likely to remain buoyant going forward.
  • Margin expansion to boost earnings: UPL has achieved a stupendous 37% revenue growth (CAGR) over FY2005-09, though we expect its revenue growth to moderate in future (13% CAGR during FY2009-11E) due to lower average realisations globally. However, we expect the OPM to improve by 80 basis points on the back of a lower raw material cost and improved profitability of the recently acquired entity, Cerexagri. Moreover, UPL plans to take advantage of its low-cost base in India and shift home some of the global manufacturing processes from its high-cost manufacturing destinations like Australia and Argentina. As a result, the net profit is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 28% during FY2009-11.
  • Stock at discount to its average multiple: Despite its strong positioning in the crop protection market and the healthy growth in its earnings, UPL trades at a huge discount to its one-year forward average EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.4x, leaving scope for substantial upside. Moreover, we have not factored in any possible upside from its seed business that is currently margin dilutive but is expected to witness improvement in profitability. At the current market price of Rs163, the stock is discounting its FY2010E and FY2011E EPS at 10.7x and 8.8x respectively. We initiate coverage on UPL with a Buy recommendation. We arrive at a price target of Rs225 after valuing the company at 8.5x its FY2011E EV/EBITDA, which is at ~10% discount to its historical average.

Regards,
The Sharekhan Research Team

myaccount@sharekhan.com

 

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Attachment(s) from RoHiT

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Monday, August 24, 2009

DG - Dow & Footsie Rally Lightens Mood

 

Dow & Footsie Rally Lightens Mood

Commodities

The CRB Commodities Index, shaken by the prospect of falling demand from China, is undergoing a secondary correction. Respect of the declining trendline would indicate a further down-swing, signaling weakness for resources stocks — confirmed if short-term support at 253 is broken. Breakout above the trendline, however, would suggest that the correction is over; short duration indicating a strong primary up-trend.

CRB Commodities Index

USA

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow completed a bear trap after a marginal break through support (9200) reversed above resistance at 9400. Short duration of the correction indicates a strong up-trend. Expect a test of the upper trend channel, with a target of 10000*. Reversal below 9400 is unlikely, but would indicate a bullish broadening (or megaphone) wedge formation. The primary advance is confirmed by the S&P500 and Dow Transport Index.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 9000 + ( 9000 - 8000 ) = 10000

 




 

We are not to expect to be translated from despotism to liberty in a featherbed.

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DG - The Most Humorous Answer Paper Ever!

 
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DG - The Most Humorous Answer Paper Ever!

 
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Sunday, August 23, 2009

DG - Happy Ganesh Chaturthi

 

http://groups-beta.google.com/group/me-maya

 

SHREE SIDDHIVINAYAK 

Wish u a very
AUSPICIOUS
GANESH CHATURTHI
May Lord Ganesh Bring Prosperity  &
Glory in Your Life.

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Saturday, August 22, 2009

DG - The Greenback Effect : Warren Buffett

 

IN nature, every action has consequences, a phenomenon called the
butterfly effect. These consequences, moreover, are not necessarily
proportional. For example, doubling the carbon dioxide we belch into
the atmosphere may far more than double the subsequent problems for
society. Realizing this, the world properly worries about greenhouse
emissions.

The butterfly effect reaches into the financial world as well. Here,
the United States is spewing a potentially damaging substance into our
economy — greenback emissions.

To be sure, we’ve been doing this for a reason I resoundingly applaud.
Last fall, our financial system stood on the brink of a collapse that
threatened a depression. The crisis required our government to display
wisdom, courage and decisiveness. Fortunately, the Federal Reserve and
key economic officials in both the Bush and Obama administrations
responded more than ably to the need.

They made mistakes, of course. How could it have been otherwise when
supposedly indestructible pillars of our economic structure were
tumbling all around them? A meltdown, though, was avoided, with a
gusher of federal money playing an essential role in the rescue.

The United States economy is now out of the emergency room and appears
to be on a slow path to recovery. But enormous dosages of monetary
medicine continue to be administered and, before long, we will need to
deal with their side effects. For now, most of those effects are
invisible and could indeed remain latent for a long time. Still, their
threat may be as ominous as that posed by the financial crisis itself.

To understand this threat, we need to look at where we stand
historically. If we leave aside the war-impacted years of 1942 to
1946, the largest annual deficit the United States has incurred since
1920 was 6 percent of gross domestic product. This fiscal year,
though, the deficit will rise to about 13 percent of G.D.P., more than
twice the non-wartime record. In dollars, that equates to a staggering
$1.8 trillion. Fiscally, we are in uncharted territory.

Because of this gigantic deficit, our country’s “net debt” (that is,
the amount held publicly) is mushrooming. During this fiscal year, it
will increase more than one percentage point per month, climbing to
about 56 percent of G.D.P. from 41 percent. Admittedly, other
countries, like Japan and Italy, have far higher ratios and no one can
know the precise level of net debt to G.D.P. at which the United
States will lose its reputation for financial integrity. But a few
more years like this one and we will find out.

An increase in federal debt can be financed in three ways: borrowing
from foreigners, borrowing from our own citizens or, through a
roundabout process, printing money. Let’s look at the prospects for
each individually — and in combination.

The current account deficit — dollars that we force-feed to the rest
of the world and that must then be invested — will be $400 billion or
so this year. Assume, in a relatively benign scenario, that all of
this is directed by the recipients — China leads the list — to
purchases of United States debt. Never mind that this all-Treasuries
allocation is no sure thing: some countries may decide that purchasing
American stocks, real estate or entire companies makes more sense than
soaking up dollar-denominated bonds. Rumblings to that effect have
recently increased.

Then take the second element of the scenario — borrowing from our own
citizens. Assume that Americans save $500 billion, far above what
they’ve saved recently but perhaps consistent with the changing
national mood. Finally, assume that these citizens opt to put all
their savings into United States Treasuries (partly through
intermediaries like banks).

Even with these heroic assumptions, the Treasury will be obliged to
find another $900 billion to finance the remainder of the $1.8
trillion of debt it is issuing. Washington’s printing presses will
need to work overtime.

Slowing them down will require extraordinary political will. With
government expenditures now running 185 percent of receipts, truly
major changes in both taxes and outlays will be required. A revived
economy can’t come close to bridging that sort of gap.

Legislators will correctly perceive that either raising taxes or
cutting expenditures will threaten their re-election. To avoid this
fate, they can opt for high rates of inflation, which never require a
recorded vote and cannot be attributed to a specific action that any
elected official takes. In fact, John Maynard Keynes long ago laid out
a road map for political survival amid an economic disaster of just
this sort: “By a continuing process of inflation, governments can
confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth
of their citizens.... The process engages all the hidden forces of
economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which
not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”

I want to emphasize that there is nothing evil or destructive in an
increase in debt that is proportional to an increase in income or
assets. As the resources of individuals, corporations and countries
grow, each can handle more debt. The United States remains by far the
most prosperous country on earth, and its debt-carrying capacity will
grow in the future just as it has in the past.

But it was a wise man who said, “All I want to know is where I’m going
to die so I’ll never go there.” We don’t want our country to evolve
into the banana-republic economy described by Keynes.

Our immediate problem is to get our country back on its feet and
flourishing — “whatever it takes” still makes sense. Once recovery is
gained, however, Congress must end the rise in the debt-to-G.D.P.
ratio and keep our growth in obligations in line with our growth in
resources.

Unchecked carbon emissions will likely cause icebergs to melt.
Unchecked greenback emissions will certainly cause the purchasing
power of currency to melt. The dollar’s destiny lies with Congress.

Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a
diversified holding company.

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Friday, August 21, 2009

DG - FW: Stock Ideas: Phillips Carbon Black (Fillip from improving demand environment) [1 Attachment]

 
[Attachment(s) from RoHiT included below]

 

 

From: Sharekhan Fundamental Research [mailto:marketwatch@research.sharekhan.com]
Sent: 21 August 2009 14:40
To: Sharekhan Fundamental Research
Subject: Stock Ideas: Phillips Carbon Black (Fillip from improving demand environment)

 

 

Stock Ideas
[August 21, 2009] Please see the attachment for details

Sharekhan
www.sharekhan.com

Summary of Contents

STOCK IDEAS

Phillips Carbon Black
Cluster: Cannonball
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs185
Current market price: Rs135

Fillip from improving demand environment

Key points 

  • Improving demand environment: Phillips Carbon Black Ltd (PCBL), a leading carbon black manufacturer in India, is among the key beneficiaries of the revival in the domestic tyre industry. Apart from the strong demand from the passenger car segment and the replacement market, the reduced imports of truck bus radial (TBR) tyres from China have also boosted the demand for carbon black from the domestic tyre companies. 
  • Anti-dumping duty to aid profitability: The recent notification regarding the imposition of anti-dumping duty on carbon black imports from China, Russia, Australia and Thailand is expected to improve the pricing power of domestic carbon black producers. Thus, we believe that the domestic manufacturers would be in a better position to protect their margins by passing on the cost increases (if any) on account of the rise in crude oil’s price.
  • Timely expansion of manufacturing capacities: PCBL is expanding its carbon black production capacity at Mundra by 90,000 million tonne (MT), taking its total carbon black capacity to 360,000MT by the end of Q2FY2010. The addition of new capacities is well timed given the improving demand environment. We expect the company’s carbon black sales volume to grow by 17.5% in FY2010, resulting in segmental profits of Rs102.4 crore for the carbon black business in FY2010 as against a loss of Rs35.6 crore in FY2009. 
  • Surplus power sale to boost earnings: PCBL has waste heat recovery (WHR) power project capacities at Baroda (12.5MW), Durgapur (30MW) and Mundra (16MW; scheduled to be commissioned in Q4FY2010). After catering to the captive needs, the company is able to generate substantial revenues from the sale of surplus power in the open market. We estimate the power division would contribute 41% to the total EBIDTA of the company in FY2011.
  • Attractive valuations: In view of the distinct improvement in the demand environment and the incremental earnings from the sale of surplus power, we expect the company to report a significant improvement in its financial performance over the next two years. PCBL is estimated to report a net profit of Rs91.5 crore in FY2011 as against a net loss of Rs64.8 crore in FY2009. Despite the turnaround in its financial performance and healthy return ratios, the stock trades at attractive valuations of 4.2x FY2011 earnings and 4.3x FY2011 EV/EBIDTA. We initiate coverage on PCBL with a Buy recommendation and a price target of Rs185. 

Regards,
The Sharekhan Research Team

myaccount@sharekhan.com

 

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